Pre-Season XC 2010

BOYS Teams - New York State 2010

Bill Meylan (August 2, 2010)

[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class AA ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]

Boys - Potential Top Overall Contenders & Class Contenders

Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available, that team is probably NOT included below ... I ignored last year's modified runners.

Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3200m, 1600m and Steeplechase.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class (because some people are interested) ... A lot can change between early August and November.

... Updated August 5, 2010 ... (Maine-Endwell is Class B)

New York BOYS Teams - Combined Classes

 

 Pre-Season Projection - New York Team Contenders Boys - 2010

       Team                   Score   Section-Class
       ------------------     -----   -------------
  1t   Warwick Valley          170      (09-AA)
  1t   Fayetteville-Manlius    170      (03-AA)
  1t   Shaker                  170      (02-AA)
  4    North Rockland          240      (01-AA)
  5t   Rush-Henrietta          275      (05-AA)
  5t   Saratoga                275      (02-AA)
  7t   Queensbury              310      (02-A )
  7t   Burnt Hills             310      (02-A )
  9t   Shenendehowa            320      (02-AA)
  9t   Chaminade               320      (CHSAA)
  11   Calhoun                 350      (08-AA)
  12t  Honeoye Falls-Lima      360      (05-A )
  12t  Shoreham-Wading River   360      (11-A )
  14   Arlington               370      (01-AA)
  15t  St. Anthonys            400      (CHSAA)
  15t  Brighton                400      (05-A )
  15t  West Genesee            400      (03-AA)
  18   Guilderland             410      (02-AA)
  19t  Cicero-N Syracuse       420      (03-AA)
  19t  Connetquot              420      (11-AA)
  21t  Brewster                450      (01-A )
  21t  Pittsford Suth          450      (05-A )
  21t  Ithaca                  450      (04-AA)
  24   McQuaid                 460      (05-A )
  25   Smithtown               465      (11-AA)
  26t  Monsignor Farrell       480      (CHSAA)
  26t  Vestal                  480      (04-A )
  26t  Suffern                 480      (01-AA)

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2009 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I wanted to).

In General ... Warwick Valley, Fayetteville-Manlius and Shaker are co-favorites entering the 2010 XC season ... Additional comments and information are given below by class.

Class AA - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Warwick Valley          130      (09-AA)
   Fayetteville-Manlius    130      (03-AA)
   Shaker                  130      (02-AA)
   North Rockland          170      (01-AA)
   Saratoga                190      (02-AA)
   Rush-Henrietta          190      (05-AA)
   Shenendehowa            220      (02-AA)
   Calhoun                 230      (08-AA)
   Arlington               240      (01-AA)
   West Genesee            250      (03-AA)
   Guilderland             280      (02-AA)
   Cicero-N Syracuse       290      (03-AA)
   Ithaca                  295      (04-AA)
   Connetquot              295      (11-AA)
   Smithtown               310      (11-AA)
   Suffern                 310      (01-AA)
   Sachem East             310      (11-AA)
   Baldwinsville           310      (03-AA)
   Hilton                  330      (05-AA)
   Liverpool               340      (03-AA)

Not surprising that many of the top teams in NY are Class AA schools ... Fayetteville-Manlius was the top team last year ... Entering the 2010 XC season, I can see reasons for favoring either Warwick Valley, Shaker or Fayetteville-Manlius ... Much will be determined by development of existing runners and "new blood" runners ... So for now, I consider it a "toss-up" with other teams not that far behind (and possibly in contention assuming they have one or two major improvements or "new blood" runners).

Fayetteville-Manlius loses 3 of their top 5 runners from last year (Brendan Farrell, Paul Merriman and Joe Hartnett) ... Andrew Roache, Mark McGurrin, Owen Strong and Ben Thomas form a very good nucleus for the 2010 FM team ... Roache and McGurrin were both affected by the flu last season and are expected to be top runners this coming season which is a projected strength for FM ... Overall relative strength (comparison to other teams) will likely be determined by the #3, #4 and, especially, the #5 runner (and the same can be said for the other teams as well) ... I assume Coach Bill Aris will develop appropriate strength come November.

Warwick Valley finished 4th at States last year and return 6 of their top 7 seven runners from that team (including the top 5), and that alone puts them in contention for the top spot ... The same runners finished a badly beaten 10th at NXN-NY Regional which is not particularly encouraging ... At Federations, Warwick Valley finished 3rd just 2points ahead of Shaker (5 of top 6 underclassmen), and that's one reason Warwick and Shaker rate out evenly entering 2010 ... Tim Luthin is a major plus for Warwick as he is expected to vie for the top individual spot in NY (which helps a team score) ... and Warwick has decent team strength through at least six runners (another plus in the NY comparison) ... One advantage that FM and Shaker appear to have over Warwick entering the season is this - Both teams (especially FM) seem capable of putting two runners head of Warwick's #2, and with the ratings so similar at the following positions (for these and other teams) it makes a difference in the scoring, and creates the "toss-up" for the favorite position.

Shaker returns 5 of their top six runners from 2009 including top runner Mike Libruk ... Shaker finished 4th at Feds (2 pts behind Warwick) and 7th at NXN-NY Regional ... Shaker would be the favorite if pre-season projections were based on recent track performances, but actual XC performance is the primary consideration ... Based on available information, Shaker is definitely one of the co-favorites entering XC 2010.

North Rockland is not far behind the the top three teams ... Northland Rockland was 2nd at States last year, but lose 3 of the top 5 scorers ... However, North Rockland had a reasonably deep squad last year (in terms of making it into my database which has cut-offs) ... Their top three runners match-up decently with other contending teams, and they simply need improvement at the #4 and #5 positions (which is quite possible).

Saratoga has a very good one-two combination (with Sam Place & Kyle Wegner) ... Improvement at the #4 and #5-positions makes them a contending team as well.

Rush-Henrietta is another team with good returning team depth from 2009.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2009
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Warwick Valley
  Tim Luthin            12    9:05     4:13    9:36      184     180 185 184 183 183 184 187 177
  Dan Paez              12     --      4:34     --       170     162 168 171 167 171 171 175 166
  Ian Sullivan          12   10:21     4:33   16:03(5K)  168     160 169 169 167 166 170 171 166
  Paddy Grandinali      11   10:11     4:29   10:03      167     164 163 159 172 171 164 172 174
  Grant Parrelli        10    9:56     4:33y    --       166     162 166 168 164 167 162 166
  Ray Farinella         11     --       --      --       164     160 163 166 166 165 159 158
  Chad Uckermark        12     --       --      --       152     148 148 153 155

Fayetteville-Manlius
  Andrew Roache         12    9:21     4:26     --       182     181 179 177 184 178 182 182
  Mark McGurrin         12     --      4:22     --       181     181 179 180 167 174 185 178
  Owen Strong           12     --      4:39   10:13      167     160 146 171 162 156 166 150
  Ben Thomas            11    9:58     4:36     --       165     161 164 167 161 162 159 167
  Andrew Veilleux       12   10:29      --      --       157     157 149 155 145
  Connor Farrell        10     --       --      --       155     158 145 150 146
  Jules Wellner         11     --       --      --       150     150 142 150 149
  Eric Billinson        12   10:19      --      --       138     135 137 139

Shaker
  Mike Libruk           11   10:05     4:24     --       174     167 175 178 169 171 162 177 164 170 172
  Casey Gilboy          12    9:52     4:29    9:39      170     171 170 167 136 157 149
  Dave Marthy           12    9:49     4:33y    --       168     169 165 169 174 164 167 167 160 159 154
  Kyle Foster           12    9:52     4:31     --       168     164 163 171 153 168 172 174 158 162 163
  Jon Vallecorsa        11    9:36     4:35     --       168     166 161 173 168 164 161 170 159 162 162
  Jeff Heim             12   10:33     4:45     --       157     161 147 154 148
  Adam Schwenzfeier     10   10:13     4:45   10:30      154     147 157 146
  Andrew Olsen          12    --       4:41    --        148     148
  Ryan Recchia          11    9:52     4:35    --        148+    148
  Brian Hickey          11   10:14     4:42   10:28      ---     ---
  Caleb Mellon          10    --       4:34    --        ---     ---
  Christian Delago      11   10:18     4:32    --        ---     ---
  Ethan Hausamann       11    9:50     4:40    --        ---     ---

North Rockland
  James Naglieri        12   9:38      4:31    9:42      179     182 170 179 176 180 178 176 171 176 175
  Nick Bien-Aime        12    --        --     1:56(800) 172     174 165 174 174 173 161 172 159 152 157 162
  Brett Bernard         11   9:54      4:39    9:58      168     157 162 169 170 174 169 172 171 171
  Timothy Mendez        12   9:59      4:22     --       160     162 154 148 163 160 159 152 152
  Alex Andre            12    --       4:30    1:52r(800)159     157 161 156 157 156 148 162
  Dylan Landry          12    --        --     1:56r(800)153     153 153 153

Saratoga
  Sam Place             12   9:21      4:19     --       183     179 183 186 183 167 179 175 177
  Kyle Wegner           12   9:39      4:36     --       178     177 176 180 182 178 170 165 167
  Joe Fairley           12  10:13c     4:41     --       164     154 168 155 165 158 161
  Jonah Williams        11    --       4:44     --       158     161 154 151 149 148
  Jay Navin             9   10:36?     5:07?    --       156     157 143
  Brian Halligan        10    --        --      --       150     150
  Andrew Maguire        10  11:01      5:06     --       146     147 143

Rush-Henrietta
  Nate Kozyra           11   9:32      4:43    9:47      173     173 173 164 165 170 166 171 175 168 158
  Colby Burke           11    --       4:31y    --       171     168 166 178 162 156 171 165 165 166 160
  Alex Raymond          11    --        --     1:59(800) 165     168 158 161 165 160 170 160 164 159 158
  Andrew Sweeney        11    --       4:34     --       160     160 156 162 159 157 157 158 154 157
  Paul Repka            12  10:43      5:01     --       156     151 154 158
  Nick Watson           12    --       4:29y    --       155     155
  Jared Jones           12  10:29      4:53    11:11     154     155 151 155 136
  Sam Brady             12  10:40      4:59     --       145     145 143 144
  Pat Aiken             11  10:36      5:04     --       142     140 141 143 142

Class A - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Queensbury              125      (02-A )
   Burnt Hills             130      (02-A )
   Honeoye Falls-Lima      150      (05-A )
   Shoreham-Wading River   155      (11-A )
   Brighton                160      (05-A )
   Pittsford Sutherland    185      (05-A )
   Brewster                190      (01-A )
   McQuaid                 205      (05-A )
   Vestal                  220      (04-A )
   Grand Island            250      (06-A )
   Somers                  260      (01-A )
   Victor                  270      (05-A )
   Manhasset               280      (08-A )
   Pittsford Mendon        290      (05-A )
   ----------------        ---       -----  ** Maine-Endwell goes back to Class B
   Jamesville Dewitt       300      (03-A )
   Westhampton             310      (11-A )
   Harborfields            320      (11-A )

Class A "might" be a fairly even match-up between Queensbury and Burnt Hills with a number of other teams in reasonably close contention.

Burnt Hills lost 3 of their top 4 runners to graduation, but return top runner Otis Ubriaco ... Queensbury returns 5 of their top 7, and that's their advantage with some decent returning depth for this class ... Burnt Hills needs some improvement at the #4 and #5-positions (and I did give them some credit in that regard).

Honeoye Falls-Lima and Shoreham Wading River move up from Class B and are definitely in contention ... Chris Pohlot has returned to Shoreham Wading River and will likely be a top runner (projected to be 2nd to Otis Ubriaco).

will expect Honeoye this was a pari-mutuel

  

Queensbury Aaron Newell Will Frielinghaus     12   9:55 Nick Underwood Gary Messina Paul Smith Troy Kelly Zach Vanderzee

Burnt Hills Otis Ubriaco Dan Fernandez Dan King Kevin Terbush Joe Chapman Thomas McGuinness     11    -- Buddy Herkenham

Honeoye Falls-Lima Kevin Hoose Cooper Roach Tom Ramsdell Christian Cole Joe Brunett Case McIntyre Dave Muir

Shoreham Wading River Chris Pohlot Kevin Sanders John Lee Evan Purdy Tyler Keys Michael Peraza

Brighton Scott Smolensky Jake Mullen Eric Stahl Will Ronchetti Brian Silverstein     12    -- Andrew Mullen Matthew Tarduno Ken Wilkinson

size="2">More uncertainties seemed to appear the this class ... Queensbury looks like a (small spread between top 5) at a good level, but somehow I at least one "top" runner because I expect Burnt improve at the #4 and #5-positiions ... And somehow I Falls will improve because they usually do ... If betting race, I would have to pass. 3200 1600 Steep XC-Rating XC Ratings by Race 2009 ---- ---- ----- --------- ---------------------------- 12 -- -- -- 165 159 165 167 164 165 169 166 156 159 163 4:41 -- 165 165 167 153 162 165 162 157 160 159 11 10:17 -- -- 164 164 167 158 159 160 157 155 151 160 12 10:04 4:37 -- 161 148 151 159 169 170 163 168 168 11 -- -- -- 158 159 154 148 10 -- 4:51 -- 156 157 151 11 -- -- -- 151 148 137 155 151 154 145 11 9:04 4:12r -- 190 187 194 191 185 178 185 186 177 180 10 -- 4:35r 10:10 164 156 166 160 165 167 162 167 163 160 169 162 11 -- 4:58 -- 158 156 161 152 149 11 -- 4:39 -- 153+ 151 151 153 161 158 153 153 147 147 150 142 10 9:57 -- -- 153+ 151 153 148 149 156 152 153 147 150 157 148 -- -- 148 139 148 139 152 150 154 156 148 10 10:07 4:43 -- 148 143 153 143 149 141 135 143 12 9:58 4:30 9:52 181 182 183 179 173 168 172 11 10:11 4:42 -- 170 170 173 162 159 150 148 12 -- -- -- 158 155 158 161 154 157 148 12 10:27 4:38 2:01(800) 156 153 161 147 148 147 145 11 -- -- -- 152 155 151 140 135 144 145 12 -- -- -- 142 142 142 138 12 -- -- -- 140 139 140 140 12 -- -- -- 184 173 179 189 185 12 -- 4:47 -- 167 169 165 157 167 167 162 167 162 160 11 9:53 4:26 -- 166 168 169 161 162 161 155 155 145 154 10 -- -- -- 155 136 155 156 154 151 154 11 -- 4:34 -- 145 130 150 138 147 12 -- -- -- 145 146 138 142 12 9:32 4:27 -- 174 172 147 179 177 168 173 170 167 12 10:13 4:47 -- 160 151 162 151 164 151 165 11 10:21 4:42 -- 155 138 160 149 153 10 -- -- -- 155 147 156 148 144 162 4:49 10:45 151 150 150 153 149 148 10 -- 4:35 -- 148 145 146 152 142 11 -- 4:34 -- 145 139 145 146 12 10:26 -- -- 144 144 144 141

Class B - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Broadalbin-Perth        115      (02-B )
   East Aurora             120      (06-B )
   Bayport-BluePt          130      (11-B )
   Maine-Endwell           135      (04-B ) ** moves back to Class B  
   Wayne                   135      (05-B )
   Marcellus               140      (03-B )
   New Paltz               140      (09-B )
   Byram Hills             145      (01-B )
   Windsor                 150      (04-B )
   Bishop Gibbons          155      (02-B )
   Pearl River             160      (01-B )
   New Hartford            170      (03-B )
   South Jefferson         180      (03-B )

Honeoye Falls-Lima or Shoreham Wading River would be solid favorites in Class B, but both teams move to Class A.

The scores above should considered a "guess" based on available data .... Class B could be wide-open ... I assume some new and young runners will improve a lot, but for which teams?

Class C - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Holland Patent           95      (03-C )
   Fonda Fultonville       105      (02-C )
   Jordan-Elbridge         115      (03-C )
   Bronxville              120      (01-C )
   Port Jefferson          120      (11-C )
   Berne-Knox-Westerlo     130      (02-C )
   Newark Valley           140      (04-C )
   Fredonia                150      (06-C )
   Gowanda                 160      (06-C )
   Rhinebeck               190      (09-C )
   Sauquoit Valley         200      (03-C )

The Class C Boys is full of certainties as well (and like other classes, created in part by significant graduations).

Holland Patent gets the advantage because they return top runners Cody & Dylan Racha ... and I assume HP will have a decent supporting crew.

Class D - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Geneseo                  70      (05-D )
   Beaver River             70      (03-D )
   Barker                   80      (06-D )
   Seton Catholic           80      (07-D )
   Berlin                   95      (02-D )
   Pavilion                105      (05-D )
   Hawthorne Valley        105      (02-D )
   Norwood-Norfolk         130      (10-D )

The Class D Boys "seems" to be fairly close ... Another class that needs real 2010 XC results

... Maybe that's good!

CHSAA - PSAL - AIS - Boys ... Pre-Season 2010

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Chaminade                65      (CHSAA)
   St. Anthonys             80      (CHSAA)
   Monsignor Farrell       100      (CHSAA)
   St. John Baptist        120      (CHSAA)
   Collegiate              135      (AIS  )
   Regis                   135      (CHSAA)
   St. Peter's             155      (CHSAA)
   St. Joe's-Buffalo       180      (CHSAA)
   St. Joseph Sea          190      (CHSAA)
   Canisius                200      (CHSAA)

Chaminade and St. Anthony's appear to be the top teams in the CHSAA.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2009
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Chaminade
  William Slattery      12   9:25      4:25     --       173     164 169 178 173 179 174 171 169 168 148
  Thomas Awad           11   9:33      4:32     --       171     166 175 167 172 167 168 168 166 157 149
  Matthew Woop          12    --       4:32     --       164     161 163 165 167 169 165 149 140 156
  Dillon Schwartz       12    --       4:49     --       156     159 150 153 152 145 148 146
  Andrew Kirk           12    --       4:49     --       153     158 145 138 147
  Paul Rooney           12    --       4:46     --       152     155 152 147 144 141 144 144
  George Starkie        12    --       4:54     --       143     143

St Anthony's
  Thomas Flynn          12   9:56      4:39     --       172     159 175 173 175 171 170 165
  Brian Smith           11  10:05      4:53    10:02     162     151 162 164 156 166 161 158 146
  Matthew Fortino       12    --       4:43     --       157     135 165 149 157 157 154 148
  Marc Saracino         12    --       4:42     --       157     159 151 155 149
  Frank Segreto         11  10:19      4:31y   10:35     155     158 150 139 146 153
  Kevin Kreider         11    --       4:38     --       154     157 152 140 147 145
  Thomas Diliberto      11   9:33      4:34     --       154+    153 154 143 149 138 129