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 NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2010

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners ... See the "Importance of Speed Ratings in Handicapping NXN Nationals" article for additional information.

Three Team Scores are posted below:
 .. (1) The Overall Morning-Line Team Scores ... a combination of the overall ratings listed below PLUS some manual manipulation (based on historical trends or current information) to try and projection what "bettors" might actual consider a starting point for wagering ... Personally, I might actually bet somewhat differently.
 .. (2) Team Scores Using NXN Regional Speed Ratings
 .. (3) Team Scores Using State Meet Speed Rating (Note - for California, the actual CA State Meet ratings are applied to NXN Region (since it was the CA NXN qualifier) ... CA Section Final speed ratings used for "State" scores below)

In addition to the predicted team scores, I have also listed the projected individual finishing positions for each runner that shows where the team scores came from using overall-combine ratings (Individual Boys ... Individual Girls) ... Viewers have asked about the "Overall-Combined" speed ratings - I make my best approximation from the data I have (sometimes just a "best guess") - See text files of data (worksheets of various team speed ratings by race):
 .... [ Boys Text File of NXN Team Data 2010 ]
  .... [ Girls Text File of NXN Team Data 2010 ]

Initial projections posted on November 29, 2010 ... Updated Dec 2, 2010 (two incorrect North Central WA boys used) ...

.... Actual Results Posted Dec 4, 2010 ....

[ Girls Projections ]

 

 Boys NXN Projected Team Scores 2010 - Arcadia CA & American Forks UT Co-Favorites 
 

  Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Boys                      ACTUAL RESULTS

  1   American Fork        UT      110  (Southwest )        1 Arcadia XC Club              92   (Arcadia CA)
  2   Arcadia              CA      110  (California)        2 Manlius XC Club             135   (Fayetteville-Manlius NY)
  3   York                 IL      205  (Midwest   )        3 Columbus XC Club            165   (Columbus North IN)
  4   Columbus North       IN      205  (Midwest   )        4 Fort Collins XC Club        171   (Fort Collins CO)
  5   North Central        WA      210  (Northwest )        5 Lincroft XC Club            179   (Christian Brothers NJ)
  6   Fort Collins         CO      215  (Southwest )        6 North Spokane XC Club       186   (North Central WA)
  7   Davis                UT      215  (Southwest )        7 Dana Point XC Club          188   (Dana Point CA)
  8   Christian Brothers   NJ      215  (Northeast )        8 American Fork XC Club       195   (American Fork UT)
  9   Dana Hills           CA      235  (California)        9 Wayzata XC Club             266   (Wayzata MN)
  10  Fayetteville-Manlius NY      240  (New York  )       10 Highland Village XC Club    267   (Marcus TX)
  11  The Woodlands        TX      240  (South     )       11 Davis XC Club               300   (Davis UT)
  12  Shaker               NY      250  (New York  )       12 Naperville XC Club          320   (Neuqua Valley IL)
  13  Neuqua Valley        IL      255  (Midwest   )       13 Latham XC Club              325   (Shaker NY
  14  Marcus               TX      270  (South     )       14 Elmhurst XC Club            326   (York IL)
  15  Southlake Carroll    TX      280  (South     )       15 Central Spokane XC Club     339   (Lewis and Clark WA)
  16  Loyola               CA      280  (California)       16 Los Angeles XC Club         359   (Loyola CA)
  17  Pembroke             MA      310  (Northeast )       17 Carroll  XC Club            373   (Southlake Carroll TX)
  18  Midlothian           VA      330  (Southeast )       18 Edina XC Club               396   (Edina MN)
  19  Lewis and Clark      WA      340  (Northwest )       19 Pembroke XC Club            399   (Pembroke MA)
  20  Wayzata              MN      380  (Heartland )       20 The Woodlands XC Club       407   (The Woodlands TX)
  21  Brookwood            GA      400  (Southeast )       21 Chesterfield XC Club        461   (Midlothian VA)
  22  Edina                MN      410  (Heartland )       22 Snellville XC Club          522   (Brookwood GA)


         Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
        NXN Regional Speed Ratings                           State Meet (or Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Arcadia              CA       77    (California)          1   Arcadia              CA       93
 2   American Fork        UT      107    (Southwest )          2   American Fork        UT      103
 3   Fort Collins         CO      207    (Southwest )          3   Christian Brothers   NJ      177
 4   Dana Hills           CA      216    (California)          4   North Central        WA      190
 5   Loyola               CA      221    (California)          5   Shaker               NY      226
 6   Davis                UT      223    (Southwest )          6   York                 IL      234
 7   Fayetteville-Manlius NY      247    (New York  )          7   Columbus North       IN      260
 8   Marcus               TX      263    (South     )          8   Neuqua Valley        IL      266
 9   York                 IL      263    (Midwest   )          9   Dana Hills           CA      267
 10  Columbus North       IN      274    (Midwest   )          10  The Woodlands        TX      284
 11  Christian Brothers   NJ      275    (Northeast )          11  Fayetteville-Manlius NY      290
 12  North Central        WA      297    (Northwest )          12  Midlothian           VA      290
 13  Southlake Carroll    TX      299    (South     )          13  Pembroke             MA      311
 14  The Woodlands        TX      313    (South     )          14  Marcus               TX      313
 15  Shaker               NY      316    (New York  )          15  Loyola               CA      343
 16  Midlothian           VA      324    (Southeast )          16  Southlake Carroll    TX      347
 17  Neuqua Valley        IL      329    (Midwest   )          17  Wayzata              MN      352
 18  Pembroke             MA      348    (Northeast )          18  Lewis and Clark      WA      385
 19  Lewis and Clark      WA      367    (Northwest )          19  Fort Collins         CO      386
 20  Wayzata              MN      395    (Heartland )          20  Davis                UT      416
 21  Brookwood            GA      403    (Southeast )          21  Brookwood            GA      424
 22  Edina                MN      434    (Heartland )          22  Edina                MN      520

Pre-Race Comments ... The all six years of NXN (NTN) demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses (typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The overall morning-line projected team scores above are based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating ... Computer simulation is not possible because I do not have sufficient data for many teams outside NY State.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating) ... SEE the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and State Meet ratings above.

General Team Comments:

Arcadia CA and American Forks UT are co-favorites in my opinion ... Arcadia CA has an advantage in the raw speed rating numbers (they come out on top in both the NXN regional and State Meet scores above) ... However, historically, a majority of CA teams have produced relatively low ratings at Portland Meadows - Last year, American Forks UT finished 8th at NXN while Arcadia CA finished 20th ... During 2010, these two teams have separated themselves from the remainder of the NXN field and that makes them the favorites.

BUT the Portland Meadows course in early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up significantly in projected finish-positions ... WHO will that be in 2010?? (I hope it's the NY teams).

 

 
 

Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ...
    See Boys Text File of NXN Team Data 2010....) 


     Projected Top Individual Team Runners:
-----------------------------------------------
                                                           Overall              NXN Region   State
                                                           Speed                   Speed     Speed
    Name               Grade   School              State   Rating     Region       Rating    Rating
    -----------------  -----   ------------------- -----   ------     ------       ------    ------
1   Craig Lutz           12    Marcus                TX     202.3     South         202.3    202.2
2   Ammar Moussa         12    Arcadia               CA     199.0     California    200.8    197.0 **
3   Elias Gedyon         12    Loyola                CA     197.8     California    197.8    196.0 **
4   Jack Driggs          12    York                  IL     194.5     Midwest       196.3    192.7
5   Kenji Bierig         12    Lewis and Clark       WA     193.0     Northwest     191.6    194.0
6   Sergio Gonzalez      11    Arcadia               CA     191.5     California    194.4    191.3 **
7   Vince Hamilton       12    North Central         WA     191.0     Northwest     191.0    190.2
8   Clayton Young        11    American Fork         UT     190.0     Southwest     189.6    190.0
9   Mike Mazzaccaro      12    Christian Brothers    NJ     190.0     Northeast     188.1    199.3
10  Mark McGurrin        12    Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     188.0     New York      189.0    187.5
11  Ashenafe Richardson  12    American Fork         UT     187.0     Southwest     188.9    189.5
12  Connor Kaddatz       12    Dana Hills            CA     187.0     California    189.0    184.7 **
13  Christian Delago     11    Shaker                NY     186.5     New York      186.5    186.1
14  MacKenzie Morrison   11    American Fork         UT     186.0     Southwest     185.1    187.0
15  Ricardo Campuzano    12    Dana Hills            CA     186.0     California    188.1    184.7 **
16  David Garcia         12    Fort Collins          CO     185.5     Southwest     187.3    182.3
17  Nick Ryan            10    Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     185.5     New York      187.0    183.0
18  Wesley Gallagher     11    Pembroke              MA     185.5     Northeast     184.2    188.2
19  Michael Sublette     11    Columbus North        IN     185.3     Midwest       185.3    187.5
20  Ryan Kelley          12    Pembroke              MA     185.0     Northeast     184.2    185.9
21  Phil Schneider       12    The Woodlands         TX     185.0     South         185.8    183.3

 ** California State Meet ratings under NXN Region, Section ratings under State above



                                                             Overall
                                                              Speed
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Clayton Young          11      American Fork         UT       190.0     Southwest
Ashenafe Richardson    12      American Fork         UT       187.0     Southwest
MacKenzie Morrison     11      American Fork         UT       186.0     Southwest
Austin West            12      American Fork         UT       182.2     Southwest
Derek Day              12      American Fork         UT       181.0     Southwest
Daniel Keller          12      American Fork         UT       170.0     Southwest
Kevin Judd             12      American Fork         UT       167.0     Southwest

Ammar Moussa           12      Arcadia               CA       199.0     California
Sergio Gonzalez        11      Arcadia               CA       191.5     California
Ryan Vargas            11      Arcadia               CA       183.0     California
Eric Garibay           12      Arcadia               CA       182.0     California
Allen Leung            12      Arcadia               CA       181.0     California
Francis Lee            11      Arcadia               CA       172.0     California
William Tsai           12      Arcadia               CA       170.0     California

Morgan Malanoski       11      Brookwood             GA       178.0     Southeast
Jackson Wearn          12      Brookwood             GA       177.5     Southeast
Michael Giuliano       12      Brookwood             GA       176.0     Southeast
Matt Barudin           11      Brookwood             GA       171.0     Southeast
Drew Vander Wood       11      Brookwood             GA       168.0     Southeast
Gabriel Gomez          11      Brookwood             GA       166.5     Southeast
Sean Brennan           12      Brookwood             GA       154.0     Southeast

Mike Mazzaccaro        12      Christian Brothers    NJ       190.0     Northeast
Dan Mykityshyn         12      Christian Brothers    NJ       183.0     Northeast
George Kelly           11      Christian Brothers    NJ       181.7     Northeast
Will Bragg             10      Christian Brothers    NJ       176.5     Northeast
Conrad Lippert         11      Christian Brothers    NJ       173.5     Northeast
Scott Zapcic           11      Christian Brothers    NJ       169.0     Northeast
Aaron Liberatore       10      Christian Brothers    NJ       164.0     Northeast

Michael Sublette       11      Columbus North        IN       185.3     Midwest
Andrew Diehn           11      Columbus North        IN       182.6     Midwest
Christopher Kelsey     11      Columbus North        IN       179.9     Midwest
Gabe Ocasio            12      Columbus North        IN       179.6     Midwest
Andrew Beiriger        12      Columbus North        IN       175.0     Midwest
Jonathan Baldwin       12      Columbus North        IN       167.0     Midwest
David Powell           11      Columbus North        IN       163.0     Midwest

Connor Kaddatz         12      Dana Hills            CA       187.0     California
Ricardo Campuzano      12      Dana Hills            CA       186.0     California
Trevor Lynn            12      Dana Hills            CA       180.5     California
Ethan Lawrence         11      Dana Hills            CA       179.0     California
Daniel Erickson        12      Dana Hills            CA       171.5     California
Brendan Dilloughery    12      Dana Hills            CA       168.0     California
Connor Garcia          11      Dana Hills            CA       166.0     California

Austin Neuner          12      Davis                 UT       184.0     Southwest
Joe White              12      Davis                 UT       179.0     Southwest
Brayden Cromar         10      Davis                 UT       178.0     Southwest
Preston Johnson        10      Davis                 UT       177.0     Southwest
Brad Nye               11      Davis                 UT       176.0     Southwest
Adam Mathias           12      Davis                 UT       169.0     Southwest
Matt Swanson           12      Davis                 UT       168.0     Southwest

Aldis Inde             12      Edina                 MN       182.4     Heartland
Will Burke             10      Edina                 MN       174.5     Heartland
Sam Leese              12      Edina                 MN       172.0     Heartland
Bjorn Thompson         12      Edina                 MN       170.0     Heartland
Hunter Follen          12      Edina                 MN       167.0     Heartland
Joey O'Connell         12      Edina                 MN       166.5     Heartland
Kyle Wagener           12      Edina                 MN       160.5     Heartland

Mark McGurrin          12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       188.0     New York
Nick Ryan              10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       185.5     New York
Andrew Roache          12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       181.5     New York
Andrew Veilleux        12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       172.5     New York
Ben Thomas             11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       170.0     New York
Eric Billinson         12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       169.5     New York
Jules Wellner          11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       167.0     New York

David Garcia           12      Fort Collins          CO       185.5     Southwest
Griffin Hay            11      Fort Collins          CO       182.9     Southwest
Tait Rutherford        11      Fort Collins          CO       181.0     Southwest
John Patterson         11      Fort Collins          CO       174.5     Southwest
Jeff Abbey             11      Fort Collins          CO       173.0     Southwest
Rory Schulte           10      Fort Collins          CO       158.0     Southwest
Seth Knighton          10      Fort Collins          CO       152.0     Southwest

Kenji Bierig           12      Lewis and Clark       WA       193.0     Northwest
Baxter Arguinchona     12      Lewis and Clark       WA       175.5     Northwest
Joel Estelle           11      Lewis and Clark       WA       172.5     Northwest
Isaac Griffith         12      Lewis and Clark       WA       172.0     Northwest
Sumner Goodwin         10      Lewis and Clark       WA       171.5     Northwest
Cory Brandt            12      Lewis and Clark       WA       154.1     Northwest
Davis Mathieu          10      Lewis and Clark       WA       152.2     Northwest

Elias Gedyon           12      Loyola                CA       197.8     California
Jared Jones            11      Loyola                CA       179.0     California
Philip Kostelnik       12      Loyola                CA       176.1     California
Charlie Marquardt      11      Loyola                CA       176.0     California
Ned Trim               11      Loyola                CA       173.0     California
Andrew Bland           11      Loyola                CA       170.0     California
Andrew Verdin          11      Loyola                CA       157.0     California

Craig Lutz             12      Marcus                TX       202.3     South
Sean Canavin           12      Marcus                TX       182.7     South
Matt Mazur             12      Marcus                TX       179.0     South
Ryan Thomas            12      Marcus                TX       174.0     South
Chase Brown            11      Marcus                TX       168.0     South
Jake Miller            10      Marcus                TX       156.0     South
Jacob Babbidge         9       Marcus                TX       153.0     South

Darren Barlow          12      Midlothian            VA       183.5     Southeast
Brayden Burleigh       12      Midlothian            VA       180.5     Southeast
Sean Willard           10      Midlothian            VA       176.0     Southeast
Sam Hush               12      Midlothian            VA       175.0     Southeast
Ryan Peterson          11      Midlothian            VA       170.2     Southeast
Kyle Murray            12      Midlothian            VA       168.5     Southeast
Andrew Gorsuch         10      Midlothian            VA       167.0     Southeast

Taylor Soltys          11      Neuqua Valley         IL       184.0     Midwest
Mark Derrick           11      Neuqua Valley         IL       181.0     Midwest
Josh Ferguson          12      Neuqua Valley         IL       178.2     Midwest
Josh Antonson          12      Neuqua Valley         IL       175.0     Midwest
Vincenzo Dal Pozzo     12      Neuqua Valley         IL       173.5     Midwest
Matt Coyne             12      Neuqua Valley         IL       172.0     Midwest
Hirsh Gaikwad          12      Neuqua Valley         IL       170.0     Midwest

Vince Hamilton         12      North Central         WA       191.0     Northwest
Casey Adams            12      North Central         WA       183.9     Northwest
Keith Williams         10      North Central         WA       178.3     Northwest
Andrew Wordell         12      North Central         WA       176.5     Northwest
Austen Frostad         10      North Central         WA       175.0     Northwest
Kai Wilmot             9       North Central         WA       166.5     Northwest
Nik Taylor             10      North Central         WA       162.0     Northwest


Wesley Gallagher       11      Pembroke              MA       185.5     Northeast
Ryan Kelley            12      Pembroke              MA       185.0     Northeast
Brendan Adams          12      Pembroke              MA       181.0     Northeast
Ryan Moran             12      Pembroke              MA       168.2     Northeast
Joe Vercollone         11      Pembroke              MA       167.3     Northeast
John Valeri            9       Pembroke              MA       162.0     Northeast
Jesse Fine             11      Pembroke              MA       150.0     Northeast

Christian Delago       11      Shaker                NY       186.5     New York
Mike Libruk            11      Shaker                NY       184.6     New York
Jon Vallecorsa         11      Shaker                NY       176.7     New York
Casey Gilboy           12      Shaker                NY       174.8     New York
Ryan Recchia           11      Shaker                NY       169.2     New York
Kyle Foster            12      Shaker                NY       165.7     New York
Adam Schwenzfeier      10      Shaker                NY       162.7     New York

Trevor Gilley          10      Southlake Carroll     TX       180.5     South
Ben Golestan           11      Southlake Carroll     TX       178.6     South
Joe Sansone            10      Southlake Carroll     TX       178.2     South
Jordan Chavez          11      Southlake Carroll     TX       176.5     South
Alex Johansson         11      Southlake Carroll     TX       174.0     South
Nate Sullivan          10      Southlake Carroll     TX       169.0     South
Kyle Scanlan           11      Southlake Carroll     TX       167.5     South

Phil Schneider         12      The Woodlands         TX       185.0     South
Brigham Hedges         10      The Woodlands         TX       182.5     South
Andrew Scheffey        12      The Woodlands         TX       179.2     South
Chris Vargas           11      The Woodlands         TX       174.0     South
Eric Vibrock           11      The Woodlands         TX       173.9     South
Conner Moncrief        11      The Woodlands         TX       171.0     South
Jake Hendrick          11      The Woodlands         TX       164.5     South

Josh Thorson           11      Wayzata               MN       184.0     Heartland
Mark Harries           12      Wayzata               MN       177.2     Heartland
Steven Donahue         12      Wayzata               MN       174.7     Heartland
Adam Moline            12      Wayzata               MN       173.4     Heartland
Joe Meister            11      Wayzata               MN       168.0     Heartland
Nate Heintezman        12      Wayzata               MN       165.0     Heartland
Karl Kabarowski        12      Wayzata               MN       163.0     Heartland

 Jack Driggs           12      York                  IL       194.5     Midwest
 Alex Mimlitz          10      York                  IL       179.1     Midwest
 Ron Hedman            12      York                  IL       179.0     Midwest
 Nick Gornick          12      York                  IL       178.7     Midwest
 Tom Hedman            12      York                  IL       176.3     Midwest
 Scott Milling         10      York                  IL       175.0     Midwest
 Matt Simo             12      York                  IL       174.0     Midwest

 

GIRLS Projections:

 Girlss NXN Projected Team Scores 2010 - Fayetteville-Manlius favored again 
 
   Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Girls                   ACTUAL RESULTS

   1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     50   (New York  )       1 Manlius XC Club              27   (Fayetteville-Manlius NY)
   2   Saugus                CA    110   (California)       2 Kinetic XC Club             104   (Saratoga Springs NY)
   3   Saratoga              NY    145   (New York  )       3 Newhall XC Club             117   (Saugus CA)
   4   Mira Costa            CA    200   (California)       4 Portland XC Club            227   (Jesuit OR)
   5   Great Oak             CA    210   (California)       5 Wilmington XC Club          244   (Tatnall DE)
   6   Tatnall               DE    220   (Southeast )       6 Fort Collins XC Club        247   (Fort Collins CO)
   7   La Costa Canyon       CA    225   (California)       7 Carmel XC Club              260   (Carmel IN)
   8   Palatine              IL    260   (Midwest   )       8 Palatine XC Club            262   (Palatine IL)
   9   Green Hope            NC    285   (Southeast )       9 Glen Head XC Club           267   (North Shore NY)
   10  Jesuit                OR    290   (Northwest )      10 Western Cary XC Club        294   (Green Hope NC)
   11  Bozeman               MT    290   (Northwest )      11 Bozeman XC Club             297   (Bozeman MT)
   12  Fort Collins          CO    300   (Southwest )      12 Eden Praire XC Club         315   (Eden Praire MN)
   13  North Shore           NY    300   (New York  )      13 Temecula  XC Club           325   (Great Oak CA)
   14  Carmel                IN    305   (Midwest   )      14 Manhattan Beach XC Club     326   (Mira Costa CA)
   15  Monarch               CO    315   (Southwest )      15 Louisville XC Club          353   (Monarch CO)
   16  Wheaton-Warrenville S IL    335   (Midwest   )      16 La Costa XC Club            354   (La Costa Canyon CA)
   17  Eden Prairie          MN    350   (Heartland )      17 Des Moines XC Club          385   (Dowling Catholic IA)
   18  Dowling Catholic      IA    360   (Heartland )      18 Wheaton South  XC Club      399   (Wheaton-Warrenville S IL)
   19  Southlake Carroll     TX    390   (South     )      19 The Woodlands XC Club       439   (The Woodlands TX)
   20  Voorhees              NJ    400   (Northeast )      20 Hunterdon XC Club           449   (Voorhees NJ)
   21  The Woodlands         TX    420   (South     )      21 Champlain Valley XC Club    455   (Champlain Valley VT)
   22  Champlain Valley      VT    430   (Northeast )      22 Carroll  XC Club            489   (Southlake Carrol TX)


      Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
     NXN Regional Speed Ratings                              State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       46    (New York  )        1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY       37
 2   Saugus                CA       80    (California)        2   Saugus                CA      130
 3   Saratoga              NY      162    (New York  )        3   Saratoga              NY      138
 4   Mira Costa            CA      165    (California)        4   Mira Costa            CA      216
 5   La Costa Canyon       CA      182    (California)        5   Green Hope            NC      243
 6   Great Oak             CA      194    (California)        6   Jesuit                OR      254
 7   Tatnall               DE      238    (Southeast )        7   Great Oak             CA      256
 8   North Shore           NY      280    (New York  )        8   La Costa Canyon       CA      258
 9   Green Hope            NC      306    (Southeast )        9   Palatine              IL      263
 10  Palatine              IL      317    (Midwest   )        10  Wheaton-Warrenville S IL      277
 11  Eden Prairie          MN      320    (Heartland )        11  Carmel                IN      293
 12  Jesuit                OR      322    (Northwest )        12  Bozeman               MT      311
 13  Carmel                IN      330    (Midwest   )        13  Tatnall               DE      337
 14  Bozeman               MT      335    (Northwest )        14  Southlake Carroll     TX      355
 15  Fort Collins          CO      345    (Southwest )        15  North Shore           NY      358
 16  Dowling Catholic      IA      361    (Heartland )        16  Eden Prairie          MN      362
 17  Monarch               CO      373    (Southwest )        17  The Woodlands         TX      377
 18  Wheaton-Warrenville S IL      375    (Midwest   )        18  Dowling Catholic      IA      385
 19  Voorhees              NJ      410    (Northeast )        19  Monarch               CO      396
 20  The Woodlands         TX      441    (South     )        20  Voorhees              NJ      403
 21  Southlake Carroll     TX      444    (South     )        21  Fort Collins          CO      410
 22  Champlain Valley      VT      447    (Northeast )        22  Champlain Valley      VT      447

Pre-Race Comments ... Repeating from last year - During the pre-season, it looked like Fayetteville-Manlius, Saugus CA and Saratoga NY were the top three teams in the nation and nothing has changed since then .... It also looked like California would be deep and very talented, and indeed, that was the case.

General Team Comments:

As noted for the boys, historically, a majority of CA teams have produced relatively low ratings at Portland Meadows ... That caused me to scale-back some of the California scores in the "Morning-Line" Team Scores above ... The CA teams performed at a high level at the CA State Meet and received two deserving at-large bids to NXN ... I used the actual CA State Meet ratings for the NXN regional team scores above and CA has four of the top six spots (for the "State" scores above, I used their section-final ratings and CA has four of the top eight places there).

Even if I over-rated the CA State Meet and drop the ratings several points, the CA teams still score very well overall ... NXN 2010 should be a good test of the top CA teams to finish well at Portland Meadows  ... I'll be honest, if wagering real money, I'm not betting (or expecting) CA to get four of the top seven places as suggested by the Morning-Line Team Scores above ...But based on performance entering NXN, I believe the morning-line is accurate.

Individual Team Comments:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the four-time defending National Champion and the favorite to win again ... All of the projected scores suggest FM will win with lowest team score ever at NXN ... BUT somehow, I believe that will be very difficult to accomplish (It is really hard to have all five scorers perform at peak levels at NXN ... but FM is FM).

Saugus CA ... Saugus prepared for NXN 2010 much differently than NXN 2009 ... The Saugus scorers ran fewer invitational races in 2010 and prepared for season-ending peak performance ... The Saugus performance at CA States was excellent ... It will be very interesting to see the outcome of their preparation at Portland Meadows.

Saratoga NY (Kinetic RC) ... Like 2009, Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet and finished 2nd at NXN regionals in 2010 ... Saratoga is talented and deep through all seven runners (and then some) ... That depth is really important because Margaret MacDonald is not expected to start due to an IT-band problem and Keelin Hollowood has been sick  ... Saratoga has proven performance & experience at NXN - should Saugus falter at all, Saratoga could easily be second.

Tatnall DE ... Tatnall DE is an experienced NXN team and ran very well at the NXN Southeast Regional ... top runner Haley Pierce will contend for the top individual spot (and start their team score with a very low number).

North Shore NY ... North Shore popped its best team performance ever at NXN NY Regional (season best performances by most runners) ... I was very happy to see it, because I was afraid NY would not get an at-large bid to NXN ... Samantha Nadel has been improving a lot after some early season physical problems - In 2009, Samantha Nadel finished 2nd at the Great American ROC (with a 149 speed rating).

 

 
 

Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overll Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets...
    See Girls Text File of NXN Team Data 2010 ....)



     Projected Top Individual Team Runners:  
----------------------------------------------------
                                                            Overall              NXN Region   State
                                                            Speed                   Speed     Speed
    Name               Grade   School               State   Rating     Region       Rating    Rating
    -----------------  -----   -------------------  -----   ------     ------       ------    ------
1   Jillian Fanning      10    Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     152.0     New York      155.0    158.7
2   Christie Rutledge    11    Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     151.0     New York      152.0    153.6
3   Haley Pierce         11    Tatnall DE             DE     150.5     Southeast     152.3    149.1
4   Savannah Pio         12    Mira Costa             CA     147.5     California    148.1    141.7 **
5   Katie Sischo         11    Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     145.5     New York      149.0    142.7
6   AnnaMarie Maag       11    Jesuit                 OR     145.0     Northwest     144.6    145.3
7   Erin Hooker          10    Fort Collins           CO     143.9     Southwest     143.9    143.3
8   Caroline Hardin      9     Bozeman                MT     143.0     Northwest     141.7    150.0
9   Kelly Lawson         10    La Costa Canyon        CA     143.0     California    147.3    138.0 **
10  Kaylin Mahoney       12    Saugus                 CA     142.0     California    142.4    141.0 **
11  Emma Abrahamson      9     La Costa Canyon        CA     142.0     California    136.5    133.0 **
12  Stephanie Bulder     12    Saugus                 CA     141.7     California    141.7    140.3 **
13  Samantha Nadel       11    North Shore            NY     140.9     New York      140.9    137.5
14  Heather Martin       11    Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     140.0     New York      143.8    140.0
15  Karis Frankian       11    Saugus                 CA     138.5     California    140.9    130.7 **
16  Aryn Foland          12    Mira Costa             CA     138.5     California    141.2    138.3 **
17  Jessica Hilton       12    Great Oak              CA     136.0     California    139.1    132.3 **
18  Courtney Brown       12    Palatine               IL     135.8     Midwest       135.8    139.3
19  Danielle Hernando    12    Saugus                 CA     135.5     California    137.5    130.0 **
20  Katie Johnson        12    Great Oak              CA     135.5     California    138.8    127.3 **
21  Courtney Chapman     12    Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     135.0     New York      132.4    136.4
22  Amanda Borroughs     11    Saratoga               NY     135.0     New York      138.2    134.3
23  Madison Carr         10    Saratoga               NY     134.5     New York      132.6    132.8
24  Brianna Nerud        11    North Shore            NY     134.1     New York      140.3    128.7
25  Jenay Jauregui       11    Saugus                 CA     134.0     California    134.9    129.7 **

 ** California State Meet ratings under NXN Region, Section ratings under State above



                                                             Overall
                                                              Speed
  Name                Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Caroline Hardin        9       Bozeman                MT      143.0     Northwest
Heidi Turner           12      Bozeman                MT      132.0     Northwest
Katie Keith            12      Bozeman                MT      118.3     Northwest
Michelle Cline         11      Bozeman                MT      118.0     Northwest
Andie Creel            9       Bozeman                MT      117.5     Northwest
Katie Stephens         10      Bozeman                MT      105.0     Northwest
Brigid Bradshaw        9       Bozeman                MT      100.0     Northwest

Renee Wellman          11      Carmel                 IN      130.0     Midwest
Sarah Bennett          11      Carmel                 IN      128.5     Midwest
Alex Chitwood          12      Carmel                 IN      124.5     Midwest
Allison Jacobsen       11      Carmel                 IN      121.0     Midwest
Gina Genco             9       Carmel                 IN      115.0     Midwest
Kelcy Welch            9       Carmel                 IN      113.5     Midwest
Lauren Kahre           11      Carmel                 IN      113.0     Midwest

Taylor Spillane        10      Champlain Valley       VT      125.0     Northeast
Summer Spillane        12      Champlain Valley       VT      119.0     Northeast
Aleksey Jordick        10      Champlain Valley       VT      117.0     Northeast
Adrienne Devita        11      Champlain Valley       VT      110.0     Northeast
Julienne Devita        10      Champlain Valley       VT      104.0     Northeast
Sophie Hess            11      Champlain Valley       VT      86.5      Northeast
Claire Trotter         11      Champlain Valley       VT      82.0      Northeast

Tanelle Berard         12      Dowling Catholic       IA      132.5     Heartland
Karissa Schwiezer      9       Dowling Catholic       IA      129.5     Heartland
Vanessa Miller         10      Dowling Catholic       IA      119.0     Heartland
Alexandra Vaughan      11      Dowling Catholic       IA      112.9     Heartland
Diane Hubbell          11      Dowling Catholic       IA      110.0     Heartland
Nicole Svendsen        9       Dowling Catholic       IA      103.5     Heartland
Addie Schumacher       9       Dowling Catholic       IA      102.0     Heartland

Laura Lawton           12      Eden Prairie           MN      127.2     Heartland
Megan Platner          12      Eden Prairie           MN      126.0     Heartland
Alexandra Rudin        12      Eden Prairie           MN      122.0     Heartland
Hannah Jeter           9       Eden Prairie           MN      118.0     Heartland
Carlin Schulz          11      Eden Prairie           MN      117.0     Heartland
Andi Tauer             11      Eden Prairie           MN      111.5     Heartland
Brittany Platt         10      Eden Prairie           MN      111.3     Heartland

Jillian Fanning        10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      152.0     New York
Christie Rutledge      11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      151.0     New York
Katie Sischo           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      145.5     New York
Heather Martin         11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      140.0     New York
Courtney Chapman       12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      135.0     New York
Katie Brislin          10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      127.0     New York
Emily McGurrin         11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      118.1     New York

Erin Hooker            10      Fort Collins           CO      143.9     Southwest
Marci Witczak          12      Fort Collins           CO      128.0     Southwest
Taleah McClintock      10      Fort Collins           CO      115.0     Southwest
Kira Miklos            9       Fort Collins           CO      114.8     Southwest
Audrey Oweimrin        9       Fort Collins           CO      113.0     Southwest
Maddie Staab           10      Fort Collins           CO      108.0     Southwest
Michelle Kramer        9       Fort Collins           CO      107.0     Southwest

Jessica Hilton         12      Great Oak              CA      136.0     California
Katie Johnson          12      Great Oak              CA      135.5     California
Pauline Mandel         11      Great Oak              CA      129.7     California
Shannon Emery          12      Great Oak              CA      125.8     California
Rachel Seymour         10      Great Oak              CA      120.0     California
Alia Bales             12      Great Oak              CA      117.0     California
Ashley Helbig          9       Great Oak              CA      115.0     California

Erica Amatori          11      Green Hope             NC      128.6     Southeast
Jessica Rossabi        11      Green Hope             NC      128.3     Southeast
Maura McDonnell        10      Green Hope             NC      125.5     Southeast
Olivia Enright         12      Green Hope             NC      122.6     Southeast
Lauren Colberg         11      Green Hope             NC      120.5     Southeast
Sarah Alexander        11      Green Hope             NC      105.0     Southeast
Shewit Weldense        11      Green Hope             NC      100.0     Southeast

AnnaMarie Maag         11      Jesuit                 OR      145.0     Northwest
Payton Schutte         11      Jesuit                 OR      132.0     Northwest
Amira Joseph           11      Jesuit                 OR      121.0     Northwest
Adrienne Demaree       12      Jesuit                 OR      118.4     Northwest
Shannon Mahoney        11      Jesuit                 OR      106.6     Northwest
Genevieve Reaume       12      Jesuit                 OR      105.1     Northwest
Olivia Artaiz          12      Jesuit                 OR      100.0     Northwest

Kelly Lawson           10      La Costa Canyon        CA      143.0     California
Emma Abrahamson        9       La Costa Canyon        CA      142.0     California
Shanoah Souza          11      La Costa Canyon        CA      131.5     California
Ellie Abrahamson       10      La Costa Canyon        CA      129.0     California
Janell Steigerwald     12      La Costa Canyon        CA      112.0     California
Kendall Shain          12      La Costa Canyon        CA      99.0      California
Gabi Al-Shamma         12      La Costa Canyon        CA      95.0      California

Savannah Pio           12      Mira Costa             CA      147.5     California
Aryn Foland            12      Mira Costa             CA      138.5     California
Kelli Sugimoto         11      Mira Costa             CA      132.0     California
Vivian Cherrette       11      Mira Costa             CA      125.0     California
Shannon Hagedorn       12      Mira Costa             CA      119.0     California
Jenna Tong             11      Mira Costa             CA      112.5     California
Sara Locke-Henders     10      Mira Costa             CA      100.0     California

Claire Green           9       Monarch                CO      132.5     Southwest
Maddie Alm             12      Monarch                CO      122.0     Southwest
Mariel Fulton          12      Monarch                CO      121.5     Southwest
Taylor Floming         10      Monarch                CO      118.0     Southwest
Kaitlyn Benner         9       Monarch                CO      110.0     Southwest
Mattie Stanford        12      Monarch                CO      99.0      Southwest
Lauren Elvig           12      Monarch                CO      98.0      Southwest

Samantha Nadel         11      North Shore            NY      140.9     New York
Brianna Nerud          11      North Shore            NY      134.1     New York
Jessica Donohue        10      North Shore            NY      132.0     New York
Elizabeth Caldwell     10      North Shore            NY      116.5     New York
Molly Reilly           9       North Shore            NY      100.5     New York
Danielle Muoio         12      North Shore            NY      90.0      New York
Emily Osman            12      North Shore            NY      86.0      New York

Courtney Brown         12      Palatine               IL      135.8     Midwest
Tess Wasowicz          10      Palatine               IL      128.0     Midwest
Sarah McIntosh         12      Palatine               IL      122.5     Midwest
Emily Schulte          11      Palatine               IL      121.0     Midwest
Becca Sund             12      Palatine               IL      114.0     Midwest
Jessica Lincoln        9       Palatine               IL      113.9     Midwest
Ellen Smith            11      Palatine               IL      110.1     Midwest

Amanda Borroughs       11      Saratoga               NY      135.0     New York
Madison Carr           10      Saratoga               NY      134.5     New York
Sydney King            12      Saratoga               NY      132.0     New York
Keelin Hollowood       11      Saratoga               NY      131.0     New York
Molly Pezzulo          12      Saratoga               NY      129.6     New York
Estela Smith           8       Saratoga               NY      128.0     New York
Taylor Driscoll        10      Saratoga               NY      122.0     New York

Kaylin Mahoney         12      Saugus                 CA      142.0     California
Stephanie Bulder       12      Saugus                 CA      141.7     California
Karis Frankian         11      Saugus                 CA      138.5     California
Danielle Hernando      12      Saugus                 CA      135.5     California
Jenay Jauregui         11      Saugus                 CA      134.0     California
Alex Hampton           12      Saugus                 CA      131.0     California
Merissa Kado           12      Saugus                 CA      126.0     California

Shelby Chapin          10      Southlake Carroll      TX      124.0     South
Rachel Harper          11      Southlake Carroll      TX      120.1     South
Courtney Kriegshauser  10      Southlake Carroll      TX      120.0     South
Sarah Roe              11      Southlake Carroll      TX      117.5     South
Morgan Baulier         10      Southlake Carroll      TX      110.5     South
Felice Johnson         11      Southlake Carroll      TX      105.0     South
Molly Tucker           9       Southlake Carroll      TX      100.0     South

Haley Pierce           11      Tatnall DE             DE      150.5     Southeast
Reagan Anderson        10      Tatnall DE             DE      127.0     Southeast
Lauren Blackwell       12      Tatnall DE             DE      124.0     Southeast
Kieran Hanrahan        8       Tatnall DE             DE      123.5     Southeast
Julie Williams         10      Tatnall DE             DE      118.0     Southeast
Cara Bottorff          12      Tatnall DE             DE      107.0     Southeast
Lindsay Voltz          10      Tatnall DE             DE      100.0     Southeast

Madi McLellan          9       The Woodlands          TX      126.0     South
Katie Willard          10      The Woodlands          TX      121.0     South
Hannah Novelli         11      The Woodlands          TX      119.5     South
Ashley Guidot          10      The Woodlands          TX      112.6     South
Margo Lyons            12      The Woodlands          TX      108.8     South
Colleen Murray         12      The Woodlands          TX      101.0     South
Anna Lyons             9       The Woodlands          TX      100.0     South

Nisa Cicitta           10      Voorhees               NJ      131.8     Northeast
Clarissa Modde         9       Voorhees               NJ      120.1     Northeast
Kristen Erickson       10      Voorhees               NJ      115.5     Northeast
Shannon Carney         10      Voorhees               NJ      114.0     Northeast
Brigid McGill          10      Voorhees               NJ      106.0     Northeast
Erin Seiffert          10      Voorhees               NJ      103.0     Northeast
Kathryn Hahn           12      Voorhees               NJ      96.0      Northeast

Lauren Mordini         11      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      128.5     Midwest
McKenna Kiple          10      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      127.0     Midwest
Mikayla Kightlinger    10      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      126.0     Midwest
Hope Schmelzle         10      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      118.5     Midwest
Clare Kelly            11      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      114.0     Midwest
Hana Lobsinger         11      Wheaton-Warrenville S  IL      102.0     Midwest