| Federation Championship 2009 - Predictions |
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 18, 2009 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... |
Actual Scores added November 22, 2009 ...
[ Girls Prediction ]
| BOYS Federation Champ 2009 ... North Rockland the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 North Rockland 125 (01-AA) North Rockland 132
2 Liverpool 145 (03-AA) Burnt Hills 169
3 Burnt Hills 150 (02-A ) Warwick Valley 192
4 Shaker 175 (02-AA) Shaker 194
5 Chaminade 226 (CHSAA) Chaminade 198
6 Warwick Valley 227 (09-AA) Shenendehowa 208
7 St. Anthony's 229 (CHSAA) Liverpool 209
8 Shenendehowa 229 (02-AA) Rush-Henrietta 226
9 Port Washington 265 (08-AA) Baldwinsville 268
10 Rush-Henrietta 285 (05-AA) St. Anthony's 273
11 Washingtonville 330 (09-AA) Arlington 278
12 Bayport-Blue Pt 335 (11-B ) Port Washington 292
13 Baldwinsville 340 (03-AA) Holland Patent 319
14 Holland Patent 360 (03-C ) West Genesee 322
15 Brewster 360 (01-A ) Bayport-Blue Point 347
16 West Genesee 360 (03-AA) Cicero-North Syracuse 350
17 Arlington 400 (01-AA) Washingtonville 380
18 Cicero-North Syracuse 453 (03-AA) Brewster 383
19 Collegiate 500 (AIS ) McKee/S.I. Tech 516
20 Brooklyn Tech 514 (PSAL ) Brooklyn Tech 536
21 Curtis 524 (PSAL ) Collegiate 576
22 Monsignor Farrell 543 (CHSAA) Fordham Prep 583
23 St. John Bapt 576 (CHSAA) Bronx Science 616
24 McKee/Staten 604 (PSAL ) Monsignor Farrell 617
25 Fordham Prep 611 (CHSAA) St. John The Baptist 617
26 Bronx HS Sci 660 (PSAL ) Canisius 652
27 Canisius 710 (CHSAA) Curtis 751
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Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races. North Rockland is the favorite ... North Rockland is very familiar with Bowdoin Park and race well there. Liverpool and Burnt Hills appear close ... Liverpool has at least two runners recovering from the flu (top runner Colin Savage raced at sectionals while sick and finished 3rd for the team while Nick Hull was unable to run sectionals); the score above assumes they can run effectively ... Burnt Hills was 4th in the State Meet merge, but 2nd of the teams competing at Feds (FM and Honeoye Falls declined the Fed invitation). Shaker beat Burnt Hills in the merge at Section2 sectionals ... With a great performance, Shaker is not that far out of the top spot. I don't see much that separates Chaminade, Warwick Valley, St. Anthony's and Shenendehowa ... and Port Washington raced very well at the State Meet (beating Shenendehowa). The teams in the 11th through the 16th positions above have a fair amount a variability (inconsistencies, etc.) ... Some appear capable of moving up significantly (e.g. Baldwinsville with a great team performance) ... The predicted places are very uncertain. Individual Race ... Nick Hughes is the top rated runner in NY (he had the fastest time at the State Meet and won impressively), but he has some very serious competition for the win ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) was 2nd to Hughes at States ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) was 3rd in the Class AA race at States ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) pulled away impressively at States to win the Class A race ... Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) finished 2nd at Feds last year, and had a good battle with Brandon Freyer (Pawling) at States (Freyer is not entered at Feds) ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic) impressively won the Class D race at States, and popped a very good race at Bowdoin Park earlier in the season. Eddie Owens (Packer Collegiate) could be the surprise in this race ... Eddie Owens beat Brandon Freyer earlier in the season at Somers and Owens won a division of the Section 1 Coaches Invite at Bowdoin ... He easily won the 3.5-mile NYSAIS Championship after being mis-directed off the course and losing 20-25 seconds (his estimated speed rating was still about 178 despite the lost time) ... Eddie Owens then ran a 16:09 time at a NYRR 5K at Van Cortlandt Park (same course as the PSAL) (the estimated speed rating may be in the upper 180s).
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| GIRLS Federation Champ 2009 ... Saratoga the favorite |
Prediction Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Saratoga 58 (02-AA) Saratoga 63
2 Shenendehowa 82 (02-AA) Shenendehowa 67
3 Queensbury 105 (02-A ) Queensbury 148
4 East Aurora 149 (06-B ) Arlington 179
5 North Shore 200 (08-B ) East Aurora 196
6 Arlington 205 (01-AA) Ward Melville 237
7 Northport 215 (11-AA) Northport 241
8 North Rockland 225 (01-AA) Pittsford Mendon 252
9 Ward Melville 250 (11-AA) Warwick Valley 277
10 Warwick Valley 269 (09-AA) St. John The Baptist 288
11 Pittsford Mendon 288 (05-A ) North Shore 295
12 St. John the Baptist 310 (CHSAA) Tappan Zee 296
13 Smithtown 311 (11-AA) Smithtown 296
14 Pearl River 325 (01-B ) Pearl River 321
15 Tappan Zee 365 (01-A ) North Rockland 327
16 Bronxville 375 (01-C ) Ithaca 350
17 Ithaca 392 (04-AA) Bronxville 383
18 St. John Villa 483 (CHSAA) HS Health Pro 486
19 Sacred Heart 594 (CHSAA) St. John Villa 552
20 Kellenberg 597 (CHSAA) Kellenberg 554
21 St. Anthony's 618 (CHSAA) St. Anthony's 576
22 HS Health Pro 653 (PSAL ) Sacred Heart 640
23 Hackley 665 (AIS ) Curtis 659
24 Curtis 697 (PSAL ) Hackley School 677
25 Nardin Academy 748 (CHSAA) Port Richmond 704
26 Tottenville 749 (PSAL ) Nardin Academy 717
27 Port Richmond 754 (PSAL ) Tottenville 730
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Pre-Race Analysis ... The race is missing some very good NY teams (such as Fayetteville-Manlius, Monroe-Woodbury, Burnt Hills, Honeoye Fall-Lima, and Greenwich) ... BUT this is still a very high quality race and a nice prize for the winning team. Saratoga is deep and talented ... their depth through all seven runners is a big advantage. Queensbury and Shenedehowa appear fairly evenly-matched, but Shenendehowa appears stronger at the #5 position with a good team performance. There is a bit of scoring gap to East Aurora which did not exist in the State merge (which was Queensbury 184, East Aurora 191); performance at the #4 and #5 positions really matters. North Shore is projected at the 5th-position (Brianna Welch returned to racing at States and ran quite decently despite her injuries and time-away from training) ... Several other teams are very close (Arlington, Northport and North Rockland). Individual Race ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) is the top-rated runner in NY (and one of the top three in the nation) ... Aisling Cuffe won the State Class A race easily and remarkably fast ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) is the defending Federation champion from 2007 and 2008 ... Unfortunately, Emily Lipari was unable to compete at States due to a lower leg (ankle) injury, BUT she is listed in the entries ... I do not know her status (hopefully she is healthy which could set-up a great race with Cuffe). Several top runners that are closely rated include Keelin Hollowood (Saratoga), Danielle Winslow (Queensbury), Brittany Winslow (Queensbury), Lizzie Predmore (Shen), Nicole Irving (Shen), Samantha Nadel (North Shore), and Megan Young (Nanuet).
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