| Team Predictions - NXN New York Qualifier 2009 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 28, 2008
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 25, 2009 ...... |
| NOTE ... Sorry - I do not have time to adequately predict the NXN Northeast Qualifier this year ... Traveling and real job responsibilities make it difficult to collect necessary background information on some of the Northeast teams with the entries not available until Wednesday (and for my purposes, late Friday afternoon is too late to post predictions) ... and the New York predictions below were done very quickly (but I do not think it makes much difference). |
Entries & Other Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - FM & North Rockland favored to auto-qualify |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 110 03-AA
2 North Rockland 120 01-AA
3 Burnt Hills 155 02-A
4 Liverpool 165 03-AA
5 Honeoye Falls-Lima 185 05-B
6 Warwick Valley 220 09-AA
7 Shaker 220 02-AA
8 McQuaid 220 05-A
9 Chaminade 235 CHS
10 Shenendehowa 235 02-AA
11 Calhoun 250 08-A
12 St. Anthony's 255 CHS
13 Rush-Henrietta 265 05-AA
14 Baldwinsville 270 03-AA
15 Port Washington 285 08-AA
16 Washingtonville 340 09-AA
17 Arlington 380 01-AA
18 Hilton 495 05-AA
19 Massapequa 505 08-AA
20 East Aurora 560 06-B
21 Monsignor Farrell 565 CHS
22 Tully 685 03-C
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Pre-Race Analysis: Team Race ... The computer scoring varies "all over place" with respect to exact finishing positions ... There is a fair amount of "inconsistencies" amongst these teams (sickness, injuries and bad luck seem to be involved) ... Fayetteville-Manlius and North Rockland are the clear favorites for top two automatic-qualifying spots, and how well the #4 and #5 runners perform generally determines which team wins ... The same analysis applied at the State Class AA race (FM's #5 runner (Joe Hartnett) had a PR performance to help FM win). Burnt Hills, Liverpool and Honeoye Falls-Lima are reasonably close for the next two spots ... Honeoye Falls-Lima skipped the Federation Meet (that rest from travel and competition may help them, but who knows??) ... Burnt Hills finished 2nd to North Rockland at Feds and could get much closer with some big performances at the #3 through #5 positions ... Liverpool has been affected by sickness (Colin Savage, Nick Hull) and another top five runner (Chris Clemons) lost a shoe at Feds; Liverpool could potentially close the gap quite a bit if everything goes well for a change. The teams in 6th through 10th position above are close, and the exact finishing spots are uncertain. Individual Race ... The top finishers at Federations were Max Straneva (Chenango Valley), Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills), Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville), Nick Hughes (North Rockland), Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) and Caleb Edmonds (Cooperstown) ... Brandon Freyer (Pawling) did not race at Feds, but is s serious challenger to win the race ... Alex Deir (Honeoye Falls), Steve Mangan (Honeoye Falls), and Brandon Farrell (FM) should be close as well. Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) appears to be peaking nicely and races well at Bowdoin (he qualified for NXN last year); he should be considered the favorite ... Caleb Edmonds (Cooperstown) raced sick (with flu) at sectionals and was still feeling the effects at States which hampered his performance, but Edmonds raced much better at Federations finishing 6th overall.
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| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Fayetteville-Manlius 30 03-AA
2 Saratoga 78 02-AA
3 Shenendehowa 98 02-AA
4 Queensbury 125 02-A
5 Monroe-Woodbury 139 09-AA
6 Burnt Hills 183 02-A
7 East Aurora 184 06-B
8 Honeoye Falls-Lima 185 05-B
9 Arlington 195 01-AA
10 Greenwich 195 02-D
11 North Shore 230 08-B
12 Pearl River 315 01-B
13 Hilton 344 05-AA
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the solid
favorite (no surprise) ... Theoretically, FM could score 15 (but
that will be very difficult against this field) ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals). Saratoga and Shenendehowa finished 1st and 2nd at Federations (separated by only 4 points) and this race could go either way ... Saratoga has an overall depth advantage which helps in the computer simulations. Queensbury and Monroe-Woodbury are very close in the projections ... Monroe-Woodbury skipped Federations and Queensbury finished 3rd at Federations ... Last year, Queensbury finished 4th at the NXN-NY Regional and then finished 5th at Nationals. Burnt Hills, East Aurora, Honeoye Falls-Lima, Arlington and Greenwich are close (flip a coin to determine positions) ... Burnt Hills will be missing a top runner (Molly Pezzulo is running at Footlocker) ... Arlington is basically racing at home (they could easily move up) ... Honeoye Falls-Lima and Greenwich skipped Feds. Individual Race ... Courtney Chapman (FM) is favored to be the top finisher in the race (she won both sectionals and States) ... If the State Class AA race is any indication, the other FM girls will be close (Molly Malone, Jillian Fanning, Mackenzie Carter and Katie Sischo). Federation winner Aisling Cuffe is racing at Footlocker ... From Feds, the next top finishers racing at NXN are Shaylyn Tuite (Pittsford Mendon), Lizzie Predmore (Shen), Brittany Winslow (Queensbury), Danielle Winslow (Queensbury), and Nicole Irving (Shen).
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