Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2008 XC season into 2009 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available, that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3000m, 1500m, 1-Mile and Steeplechase.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... This year I posted
scores by individual class (because some people were interested
)
... A lot can change between late July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Team Contenders Girls - 2009
Team Score Section-Class
------------------ ----- -------------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 50 (03-AA)
2 Saratoga 95 (02-AA)
3 Shenendehowa 140 (02-AA)
4 Queensbury 190 (02-A )
5 North Shore 195 (08-B )
6 Burnt Hills 215 (02-A )
7 Monroe-Woodbury 250 (09-AA)
8 Pearl River 340 (01-B )
9 Greenwich 355 (02-D )
10 Ward Melville 375 (11-AA)
11 Bronxville 385 (510) (01-C ) **
12 Honeoye Falls-Lima 390 (05-B )
13 Northport 390 (11-AA)
14 East Aurora 405 (06-B )
15 Shaker 410 (02-AA)
16 Warwick Valley 420 ** (09-AA)
17 Cicero-North Syracuse 435 ** (03-AA)
18 Cornwall 440 (09-A )
19 Pittsford Mendon 445 (05-A )
20 Canandaigua 450 (05-A )
21 Guilderland 460 (02-AA)
22 St. John the Baptist 485 (CHSAA)
23 Valley Central 500 (09-AA)
24 St. Anthony's 505 (CHSAA)
25 North Rockland 520 (01-AA)
26 Arlington 540 (01-AA)
27 Washingtonville 540 (09-AA)
28 Bay Shore 560 (11-AA)
** Bronxville - assumes Mary Cain runs XC (parentheses number excludes Mary Cain)
** Warwick Valley - assumes Lillian Greibesland runs
** CNS - assumes all runners compete XC
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2008 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I wanted to).
Teams with
** above
... notes some of the uncertainty involved ... Warwick Valley -
top runner Lillian Greibesland ruptured her achilles tendon last XC
season and has not competed since (I wanted to see their approximate
position if she returns) ... Cicero-North Syracuse - I've been
informed a few runners may be skipping XC, but I'm ignoring that for
now. In recent years, CNS has been one of the "bubble teams" when
picking the At-Large selections for the Federation Meet, and they were
not selected due to the quality in NY as a whole. This year,
CNS has a nice influx of talented young runners plus good
experienced runners and would very likely be the second best team in
Section 3 (behind FM) and a legitimate Federation selection. If
CNS is not at full strength, the Tully girls might be
second-best in Section 3, so...
.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite entering the 2009 XC season ... FM is the three-time defending National champion and appears to be just as strong this season ... There could be strong challenges from Saratoga and Shenendehowa, and possibly Queensbury, North Shore, Burnt Hills and others ... North Shore presents the biggest uncertainty in pre-season projection because their projection includes major modifications based on track times (and the projection above could have significant plus and minus variations) ... Additional information is given below by class.
.
... Both teams will make Federations and both have always raced at Feds
(which may give FM an advantage later on if FM skips
Feds).
).