Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2008 XC season into 2009 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available, that team is probably NOT included below ... I ignored last year's modified runners.

Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary  ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3200m, 1600m  and Steeplechase.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... This year I posted scores by individual class (because some people were interested) ... A lot can change between late July and November.

 

 Pre-Season Projection - New York Team Contenders Boys - 2009

       Team                   Score   Section-Class
       ------------------     -----   -------------
  1    Fayetteville-Manlius     95      (03-AA)
  2    Liverpool               240      (03-AA)
  3    Shenendehowa            270      (02-AA)
  4    Burnt Hills             290      (02-A )
  5    North Rockland          350      (01-AA)
  6    Shaker                  370      (02-AA)
  7    Calhoun                 390      (08-A )
  8t   Baldwinsville           405      (03-AA)
  8t   Chaminade               405      (CHSAA)
  8t   Warwick Valley          405      (09-AA)
  11   Washingtonville         420      (09-AA)
  12   St. Anthony's           425      (CHSAA)
  13   Rush-Henrietta          440      (05-AA)
  14t  Honeoye Falls-Lima      475      (05-B )
  14t  Saratoga                475      (02-AA)
  16   Queensbury              485      (02-A )
  17   Monroe-Woodbury         495      (09-AA)
  18   Suffern                 500      (01-AA)
  19   Jamesville Dewitt       520      (03-A )
  20t  Sachem East             525      (11-AA)
  20t  Fox Lane                525      (01-A )
  22t  Cicero-North Syracuse   545      (03-AA)
  22t  West Genesee            545      (03-AA)
  22t  Brewster                545      (01-A )
  25t  Brighton                550      (05-A )
  25t  Niskayuna               550      (02-A )
  27   McQuaid                 565      (05-A )
  28   Jordan-Elbridge         580      (03-C )
  29   Holland Patent          585      (03-C )
  30   Clarence                605      (06-AA)
  31   Pittsford Mendon        610      (05-A )
  32   East Aurora             640      (06-B )
  33   Windsor                 680      (04-B )
  34   Shoreham-Wading River   685      (11-B )
  35t  McKee/Staten            710      (PSAL )
  35t  Monsignor Farrell       710      (CHSAA)
  38   Smithtown               730      (11-AA)

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2008 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because I wanted to).

In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite entering the 2009 XC season ... Liverpool, Shenendehowa and Burnt Hills appear to be the next three top teams ... Additional comments and information are given below by class.

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Fayetteville-Manlius     45      (03-AA)
   Liverpool               140      (03-AA)
   Shenendehowa            160      (02-AA)
   North Rockland          195      (01-AA)
   Shaker                  205      (02-AA)
   Baldwinsville           220      (03-AA)
   Warwick                 220      (09-AA)
   Washingtonville         225      (09-AA)
   Rush-Henrietta          240      (05-AA)
   Saratoga                255      (02-AA)
   Monroe-Woodbury         260      (09-AA)
   Suffern                 260      (01-AA)
   Sachem East             280      (11-AA)
   CNS                     290      (03-AA)
   West Genesee            290      (03-AA)
   Clarence                315      (06-AA)
   Smithtown               395      (11-AA)
   Massapequa              420      (08-AA)
   Corning                 420      (04-AA)		

Fayetteville-Manlius enters 2009 as the top team in NY and one of the serious contenders for the National Championship ... The FM projections are based solely on last year's XC performances ... Alex Hatz was sensational in track, but he was already a State XC champion and one of the top harriers nationally ... Paul Merriman did not run track and Brendan Farrell skipped most of the outdoor track season after running indoors ... Andrew Roache ran 9:53 indoors (3200m), and then only one outdoor meet as far as I can tell ... Mark McGurrin ran only two indoor meets at short distances ... Owen Strong ran a very nice 3200m (10:06.55) at the Oneida Invitational in May which correlates (on average) to an XC speed rating in the mid-to-upper 160s (but I ignored that).

Questions do exist concerning Fayetteville-Manlius ... for example, "How well will Paul Merriman perform after a prolonged absence from competition??" ... Race results will answer this and other questions ... I'm guessing the FM boys will initially race at the Chittenango Invitational on Sept 19th (this is the sectional championship course ... last year, the FM boys sent a full-team to this race while the FM girls sent a partial team) ... I'm guessing Coach Bill Aris would like to win both the boy's and girl's races at NXN, with the season being preparatory for that goal.

Here's a Shocking Revelation: ... Liverpool would love to beat Fayetteville-Manlius ... Although both teams are members of the CNYCL League (13 teams total), they compete in separate divisions with separate league championship races (at least, that's what the CNYCL did last year) ... I suspect Liverpool and Fayetteville-Manlius will face each other head-to-head at the Manhattan Championship race (Oct 10) and the sectional championship race (Nov 7) ... Only one of them will qualify from sectionals to compete at States.

Liverpool enters the 2009 season on a "track high" ... Liverpool won the NY State 4x800 Relay and set a Section 3 Record in the process (7:44.46 which broke FM's record set by four guys named Gruenewald, Kimple, Herron and King who were so-so XC runners) ... Can Liverpool's success at the 4x800 translate to XC?? ... That question can only be answered with XC results ... At this pre-season time, Liverpool needs to demonstrate some significant XC improvement over last year's results to be competitive with FM ... However, I suspect Liverpool believes they can challenge FM, and that's more than half the battle ... Combine that with a group of really talented runners (which Liverpool has), and this could be very interesting to watch.

Despite major losses to graduation, Shenendehowa could be a very good team ... Shenendehowa had a deep squad last year, and that's a big advantage when re-stocking after losses ... They have a top runner (Dan Harris) which is a major criteria in identifying top teams and they have team depth (one or more good #5 runners) which is another criteria ... and Shenendehowa always seems to be good.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2008
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Fayetteville Manlius
  Alex Hatz             12    9:09     4:06     ---      195     195 195 196 192 193 189 189
  Paul Merriman         12     --       --      ---      188     189 190 180 183 182 179
  Brendan Farrell       12    9:45     4:30     ---      183     181 185 178 187 179 168 151
  Andrew Roache         11    9:53      --      ---      174     174 175 175 176 161 169 167 170 172
  Mark McGurrin         11     --       --      ---      171     167 175 168 170 167 156 163 164 162
  Owen Strong           11   10:06      --     10:16     160     151 159 162 162 156 155
  Joe Hartnett          12     --      4:43     ---      156     153 153 135 160 165 157 161 160 153

Liverpool
  Colin Savage          12    9:57     4:21     ---      182     184 179 178 182 180 179 172
  Alex Wilke            12   10:06     4:25     ---      174     172 173 175 174 168 169
  Anthony Brais         12    9:59     4:47     ---      165     158 163 168 165 163 163
  Mychal Ostuni         12   10:35     4:54    10:47     165     164 164 166 159 162
  Nick Hull             12   10:01      --      ---      161     158 163 161 161 152 156 151
  Chris Clemons         12     --       --      ---      154     148 152 157 156 147 153 153
  Brandon Rudd          11     --       --     11:18     144     145 142 143 144 141 145

Shenedehowa
  Dan Harris            12    9:12     4:20y    ---      185     182 185 183 187 184 189 185 177 180
  Sam Kimmey            12     --      4:45    10:31     168     171 162 165 161 152
  Ian Dorset            11   10:05      --      ---      164     157 164 167 168 165 161 150 158
  Chris Shartrand       11   10:30      --     10:37     163     162 154 156 174 164 162 159 158 158
  Fred Hance            10     --      4:34y    ---      161     158 162
  Mitch Todorov         12   10:07     4:39y    ---      160     158 161 155 161 154 157
  Kevin Liang           12   10:30      --      ---      156     157 154 154 149

North Rockland
  Nick Hughes           12    9:41      --      9:47     183     175 182 188 182 182 180 181 176 173 170
  Charlie Lagos         12   10:04     4:47     ---      169     163 169 171 171 172 166 164 159
  James Naglieri        11    9:43     4:47     9:43     167     163 162 170 169 172 164 164 154
  Kevin Brophy          12   10:21     4:52     ---      159     148 156 165 161 160 155 155 147
  Brett Bernard         10   10:20     4:42    10:33     154     151 155 158 151 146 146 138
  Brendan Collins       11    --        --      ---      152     144 152 155 155 150 137 152 143

Shaker
  Ryan Egan             12    9:42     4:29     ---      170     162 177 160 171 173 163 147 161 153
  Casey Gilboy          11    9:51     4:31     9:50     167     166 170 160 156
  Mike Libruk           10   10:09     4:39     ---      167     167 160 169 155
  Eric Young            12   10:10     4:39     ---      160     150 163 147 163 165 160 155 148
  Dave Marthy           11   10:28     4:52     ---      153     152 156 143 138
  Kyle Foster           11   10:04     4:39     ---      153     154 151 153 152 149 149 144
  Ryan Recchila         10   10:32      --      ---      150     150

Baldwinsville
  Shaun Thompson        11    9:34     4:37     9:47     183     175 181 185 180 182 186 177 187 180
  Adam Pacheck          12    9:50     4:35     ---      172     170 168 172 165 171 176 173
  Chris Wicks           12     --       --      ---      163     158 166 165 142 163 133 158
  Nathan McCabe         12    9:45     4:30     ---      159     151 158 159 164 159 155
  Ethan Pacheck         11     --       --      ---      152     131 150 154 148 137 140 139 134
  Connor Martin         10     --       --      ---      147     140 149 143

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Burnt Hills             100      (02-A)
   Calhoun                 120      (08-A)
   Queensbury              170      (02-A)
   Jamesville Dewitt       180      (03-A)
   Brewster                185      (01-A)
   Brighton                185      (05-A)
   Niskayuna               195      (02-A)
   McQuaid                 200      (05-A)
   Fox Lane                200      (01-A)
   Pittsford Mendon        225      (05-A)
   Horace Greeley          285      (01-A)
   Vestal                  290      (04-A)
   HHH West                310      (11-A)
   Greece Arcadia          335      (05-A)
   Somers                  345      (01-A)
   Union Endicott          350      (04-A)
   Cornwall                375      (09-A)
   Harborfields            375      (11-A)
   Pittsford Sutherland    390      (05-A)		

Calhoun finished 2nd to Wantagh in the Section 8 State Qualifier last year (which is a combined class race) and Calhoun returns their top three runner plus others ... both teams were Class A, so only Wantagh advanced to States (and Wantagh finished 3rd at States only 23 pts behind Burnt Hills) ... At Manhattan, Calhoun finished 4th in their varsity division race while a separate sophomore team finished second in a sophomore race (which is one reason for some team depth entering 2009).

After the top two, Queensbury is only slightly ahead of a group of eight  teams that appear quite close ... one significant improvement on any of those teams will make a big difference.

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2008
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Burnt Hills
  Otis Ubriaco          11    9:10     4:16     ---      188     184 191 185 185 190 184 185 181 179 175
  Scott Maughan         12    9:30y    4:22y    9:56     182     182 178 180 185 186 185 180 178 179 175
  Sean Pezzulo          12    9:53     4:35    10:14     171     165 168 162 174 181 176 175 168 169
  Chris Fernandez       12     --       --      ---      156     145 158 155 148
  Dan King              11     --       --      ---      153     122 156 150 146

Calhoun
  Bobby McGetrick       12    9:47     4:47     9:56     172     170 167 175 171
  Kevin Harvey          12    9:39     4:26     ---      171     165 169 173
  James Panetta         11   10:06      --      ---      167     167 167 167
  Tim Campbell          11   10:06     4:34     ---      158     153 159 158
  Nicholas Macaluso     11     --      4:56     ---      157     157
  James Sciolto         12     --      4:44y    ---      157     136 160 157
  Casey Bader           11     --       --      ---      154     154

Queensbury
  Jon Flint             12     --       --      ---      164     155 168 159 168 168 162 159 158 161
  Will Frielinghaus     11    10:24    4:56     ---      160     153 161 159 157 165 160 154 155
  Aaron Newell          11     --       --      ---      159     161 156 157 162 155 154 147 147
  Gary Messina          11     --      4:48     ---      159     161 156 154 158 148 150 156
  Kevin Chen            12    10:23    4:52y    ---      154     154 155 151
  Taylor Parry          12     --       --      ---      150     144 152
  Nick Underwood        10     --       --      ---      149     149	

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Honeoye Falls-Lima      120      (05-B)
   East Aurora             160      (06-B)
   Windsor                 160      (04-B)
   Shoreham-Wading River   160      (11-B)
   Byram Hills             160      (01-B)
   Manhasset               160      (08-B)
   Broadalbin-Perth        175      (02-B)
   Wayne                   180      (05-B)
   Bayport-Blue Pt         185      (11-B)
   Marcellus               190      (03-B)
   Pearl River             215      (01-B)
   Red Hook                220      (09-B)
   New Hartford            220      (03-B)
   Beekmantown             240      (07-B)		

I see very little to separate a bunch of the other teams entering the 2009 season ... Nearly all of the top Class B teams from last year took multiple hits from graduation, so 2009 may be interesting because some new and young runners will improve a lot, but for which teams?

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2008
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Honeoye Falls-Lima
  Alex Deir             12     9:39     --      9:24     189     184 191 188 191 186 184 183 187 187
  Steve Mangan          12     9:53    4:15     ---      180     177 180 178 181 182 173 178 183
  Kevin Hoose           11     9:46    4:36     ---      167     169 157 170 167 163 156 161 158
  Tom Ramsdell          11      --      --      ---      148     147 148 148 149 148 140 144 137
  Cam Held              12      --      --     10:57     140     140 137
  Case McIntyre         11      --      --      ---      136     131 137 137	

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Jordan-Elbridge          74      (03-C)
   Holland Patent           75      (03-C)
   Pawling                 110      (01-C)
   Tully                   110      (03-C)
   James O'Neill           115      (09-C)
   Gowanda                 120      (06-C)
   Dobbs Ferry             130      (01-C)
   Rhinebeck               135      (09-C)		

Tully was only four points behind Holland Patent and Jordan-Elbridge at sectionals, but Tully loses one key runner (Nate Weber) ... However, Coach Jim Paccia has been very good in past years at "convincing" a few soccer & football players to transfer and upgrade their sports participation to cross country (I can't use the word "recruit" because the track and XC teams at Tully are not allowed to "recruit" from other sports) ... This year, Tully may be getting one football "transfer" that could help.

Pawling is getting top runner Brandon Freyer who will obviously help ... if they get some improvement at #4 and #5 positions, Pawling is definitely in the hunt for the State title ... and the other teams are not that far behind.

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Beaver River             47      (03-D)
   Barker                   53      (06-D)
   Seton Catholic-Platts    57      (07-D)		   
   Norwood-Norfolk          58      (10-D)

 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Chaminade                39      (CHSAA)
   St. Anthony's            46      (CHSAA)
   McKee/Staten             94      (PSAL )
   Monsignor Farrell       105      (CHSAA)
   Curtis                  105      (PSAL )		

 
                              3200     1600    Steep   XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2008
                              ----     ----    -----   --------- ----------------------------
Chaminade
  William Slattery      11     9:49    4:37     ---      172     174 167 172 167 168 164 167 156
  Andy Hayes            12      --     4:23     ---      167     158 169 168 170 169 143
  Stephen Smith         12     9:53    4:36     ---      160     162 149 162 164 124
  Andrew James          12      --     4:35     ---      158     135 163 155 163 160 150
  Peter Kechegian       12      --     4:32     ---      158     157 154 160 156 150
  Dillon Schwartz       11      --      --      ---      157     156 159 153 150 159 145
  Nicholas Petsky       12      --     4:48     ---      157     154 158
  George Starkie        11      --     4:59     ---      154     151 152 158
  Conor Nickel          12     9:52    4:41     9:52     153     149 149 161
  Paul Rooney           11      --     4:45     ---      150     150

St. Anthony's
  Patrick Murphy        12      --     4:18     ---      169     150 172 167 170 175 170 155
  Kenneth Walshak       12     9:35    4:33     9:39     168     164 168 169 167 169 168 161 158
  Jared Sassone-McHugh  12      --     4:51     ---      159     159
  Matthew Fortino       11    10:52    4:57     ---      156     151 158 151 156 151
  Thomas Flynn          11    10:24    4:34    10:26     155     138 159 157 155 157 155 146
  Brandon Keany         12      --     4:39     ---      155     145 158 148 160 157 145 142
  Colin Davis           11    10:35    4:54     ---      155     157 151 149 149
  Nicholas Brennan      12      --     4:40     ---      152     152 152 153 151