NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2009

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings alone ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners ... See the "Importance of Speed Ratings in Handicapping NXN Nationals" article for additional information.

In addition to the predicted team scores, I have also listed the projected individual finishing positions for each runner that shows where the team scores came from using overall-combine ratings (Individual Boys ... Individual Girls) ... Viewers have asked about the "Overall-Combined" speed ratings - I make my best approximation from the data I have (sometimes just a "best guess") - See text files of data (worksheets of various team speed ratings by race):
 .... [ Boys Text File of NXN Team Data ]
 .... [ Girls Text File of NXN Team Data ]

Initial projections posted on November 30, 2009 ... (club names updated Dec 2) ... Actual Scores Added December 5, 2009

 

      PROJECTED TEAM SCORES                                       ACTUAL TEAM SCORES
         by Overall Rating                                           by School Names            Pred
  =======================================================    ================================   ====

  1   York IL                 Elmhurst XC             231     1  Boerne TX                195   ( 8)
  2   Ferris WA               South Spokane XC        235     2  Ferris WA                201   ( 2)
  3   Loyola IL               Wilmette XC             237     3  The Woodlands TX         207   (12)
  4   American Fork UT        American Fork XC        242     4  Loyola IL                208   ( 3)
  5   Albuquerque Acad NM     ABQ XC                  244     5  Albuquerque Acad NM      236   ( 5)
  6   North Central WA        North Spokane XC        246     6  Dana Hills CA            238   (10)
  7   Fayetteville-Manlius    Manlius XC              247     7  North Central WA         239   ( 6)
  8   Boerne TX               Boerne XC               249     8  American Fork UT         247   ( 4)
  9   Neuqua Valley IL        Naperville XC           256     9  Fayetteville-Manlius     270   ( 7)
  10  Dana Hills CA           Dana Point XC           260    10  Bishop Hendricken-RI     284   (18)
  11  Palos Verdes CA         Palos Verdes XC         265    11  Cedar Park TX            289   (15)
  12  The Woodlands TX        The Woodlands XC        276    12  Neuqua Valley IL         292   ( 9)
  13  Arcadia CA              Arcadia XC              281    13  York IL                  295   ( 1)
  14  Royal CA                Simi Royal XC           282    14  Eden Praire MN           297   (16)
  15  Cedar Park TX           Cedar Park XC           298    15  Royal CA                 311   (14)
  16  Eden Praire MN          Eden Prairie XC         317    16  Wayzata MN               312   (19)
  17  Brookwood GA            Snellville XC           322    17  Palos Verdes CA          325   (11)
  18  Bishop Hendricken-RI    Rhode Island XC         332    18  Brookwood GA             343   (17)
  19  Wayzata MN              Wayzata XC              345    19  Burnt Hills NY           349   (20)
  20  Burnt Hills NY          Burnt Hills XC          354    20  Arcadia CA               373   (13)
  21  Germantown Friends PA   Germantown XC           368    21  Germantown Friends PA    422   (21)
  22  Miami Columbus FL       Miami XC                376    22  Miami Columbus FL        481   (22)

		

Pre-Race Comments ... The first five years of NTN demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The projected team scores above are the actual raw scores from the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating ... Computer simulation is not possible because I do not have sufficient data for many teams outside NY State.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating).

Overall Team Comment ... I have never seen a race this close in terms of predicting the winning team ... At least half the Boy's field is capable of winning this race with a great performance ... To say the #4 and #5 runners are important in this race is an incredible understatement (especially the #5 runner) ... The important speed rating range between 172 and 176 (only a 12 second range) has projected team scoring places between 77th and 111th place ... 34 places over a 12 second span ... That means if a runner is only 12 seconds slower, it could add 34 points to the team total, and that's the difference between 1st and 11th in the team scores above ... Needless to say, don't bet the rent money on the exact team projections above.

Selected Individual Team Comments:

York IL (Kroy TC) ... York is the slight morning-line favorite because they won the very tough Midwest regional with their best performance of the season ... Good recent performance is usually rewarded in the "morning-line", but York will need to repeat that performance to win ... York's experience at NXN is a big plus.

Loyola IL (Wilmette XC Club) ... This at-large selection has a real shot to win ... Loyola has a very strong top four runners, and their fortunes overall rest with the #5 finisher.

Neuqua Valley IL (Naperville South XC) ... Neuqua Valley won NXN in 2007, and this year's top runner (Aaron Beattie) was member of that team ... Illinois has hopes of finishing one-two-three at NXN this year, and that is a possibility.

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... I'm from NY, so I'm rooting for Fayetteville-Manlius ... Too bad FM is missing a healthy Alex Hatz because FM would be the favorite with him ... FM is projected as a possible winner anyway because their #5 runner (Joe Hartnett) has shown marked improvement in both recent races.

 

Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... 
  (Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ...
    See Boys Text File of NXN Team Data .... Scores below are Combined-Overall Ratings) 


     Projected Top Ten Individual Team Runners                           Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Ammar Moussa     11   Arcadia CA              Arcadia XC              196.0
2   Ben Johnston     12   North Central WA        North Spokane XC        194.5
3   Parker Stinson   12   Cedar Park TX           Cedar Park XC           193.0
4   Andrew Smith     12   York IL                 Elmhurst XC             192.0
5   Adam Thorne      11   Ferris WA               South Spokane XC        191.9
5   Jack Driggs      11   York IL                 Elmhurst XC             191.9
7   Austin West      11   American Fork UT        American Fork XC        191.6
8   Otis Ubriaco     11   Burnt Hills NY          Burnt Hills XC          191.5
9   Aaron Beattie    12   Neuqua Valley IL        Naperville South XC     190.4
10  Pat Zacharias    12   Albuquerque Acad NM     ABQ XC                  190.0
10  Jonah Diaz       10   Palos Verdes CA         Palos Verdes XC         190.0
10  Aaron Bartnik    11   Eden Praire MN          Eden Prairie XC         190.0
10  Tyler Anyan      12   Brookwood GA            Snellville XC           190.0



                                                                                Overall
                                                                                Speed    Team
Place   Name             Grade  School                   Club                   Rating   Score    Region
----- -----------------  -----  ------------------       ---------------------  ------   -----    ---------
4     Andrew Smith         12   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             192.0    231     Midwest
5     Jack Driggs          11   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             191.9            Midwest
46    Khushpal Sangha      12   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             180.0            Midwest
61    Ron Hedman           11   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             178.1            Midwest
115   Nick Gornick         11   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             171.5            Midwest
122   Tom Hedman           11   York IL                  Elmhurst XC             168.0            Midwest
137   Alex Mimlitz         9    York IL                  Elmhurst XC             163.6            Midwest

5     Adam Thorne          11   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        191.9    235     Northwest
42    Alex Kimsey          10   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        181.5            Northwest
46    Tim Colliton         11   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        180.0            Northwest
67    Justin Zimmerman     12   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        177.8            Northwest
75    Perry Domini         12   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        176.4            Northwest
127   Jeremy Gavelin       12   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        166.6            Northwest
140   Scott Davis          12   Ferris WA                South Spokane XC        163.0            Northwest

18    Nico Composto        12   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             187.0    237     Midwest
23    Jack Seeberg         12   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             186.2            Midwest
25    Mark Donohue         12   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             185.0            Midwest
46    Patrick Smith        12   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             180.0            Midwest
125   Mac Ford             11   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             167.0            Midwest
128   William Hague        10   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             166.0            Midwest
134   Tommy Beddome        11   Loyola IL                Wilmette XC             164.0            Midwest

7     Austin West          11   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        191.6    242     Southwest
24    Clayton Young        10   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        185.5            Southwest
35    Robby Lee            12   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        182.7            Southwest
87    Derek Day            11   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        174.6            Southwest
89    MacKenzie Morrison   10   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        174.5            Southwest
97    Jeff Nelson          12   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        174.0            Southwest
110   Ashenafe Richardson  11   American Fork UT         American Fork XC        172.1            Southwest

10    Pat Zacharias        12   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  190.0    244     Southwest
27    Alex Herring         12   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  184.3            Southwest
44    Neil Longenbaugh     11   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  181.0            Southwest
63    Ryan Clark           12   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  178.0            Southwest
100   Emmet Wynn           11   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  173.9            Southwest
108   Louis Jochems        11   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  172.9            Southwest
143   Jefferson Rieder     11   Albuquerque Acad NM      ABQ XC                  162.8            Southwest

2     Ben Johnston         12   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        194.5    246     Northwest
22    Alex Avila           12   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        186.3            Northwest
28    Casey Adams          11   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        184.0            Northwest
79    Vince Hamilton       11   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        175.9            Northwest
115   Andrew Wordell       11   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        171.5            Northwest
124   JT Melgren           12   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        167.6            Northwest
132   John Balch           11   North Central WA         North Spokane XC        164.5            Northwest

18    Brendan Farrell      12   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              187.0    247     New York
36    Paul Merriman        12   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              182.5            New York
53    Mark McGurrin        11   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              179.3            New York
55    Andrew Roache        11   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              178.9            New York
85    Joe Hartnett         12   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              175.0            New York
139   Ben Thomas           10   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              163.1            New York
140   Owen Strong          11   Fayetteville-Manlius     Manlius XC              163.0            New York

16    Nathan Christianson  12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               188.0    249     South
17    Travis Barclay       11   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               187.5            South
61    Moses Luevano        12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               178.1            South
72    Will Mack            12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               176.6            South
83    Colby McCune         12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               175.3            South
96    Ryan Miller          12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               174.1            South
102   Ethan Doherty        12   Boerne TX                Boerne XC               173.4            South

9     Aaron Beattie        12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           190.4    256     Midwest
38    David Wing           12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           182.3            Midwest
63    Billy Klimczak       12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           178.0            Midwest
69    Carlton Folster      12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           177.2            Midwest
77    Jaffar Mahmoud       12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           176.0            Midwest
84    Luke Verbus          12   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           175.1            Midwest
94    Josh Antonson        11   Neuqua Valley IL         Naperville XC           174.4            Midwest

26    Ricardo Campuzano    11   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           184.4    260     California
30    Conner Kaddatz       11   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           183.5            California
59    Jesus Molina         12   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           178.5            California
70    Trevor Lynn          11   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           177.0            California
75    Derrick Lloyd        12   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           176.4            California
105   Blake Ahrold         12   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           173.0            California
131   Ethan Lawrence       10   Dana Hills CA            Dana Point XC           165.0            California

10    Jonah Diaz           10   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         190.0    265     California
41    Chase Zukerman       12   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         181.6            California
54    Peter Cohen          12   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         179.0            California
63    Justin Unno          10   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         178.0            California
97    Jacob Paulson        12   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         174.0            California
130   Alec Dunton          10   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         165.5            California
148   Daniel Rieger        10   Palos Verdes CA          Palos Verdes XC         159.0            California

34    Tom Sanderson        12   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        182.9    276     South
51    Tyler Bradley        12   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        179.9            South
55    Phil Schneider       11   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        178.9            South
55    Nathan Carbajal      12   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        178.9            South
81    Ross Moulder         12   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        175.5            South
89    Joaquin Ortegon      12   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        174.5            South
111   Andrew Scheffey      11   The Woodlands TX         The Woodlands XC        172.0            South

1     Ammar Moussa         11   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              196.0    281     California
46    Allen Leung          11   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              180.0            California
59    Sergio Gonzalez      10   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              178.5            California
70    Eric Garibay         11   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              177.0            California
105   William Tsai         11   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              173.0            California
120   Esmond Wei           11   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              169.0            California
125   Charlie Johansen     12   Arcadia CA               Arcadia XC              167.0            California

15    Travis Edwards       12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           189.0    282     California
30    Sean Davidson        12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           183.5            California
46    Paul Jesson          12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           180.0            California
73    Korey Yoakum         12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           176.5            California
118   Nico Gervasoni       11   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           170.0            California
120   Colin Keane          12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           169.0            California
140   Christian Garza      12   Royal CA                 Simi Royal XC           163.0            California

3     Parker Stinson       12   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           193.0    298     South
20    Jay McIllece         12   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           186.5            South
30    Austin Geerts        12   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           183.5            South
111   Bobby McIllece       12   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           172.0            South
134   Cameron Shoppach     12   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           164.0            South
144   Herbert Gutierrez    11   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           162.6            South
148   Weston O'Donnell     11   Cedar Park TX            Cedar Park XC           159.0            South

10    Aaron Bartnik        11   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         190.0    317     Heartland
33    Mohamed Mohamed      11   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         183.0            Heartland
63    Chris Mueller        12   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         178.0            Heartland
100   Kyle Bratrud         11   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         173.9            Heartland
111   Erick Meszaros-Jon   12   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         172.0            Heartland
117   Marcus Huderle       12   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         171.4            Heartland
154   Brady Gust           12   Eden Praire MN           Eden Prairie XC         151.8            Heartland

10    Tyler Anyan          12   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           190.0    322     Southeast
44    Tommy George         12   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           181.0            Southeast
77    Sean Brennan         11   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           176.0            Southeast
94    Zach Robinson        12   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           174.4            Southeast
97    Carter Hewitt        12   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           174.0            Southeast
119   Michael Giuliano     11   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           169.8            Southeast
137   Jackson Wearn        11   Brookwood GA             Snellville XC           163.6            Southeast

14    Jake Sienko          12   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        189.3    332     Northeast
39    Brian Doyle          12   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        182.0            Northeast
68    Michael MacKenzie    12   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        177.5            Northeast
89    Ryan Meehan          11   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        174.5            Northeast
122   Andrew Andraka       11   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        168.0            Northeast
146   Drew Manning         11   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        159.5            Northeast
150   Mark Vuono           10   Bishop Hendricken-RI     Rhodes Island XC        158.0            Northeast

39    Oliver Haugland      12   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              182.0    345     Heartland
43    Josh Thorson         10   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              181.2            Heartland
85    Landon Lozano        12   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              175.0            Heartland
89    John Subialka        12   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              174.5            Heartland
89    Max Johnson          12   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              174.5            Heartland
109   Adam Moline          11   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              172.8            Heartland
114   Mark Harries         11   Wayzata MN               Wayzata XC              171.6            Heartland

8     Otis Ubriaco         11   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          191.5    354     New York
28    Scott Maughan        12   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          184.0            New York
87    Sean Pezzulo         12   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          174.6            New York
103   Chris Fernandez      12   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          173.2            New York
128   Dan Fernandez        10   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          166.0            New York
151   Kevin Terbush        11   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          157.5            New York
153   Joe Chapman          10   Burnt Hills NY           Burnt Hills XC          152.0            New York

20    Gus McKenzie         12   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           186.5    368     Northeast
58    David Waterman       11   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           178.6            Northeast
81    Tom Waterman         12   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           175.5            Northeast
104   Evan Caldwell        11   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           173.1            Northeast
105   Ross Wistar          12   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           173.0            Northeast
133   Sam Butler           12   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           164.2            Northeast
152   Cameron Mactavish    11   Germantown Friends PA    Germantown XC           157.4            Northeast

37    Armando Del Valle    11   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                182.4    376     Southeast
52    Dominick Cabrera     12   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                179.5            Southeast
73    Mark Gulesian        11   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                176.5            Southeast
80    Eduardo Arechabala   12   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                175.6            Southeast
134   Andrew Shaheen       12   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                164.0            Southeast
145   Geoffrey Zelek       11   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                161.0            Southeast
147   Moises Perez         11   Miami Columbus FL        Miami XC                159.1            Southeast

		

      PROJECTED TEAM SCORES                                        ACTUAL TEAM SCORES
         by Overall Rating                                            by School Names           Pred
  ========================================================    ================================  ====

  1   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC               84     1  Fayetteville-Manlius      74  ( 1)
  2   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              139     2  Saratoga Springs NY      147  ( 3)
  3   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              170     3  Fort Collins CO          161  ( 8)
  4   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      219     4  Saugus CA                191  ( 2)
  5   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         233     5  Magnificat OH            195  ( 9)
  6   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           242     6  Blacksburg VA            223  ( 7)
  7   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           246     7  Queensbury NY            284  (10)
  8   Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         269     8  Shenendehowa NY          285  ( 5)
  9   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          273     9  Classical Academy CO     291  (11)
  10  Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           276    10  Corona Del Mar CA        313  (12)
  11  Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           277    11  Jesuit OR                318  (13)
  12  Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        285    12  Dowling Catholic IA      326  (17)
  13  Jesuit OR                Portland XC             293    13  Hidden Valley VA         330  (14)
  14  Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              310    14  Tatnall DE               346  ( 6)
  15  Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      319    15  Bishop Feehan MA         352  (18)
  16  Palatine IL              Palatine XC             338    16  Kingwood TX              362  (22)
  17  Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           341    17  Mira Costa CA            367  ( 4)
  18  Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        385    18  Bishop Kelly ID          395  (15)
  19  Elk River MN             Elk River XC            408    19  Palatine IL              407  (16)
  20  LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           416    20  Elk River MN             418  (19)
  21  Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              468    21  LaSalle Academy RI       447  (20)
  22  Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             544    22  Southlake Carroll TX     467  (21)
	

Pre-Race Comments ... During the pre-season, it looked like Fayetteville-Manlius, Saugus CA and Saratoga NY were the top three teams in the nation and nothing has changed since then ... In New York during the pre-season, Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga, Shenendehowa and Queensbury were the pre-season picks and they finished in that exact order ... Sometimes girls are more predictable than boys (in terms of cross country racing that is).

Individual Team Comments:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the three-time defending National Champion and the favorite to win again ... FM had an absolutely great performance at the NY State Class Meet (took the the top five spots) and then skipped the NY Federation Meet ... At the NXN-NY regional, FM did not run particularly well; top runner Courtney Chapman finished #6 for the team after experiencing a mid-race illness (she became light-headed), and several other scorers were subpar in comparison to previous races ... However, I would not be surprised if FM was training-through the race in preparation for NXN Nationals ... FM is deep through all seven runners, and they still won NXN regionals handily despite the illness to their top runner.

Saugus CA (Newhall XC) ... Saugus finished second at NXN the past two years ... Saugus traveled to the McQuaid Invitational in NY in early October and won handily with an impressive performance ... They are a very good team with proven experience at NXN ... Should FM falter, Saugus has the ability to win.

Saratoga NY (Kinetic RC) ... Saratoga won the NY Federation Meet and easily finished 2nd at NXN regionals ... Saratoga is talented and deep through all seven runners, which is a nice advantage at NXN ... Saratoga has proven experience at NXN (and that's another big plus).

Mira Costa CA (Manhattan Beach XC) ... Mira Costa CA has shown very good strength through five runners for the entire season ... If the top five runners perform well, Mira Costa could easily finish in the top four or five five spots ... Their lack of prior experience at Portland NXN is the one concern (updated: Mira Costa CA finished 3rd at NXN Open in Portland in 2008 (Beach City XC) ... that's a plus).

Shenendehowa NY (Clifton Park TC) ... Although top runner Lizzie Predmore won the NXN regional, Shenendehowa did not have great overall team performance at that race ... Lizzie Predmore and Danika Simonson were individual qualifiers to NXN last year (and ran well at NXN Nationals last year) ... Shenendehowa could definitely move up with a great team performance.

Tatnall DE (Wilmington XC) ... Tatnall finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year ... their top runner graduated, but Tatnall is still a very good team ... Tatnall's #2 runner from States and Manhattan finished as the #7 runner at NXN regionals, and Tatnall still beat a very good Blacksburg VA team ... Blacksburg VA is projected very close to Tatnall above ... Blacksburg VA and Dowling Catholic IA have outstanding one-two runners (they might sweep the top four team places).

Very little separates the teams in 8th through 13th in the projection ... one runner having a very good or bad race changes things quickly.

Queensbury NY (Adirondack Runners) ... Last year, I under-rated Queensbury's finish at NXN (they finished 5th) ... Queensbury's top four runners return this year ... Unfortunately, predicting their finish this year requires something of a "guess" because their typical #4 runner (Carly Wynn) did not run at NY Federations; she returned for NXN regionals, but her performance was sub-par (she was the #6 runner) which makes me suspect sickness or injury (I do not know), so I had to "guess" her upcoming performance.

 

Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... 
  (Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets...
    See Girls Text File of NXN Team Data .... Scores below are Combined-Overall Ratings)



     Projected Top Ten Individual Team Runners                                  Rating
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1    Kathleen Stevens     12   Blacksburg VA             Blacksburg XC           153.0
1    Katie Flood          12   Dowling Catholic IA       Des Moines XC           153.0
3    Ashlie Decker        12   Dowling Catholic IA       Des Moines XC           152.0
4    Joanna Stevens       12   Blacksburg VA             Blacksburg XC           149.0
5    Lizzie Predmore      10   Shenendehowa NY           Clifton Park XC         148.0
6    Emily Nist           10   Bishop Kelly ID           Treasure Valley XC      147.5
7    Kaitlin Hanenburg    12   Classical Academy CO      Pikes Peak XC           147.0
8    Madeline Chambers    12   Magnificat OH             Rocky River XC          146.2
9    Courtney Chapman     11   Fayetteville-Manlius NY   Manlius XC              146.0
10   AnnaMarie Maag       11   Jesuit OR                 Portland XC             145.5
10   Kaylin Mahoney       11   Saugus CA                 Newhall XC              145.5


                                                                                Overall
                                                                                Speed    Team
Place   Name             Grade  School                   Club                   Rating   Score    Region
----- -----------------  -----  ------------------       ---------------------  ------   -----    ---------

9     Courtney Chapman     11   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              146.0    84      New York
16    Jillian Fanning      9    Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              142.3            New York
18    Molly Malone         12   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              140.0            New York
20    Katie Sischo         10   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              139.5            New York
21    Mackenzie Carter     12   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              139.0            New York
23    Hannah Luber         12   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              138.0            New York
42    Heather Martin       10   Fayetteville-Manlius NY  Manlius XC              130.0            New York

10    Kaylin Mahoney       11   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              145.5    139     California
17    Karis Frankian       10   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              141.0            California
26    Stephanie Balder     11   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              137.0            California
36    Amber Murakami       12   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              132.0            California
50    Danielle Hernando    11   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              127.0            California
65    Merissa Kado         11   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              124.0            California
106   Nicole Penick        11   Saugus CA                Newhall XC              110.7            California

15    Keelin Hollowood     10   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              143.5    170     New York
33    Sydney King          11   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              133.0            New York
34    Amanda Borroughs     11   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              132.1            New York
40    Madison Carr         9    Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              130.5            New York
48    Brianne Bellon       12   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              127.5            New York
64    Brianna Freestone    11   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              124.5            New York
70    Cassie Goutos        12   Saratoga Springs NY      Kinetic XC              122.0            New York

24    Savannah Pio         11   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      138.0    219     California
30    Aleyna Lacroix       12   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      134.5            California
38    Aryn Foland          11   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      131.0            California
59    Shannon Hagedorn     11   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      125.0            California
68    Kelly Suglmoto       10   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      123.0            California
121   Kristie Fields       12   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      106.0            California
124   Vivien Cherrette     10   Mira Costa CA            Manhattan Beach XC      105.0            California

5     Lizzie Predmore      10   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         148.0    233     New York
18    Nicole Irving        12   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         140.0            New York
59    Danika Simonson      12   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         125.0            New York
72    Jordan Westcott      12   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         121.0            New York
79    Cara Janeczko        12   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         118.0            New York
104   Alexandra Burtnick   11   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         112.0            New York
124   Gina Stalica         10   Shenendehowa NY          Clifton Park XC         105.0            New York

14    Haley Pierce         10   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           143.8    242     Southeast
39    Reagan Anderson      9    Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           130.6            Southeast
57    Rebecca Salter       10   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           125.5            Southeast
65    Kallie Fehr          12   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           124.0            Southeast
67    Molly Parsons        12   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           123.5            Southeast
87    Allison Calvarese    11   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           115.5            Southeast
124   Carly Simmons        12   Tatnall DE               Wilmington XC           105.0            Southeast

1     Kathleen Stevens     12   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           153.0    246     Southeast
4     Joanna Stevens       12   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           149.0            Southeast
59    Leah Fitchett        12   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           125.0            Southeast
79    Sarah Dorrell        11   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           118.0            Southeast
103   Hannah Brown         10   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           112.5            Southeast
130   Kate Buss            10   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           104.0            Southeast
151   Tazzy Kaiser         11   Blacksburg VA            Blacksburg XC           89.0             Southeast

25    Rachael Viger        12   Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         137.9    269     Southwest
44    Kirsten Follett      12   Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         129.0            Southwest
46    Erin Hooker          9    Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         128.5            Southwest
76    Denise Chilson       12   Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         119.0            Southwest
78    Marci Witczak        11   Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         118.1            Southwest
120   Maddie Staab         9    Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         106.1            Southwest
134   Taleah McClintock    9    Fort Collins CO          Fort Collins XC         103.0            Southwest

8     Madeline Chambers    12   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          146.2    273     Midwest
43    Clare Fischer        12   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          129.4            Midwest
63    Abby Fischer         10   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          124.7            Midwest
74    Katherine Stultz     11   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          119.3            Midwest
85    Abigail Marquard     10   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          116.2            Midwest
98    Erin Riley           12   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          114.0            Midwest
121   Mary Whitmore        12   Magnificat OH            Rocky River XC          106.0            Midwest

12    Danielle Winslow     11   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           145.0    276     New York
12    Brittany Winslow     11   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           145.0            New York
44    Morgan Mueller       12   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           129.0            New York
91    Carly Wynn           11   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           115.0            New York
117   Jolie Navatka        10   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           107.0            New York
137   Kirsten Lajoie       12   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           101.0            New York
146   Katie Mannix         12   Queensbury NY            Adirondack XC           95.0             New York

7     Kaitlin Hanenburg    12   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           147.0    277     Southwest
26    Emily Lavalley       12   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           137.0            Southwest
52    Shelby Stableford    10   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           126.6            Southwest
91    Elaina Turley        12   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           115.0            Southwest
101   Meredith Sloan       12   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           113.4            Southwest
111   Brittany Droogsma    9    Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           109.0            Southwest
138   Emily Husted         11   Classical Academy CO     Pikes Peak XC           100.0            Southwest

21    Melanie Powers       12   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        139.0    285     California
47    Kristina Funahashi   12   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        128.0            California
56    Marisa Cummings      12   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        126.0            California
79    Kristina Rivera      10   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        118.0            California
82    Ashlee Powers        10   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        117.0            California
91    Ali Hummelberg       12   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        115.0            California
121   Sarah Keddington     12   Corona Del Mar CA        Newport Beach XC        106.0            California

10    AnnaMarie Maag       11   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             145.5    293     Northwest
37    Payton Schutte       11   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             131.9            Northwest
55    Adrienne Demaree     10   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             126.3            Northwest
91    Shannon Mahoney      11   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             115.0            Northwest
100   Olivia Artaiz        11   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             113.6            Northwest
129   Sabrah DeVoir        11   Jesuit OR                Portland XC             104.3            Northwest
136   Molly Hagler         9    Jesuit OR                Portland XC             101.5            Northwest

32    Annie LeHardy        11   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              133.5    310     Southeast
51    Haley Cutright       11   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              126.8            Southeast
59    Claire Sibley        12   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              125.0            Southeast
82    Carolyn Bethel       9    Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              117.0            Southeast
86    Mary Catherine Sowder12   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              116.0            Southeast
145   Lindsay Skolrood     12   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              97.0             Southeast
148   Greta Weidner        10   Hidden Valley VA         Roanoke XC              92.0             Southeast

6     Emily Nist           10   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      147.5    319     Northwest
53    Lara Tuthill         12   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      126.5            Northwest
69    Ashlynn Curnow       10   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      122.6            Northwest
73    Rebecca Lassere      10   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      120.0            Northwest
118   Briana Tiffany       10   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      106.8            Northwest
130   Camille Fery         11   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      104.0            Northwest
144   Erin Gordon          10   Bishop Kelly ID          Treasure Valley XC      97.5             Northwest

41    Sarah McIntosh       11   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             130.1    338     Midwest
48    Ruth Allen           12   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             127.5            Midwest
53    Courtney Brown       12   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             126.5            Midwest
87    Tess Wasowicz        9    Palatine IL              Palatine XC             115.5            Midwest
109   Laura Schweikert     10   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             109.5            Midwest
138   Emily Schulte        10   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             100.0            Midwest
141   Ellen Smith          10   Palatine IL              Palatine XC             99.0             Midwest

1     Katie Flood          12   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           153.0    341     Heartland
3     Ashlie Decker        12   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           152.0            Heartland
102   Diane Hubbell        10   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           112.7            Heartland
116   Allie Vaughan        10   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           107.4            Heartland
119   Vanessa Miller       9    Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           106.2            Heartland
140   Heather Tobias       12   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           99.1             Heartland
149   Emily Merfeld        12   Dowling Catholic IA      Des Moines XC           91.9             Heartland

34    Viviana Hanley       11   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        132.1    385     Northeast
70    Erin Murphy          12   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        122.0            Northeast
82    Anisa Arsenault      12   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        117.0            Northeast
87    Erin Svensen         10   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        115.5            Northeast
112   Jen Thomas           12   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        108.5            Northeast
130   Katie Powell         10   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        104.0            Northeast
150   Abbey MacBeth        10   Bishop Feehan MA         Massachusetts XC        90.0             Northeast

28    Emma Bates           12   Elk River MN             Elk River XC            136.0    408     Heartland
29    Abbi Aspengren       11   Elk River MN             Elk River XC            134.6            Heartland
110   Chelsea Schlegel     9    Elk River MN             Elk River XC            109.4            Heartland
113   Victoria Janasz      12   Elk River MN             Elk River XC            108.2            Heartland
128   Jane Kallemeyn       11   Elk River MN             Elk River XC            104.7            Heartland
142   Erin Ness            8    Elk River MN             Elk River XC            98.9             Heartland
143   Anna Haugen          9    Elk River MN             Elk River XC            98.6             Heartland

31    Molly Keating        10   LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           134.0    416     Northeast
75    Evie Jansen          9    LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           119.2            Northeast
91    Emily Papazian       10   LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           115.0            Northeast
105   Danielle Renzi       11   LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           111.0            Northeast
114   Victoria Beardwood   12   LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           108.0            Northeast
134   Tiana Kibbe          9    LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           103.0            Northeast
154   Siobahn Kelly        10   LaSalle Academy RI       Providence XC           77.2             Northeast

58    Jessica Harper       12   Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              125.1    468     South
96    Sarah Roe            10   Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              114.7            South
99    Rachael Harper       10   Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              113.8            South
107   Courtney Kriegshauser9    Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              110.2            South
108   Shelby Chapin        9    Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              109.6            South
115   Kathryn Steele       9    Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              107.6            South
124   Paige Youngblood     11   Southlake Carroll TX     Carroll XC              105.0            South

77    Sophie Blake         12   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             118.2    544     South
90    Rosemary Steup       12   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             115.1            South
97    Catie Daigre         10   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             114.2            South
133   Laura Craig          10   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             103.1            South
147   Katy Campbell        12   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             93.5             South
152   Kerstin Sheehan      10   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             88.2             South
153   Emily Heitzwebel     12   Kingwood TX              Kingwood XC             78.3             South