Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     55           FM                     28  
  2   Liverpool              62           Liverpool              76  
  3   Baldwinsville          71           West Genesee           82  
  4   West Genesee           75           Baldwinsville          93  
  5   CNS                   110           CNS                   110  
  6   Rome                  170           Central Square        183  
  7   Central Square        209           Rome                  199  
  8   Auburn                237           Proctor               245  
  9   Oswego                252           Corcoran              272  
  10  Proctor               259           Auburn                274  
  11  Corcoran              298           Oswego                290  
  12  Henninger             389           Henninger             366   
			

Post-Race Comments ... The Fayetteville-Manlius Boys performance was incredibly impressive ... Alex Hatz won handily ... Paul Merriman improved his speed rating once again (low 180s to a 190) ... Brendan Farrell made another rating big jump to 187 (his previous three ratings were 179, 168 and 148); according the the Syracuse Post-Standard, Brendan Farrell was affected by "mono" earlier this season (and that would explain the improvement) ... Andrew Roache, Jon Cico and Mark McGurrin also had career-best ratings ... An exceptional performance by FM.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite based on current speed ratings, but the margin relative to other contenders is quite variable ... FM has run less invitational races than other Class AA teams, so the predictability of the next race has a wider margin-of-error (a bigger range of possibilities) ... The predictability of the their top two runners (Alex Hatz and Paul Merriman) is good, but the next three FM scorers have a wide range of possible finishes relative to the competition ... In other words, the Class AA Boys race could be very competitive.

Liverpool won the CNYCL League Meet beating West Genesee and Baldwinsville ... and Liverpool appears to be improving with every race ... FM is currently the #4 ranked team in the State (overall) and #2 in Class AA ... Liverpool is ranked #8 in Class AA ... The probable outcomes of this race suggest Liverpool could upset FM (but FM is the favorite).

West Genesee and Baldwinsville are not that far behind and within reach of making this a very interesting race (West Genesee is ranked 11th in Class AA and Baldwinsville is ranked 13th) ... Some big performances by their #3, #4 and #5 runners put them within reach.

Individual Race ... Alex Hatz (FM) is the clear favorite to win the race ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville), Paul Merriman (FM), Colin Savage (Liverpool),  Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) and Chris Buchanan (CNS) are closely rated as the next individual finishers.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      31           Jamesville Dewitt      37  
  2   ESM                    65           ESM                    62  
  3   Watertown              91           Watertown              89  
  4   Whitesboro            116           Whitesboro            108  
  5   Fulton                124           Fulton                119  
  6   Mexico                125           Mexico                132  
  7   Nottingham            218           Nottingham            199  
  8   Carthage              230           Carthage              229  
  9   Fowler                261           Fowler                260  

Post-Race Comments ... The team race ran very close to predicted form ... Nick Sadlocha (ESM) won the race with his best performance of the season; Dan Frank (JD) finished second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Not much to analyze here ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the definite choice to win ... JD is ranked #8 in the State (Class A); this may be the best quality of Class A teams statewide ever ... East Syracuse-Minoa is ranked #16 in the State (Class A), and the choice to finish 2nd here.

Individual Race ... Dan Frank (JD) and Nick Sadlocha (ESM) are the favorites in the individual race that could be very close.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill               69           Westhill               53
  2   New Hartford           70           Marcellus              59
  3   Marcellus              72           New Hartford           89
  4   Homer                 140           Homer                 138
  5   South Jefferson       160           Oneida                158
  6   Oneida                163           Grimes-Ludden         160
  7   Grimes-Ludden         167           South Jefferson       169
  8   VVS                   183           VVS                   180
  9   Chittenango           196           Chittenango           201
  10  Solvay                272           Solvay                247
  11  Cortland              285           Cortland              299
  12  Phoenix               353           Camden                379
  13  Camden                418

Post-Race Comments ... The Westhill Boys came through again when it counted with a very good team effort ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) and Sean Curry (Grimes-Ludden) ran one-two as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill is a very slight favorite over Marcellus and New Hartford ... Marcellus beat Westhill at OHSL Championships by two points ... Westhill's 3rd finisher at OHSL (Vinny Savastano, 152 rating) had no invitational races since mid-September (167 and 170 ratings); obviously this is a big unknown for handicapping a race, but assuming some improvement would put Westhill slightly ahead of Marcellus (but this is very uncertain).

New Hartford has been running well ... They won the TVL Championship (beating a good Holland Patent team) and sat-out one of their top five at the Adirondack Invitational ... The computer simulations of this race indicate New Hartford winning a higher percentage of races compared to Westhill and Marcellus ... New Hartford has an advantage at the #6 and #7 positions (should one of the top five have an off-race ... this could be important) ... All-in-all, this has the makings of a very close and interesting race.

Individual Race ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) is the top-rated runner in Section 3 and the clear favorite to win the individual title ... Sean Curry (Grimes-Ludden) has been running well all season and is expected to finish 2nd.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent         77           Holland Patent         62
  2   Tully                  81           Jordan-Elbridge        62
  3   Jordan-Elbridge        85           Tully                  66
  4   Canastota              85           Canastota             110
  5   Clinton                92           Clinton               143
  6   Sauquoit Valley       139           Sauquoit Valley       149
  7   Hannibal              242           CBA                   216
  8   CBA                   249           Hannibal              227
  9   Pulaski               262           Pulaski               259
  10  APW                   316           APW                   275
  11  Skaneateles           330           Cazenovia             351
  12  Cazenovia             376           Little Falls          356
  13  Adirondack            384           Sherburne-Earl        365
  14  Little Falls          389           Adirondack            375
  15  Herkimer              390           Herkimer              395
  16  Ilion                 406           Ilion                 395
  17  Sherburne-Earl        416

Post-Race Comments ... Holland Patent beat Jordan-Elbridge with a 6th-man tie-breaker (doesn't get any closer than that) ... Holland Patent won with an excellent "pack" performance (places 8, 9, 10, 17, 18) ... Cody Stanton (Jordan-Elbridge) won the race with his best performance of the season (and that helped JE lower their score) ... Tully finished 4 points behind the winner as predicted.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Five of the eleven top-ranked Class C teams in the State are in this race - Holland Patent (#2), Tully (#3), Jordan-Elbridge (#4), Canastota (#9) and Clinton (#11).

Holland Patent has been racing very well recent (very good team performance at the Adirondack Invitational under poor weather conditions) ... Their advantage on the other contenders is a tighter overall pack and depth at the #1 through #7 positions ... that depth could be the key to winning (that's the reason the computer simulations give Holland Patent the higher percentage of wins).

Tully is improving at the right time (once again) ... Entering the season, Tully looked strong at the top two positions (with returning runners Nate Weber and Ohure Sam), but their #3, #4 and #5 runners (right now) were new to cross country (a football transfer, a soccer transfer and a no-fall-sports transfer) ... and now Tully has a shot at returning to the State Meet (Tully finished 2nd at States last year) ... It must Coach Paccia's motivational speeches.

Canastota is expected to finish one-two individually (Robbie Argentine and Aaron Walker) ... Finishing one-two is a nice advantage ... If Canastota's #4 and #5 runners come through with big performances, Canastota has a good chance of winning.

Jordan-Elbridge is similar to Canastota in requirements to win (they need big performances at the #4 and #5 positions) ... Clinton is lurking close behind and could surprise everybody with a great team performance.

Individual Race ...  Robbie Argentine (Canastota) and Aaron Walker (Canastota) are expected to finish one-two.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           36           Beaver River           43 
  2   Weedsport              94           Oriskany               81 
  3   Oriskany               94           Weedsport              93 
  4   Fabius-Pompey         145           Fabius-Pompey         127 
  5   Cooperstown           196           Onondaga              191 
  6   Onondaga              212           Cooperstown           194 
  7   LaFayette             223           LaFayette             212 
  8   Cato Meridian         275           West Canada           282 
  9   Hamilton              286           Cato-Meridian         282 
  10  West Canada           306           Sandy Creek           288 
  11  Sandy Creek           308           Hamilton              301 
  12  Old Forge             323           Port Byron            328 
  13  Port Byron            340           Poland                331 
  14  Utica Notre Dame      358           Westmoreland          372 
  15  New York Mills        364           Old Forge             378 
  16  Westmoreland          383           New York Mills        405 
  17  Poland                395           Remsen                405 
  18  Remsen                433           Utica Notre Dame      420 
  19  MPH                   480

Post-Race Comments ... Beaver River won handily as expected ... Most of the race ran to form ... Matt Cheney (Beaver River) and Chris Martin (Onondaga) finished one-two as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River enters the Class "D" race as the clear  favorite once again (they are the #1 ranked Class D team in the State).

Weedsport and Oriskany appear evenly matched for the runner-up spot.

Individual Race ... Matt Cheney (Beaver River) and Chris Martin (Onondaga) are the top-rated Class "D" runners in Section 3 ... 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     15           FM                     15  
  2   Liverpool              77           CNS                    77  
  3   CNS                    86           Liverpool              90   
  4   Baldwinsville         101           West Genesee           93   
  5   West Genesee          101           Baldwinsville         135   
  6   Central Square        186           Central Square        196   
  7   Rome                  235           Rome                  237  
  8   Auburn                257           Oswego                242   
  9   Proctor               259           Auburn                253   
  10  Oswego                268           Proctor               279   
  11  Corcoran              299           Corcoran              302   
  12  Henninger             378           Henninger             384     
								

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius took the top seven places as expected with Courtney Chapman winning impressively.

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Fayetteville-Manlius girls are the defending National champions and the #1 ranked team in the USA ... FM scored a perfect 15 last year (although it required an all-out stretch drive by their #5 finisher to accomplish it) ... This year, the top seven finishers could be FM runners.

Liverpool has been improving very nicely ... they beat CNS, Baldwinsville and West Genesee at CNYCL National League Championships.

Individual Race ... Somebody from FM will win ... I expect it to be Courtney Chapman (or will we see another FM group-training run preparing for later races??).

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Whitesboro             56           Whitesboro             49
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      70           Jamesville Dewitt      67
  3   Mexico                 71           Mexico                 68
  4   ESM                   105           ESM                   114
  5   Watertown             130           Watertown             117
  6   Fowler                131           Fulton                123
  7   Fulton                141           Nottingham            157
  8   Nottingham            178
  
				

Post-Race Comments ... The team race ran very close to prediction with Whitesboro winning again ... Jillian Busby (Watertown) and Kelsey Peek (Whitesboro) finished one-two.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Whitesboro is the favorite ... Whitesboro won the TVL League Championship meet at New Hartford ... As with other favorites, their advantage is depth at #4, #5 and #6 positions ... Jamesville-Dewitt and Mexico are closely matched for the 2nd-position, but big performances at the #4 and #5 positions could challenge for the win.

Individual Race ... Jillian Busby (Watertown) has been racing well all season and is the favorite to win the individual title ... Eileen Cody (JD), Tia Bullard (Mexico), Kelsey Peek (Whitesboro), Kaitlyn Day (Whitesboro) and Erin Hudson (Fulton) are the next top rated Class A runners (and seem fairly even).

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill               68           Westhill               58 
  2   VVS                    68           VVS                    67 
  3   Phoenix               121           Phoenix               133 
  4   Chittenango           126           Chittenango           135 
  5   South Jefferson       132           Marcellus             146 
  6   Marcellus             145           New Hartford          157 
  7   Grimes-Ludden         157           Grimes-Ludden         163 
  8   Cortland              189           Cortland              167 
  9   New Hartford          194           Oneida                171 
  10  Oneida                194           South Jefferson       186 
  11  Camden                323
				

Post-Race Comments ... Just like the Westhill Boys, the Westhill Girls came through when it counted ... Elizabeth Dean (Marcellus) was the individual winner.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill and Vernon-Verona-Sherrill (VVS) appear even-up in a race projected by uncertainties ... Westhill finished 5th at OHSL Championships; their team performance was helped by Lissa DiPaola (14th at sectionals last year; she missed the mid and late season invitational races this year); her addition at this performance level makes Westhill a co-favorite.

VVS has been improving (especially at the #3, #4 and #5 positions) ... VVS finished 2nd (to Whitesboro) at TVL Championships and won the merge at the Adirondack Invitational ... VVS enters sectionals racing at their best performance level of season, and that makes VVS a co-favorite and a real threat to win.

Individual Race ... Elizabeth Dean (Marcellus) has been both consistent and good all season (this makes her a co-favorite for the individual title) ... Jessica Curry (Grimes-Ludden) skipped OHSL Championships to concentrate on sectionals ... her performance at the Patriot League meet indicates she is capable of winning.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  59           Tully                  47
  2   CBA                    97           CBA                    97
  3   Pulaski               104           Pulaski               119
  4   Skaneateles           127           Skaneateles           143
  5   Cazenovia             150           Sauquoit Valley       147
  6   Sauquoit Valley       155           Jordan-Elbridge       154
  7   Jordan-Elbridge       177           Cazenovia             163
  8   Clinton               195           Clinton               190
  9   Canastota             204           Canastota             203
  10  Holland Patent        205           Holland Patent        211
  11  Ilion                 238           Ilion                 242
  12  Adirondack            358           Adirondack            374

							

Post-Race Comments ... The team race ran reasonably close to form with Tully winning handily (followed by CBA, Pulaski and Skaneateles) ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) was an impressive individual winner.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like the Section 3 Boys, the Section 3 Girls have a group of teams State-ranked ... Tully is currently ranked 3rd in the State ... Tully won the OHSL Championship meet handily (beating Pulaski, CBA, Skaneateles, Cazenovia, etc) ... For Tully, this is the best girl's team in school history (even better than the team that finished 2nd at States to Bronxville in 1999 by two points) ... Coach Michelle Rauber (a former collegiate All-American who ran for Jack Daniels at Cortland State (maiden name Michelle Franklin)) has developed excellent team depth which is a nice advantage.

CBA and Pulaski seem fairly close ... Pulaski beat CBA at OHSL Championships, but CBA was missing one of their top runners (Carol Giblin).

Individual Race ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) is the favorite; unfortunately, Allison has been hampered by injuries much of the season (she skipped the CSC Championship meet, but is expected to race at sectionals) ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski), in her first season of XC, has been improving steadily (she won the OHSL Championship meet impressively) ... Rachel Hosie (Skaneateles), Katie Brislin (CBA) and  Kelseigh Groth (Tully) are expected to contend for the next individual places.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           49           Fabius-Pompey          52  
  2   Fabius-Pompey          50           Beaver River           65  
  3   Remsen                108           Remsen                 85  
  4   Weedsport             137           South Lewis           116  
  5   South Lewis           157           Weedsport             153  
  6   LaFayette             187           Utica Notre Dame      183  
  7   Old Forge             187           Cooperstown           186  
  8   Cooperstown           213           LaFayette             189  
  9   Utica Notre Dame      214           Cato Meridian         236  
  10  Cato Meridian         283           Port Byron            285  
  11  Port Byron            289           West Canada           294  
  12  Oriskany              314           Oriskany              308  
  13  West Canada           343           Poland                349  
  14  Poland                396           Sandy Creek           383  
  15  Waterville            426           New York Mills        403  
  16  New York Mills        430
  17  Westmoreland          461
  18  Sandy Creek           478
				

Post-Race Comments ... Fabius-Pompey popped their best team performance of the season to win their first sectional XC title ... Beaver River's team depth was not enough for this race (they had 7 finishers before Fabius' 5th finisher) ... Victoria Campanian (South Lewis) won impressively.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the perennial favorite in Class D ... I expected that would be the case again ... But this year, Beaver River is more of a co-favorite due to the late season emergence of Fabius-Pompey.

Beaver River won the Frontier League Championship handily and then finished 5th in the merge at the Adirondack Invitational ... Beaver River has an advantage in team depth (at the #4, #5 and #6 positions), and that might be their key in winning.

Fabius-Pompey rested some of their top runners at OHSL Championships ... At the Patriot League meet, Fabius finished 3rd (only 13 points behind Pulaski) ... They also ran well at the ESM Invitational ... Fabius has been showing nice improvement throughout the season ... The addition of Erin McConnell (moved-up from the junior high team earlier in the season) was clearly beneficial in Fabius's challenge.

Fabius-Pompey seems positioned to upset Beaver River ... However, Beaver River has been in close contests before and done very well ... Beaver River's experience and depth give them a very slight edge, but the Class D title could go either way.

Individual Race ... Eighth-grader Victoria Campanian (South Lewis) won both the Frontier League meet and a division of the Adirondack Invitational making her the favorite to win the individual title ... Samantha Moade (DeRuyter) has been consistently good and is expected to qualify for States as an individual