| Team Predictions - NXN Northeast & NY Qualifiers 2008 |
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 29, 2008
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 25, 2008 ...... Actual Scores Added November 29, 2008 |
[ Boys Northeast ] ... [ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls Northeast ] ... [ Girls NY ]
| Boys Northeast NXN Qualifier - New Jersey top two picks |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Team Score School Team Score
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1 West Windsor P North NJ 72 West Windsor P. North NJ 71
2 Don Bosco NJ 83 Don Bosco NJ 75
3 North Penn PA 114 North Allegheny PA 83
4 North Allegheny PA 145 Danbury CT 122
5 Danbury CT 170 Morris Hills NJ 148
6 Bishop Guertin NH 196 North Penn PA 166
7 Christian Bros NJ 208 Bishop Guertin NH 181
8 Haddonfield Mem NJ 215 Christian Bros NJ 239
9 Mansfield MA 244 Old Bridge NJ 248
10 Morris Hills NJ 252 Mendham NJ 255
11 Mendham NJ 284 Mansfield MA 259
12 Germantown Friends PA 286 Germantown Friends PA 270
13 Bishop Hendricken RI 289 Bishop Hendricken RI 278
14 Merrimack NH 316 Amherst Regional MA 297
15 Conard CT 318 Conard CT 310
16 Amherst Regional MA 325 ---
17 Old Bridge NJ 370 ---
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Link to NE Boys List of
Individual Runner Projections (speed ratings used to project team
scores). West Windsor Plainsboro North (NJ) is the projected winner (they won the New Jersey MOC very impressively last Saturday) ... Don Bosco (NJ) also ran well at the New Jersey MOC and is predicted to grab the second automatic qualifying bid to NXN Nationals. North Penn (PA) and North Allegheny (PA) are projected 3rd and 4th ... Neither team ran their best at the PA State Meet (both had better ratings at their respective PA District meets which are factored into the predictions) ... North Penn could win an automatic qualifying spot if they duplicate their excellent speed performance from the Manhattan Invitational ... Danbury (CT) is not far behind and could better the prediction. Sophomore Joe Rosa (West Windsor Plainsboro N) finished second at the NJ MOC and is favored to be the individual winner of the race.
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| Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Shenendehowa & FM favored to qualify |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
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1 Shenendehowa 68 02-AA Shenendehowa 62
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 79 03-AA Fayetteville-Manlius 70
3 Burnt Hills 113 02-A Honeoye Falls-Lima 82
4 Shoreham-Wading River 116 11-B Shoreham Wading River 83
5 Honeoye Falls-Lima 121 05-B Burnt Hills 109
6 Arlington 145 01-AA Arlington 144
7 Warwick Valley 172 09-AA McKee/Staten 182
8 East Aurora 194 06-B Rush Henrietta 203
9 Monsignor Farrell 216 CHSAA Port Washington 208
10 McKee/Staten 225 PSAL Monsignor Farrell 245
11 Rush-Henrietta 227 05-AA --- (no East Aurora)
12 Port Washington 263 08-AA --- (no Warwick Valley)
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Shenendehowa
is favored (they won both States and Federations) ... However (in terms
of speed), Shen's performance at States was significantly better
than at Feds (average speed rating of 185.5 vs 179.6) ... If
Shenendehowa repeats their Federation performance in this race,
Fayetteville-Manlius is likely to win (but I expect Shen will
run better). Very little separates Burnt Hills, Shoreham Wading River and Honeoye Falls-Lima ... all are within reach of an automatic qualifying spot ... Burnt Hills beat FM at the McQuaid Invite earlier in the season which may come into play regarding NXN "points" and "at-large" selections. The top finisher is likely to be either Alex Hatz (FM), Alex Leauchanka (Shen) or Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills), Alex Deir (HFL), Bobby Andrews (SWR), Paul Merriman (FM), Mike Hickey (Pearl River), Adam Doherty (Arlington) and John Muller (Arlington) may be close as well.
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| Girls Northeast NXN Qualifier - Massachusetts top two picks |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Team Score School Team Score
======================= ======= ========================= =====
1 Newton South MA 48 Lincoln Sudbury MA 53
2 Lincoln-Sudbury MA 61 Newton South MA 66
3 Emmaus PA 90 Glastonbury CT 93
4 Glastonbury CT 123 Phillips Andover MA 119
5 Phillips Andover MA 125 Emmaus PA 120
6 Ridge NJ 196 South Brunswick NJ 167
7 Pope John XXIII NJ 212 La Salle Academy RI 183
8 Red Bank Catholic NJ 212 Pope John XXIII NJ 214
9 Toms River North NJ 225 Toms River North NJ 224
10 La Salle Academy RI 228 Red Bank Catholic NJ 240
11 South Brunswick NJ 245 Hunterdon NJ 279
12 Barrington HS-RI 268 East Greenwich RI 290
13 East Greenwich RI 316 Barrington HS-RI 310
14 Holyoke Catholic MA 357 Holyoke Catholic MA 345
15 Hunterdon NJ 391 ------
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Link to NE Girls
List of Individual Runner Projections (speed ratings used to project
team scores). Newton South (MA) and Lincoln-Sudbury (MA) are favored to finish one-two (that's how they finished at the MA State Meet) ... Emmaus (PA) is within striking distance and could win an automatic qualifying position with a great team performance. Glastonbury (CT) and Phillips Academy (Andover, MA) seem evenly matched for the 4th and 5th spots ... Phillips Academy is a private prep school (they won the NEPSTA Division 1 Championship).
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| Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite |
Predicted ACTUAL
School Score Section School Score
=================== ======= ======= ===================== =====
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 34 03-AA Fayetteville-Manlius 25
2 Burnt Hills 66 02-A Saratoga 63
3 Saratoga 69 02-AA Burnt Hills 71
4 Queensbury 82 02-A Queensbury 79
5 Shenendehowa 104 02-AA Shenendehowa 107
6 East Aurora 149 06-B East Aurora 134
7 Arlington 216 01-AA Honeoye Falls-Lima 227
8 Hilton 253 05-AA Arlington 241
9 Rush-Henrietta 254 05-AA Hilton 254
10 Honeoye Falls-Lima 256 05-B Rush Henrietta 272
11 Fairport 260 05-AA Fairport 295
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Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the solid
favorite (no surprise) ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for
this race (and NXN Nationals). Burnt Hills , Saratoga and Queensbury are separated by only 16 points in the projection ... Burnt Hills seems to be improving (they beat Saratoga and Queensbury at Federations), so they are the slight favorite to grab the second automatic qualifying spot to NXN ... Good performances by the top five Saratoga runners gives Saratoga a real shot at finishing second ... Queensbury is definitely within reach with a great performance (and Shenendehowa is capable also). Very little (in terms of speed) separates the four Section 5 teams (flip a coin). Courtney Chapman (FM) is favored to be the top finisher in the race (she won impressively at both sectionals and States) ... If Courtney Chapman had the opportunity to run Footlocker NE, I would make her a very solid favorite to quality (and possibly win the race) ... Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) and Samantha Roecker (Burnt Hills) are expected to be the next two finishers (Roecker seems to be rounding into form). Samantha Nadel (North Shore), Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield), Lizzie Predmore (Shen) and Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) have decent chances at the five "Individual" qualify spots (for runners not on qualifying teams).
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| Northeast - Boys Projected Team Scoring by Speed Ratings |
Team Team Place Runner Grade School Team Rating Score ----- ---------------------- ----- ------------------------- ------ ----- 1 Joe Rosa SO West Windsor P North NJ 193.0 72 4 James Rosa SO West Windsor P North NJ 187.0 17 Ryan Sleeper SR West Windsor P North NJ 180.0 20 Tyler Corkedale SR West Windsor P North NJ 179.0 30 Anthony Lee SR West Windsor P North NJ 175.0 44 Jonathan Squeri JR West Windsor P North NJ 172.0 108 Stephen Ellwood SR West Windsor P North NJ 150.0 3 Leighton Spencer SR Don Bosco NJ 188.0 83 12 Robert Molke SR Don Bosco NJ 181.7 13 Rafael Vargas JR Don Bosco NJ 181.0 26 Michael Belgiovine JR Don Bosco NJ 176.5 29 Howard Rosas JR Don Bosco NJ 175.3 53 Brendan Offer SR Don Bosco NJ 169.7 71 Erik Lapinski SO Don Bosco NJ 163.5 6 Brad Miles 11 North Penn PA 185.0 114 10 Sam Bernitt 11 North Penn PA 183.0 15 Brian Quintrell 12 North Penn PA 180.3 36 Tim Stauring 12 North Penn PA 173.7 47 Brian Kuntzmann 12 North Penn PA 171.3 55 Dominic Camasso 12 North Penn PA 169.5 114 Alex Dellobuono 10 North Penn PA 145.0 11 Ryan Gil 10 North Allegheny PA 182.5 145 24 Chase Broussard 12 North Allegheny PA 177.7 32 Patrick Morgan 12 North Allegheny PA 175.0 33 Will Appman 12 North Allegheny PA 174.5 45 Eric Balaban 11 North Allegheny PA 172.0 65 Matt Robertson 12 North Allegheny PA 164.5 97 Jay Cadwallader 11 North Allegheny PA 156.0 5 Tucker Schaefer 12 Danbury CT 185.5 170 27 Levi Wallace 12 Danbury CT 176.0 28 Kevin Russell 12 Danbury CT 175.9 52 Joseph Bubniak 12 Danbury CT 170.0 58 Daniel Bubniak 12 Danbury CT 166.0 62 Christopher Pristou 12 Danbury CT 165.0 102 Unknown Danbury CT 154.0 7 Hernandez, Francis 11 Bishop Guertin NH 185.0 196 18 LaCoste, Jeff 10 Bishop Guertin NH 180.0 21 Jourdain, Joey 11 Bishop Guertin NH 179.0 66 Fontanella, Trent 11 Bishop Guertin NH 164.1 84 Warren, Jeffrey 12 Bishop Guertin NH 162.0 95 Latham, Brandon 9 Bishop Guertin NH 157.0 119 Dow, Tim 10 Bishop Guertin NH 133.8 8 Mike Mazzaccaro 10 Christian Bros NJ 184.0 208 31 Dan Bailey 11 Christian Bros NJ 175.0 35 Brendan Swan 12 Christian Bros NJ 174.0 49 Dennis Smith 12 Christian Bros NJ 171.0 85 Dan Mykityshyn 10 Christian Bros NJ 161.0 90 Mark Lee 11 Christian Bros NJ 159.0 99 Peter Costa 11 Christian Bros NJ 155.0 25 Jonathan Vitez JR Haddonfield Mem NJ 177.5 215 40 Colin Baker JR Haddonfield Mem NJ 172.5 46 Benjamin Potts JR Haddonfield Mem NJ 171.5 50 Matthew Nussbaum SO Haddonfield Mem NJ 171.0 54 Raymond Schlitt JR Haddonfield Mem NJ 169.5 91 David Twitchell JR Haddonfield Mem NJ 159.0 104 Ethan Quanci SO Haddonfield Mem NJ 153.0 22 Collins, Shayne SO Mansfield MA 178.5 244 34 McGowan, Patrick JR Mansfield MA 174.0 51 Grimes, Patrick SR Mansfield MA 170.0 67 Boyle, Brendan JR Mansfield MA 164.0 70 Meagher, Kevin SR Mansfield MA 163.5 75 Hernon, Matt JR Mansfield MA 162.6 112 Brodin, Josh SR Mansfield MA 145.0 2 Sean Pohorence SR Morris Hills NJ 193.0 252 43 Tyler Hendrickson SR Morris Hills NJ 172.3 59 Vinny Chiusano SR Morris Hills NJ 165.9 68 Liam Tansey SR Morris Hills NJ 164.0 80 Lucas Clyne SR Morris Hills NJ 162.0 101 Joseph Barraro SR Morris Hills NJ 154.3 116 Christopher Bongo SR Morris Hills NJ 141.5 9 Michael Franklin SR Mendham NJ 183.9 284 41 Ryan Savercool SR Mendham NJ 172.5 61 Jon Riley SR Mendham NJ 165.5 81 Clay Rotar SO Mendham NJ 162.0 92 James Frick SR Mendham NJ 158.7 93 Peter Ehmann FR Mendham NJ 158.0 115 Christian Herridge SR Mendham NJ 142.5 19 Gus McKenzie 11 Germantown Friends PA 179.5 286 39 Tom Waterman 11 Germantown Friends PA 173.0 57 Ross Wistar 11 Germantown Friends PA 167.0 77 Evan Caldwell 10 Germantown Friends PA 162.5 94 David Waterman 10 Germantown Friends PA 158.0 100 Fenn Hoffman 12 Germantown Friends PA 154.7 109 Sam Butler, Jr 11 Germantown Friends PA 149.0 16 Jake Sienko JR Bishop Hendricken RI 180.2 289 48 Brian Doyle JR Bishop Hendricken RI 171.1 63 Jim Desmarais SR Bishop Hendricken RI 165.0 79 Alex DaPonte JR Bishop Hendricken RI 162.1 83 Ross Riordan JR Bishop Hendricken RI 162.0 87 Michael MacKenzie JR Bishop Hendricken RI 160.4 105 Ryan Meehan SO Bishop Hendricken RI 153.0 23 Harshman, Steve 11 Merrimack NH 177.7 316 38 Conlin, John 9 Merrimack NH 173.0 56 Haggerty, Ryan 12 Merrimack NH 169.0 96 Dancy, Jake 12 Merrimack NH 156.7 103 Busby, Chris 9 Merrimack NH 153.9 106 Boardman, Craig 12 Merrimack NH 153.0 118 johnson, Nicholas 10 Merrimack NH 138.8 14 Bryan Marsh 12 Conard CT 180.3 318 64 Kenneth Whitney 12 Conard CT 164.5 69 Luke Perron 10 Conard CT 164.0 73 Daniel Francoeur 11 Conard CT 163.0 98 Nicholas RisCassi 12 Conard CT 155.3 110 Stephen Clarke 12 Conard CT 147.0 113 Fithawi Berhane 12 Conard CT 145.0 37 Brigham, Atticus SR Amherst Regional MA 173.0 325 60 Dumont-McCaffrey, A SR Amherst Regional MA 165.5 74 Lawlor, Michael SR Amherst Regional MA 162.8 76 Elkinton, Barry SR Amherst Regional MA 162.5 78 Dannenhauer, Ray SR Amherst Regional MA 162.4 111 Tincknell, Evan JR Amherst Regional MA 145.1 117 Davies, Ian SO Amherst Regional MA 140.0 42 Billy Crane SR Old Bridge NJ 172.5 370 72 Corey O'Neill JR Old Bridge NJ 163.3 82 Moheb Thomas JR Old Bridge NJ 162.0 86 Vincent Vento JR Old Bridge NJ 161.0 88 Shawn Burke SO Old Bridge NJ 160.0 89 Eric Leight SR Old Bridge NJ 160.0 107 Sean Lunkenheimer SR Old Bridge NJ 152.0 |
| Northeast - Girls Projected Team Scoring by Speed Ratings |
Team Team Place Runner Grade School Team Rating Score ----- ------------------- ----- ----------------------- ------ ----- 3 Karys, Kelsey SR Newton South MA 137.1 48 5 Dahlberg, Bridget SR Newton South MA 134.2 10 Reed, Madeleine JR Newton South MA 131.0 13 O'Keefe, Kathy SO Newton South MA 128.5 17 Golovkina, Olga SR Newton South MA 124.0 36 Fineman, Melanie JR Newton South MA 111.7 72 May, Elizabeth JR Newton South MA 95.0 1 Keklak, Andrea SO Lincoln-Sudbury MA 138.1 61 7 Stock, Corey FR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 133.0 8 Hylton, Ellie SR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 133.0 19 Gossels, Jennifer SR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 123.5 26 Arthur, Claire JR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 118.0 50 Potter, Rachael SR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 103.0 57 Clarke, Holly JR Lincoln-Sudbury MA 99.0 4 Lindsey Graybill 12 Emmaus PA 135.7 90 14 Amanda Faust 11 Emmaus PA 126.3 16 Brianna Faust 11 Emmaus PA 124.7 24 Christina Faust 11 Emmaus PA 118.7 32 Melissa Meade 12 Emmaus PA 113.7 68 Kelsey Coates 11 Emmaus PA 95.7 80 Meaghan Zang 12 Emmaus PA 86.0 6 Kristen Malloy 12 Glastonbury CT 134.0 123 12 Lindsay Crevoiserat 10 Glastonbury CT 128.7 25 Reid Watson 9 Glastonbury CT 118.7 27 Cara Dorris 9 Glastonbury CT 117.0 53 Charlotte Freeland 12 Glastonbury CT 101.5 54 Emily MacEwen 12 Glastonbury CT 101.0 81 Kimberly Halpin 11 Glastonbury CT 85.0 2 Abby Levene 12 Phillips Andover MA 137.5 125 21 Stephanie Moroney 12 Phillips Andover MA 122.4 22 Berol Dewdney 12 Phillips Andover MA 121.5 39 Georgina Norton 12 Phillips Andover MA 109.6 41 Caitlin Kingston 10 Phillips Andover MA 107.1 46 Aubrey Zimmerling 12 Phillips Andover MA 105.4 95 Becca MacRae 12 Phillips Andover MA 74.7 18 Dana Guglielmo SR Ridge NJ 124.0 196 31 Amanda Gracia SR Ridge NJ 114.7 35 Jackie Madden JR Ridge NJ 112.0 38 Francesca Carrone SR Ridge NJ 110.0 74 Sabina Bains FR Ridge NJ 93.0 83 Emily Bradford JR Ridge NJ 84.0 86 Caelainn Carney Ridge NJ 82.0 20 Sarah Cariati SR Pope John XXIII NJ 122.5 212 34 Jenny Heigis SR Pope John XXIII NJ 112.0 43 Catherine Carey JR Pope John XXIII NJ 107.0 55 Marissa Galante JR Pope John XXIII NJ 101.0 60 Alicia Taylor JR Pope John XXIII NJ 98.7 73 Ashton Weiler JR Pope John XXIII NJ 94.0 103 Nicole DiGiacinto SO Pope John XXIII NJ 52.3 15 Michelle Capozzi JR Red Bank Catholic NJ 126.0 212 29 Molly McNamara SO Red Bank Catholic NJ 116.0 45 Emily Rooney SR Red Bank Catholic NJ 106.0 58 Michelle Savarese SR Red Bank Catholic NJ 99.0 65 Hannah Eckstein SO Red Bank Catholic NJ 97.0 84 Keely Eckberg SR Red Bank Catholic NJ 83.0 91 Katie Rochford SR Red Bank Catholic NJ 81.0 11 Angela Rugino SR Toms River North NJ 131.0 225 40 Andrea Mathis SO Toms River North NJ 108.0 51 Johanna Petruski SO Toms River North NJ 102.5 59 Cornelia Szymanski JR Toms River North NJ 99.0 64 Kelly Newcomb JR Toms River North NJ 98.0 79 Ashley Kotran SO Toms River North NJ 87.7 87 Jacqui Kemmer JR Toms River North NJ 82.0 30 Jean Christensen SR La Salle Academy RI 115.0 228 37 Emily Papazian FR La Salle Academy RI 111.0 42 Molly Keating FR La Salle Academy RI 107.0 56 Victoria Beardwood JR La Salle Academy RI 100.5 63 Caroline Capuano SR La Salle Academy RI 98.0 75 Danielle Renzi SO La Salle Academy RI 92.0 77 Siobahn Kelly FR La Salle Academy RI 91.0 28 Sophia Ginez JR South Brunswick NJ 116.5 245 33 Cayla Del Piano FR South Brunswick NJ 113.0 48 Jennifer Smilgis JR South Brunswick NJ 104.0 67 Lyndsey Sample JR South Brunswick NJ 96.0 69 Ashley Edwards SR South Brunswick NJ 95.7 96 Amanda Smilgis JR South Brunswick NJ 73.0 97 Kimberley McGrath SR South Brunswick NJ 73.0 23 Emily Siskind JR Barrington HS-RI 121.0 268 44 Molly Malinowski SO Barrington HS-RI 106.0 47 Sarah Barry JR Barrington HS-RI 104.0 66 Alexandra August SO Barrington HS-RI 96.5 88 Bianca Pearson-Jones SR Barrington HS-RI 81.0 101 Cara Quigley SR Barrington HS-RI 63.0 104 Grace To SO Barrington HS-RI 43.0 52 Therese Kerin SR East Greenwich RI 102.0 316 61 Spencer Dean SR East Greenwich RI 98.0 62 Laura Duff SR East Greenwich RI 98.0 70 Amanda Hallworth SR East Greenwich RI 95.0 71 Mollie Anderson FR East Greenwich RI 95.0 99 Kaeli O'Connell SO East Greenwich RI 65.0 100 Kirstin Kaija SR East Greenwich RI 64.0 9 Veit, Kristen SR Holyoke Catholic MA 131.0 357 82 Wolff, Rachael JR Holyoke Catholic MA 85.0 85 Kuntz, Maggie SR Holyoke Catholic MA 82.0 89 Sypek, Mary SR Holyoke Catholic MA 81.0 92 Powell, Christina JR Holyoke Catholic MA 78.0 93 Fisher, Erica JR Holyoke Catholic MA 76.0 94 Rezendes, Staci FR Holyoke Catholic MA 75.0 49 Allison Payenski 10 Hunterdon NJ 103.0 391 76 Jessica Krystek 10 Hunterdon NJ 91.0 78 Rashmi Singh 11 Hunterdon NJ 87.7 90 Kelsey Stecklow 10 Hunterdon NJ 81.0 98 Brigitte Mania 12 Hunterdon NJ 70.3 102 Juliana Lindner 11 Hunterdon NJ 63.0 105 Abigail Grossman 11 Hunterdon NJ 29.3 |