Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shenendehowa         (02)      38        Shenendehowa           30
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      52        Fayetteville Manlius   47
  3   Warwick Valley       (09)     110        Suffern               116
  4   Suffern              (01)     123        Brockport             131
  5   Brockport            (05)     149        Warwick Valley        134
  6   Walt Whitman         (11)     162        Binghamton            136
  7   Binghamton           (04)     162        Walt Whitman          167
  8   Port Washington      (08)     178        Port Washington       180
  9   Lockport             (06)     195        Lockport              188

		 

Post-Race Comments ... Shenendehowa and Fayetteville-Manlius ran one-two as expected...

In the individual race, Alex Hatz (FM) and Alex Leachanka (Shen) had a great stretch battle with Hatz prevailing (both runners broke the 16:00 barrier at Sunken Maedow in excellent performances).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Shenendehowa is quite possibly one of the top teams in the nation ... Shenendehowa's improved team performances at sectionals and Suburban Council Championships generated speed figures worthy of a national champion ... My one concern is this - both races occurred at Saratoga Park (a place where Shen trains and races frequently) ... It is not uncommon for many teams to post higher speed figures at courses they know well ... and some teams simply race better on certain courses or specific types of courses ... The upcoming championship meets to be contested over two frequently-raced and well-rated courses (Sunken Meadow and Bowdoin Park) will be a good benchmark for Shenendehowa and all other NY teams.

Shenendehowa's major advantage is excellent team depth ... even their #6 and #7 runners posted ratings of 174 and 173 (but again, that occurred at Saratoga Park) ... Team strength at the the #4 and #5 positions suggest Shenendehowa could win States handily.

Fayetteville-Manlius popped an exceptional performance at Jamesville Beach (Section 3 sectionals) ... five of the top six runners had significant seasonal-best performances (and the other, Alex Hatz, posted a 192 rating) ... The top two Fayetteville-Manlius runners (Alex Hatz and Paul Merriman) have been running well all season ... What really helps the Fayetteville-Manlius team effort is the significant improvement of #3 runner Brendan Farrell (seasonal figures of 187, 179, 168, 151) - he was hindered earlier in the season by mononucleosis ... In order to beat Shenendehowa, Fayetteville-Manlius will need some big performances at the #4 and #5 positions.

Warwick Valley stepped-up nicely to win the Section 9 sectional (over Washingtonville who beat Warwick at OCIAA) ... Suffern raced well at Section 1 sectionals in defeating some good teams (Arlington and North Rockland, who are good Federation at-large candidates along with Washingtonville).

Individual Race ... This could be a very interesting race ... Currently, the top 10 Class AA runners have overall speed ratings between 186 and 192 which could indicate a very competitive race ... Top-rated Alex Hatz (FM) is a slight favorite; Hatz was a very impressive winner at sectionals ... Alex Leachanka (Shen) has posted excellent ratings in recent races (191 and 192) and could be considered the co-favorite ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) ran a very good time at divisional championships held at Sunken Meadow (16:11, 191 rating); his performances and familiarity with Sunken Meadow make Raseman a serious contender for the individual title ... John Muller (Arlington) has also posted ratings in the 190s and is a potential winner.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      34        Burnt Hills            51
  2   Wantagh              (08)      68        Pittsford Mendon       69
  3   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      70        Wantagh                74
  4   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     100        Jamesville DeWitt      93
  5   Fox Lane             (01)     102        Fox Lane              103
  6   Half H Hills West    (11)     164        Half H Hills West     125
  7   Maine-Endwell        (04)     182        Maine-Endwell         176
  8   Hutch Tech           (06)     188        Hutch Tech            196
  9   Goshen               (09)     201        Goshen                223
 10   Massena              (10)     310        -------                -

		

Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the speed ratings did a good job predicting the Boys Class A race ... However, Burnt Hills was not quite as dominating as expected (but they still won comfortably).

Joe Whelan (Hamburg) won the individual title very handily (with a 194 speed rating); he did not look nearly as tired as many runners finishing the challenging Sunken Meadow course ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) finished second as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is the solid favorite in Class A  ... Burnt Hills has raced well all season ... they needed a good performance to beat Section 2 rival Queensbury at sectionals by 10 points (Queensbury would probably do very well in this race if allowed to run).

Wantagh and Pittsford-Mendon seem very evenly matched (a real pick-em for betting purposes).

Individual Race ... Joe Whelan (Hamburg), the pre-season #1 rated runner, is running very nicely after a slow start (presumably due to injury); Whelan won a division of the Suffolk Officials Invite at Sunken Meadow in October ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) has run well all season and is a definite contender for the individual win.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shoreham-Wading Riv  (11)      43        Honeoye Falls-Lima     41
  2   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      58        Shoreham Wading Riv    45
  3   East Aurora          (06)      88        East Aurora            91
  4   Windsor              (04)     121        Windsor               116
  5   Westhill             (03)     143        Red Hook              140
  6   Red Hook             (09)     158        Westhill              170
  7   Broadalbin-Perth     (02)     178        Broadalbin Perth      185
  8   Manhasset            (08)     179        Manhasset             194
  9   Byram Hills          (01)     199        Byram Hills           195
 10   Beekmantown          (07)     235        Beekmantown           238
 11   Canton               (10)     277        Canton                281

		

Post-Race Comments ... Honeoye-Falls rose to the occasion and upset the local favorite (Shoreham Wading River) ... the other teams ran close to predicted form (with Red Hook and Westhill switching places).

In the individual race, Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) put on a good late race move to open a gap on Alex Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima), Mike Hickey (Pearl River) and Bobby Andrews (Shoreham-Wading River) ... Stogsdill crossed the finish-line completely exhausted, and the other contenders looked very tired as well.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Shoreham-Wading River enters the race as the top-ranked Class B team and the favorite to win States in back-to-back years ... Shoreham-Wading River has two advantages on the competition, (1) better depth through six runners and (2) frequent racing and training at Sunken Meadow where they race very well.

Honeoye Falls-Lima is usually one of the top Class B teams in NY State (this season is no different) ... team scoring improved nicely with the improvement of #3 runner Ethan Wickus ... East Aurora is not that far behind, and East Aurora is certainly capable of a big team performance.

Individual Race ... Class B has some really good runners and this race could be very interesting to watch ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) is the slight favorite; Chris has performed well all season (his only loss came at Manhattan where he was beaten by Solomon Haile, one of the best runners in the nation) ...  Within striking distance are Bobby Andrews (Shoreham-Wading River) who can be expected to run very well at Sunken Meadow, Alex Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) who was last year's Class B champion, and Mike Hickey (Pearl River) ... A very good final race of the day.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Newark Valley        (04)      67        Newark Valley          62
  2   Holland Patent       (03)      79        Holland Patent         63
  3   Gowanda              (06)     112        Irvington             107
  4   James O'Neill        (09)     120        Gowanda               123
  5   Irvington            (01)     127        James O'Neill         136
  6   Berne-Knox-Westerlo  (02)     135        Berne Knox Westerlo   148
  7   Oyster Bay           (08)     144        Pembroke              154
  8   Pembroke             (05)     155        Oyster Bay            175
  9   Babylon              (11)     226        Babylon               231
 10   Potsdam              (10)     268        Potsdam               254
 11   Saranac Lake         (07)     271        Saranac Lake          264
		

Post-Race Comments ... Newark Valley held-off Holland Patent in the closest contest of the day.

Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) won easily with Robbie Argentine (Canastota) second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Newark Valley is the defending Class C champion and the favorite to win again ... Newark Valley beat Holland Patent at the Marathon Invitational ... Newark Valley's main advantage is team depth through six runners.

Holland Patent has good depth as well ... they won sectionals with their #1 runner finishing in 8th-place and #5 in18th-place (a good pack) ... In this race, Holland Patent is not far behind Newark Valley and definitely within reach of an upset win.

Individual Race ... Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) is the solid favorite to win the individual title ... A large group of runners appear to be in contention for the runner-up spot ... they include Robbie Argentine (Canastota), Steve Petramale (Lake George), Cody Stanton (Jordan-Elbridge), and Aaron Walker (Canastota).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River         (03)      53        Beaver River           56
  2   Notre Dame-Batavia   (05)      86        Barker                 81
  3   Seton Catholic-Plat  (07)      87        Notre Dame-Batavia     82
  4   Hawthorne Valley     (02)      95        Hawthorne Valley       94
  5   Barker               (06)     100        Norwood Norfolk       101
  6   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     123        Seton Catholic-Platts 105
  7   Seton Catholic-Bing  (04)     164        Seton Catholic-Bing   167
  8   SS Seward            (09)     190        Stony Brook           229
  9   Stony Brook          (11)     248        SS Seward             261
 10   Haldane              (01)     320        Haldane               277
		

Post-Race Comments ... Beaver River won pretty much as expected.

Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) won handily be a 28 second margin ... Jon Eng (Norwood-Norfolk) and Casey Gilbert (Berlin) finished 2nd and 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending Class D champion ... and just like last year, Beaver River is the favored, in large part, on team depth compared to the other teams in the race.

Notre Dame-Batavia, Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh, Hawthorne Valley and Barker are separated by very little ... performance at the #3, #4 and #5 positions is quite variable amongst these teams, so whichever team can perform at those positions will do well.

Individual Race ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) is the top-ranked Class D runner and the favorite to win ... close behind are Casey Gilbert (Berlin), Jon Eng (Norwood-Norfolk) and Dan Young (Seton Catholic-Binghamton) ... another group of runners are also within reach that includes Matt Cheney (Beaver River), and Austin Lane (Greenwich).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      21        Fayetteville-Manlius   22
  2   Saratoga             (02)      39        Saratoga               48
  3   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     131        Arlington             116
  4   Bay Shore            (11)     132        Bay Shore             116
  5   Arlington            (01)     133        Monroe-Woodbury       123
  6   Rush-Henrietta       (05)     160        Syosset               177
  7   Syosset              (08)     173        Rush Henrietta        186
  8   West Seneca West     (06)     198        West Seneca West      193
  9   Corning              (04)     210        Corning               195
		

Post-Race Comments ... The Girls Class AA race ran close to predicted form with Fayetteville-Manlius scoring 22 points and Saratoga finishing 2nd comfortably ... Arlington, Bay Shore and Monroe-Woodbury finished close in the scoring as expected.

Courtney Chapman (FM) was awesome once again in winning the race ... I would love to see Courtney Chapman race Emily Lipari (the Class A winner) at this point in the season, but I do not believe that will happen ... Maybe next year they will race each other during the championship portion of the season, but I fear that will not happen either ... New York State high school racing has changed with the advent of NTN and NXN.

Shelby Greany (Suffern) finished 2nd with Hannah Luber (FM) 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Theoretically, Fayetteville-Manlius could score 15 in the Class AA race (but that's a long shot) ... It would be a major accomplishment if Fayetteville-Manlius can even come close to 15 in a State Meet at Sunken Meadow ... New York State has three championship XC courses that are run frequently by local runners and runners from around the State (Van Cortlandt Park, Bowdoin Park and Sunken Meadow) ... Fayetteville-Manlius nearly broke the Saratoga 2004 team average record at Van Cortlandt Park ... Fayetteville-Manlius has the second-best team average at Bowdoin (behind Saratoga 2004) ... Hopefully, the weather will be good at Sunken Meadow on Saturday as this could be another benchmark race to rate Fayetteville-Manlius 2008.

Saratoga ran very well at sectionals ... they beat several Section 2 teams who might do very nicely in this race if the rules allowed those teams to run ... Like many teams in Section 2, Saratoga has popped some excellent performances at Saratoga Park (generally better ratings than at other courses) ... Sunken Meadow could be a good test of their overall team ability.

Monroe-Woodbury, Bay Shore and Arlington seem evenly matched ... The handicapper in me tends to like a local team familiar with the course (Bay Shore), but it looks like a statistical pick-em for betting purposes.

Individual Race ... Courtney Chapman (FM) was awesome at sectionals at Jamesville Beach ... the course was soft and tiring, and virtually all runners looked exhausted at the finish (except Chapman) ... Lizzie Predmore (Shenendehowa) has been outstanding; she not only won the sectional Class AA race, she broke the 17:00-mark at Saratoga Park in winning the Suburban Council (and a 154 speed rating) ... Chapman and Predmore raced each other at Manhattan with Chapman prevailing (but that was a 4K race) ... Three-time Footlocker Finalist Shelby Greany (Suffern) is always a threat to win a race like this; do not be surprised if Greany pops a big performance to win ... Hannah Luber (FM) is also capable of popping a big performance.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      21        Burnt Hills            23 
  2   Cornwall             (09)      69        Cornwall               57 
  3   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      77        Pittsford Mendon       86 
  4   Ursuline             (01)      99        Ursuline              104 
  5   Vestal               (04)     171        Vestal                144 
  6   MacArthur            (08)     184        MacArthur             179 
  7   Kings Park           (11)     186        Whitesboro            190 
  8   Whitesboro           (03)     195        Starpoint             190 
  9   Starpoint            (06)     209        King Park             199 
		

Post-Race Comments ... This race ran very close to predicted form.

Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) was setting the pace for much of the race with Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) close behind ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) was gapped off the pace by a fair margin  at times ... With 800 meters (or so) remaining, we could see Lipari closing the gap on the other side of creek approaching the finish (Aisling Cuffe had taken the lead from Winslow) ... Emily Lipari has excellent finishing speed - she took the lead with a bit over 100 meters remaining and won going away impressively.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is a very solid favorite in the Class A race ... Burnt Hills needed an excellent performance to beat Queensbury at the Section 2 championships (Queensbury would be a solid favorite if they were at States instead of Burnt Hills).

Cornwall and Pittsford Mendon are fairly close in the projected scores (Ursuline is not far back) ... the performance of the #3, #4 and #5 runners will likely make the difference (as it does in many races).

Individual Race ... Last year's individual battle between Emily Lipari (Roslyn) and Samantha Roecker (Burnt Hills) was a classic ... Now add in Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) and Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) ... This could be one of the best races of the day ... Emily Lipari (6th at Footlocker Finals last year) is rounding into form for the championship portion of the XC season ... Danielle Winslow has popped back-to-back speed ratings of 153 and 154 (and that places her with the top runners in NY and at the Footlocker Finalist level) ... Aisling Cuffe has been improving consistently - her 18:19.3 time at the Section One Coaches Invite is the 16th fastest girl's time in Bowdoin Park history (it received a 149 speed rating) ... Samantha Roecker has the 15th fastest time ever at Bowdoin (18:18.5 last year).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Pearl River          (01)      49        East Aurora            46
  2   East Aurora          (06)      52        Pearl River            69
  3   North Shore          (08)      69        North Shore            73
  4   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)     118        Honeoye Falls-Lima    125
  5   Broadalbin-Perth     (02)     142        Maine Endwell         136
  6   Maine-Endwell        (04)     143        Broadalbin Perth      139
  7   Shoreham Wading Riv  (11)     189        Canton                181
  8   Canton               (10)     214        Shoreham Wading Riv   212
  9   New Paltz            (09)     235        New Paltz             235
 10   Westhill             (03)     252        Westhill              255
 11   Plattsburgh          (07)     306        Plattsburgh           314
		

Post-Race Comments ... The East Aurora girls rose to the occasion once again at the NY State Meet (and that is not a surprise) ... Sunken Meadow is a "strength" course and is suited East Aurora very nicely ... Pearl River has a young team and will certainly be formidable at next year's State Meet at Plattsburgh State ... the remainder of the team race ran reasonably close to form.

Brenna Symoniak (Amherst) won the individual title with her best race of the year ... Lauren Mullins (Johnson City) ran close to form to finish 2nd ... Samantha Nadel (North Shore) equaled her seasonal-best to finish 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the three-time defending Class B champion ... But this year, Dan Doherty's youth-squad from Pearl River will be a serious obstacle to overcome (the Pearl River squad includes 3 freshmen and three sophomores) ... Coach Walt McLaughlin has developed an excellent XC program at East Aurora (he did the same while coaching at Beaver River) ... the East Aurora girls have risen to the occasion very nicely in recent races at State Meets, and I expect the same this year (I believe that will make the score close) ... The computer numbers give the advantage to Pearl River by as much as eight to ten points on average.

North Shore is not far behind ... they have an excellent one-two punch with Samantha Nadel and Brianna Welch, but North Shore may lack the depth of the top two teams.

Individual Race ... Freshman Lauren Mullins (Johnson City) has been super in recent races and this makes her the favorite to win the individual title ... Freshman Samantha Nadel (North Shore) has been improving with every race and is a serious challenger for the win ... Nadel is from Long Island and finished 2nd in a division of the Pratt Invite at Sunken Meadow (so she has shown the ability to handle the course) ... Improving Brenna Symoniak (Amherst) and Erica Cirino (Cold Spring Harbor) could be the surprises.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Bronxville           (01)      53        Bronxville             47
  2   Rhinebeck            (09)      58        Rhinebeck              51
  3   Tully                (03)      69        Newark Valley          64
  4   Newark Valley        (04)      77        Tully                  89
  5   Fredonia             (06)     115        Fredonia              126
  6   Voorheesville        (02)     162        Saranac Lake          172
  7   Saranac Lake         (07)     193        Voorheesville         187
  8   Mynderse             (05)     200        Mynderse              193
  9   Oyster Bay           (08)     269        Oyster Bay            236
 10   Hampton Bays         (11)     293        Hampton Bays          266
 11   Potsdam              (10)     330        Salmon River ***      355 ***
 
         *** Salmon River ran for Section 10 instead of Potsdam
		

Post-Race Comments ... Bronxville and Rhinebeck ran close to form and finished one-two as predicted ... Newark Valley ran very well to take 3rd with Tully 4th.

Erin Cawley (Newark Valley) won handily ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) finished 2nd (as expected).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville and Rhinebeck are the top-ranked teams in the State and figure to stage a good battle ... Rhinebeck's advantage is having three top-rated runners (Annabel Clarke, Anna Clark and Elizabeth Marvin) ... Rhinebeck's #4 and #5 runners have shown improvement and have been performing nicely (at that gives Rhinebeck a real shot at winning); Rhinebeck's disadvantage is being only five runners deep.

Bronxville's depth could be their key to winning ... Based on current form, Bronxville could have five or six runners (maybe seven) finish before Rhinebeck, Tully and Newark Valley have five finishers ... that will make it difficult to beat Bronxville.  Also, Bronxville has raced twice at Sunken Meadow this season (St. Anthony's Invite and Pratt Invite); Rhinebeck and Tully have not raced at Sunken Meadow.

As everybody knows, unforeseen circumstances can affect team members on any team (and affect predicted scores) ... Common culprits include injuries, sickness, disciplinary actions, family responsibilities and others ... Unfortunately, two of the Tully girls scheduled to compete have fallen prey and will not be able to compete at States (thankfully, neither was a top three runner ... for a change, I know ahead-of-time and am able to adjust the predicted scores) ... One of Tully's advantages was depth at the #4 through #7 runners, but that advantage has been compromised and will require an exceptional team performance for Tully to win (but I'm hopeful).

Newark Valley beat Tully at the McQuaid Invitational and is very capable of posting a good team score ... exceptional races by their #3, #4 and #5 runners give them a shot at winning (starting their team score with a 1 is a nice advantage).

Individual Race ... Erin Cawley (Newark Valley) finished 2nd at States last year and is the favorite to win this year (she has been consistently good all season and can race well over any type of course) ... The chase-pack appears to be a group of nine (or so) runners that includes the three Rhinebeck runners (Annabel Clarke, Anna Clark and Elizabeth Marvin), Samantha Watson (Schuylerville), Caitlin Hudson (Bronxville), Katie Brislin (CBA-Syracuse), and Rachel Hosie (Skaneateles) ... but Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) has been improving all season and enters the race in excellent form (so I believe she has a good shot at finishing second) ... Erin Cawley typically goes-out fast and opens a gap on the field (she is a strength runner, so handling "Cardiac" hill is not likely to be a concern).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      20        Greenwich              30
  2   Seton Catholic-Plat  (07)     102        Geneseo                91
  3   Delhi                (04)     115        Seton Catholic-Platts 107
  4   Geneseo              (05)     115        Delhi                 108
  5   Fabius-Pompey        (03)     126        Fabius-Pompey         137
  6   Sherman              (06)     131        Sherman               139
  7   John A. Coleman      (09)     147        John A. Coleman       145
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     171        Norwood-Norfolk       172
  9   Pierson              (11)     218        Pierson               215
 10   Haldane              (01)     303        Haldane               290
		

Post-Race Comments ... Greenwich won easily ... Geneseo ran very well to grab 2nd (Geneseo was the defending champion entering the race ... they rose to the occasion very nicely last year).

Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield) demonstrated excellent strength from "Cardiac" hill to the finish to win handily ... Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) finished 2nd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Very little to analyze here in terms of the winning team ... Greenwich is an overwhelming favorite to win ... Greenwich won the Class C title last year (an enrollment decrease drops them into Class D this year).

Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh gets the call to finish second (but Delhi, Geneseo (last year's Class D titlist), improving Fabius-Pompey and Sherman are not far behind) ... Seton Catholic #2 runner (Anna Rabideau) is in her first season of cross country (she plays soccer, and this year she was allowed to compete in a second sport in the same season).

Individual Race ...  This could be a very good race between Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) and Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield) ... The horse-handicapper in me notices one particular statistic - All of Henningson's best races have been run at Saratoga Park ... Mooreland has run well over several different courses (plus she finished 4th at the Pratt Invite at Sunken Meadow earlier in the year) ... I expect this race will be close.