?
.... The Top Class AA teams are:
Fayetteville-Manlius
Saratoga
Shenendehowa
Suffern
Arlington
Northport
Guilderland
Ward Melville
Colonie
Valley Central
Warwick Valley
Fayetteville-Manlius ... Defending
National Champions ... The stats say it all (quality and depth). XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Courtney Chapman 10 147 9:48.02 4:46.4
Mackenzie Carter 11 141 10:12.59 4:34.13
Molly Malone 11 137 10:13.0 4:36.92
Hannah Luber 11 142 10:00.60 4:45.02 (indoors)
Kathryn Buchan 12 133 10:12.68 4:45.97
Kristen Buchan 11 125 10:52.92 4:56.83 (indoors)
Meaghan Anklin 12 122 10:53.8 --
Alexandra Chapman 12 122 -- --
Katie Sischo 9 --- 10:46.7 --
Saratoga ... Losing
Hannah Davidson obviously hurts, but Saratoga is still a very
good team (and Saratoga has some young runners that may be very helpful)
... Some stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Cassie Goutos 11 137 10:08.43 4:43.6
Sydney King 10 132 10:09.18 4:49.34
Brianne Bellon 11 121 -- -- (5:03.93 Mile)
Amanda Borroughs 10 117 -- -- (7:30.17 Steeple)
Megan Conway 10 115 10:47.03 4:52.61
Courtney Hayner 11 106 11:16.85 --
Danielle Marino 10 103 11:29.64 --
Keelin Hollowood 8 --- 10:39.93 4:57.96
Shenendehowa ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Cara Jancezko 11 137 10:12.63 4:41.17
Lizzie Predmore 9 133 10:05.05 4:37.82
Meredith Peabody 12 113 10:53.75 5:02.94
Nicole Irving 11 102 -- 4:53.74
Claire Walling 12 99 11:09.41 --
Katie Cummings 12 102 11:15.46 --
Jordan Wescott 11 97 10:39.08 4:54.71 (7:21.30 Steeple)
Gina Stalica 9 --- 10:53.00 5:02.18
Alexandra Burtwick 10 --- 10:57.22 4:57.3
Stefanie Fresenius 11 --- -- 4:57.40
Suffern ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Shelby Greany 12 148 9:48.92 -- (4:52.38 1600m; 6:42.86 Steeple)
Christy Goldman 12 122 10:44.77 4:52.0 (7:13.7 Steeple)
Ursula Svoboda 10 113 -- --
Carol Dugandzic 12 99 -- 4:54.1
Tara Nuccitelli 11 97 -- --
Oliva Muenez 11 90 -- --
Jana Soares 10 84 10:34.6 --
Samantha Randazzo 12 74 11:09.6 -- (7:44.4 Steeple)
Arlington ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Chelsea Hanson 12 125 10:44.3 5:07.9
Brianna Service 12 118 10:47.4 --
Gabriella Gjonaj 11 109 10:44.1 4:55.2
Carolyn Nasr 12 101 -- 5:03.02
Allison Ryley 11 101 11:58.0 --
Hayley McMahon 10 92 -- 4:49.1
Josephine Boyle 10 98 11:39.9 --
Mallory Mecca 11 95 10:55.2 5:15.7
Rachel Sorna 11 --- -- 4:56.5
Victoria Sanford 11 --- -- 4:57.1
Northport ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Kelly Abbate 11 117 -- 4:55.42 (11:32.78 3200m)
Lianne Farber 11 116 -- 4:52.88 (7:18.00 Steeple, 19:32.95 5K)
Samantha D'Amato 11 111 10:30.30 5:01.66
Camille D'Amato 9 104 10:50.01 5:13.64 (7:35.26 Steeple)
Elizabeth Fierro 10 102 11:13.8 -- (7:41.56 Steeple)
Alex Cerussi 12 91 -- --
Elizabeth Jerome 11 87 -- --
... The Top Class A teams are:Burnt
Hills
Queensbury
Pittsford Mendon
Burnt Hills ... By any
criteria, Burnt Hills has three top team runners at a national
level (Sam Roecker, Molly Pezzulo and Meaghan Gregory), and that puts
them in a very select group of teams with a real potential to win the
National Championship (FM is member of this select group as well)
... The stats below show that Burnt Hills is a deep team (FM
has the advantage at the XC rating level, but after that...) ... I look
for "specific markers" that predict potential improvement in track & XC
(and in combination with respect to XC) ... Burnt Hills is
projecting very high with these markers at potential #4 and #5 runners
... My "play-time" simulations not only have Burnt Hills running
even with FM, Burnt Hills was winning simulations
out-right ... However, the "real simulations" place FM as the
solid favorite because of their demonstrated ability at the #4 through
#7 positions in XC ... This season may be more interesting than some
observers expect ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Sam Roecker 12 151 9:42.16 4:33.92
Molly Pezzulo 10 144 10:06.44 4:39.13
Meaghan Gregory 12 131 10:03.48 4:41.05 (6:57.8 Steeple)
Alyssa Drapeau 9 123 10:55.19 5:14.17
Rachael Cyrus 11 122 10:29.52 4:51.72 (5:08.3 Mile Relay split)
Riley Wilk 9 121 10:48.18 5:09.48 (7:36.1 Steeple)
Rachel Stalker 10 119 10:59.10 5:02.24
Carolyn Herkenham 12 115 10:36.35 5:07.28
Kiersten Anderson 12 102 10:42.59 4:55.77
Lizzie Olsen 12 102 10:47.84 5:00.02
Queensbury ... Carly Wynn could be XC rated in the
130s (she ran several races in the 130s in 2007) which gives
Queensbury three top runners with Morgan Muller close behind (that's
why Queensbury is a national caliber team) ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Danielle Winslow 10 137 10:02.45 4:45.15 (6:56.57 Steeple)
Brittany Winslow 10 134 -- 5:05.2
Carly Wynn 10 129 -- --
Morgan Muller 11 125 10:50.39 4:59.34 (7:19.83 Steeple)
Christen Brambley 11 111 11:08.40 5:14.56
Katie Messina 12 100 11:21.93 --
Kristen Lajoie 11 92 11:27.2 -- (7:52.9 Steeple)
Juliann Lajoie 12 --- 11:05.76 --
Colleen Meehl 11 --- -- 5:16.22
Pittsford Mendon ... Some
stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Shaylyn Tuite 10 131 10:13.71 4:42.56
Allie Hallock 9 116 10:28.33 5:02.23 (5:19.79 Mile)
Morgan Atkins 10 112 10:45.30 4:57.97
Katherine Hawes 10 106 -- --
Krista Roncone 9 96 11:16.93 5:10.68
Rachel Cackett 12 90 11:16.06 5:22.05
Samantha Nadel (North Shore)
East Aurora
Pearl River
Honeoye Falls-Lima
North Shore
Johnson City
Maine-Endwell
Although graduating some top runners,
East Aurora returns a solid core of runners with excellent depth
(and team depth may be their main advantage) ... they return with
overall speed ratings of 108 or above: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Catherine Phillips 11 122 10:25.31 --
Megan Hulton 10 117 -- 4:59.19
Erin Crawford 12 113 -- 5:18.40 (7:35.35 Steeple)
Kirsten Weberg 12 113 -- 4:57.0 (7:15.85 Steeple)
Paige Pelton 10 108 -- --
Pearl River is returning a very
talented group of young runners (and probably some new runners) and may be a real contender at States. XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Chelsea Kushner 10 120 10:27.2 4:42.8
Kelli Van Houten 9 105 10:44.5 --
Kerry Guerin 10 105 10:41.2 --
Erica Guerin 10 104 11:14.6 -- (7:32.9 Steeple)
Keeley Bateman 9 93 -- 5:09.1 (5:35.69 1600m)
Honeoye Falls-Lima has been good for many years, and 2008 should be no exception.
North Shore could be a real surprise with the addition of incoming freshman Samantha Nadel (photo at left)... I rarely speculate with new runners (and I'm not sure if she actually runs XC), but I very impressed with Samantha's 3000 meter race at States (10:16.91) ... Coupled with Brianna Welch, North Shore could have a very potent top duo (and a much lower score than projected above).
Johnson City and Maine-Endwell could have a very interesting race at Section 4 Championships ... Johnson City has some very good top runners (McKenna Coughlin and Lauren Mullins), but Maine-Endwell could have a tighter pack of scorers).
Tori Flannery (Bronxville)
Bronxville
Tully
Newark Valley
Rhinebeck
Bronxville stats: XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Tori Flannery 12 124 10:13.54 4:46.71
Caitlin Hudson 12 111 -- 4:46.7
Henrietta Miers 11 108 -- 4:57.1 (7:21.9 Steeple)
Olivia Bruton 12 102 -- --
Amelia Phillips 8 --- -- 4:53.9
Tully is returning their top runners (Kelseigh Groth and Kelly Coyne) plus other team scorers, and should be getting some help from incoming modified runners ... Tully will need to run well just to beat Section 3 rivals Canastota, Skaneateles, CBA and others.
Newark Valley has the top Class C individual (Erin Cawley) and they return their entire team from last year's State meet (and I know they have some good young runners) ... Tully may be hard-pressed to beat them again.
XC Rating 3000m 1500m
--------- -------- -------
Cady Kuzmich 10 132 10:48.69 -- (7:20.6 Steeple)
Roxanne Henningson 11 130 10:12.48 4:46.86
Brittney Lane 12 114 11:22.95 5:09.1
Betsy Edinger 10 96 -- 5:13.48
Britney Henderson 12 81 11:35.0 5:34.53