TullyRunners Speed Rating XC Coverage for Fall 2008

...... Bill Meylan (August 24,2008)

Determining speed ratings and maintaining the necessary databases is very time-consuming. Since starting the web-site in 2000, I began covering an increasing number of individuals and teams from around NY State ... The advent of NTN (Nike Team Nationals) in 2004 extended the coverage even more ... I would not have covered NTN in 2004 if the Fayetteville-Manlius boys were not invited, but seeing how well the NY teams rated against the best teams nationally was interesting in a head-to-head race with real results.

Time requirements have gotten burdensome in recent years (if I didn't have a "real job" and other interests, it wouldn't be so bad) ... I blame myself for that because I should have cut-back sooner, but high school XC is interesting and I refuse to do an inadequate job evaluating races if the races are to be rated ... I speed rate races for my own interest and use, and then make the numbers available to the public via the web-site (which adds to the time requirements).

Speed Rating Intentions for Fall 2008

In each of the past several years, I planned to "stop maintaining" TullyRunners because the time requirements were becoming too much, but those plans changed for various reasons (mostly, I got talked out-of-it) ... A number of coaches and runners have asked me to continue this season, while some coaches and runners have again asked me to stop (more on that below).

The one sentence above is key ("I speed rate races for my own interest and use"), and I intend to continue doing that for 2008 ... BUT the extent and depth of coverage is to be determined ... I have decided to continue posting speed ratings (and maintain the public XC databases and rankings), but it may not occur on a regular basis ... It will depend entirely on how much time I can allot to the process (in other words, "play-it-by-ear").

As a note of information, my "real job" is an environmental scientist (working for Syracuse Research Corporation, Environmental Science Center) ... Primarily, I work on contracts for the US Environmental Protection Agency developing environmental fate & transport prediction models and computer software ... The government fiscal year ends at the end of September, and many governmental agencies (who have with-held funding during the year) need to spend available funds by that time (or lose funding) ... So the rush and volume of work in late summer and early fall can be very demanding (especially when they are continuation contracts that need renewing and top performance, and only a few qualified people are available to do the work .. this year is especially busy).

TullyRunners.com began posting speed ratings and XC rankings in the fall of 2000. This will be the 9th-year TullyRunners has posted speed ratings. The concept and process of actually applying equine speed ratings to high school XC runners took shape in 1998 and 1999 (for information on speed ratings, see Speed Rating article from August 2007 and other articles on the Articles web-page).

Are Speed Ratings a Bad Idea for High School XC ??

Beginning early-on and continuing to the present, various coaches and runners have asked me to stop posting speed ratings, XC rankings & predictions ... Here is a list of selected reasons:

(1) Some coaches truly dislike any type of team ranking, individual ranking and public evaluations of any kind ... They believe actual race results are the only thing that should be available via newspapers or other sources (some believe only abbreviated results should be available, if even that) ... Some coaches like to "hide" their team's ability until the championship races, but the Internet era has made it much more difficult to hide.

(2) One commonly re-occurring reason is that I discourage many runners and teams by either rating them low or showing how good other runners and teams are by comparison.

This is a real concern of mine ... BUT high school sports are competitions ... Scores are kept and reported to newpapers ... Individual race results are posted with corresponding race times ... I believe knowing the performance levels of the competition is a good thing (it can be a motivator), but I also understand it may discourage some teams and runners.

(3) Some well-known coaches want me to stop because I'm doing the work for coaches who are either too lazy or unable to evaluate the competition on their own.

(4) A few high school coaches believe that XC is primarily a team sport and individual rankings should be eliminated completely (individuals get their names listed in results and that's enough for individuals)...

I have a hunch Footlocker would disagree ... Maybe some coaches work for Nike ... Maybe rolling a separate individual championship into a team championship will decrease the importance of the individual ... But maybe an existing model has already proven that teams will lose just as much (if not more) than the individuals ... An article will appear when time permits.

Cross country is both an individual and a team sport ... That's one reason XC is special.

(5) Some coaches get really upset when some "outsider" evaluates their team and runners ... What upsets them the most is that their runners look at TullyRunners and believe the ratings ... As one coach put it, "Meylan has NO business interfering with my team with that garage he posts on Internet! It's my job to evaluate my runners, NOT his!"

Many high school sport teams have scouts evaluate the competition (these scout are "outsiders" to the teams they evaluate) ... TullyRunners posts its "scouting" report publicly for the benefit of coaches, runners, parents, spectators and news media ... Obviously, some coaches do not consider it a benefit.

Here is my current thinking concerning speed ratings:

(a) My main concern is an over-emphasis or mis-application in the use of speed ratings to determine how good or bad a team or individual may be performing ... Speed Ratings are just one piece of information in an overall evaluation, and sometimes, speed ratings are not the most important piece of information.

(b) the Genie is out-of-the-bottle ... But if I could stuff the Speed Rating Genie back into the bottle (so nobody in high school XC knew what a speed rating was), I would.

For those coaches and runners who do not like what TullyRunners does, I fully encourage them to stay away from the TullyRunners.com web-site ... I encourage them to block TullyRunners.com at their high schools (which has been done).