Posted December 6, 2008 ... Boys Projection Results:
PROJECTED TEAM SCORES ACTUAL TEAM SCORES
by Overall Rating by School Names
================================ ================================
1 North Central WA 159 1 North Central WA 134
2 Dana Hills CA 168 2 York IL 151
3 Buchanan CA 203 3 Naperville North IL 195
4 York IL 209 4 The Woodlands 197
5 Shenendehowa 235 5 W Windsor P'boro N NJ 216
6 Naperville North IL 238 6 Don Bosco NJ 216
7 W Windsor P'boro NJ 247 7 Shenendehowa 222
8 Thousand Oaks CA 254 8 Cedar Park TX 223
9 The Woodlands TX 260 9 Buchanan CA 269
10 Loyola CA 261 10 Thousand Oaks CA 280
11 Wayzata MN 264 11 Albuquerque Acad NM 281
12 Bismarck ND 270 12 North Allegeny PA 301
13 Don Bosco NJ 294 13 Jesuit OR 305
14 Jseuit OR 299 14 Bismarck ND 307
15 Jamestown VA 331 15 Loyola CA 309
16 Albuquerque Acad NM 340 16 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 314
17 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 343*** 17 Dana Hills CA 317
18 Broughton NC 368 18 Wayzata MN 341
19 Cedar Park TX 373 19 Jamestown VA 381
20 Alta UT 394 20 Alta UT 435
21 North Allegeny PA 396 21 Danbury CT 466
22 Danbury CT 432 22 Broughton NC 480
*** FM projection without #2 runner
Boys - NXN Team Club, School (State) and NXN Region Club Name School - State Region ------------------- ----------------------- ---------- North Central XC North Central WA Northwest Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA California Buchanan TC Buchanan CA California Kroy TC York IL Midwest Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY New York Naperville North XC Naperville North IL Midwest Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ Northeast Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA California The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX South Loyola XC Loyola CA California Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY New York Wayzata XC Wayzata MN Heartland Demon XC Club Bismarck ND Heartland Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ Northeast Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR Northwest Jamestown XC Jamestown VA Southeast Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM Southwest Capital Distance Broughton NC Southeast Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX South Hawk XC Club Alta UT Southwest Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA Northeast Danbury XC Club Danbury CT Northeast
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BOYS NXN National Projections by Three Different Speed Ratings (RAW Numbers)
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by an OVERALL Rating by NXN REGIONAL Ratings by STATE Meet Ratings
============================= ========================= ========================
1 North Central XC 159 North Central XC 136 North Central XC 145
2 Dana Hills TC 168 Dana Hills TC 136 Dana Hills TC 168
3 Buchanan TC 203 Buchanan TC 156 Buchanan TC 192
4 Kroy TC 209 Loyola XC 204 Clifton Park TC 201
5 Clifton Park TC 235 Kroy TC 206 Knight XC Club 208
6 Naperville North XC 238 Thousand Oaks XC 210 Naperville North XC 238
7 Knight XC Club 247 Demon XC Club 231 Loyola XC 242
8 Thousand Oaks XC 254 Clifton Park TC 232 Crusader Harriers 250
9 The Woodlands TC 260 The Woodlands TC 250 Thousand Oaks XC 255
10 Loyola XC 261 Wayzata XC 255 Kroy TC 257
11 Manlius XC Club 263**** Knight XC Club 284 Bergen XC Club 274
12 Wayzata XC 264 Manlius XC Club 286 Capital Distance 282
13 Demon XC Club 270 Naperville North XC 291 The Woodlands TC 282
14 Bergen XC Club 294 Jamestown XC 309 Manlius XC Club 296
15 Crusader Harriers 299 Bergen XC Club 316 Wayzata XC 319
16 Jamestown XC 331 Crusader Harriers 338 Albuquerque XC 321
17 Albuquerque XC 340 Cedar Park CC 339 Demon XC Club 325
18 Capital Distance 368 Wexford Flats RC 352 Jamestown XC 329
19 Cedar Park CC 373 Albuquerque XC 388 Hawk XC Club 352
20 Hawk XC Club 394 Capital Distance 410 Danbury XC Club 424
21 Wexford Flats RC 396 Hawk XC Club 419 Wexford Flats RC 474
22 Danbury XC Club 432 Danbury XC Club 439 Cedar Park CC 480
**** Dec 4th update - Manlius (FM) #2 runner reported out with an
injury and will not run ... raw numbers indicate their
projected finish-place would drop to 17th (other affected
teams would go up one position each).
Pre-Race Comments ... The first four years of NTN demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.
The projected team scores above are the actual raw scores from the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating
).
One comment about team scores ... In this type of race, the winning team score may be lower than any score listed above ... the winning team will probably run well relative to other teams, and a number of teams will simply have bad races (and those bad races will help lower the scores of the top teams).
Two articles are posted concerning characteristics of top finishing teams at NTN (Article 1 ... Article 2) ... Basically (and not surprisingly), teams with two runners capable of finishing in the top 25 plus a good #5 runner do best at NTN ... I really hate to put pressure on any runner, but the importance of the #4 and #5 runners can not be over-stated in this particular race due to the quality and runner density.
Individual Team Comments:
North Central WA ... North Central is the #1 ranked team in country and they came out on top on all three projections above ... In all honesty, their margin of victory was greater in my initial projections, but I went back and compared my 2007 NTN projections (with respect to North Central and the NW) to the actual results ... Based on an over-rating last year, I re-evaluated this year's ratings and lowered them slightly to still fit my rating method acceptably ... Even with the slight lowering, North Central is still the favorite.
Dana Hills CA and Buchanan CA ... Dana Hills and Buchanan finished 2nd and 3rd in the projections ... The other two California teams (Loyola and Thousand Oaks) also did well in the projections ..... Some people have accused me of over-rating the California teams in general ... I disagree (California is deep and talented) ... I wonder if Portland Meadows is the best facility for some teams?? ... Trying to predict who might be good or bad at Portland Meadows is a guessing game ... I believe the California teams are serious contenders for the win ... Dana Hills and Buchanan have multiple top runners and good depth.
York IL (Kroy TC) ... Once again York looks like a team capable of winning with good performance (that says it all).
Shenendehowa (Clifton
Park XC) ... Shenendehowa did very well in the
projections ... Being a NY guy, I'm very happy to see that
... BUT Shenendehowa did not race particularly well
(for them) in their last two races (NXN regional and NY Federations) ...
They had a great race at NY States (which I used for the State Rating
projection ... Shen was 4th in that projection with a much lower
score) ... Somehow, I think the "overall" projection is placing Shen
a bit too high (hope I'm wrong) ... Shenendehowa does have some
similarities to the 2005 Saratoga Boys team that won NTN (great race at
NY States followed by poorer performance at Bowdoin Park Feds) ...
Shen has all the characteristics of NTN winning team.
Naperville North IL ... Naperville North has the necessary top runners and depth of a team capable of winning NXN ... Their Illinois State Meet race was a better performance than their NXN regional qualifier, and a repeat State performance puts Naperville North in the hunt for a top finish.
West Windsor Plainsboro North NJ (Knight XC Club) ... West Windsor P North popped an excellent performance at the New Jersey Meet of Champions (they were 5th in the State Meet projection above using that race) ... West Windsor P North did not race quite as well at the NXN regional, but that race was held at a NY course (Bowdoin Park) while NJ MOC was held at Holmdel Park (a course the New Jersey teams know well) ... Overall, I did not expect the Northeast teams to race quite as well as the New York teams at Bowdoin Park, and that's what happened ... West Windsor P North has the characteristics of a top finishing NXN team.
The Woodlands TX ... Let me state this up front - If I was subjectively predicting the order of finish, I would move The Woodlands up to at least 5th ... The Woodlands has raced quite well at NTN ... Last year, my ratings projected The Woodlands 10th and they finished 4th ... Either I'm under-rating the Texas runners or The Woodlands is simply capable of rising to the occasion (or both) ... I believe my ratings this year are decent; they project Reed Connor (Woodlands) as the team race winner (and that suggests that Zach Ornelas (TX, and former runner at South Jefferson HS in NY) could do very well as an individual at NXN).
Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Coach Bill Aris has brought FM teams to all four previous NTN Championships - two wins, a 2nd and a 3rd (girls won twice, boys 2nd & 3rd) - That counts for something in my book! ... So if the Fayetteville-Manlius boys race real well, do not be surprised ... At the NXN regional, FM's #2 runner (Paul Merriman) dropped out of the race (a cramp in his calf according to the Syracuse newspaper), and Fayetteville-Manlius came close to upsetting Shenendehowa without Merriman (12 points) ... I'm assuming Merriman will be racing at full strength at NXN ... Dec 4th update - Paul Merriman is reported to have a stress-fracture and is out for the season (according to the Syracuse newspaper) - that will drop them several spots in the projection.
Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... (Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ... See Boys NXN Text file of Data .... Scores below are Combined-Overall Ratings) Projected Top Ten Individual Team Runners ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Reed Connor 12 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 197.2 2 Elias Gedyon 10 Loyola XC Loyola CA 196.7 3 Joash Osoro 12 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 195.6 4 Alex Hatz 11 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 195.2 5 Tyler Valdes 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 195.0 6 Andrew Colley 12 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 195.0 7 Joe Rosa 10 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 194.2 8 Steve Sulkin 12 Kroy TC York IL 193.8 9 Jordan Herbert 12 Kroy TC York IL 192.7 10 Kyle Gibson 12 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 192.0 Overall Speed Team Place Name Grade Club School Rating Score ----- ----------------- ----- ------------------ ----------------------- ------ ----- 11 Andrew Kimpel 12 North Central XC North Central WA 192.0 159 14 Jeff Howard 12 North Central XC North Central WA 191.0 26 Leon Dean 12 North Central XC North Central WA 186.5 34 Ben Johnston 11 North Central XC North Central WA 184.9 74 Alexander Avila 11 North Central XC North Central WA 178.0 114 Casey Adams 10 North Central XC North Central WA 170.3 143 Adam Reid 12 North Central XC North Central WA 160.5 5 Tyler Valdes 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 195.0 168 22 Ryan Valdes 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 187.1 30 Zak Phillips 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 185.1 51 Blake Ahrold 11 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 181.0 60 Taylor Hogshead 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 179.8 97 Anthony Lacambra 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 173.0 112 Josh Dean 12 Dana Hills TC Dana Hills CA 170.5 12 Jonathan Sanchez 12 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 191.5 203 18 Danny Vartanian 12 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 188.5 36 Heath Reedy 12 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 184.3 44 Adam Delton 12 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 182.0 93 Carson Keller 12 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 174.2 111 CJ Albertson 9 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 170.5 121 Kevin Barnard 10 Buchanan TC Buchanan CA 169.0 8 Steve Sulkin 12 Kroy TC York IL 193.8 209 9 Jordan Herbert 12 Kroy TC York IL 192.7 53 Adam Cecil 11 Kroy TC York IL 180.3 62 Jack Driggs 10 Kroy TC York IL 179.5 77 Andrew Smith 11 Kroy TC York IL 176.9 101 Brian Pollastrini 12 Kroy TC York IL 172.5 123 Pat Morgan 12 Kroy TC York IL 169.0 13 Alex Leuchanka 12 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 191.5 235 29 Dan Harris 11 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 185.2 46 Mike Danaher 12 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 181.9 61 Jamie Glover 12 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 179.5 86 Brian Trainor 12 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 175.5 131 Brent Pavlik 12 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 166.0 135 Chris Shartrand 10 Clifton Park TC Shenendehowa NY 162.3 10 Kyle Gibson 12 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 192.0 238 25 David McWilliams 12 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 186.5 41 Tyler Jermann 11 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 182.9 75 Michael Herbert 12 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 177.0 87 Bob Guthrie 11 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 175.1 148 Chris Woodward 11 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 155.1 149 Karsten Jurkiewicz 9 Naperville North XC Naperville North IL 155.0 7 Joe Rosa 10 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 194.2 247 27 James Rosa 10 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 185.5 58 Ryan Sleeper 12 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 180.0 66 Tyler Corkedale 12 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 179.0 89 Anthony Lee 12 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 175.0 104 Jonathan Squeri 11 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 172.0 152 Stephen Ellwood 12 Knight XC Club W Windsor P'boro N NJ 150.0 17 Sean Gildea 12 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 189.0 254 24 Asher Lober 12 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 187.0 38 Kevin Joerger 11 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 183.5 57 Andrew Snyder 12 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 180.0 118 Donald Morrow 12 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 170.0 141 Hans Weidman 12 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 161.0 153 Daniel Smithers 11 Thousand Oaks XC Thousand Oaks CA 146.7 1 Reed Connor 12 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 197.2 260 21 Drew Butler 12 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 187.4 52 Landon Milhorn 12 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 180.9 76 Tommy Sanderson 11 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 177.0 110 Nathan Carbajal 11 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 170.8 124 Tyler Bradley 11 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 168.8 127 Ross Moulder 11 The Woodlands TC The Woodlands TX 168.0 2 Elias Gedyon 10 Loyola XC Loyola CA 196.7 261 16 J.P. Slater 12 Loyola XC Loyola CA 189.0 20 Andres Diaz 12 Loyola XC Loyola CA 188.0 98 Pablo Ruiz 12 Loyola XC Loyola CA 173.0 125 Philip Rostelnik 10 Loyola XC Loyola CA 168.5 129 Noel Mollinedo 10 Loyola XC Loyola CA 167.0 134 John Eggers 12 Loyola XC Loyola CA 163.0 4 Alex Hatz 11 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 195.2 263 23 Paul Merriman 11 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 187.0 37 Brendan Farrell 11 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 184.0 92 Andrew Roache 10 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 174.5 107 Jon Cico 12 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 171.5 109 Mark McGurrin 10 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 171.0 145 Joe Hartnett 11 Manlius XC Club Fayetteville-Manlius NY 158.0 28 Jeremy Drenckhahn 12 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 185.5 264 42 Danny Ducharme 12 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 182.6 59 Oliver Haugland 11 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 180.0 67 Andrew Wasz 12 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 179.0 68 Josh Thorson 9 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 178.4 78 Landon Lozano 11 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 176.7 119 Jon Hackbart 12 Wayzata XC Wayzata MN 170.0 3 Joash Osoro 12 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 195.6 270 35 Devin Huizenga 12 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 184.5 56 Christian Brown Ot 11 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 180.0 63 Josh Nuss 12 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 179.0 113 Josh Hintz 11 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 170.4 130 Dion Schulz 12 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 166.0 133 Brandon Barnes 11 Demon XC Club Bismarck ND 164.0 19 Leighton Spencer 12 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 188.5 294 47 Robert Molke 12 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 181.5 65 Rafael Vargas 11 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 179.0 81 Michael Belgiovine 11 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 176.0 82 Howard Rosas 11 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 175.8 122 Brendan Offer 12 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 169.0 151 Michael Carapezza 11 Bergen XC Club Don Bosco NJ 153.0 48 Ben Demaree 11 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 181.5 299 49 Andy Kiyokawa 12 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 181.3 50 Christian Burger 12 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 181.1 72 Patrick Maag 12 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 178.0 80 Willie Milam 11 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 176.5 95 Winston Neville 12 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 174.0 117 Dalton Petursson 12 Crusader Harriers Jesuit OR 170.0 6 Andrew Colley 12 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 195.0 331 15 Colin Mearns 11 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 190.0 45 John Holt, Sr 12 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 182.0 126 Graham Schlickenmeyer 11 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 168.0 139 Joshua Schlickenmeyer 12 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 161.5 140 Russell Hornsby 11 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 161.0 146 Jacob Morgan 12 Jamestown XC Jamestown VA 156.0 39 Patrick Zacharias 11 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 183.0 340 55 Neil Longenbaugh 10 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 180.0 71 Anthony Lauriello 12 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 178.0 79 Ryan Clark 11 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 176.5 96 Taylor Myrray 12 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 173.1 115 Emmett Wynn 10 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 170.0 120 Harlan Pietz 12 Albuquerque XC Albuquerque Acad NM 169.5 31 Blake Askin 12 Capital Distance Broughton NC 185.0 368 40 Reidy Jones 11 Capital Distance Broughton NC 183.0 94 Burk Staub 12 Capital Distance Broughton NC 174.0 100 Deaton Jones 12 Capital Distance Broughton NC 172.5 103 Pierre Malherbe 11 Capital Distance Broughton NC 172.0 128 Brady Lawrence 12 Capital Distance Broughton NC 167.0 144 Jeff Shirley 12 Capital Distance Broughton NC 160.0 32 Parker Stinson 11 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 185.0 373 64 Jay McIllece 11 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 179.0 83 Sean O'Neil 12 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 175.7 88 Chris Galvin 11 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 175.0 106 Austin Geerts 11 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 171.6 132 Austin Krohn 12 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 165.5 154 Bobby McIllece 11 Cedar Park CC Cedar Park TX 145.0 43 Ryan Gil 10 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 182.5 396 73 Chase Broussard 12 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 178.0 85 Patrick Morgan 12 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 175.5 90 Will Appman 12 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 174.6 105 Eric Balaban 11 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 171.8 138 Matt Robertson 12 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 162.0 147 Jay Cadwallader 11 Wexford Flats RC North Allegheny PA 156.0 54 Jack Webster 12 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 180.2 394 69 Garrett Jones 11 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 178.2 70 Kyle Moffett 12 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 178.1 99 Brian Howell 11 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 172.5 102 Parker Syndergaard 12 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 172.0 136 Blake Bartholomew 12 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 162.0 142 Zach Evens 11 Hawk XC Club Alta UT 160.5 33 Tucker Schaefer 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 185.0 432 84 Levi Wallace 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 175.5 91 Kevin Russell 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 174.5 108 Danny Bubniak 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 171.3 116 Joey Bubniak 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 170.0 137 Chris Pristouris 12 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 162.0 150 Unknown 10 Danbury XC Club Danbury CT 154.0
)
... Saugus is talented and deep ... This year's team definitely
speed rates better than last year's team ... Using the State Meet
ratings, Saugus actually beat FM in a tie-breaker (I had
to go back and check that ... it's a great example of how other team
runners affect all team scores in a top quality race) ... It
demonstrates that Saugus is a serious challenger to win NXN.