Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Liverpool              60           Liverpool              56  
  2   Baldwinsville          67           FM                     58  
  3   FM                     67           Baldwinsville          66  
  4   CNS                   100           West Genesee          105  
  5   West Genesee          141           CNS                   113  
  6   Rome                  153           Rome                  172  
  7   Oswego                203           Auburn                184  
  8   Central Square        210           Central Square        205  
  9   Auburn                215           Oswego                222  
  10  Proctor               300           Proctor               254  
  11  Henninger             318           Corcoran              332  
  12  Corcoran              340
  
			

Post-Race Comments ... A real good race to watch ... When the runners passed me at the mid-point in the race, FM was leading since FM went-out fast, and Baldwinsville was close ... Liverpool was 3rd overall at mid-race (a ways back collectively in positions #3 to #5) and I did not think they would catch up ...But Liverpool ran a great last mile to come on and edge FM for the team title ... Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) ran a smart race (as instructed by the coaches) and followed the leaders to the 2-mile mark before making the winning surge to win handily.

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Class AA race is more difficult to predict this year due to limited race results from invitational races and league meets ... The large schools separated themselves from the OHSL to form their own league, and the new league decided to have no league championship meet in their initial season.  Sometimes dual meet results are useful, but sometimes they are not the best predictor of championship races.

To be honest, the limited results for some teams severely limits the utility of a computer simulation unless I make some "seat-of-the-pants" guesses ... So I guessed ... If my guesses are close (which is certainly questionable), three teams are potential winners of the Class AA race ... Liverpool enters the race as the favorite, and Liverpool is clearly the team to beat ... Baldwinsville has run very well this season, and is not far behind ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the mystery team; FM is reportedly brewing Harry Potter polyjuice potion and several of their girls will be running in disguise in the boy's race (just kidding).

It appears the #4 and #5 runners for each team could be the real deciding factor in determining the winner, and I'm not certain how that will play out at this point in the season with the limited results and time gaps between meaningful races.

Individual Race ... Bryan Picciotto (Liverpool) and Ethan Hickey (Liverpool) are the top rated Class AA runners entering the race ... Cory Greczyn (Baldwinsville) has run very well ... Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) was the fastest Section 3 runner at the Manhattan Invite, and could surprise with a similar effort ... and somehow I think Paul Merriman (FM) and Alex Hatz (FM) are primed for big efforts.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Whitesboro             63           ESM                    58 
  2   Watertown              64           Whitesboro             63 
  3   Jamesville Dewitt      68           Mexico                 71 
  4   ESM                    75           Jamesville-Dewitt      93 
  5   Mexico                103           Watertown              99 
  6   Fulton                138           Fulton                131 
  7   Nottingham            205           Nottingham            194 
  8   Carthage              223           Carthage              231 

Post-Race Comments ... ESM got their improved performances and won with a great team effort ... Whitesboro ran generally to form ... Mexico put in a good team performance to finish 3rd ... ESM ran one-two individually with Jeff Sweeney and Nick Sadlocha ... Starting a team score with one-two really helps, especially when the #5 runner finishes close to everybody elses #5 runner ... Andrew Troast was ESM's #5 runner (his best speed rating was 122 entering sectionals and he ran 140 at sectionals ... that's the type of performance that helps win team titles)!

Pre-Race Analysis ... Whitesboro is the defending Class "A" champion and has run very well in this race in recent seasons ... At the Adirondack Invitational last Saturday, Waterown beat Whitesboro (score of 91 to 107), but Whitesboro was missing Jon Szczesniak (who won the Class "A" race in the past two years); I assume he will be running on Friday ... The racing conditions and team make-ups at sectionals will be different than at Adirondack, but Watertown is still a co-favorite entering sectionals ... Watertown has had a real good season including a win at the Frontier League Championship race ... Jamesville-Dewitt is lurking close behind the top two teams and is definitely capable of winning this race ... With an improved performance here-and-there, East Syracuse-Minoa could spring an upset.

Overall, this is a really tight race in the computer simulations and warrants a "To Close to Call" prediction ... Whitesboro has won the Class "A" race convincingly the past two years with some of the same runners returning this year ... They exceeded their predictions in previous years, and if they do that again, I expect them to win ... But the race is close.

Individual Race ... Jeff Sweeney (ESM) enters the race as the top-rated Class "A" runner ... Evan Oustrich (Mexico) was very close behind Sweeney at both the OHSL Championship meet and Freedom League meet.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill               56           Westhill               45 
  2   Grimes/Ludden          64           Grimes/Ludden          70 
  3   New Hartford           78           New Hartford           89 
  4   South Jefferson        84           South Jefferson        93 
  5   Marcellus              98           Marcellus             102 
  6   VVS                   164           VVS                   169 
  7   Chittenango           205           Homer                 178 
  8   Homer                 212           Chittenango           182 
  9   Oneida                257           Oneida                223 
  10  Cortland              279           Solvay                278 
  11  Solvay                286           Cortland              282 
  12  Phoenix               288           Camden                380 
  13  Camden                420

Post-Race Comments ... The race ran pretty much to form, although the gap between Westhill and Grimes/Ludden was a bit more than expected ... The individual race results were also to form at the top with Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) winning, Andrew Corcoran (Westhill) 2nd and Sean Curry (Grimes-Ludden) 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill is the favorite over the newly combined Bishop Grimes-Bishop Ludden team ... Westhill beat Grimes-Ludden by a score of 108 to 132 at OHSL ... Westhill's advantage is team depth, especially at the #5 and #6 positions.

Individual Race ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) is the top-rated runner in Section 3 and the favorite to win the individual title; however, Stogsdill did not compete in the OHSL Championship race because he stepped in a mud-puddle (with a hidden-hole) the day before and twisted his knee ... hopefully, the injury will not prevent him from running well at sectionals ... Andrew Corcoran (Westhill) and Sean Curry (Grimes-Ludden) are also top-rated runners.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  60           Tully                  45 
  2   Holland Patent         99           Jordan-Elbridge        83 
  3   Jordan-Elbridge       102           Holland Patent         96 
  4   Canastota             115           Canastota             116 
  5   Sauquoit Valley       155           Sauquoit Valley       160 
  6   CBA                   170           CBA                   176 
  7   Clinton               196           Clinton               206 
  8   South Lewis           217           South Lewis           230 
  9   Skaneateles           223           Pulaski               258 
  10  Pulaski               236           Skaneateles           284 
  11  Cooperstown           272           Cooperstown           297 
  12  APW                   343           Ilion                 357 
  13  Ilion                 367           APW                   373 
  14  Cazenovia             382           Cazenovia             379 
  15  Little Falls          425           Adirondack            442 
  16  Mount Markham         431           Little Falls          464 
  17  Adirondack            473           Herkimer              471 
  18  Hannibal              498           Sherburne-Earl        518 
  19  Herkimer              565           Hannibal              520 
  20  Sherburne-Earl        567

Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the predictions were good with Tully running slightly better than expected ... Jordan-Elbridge ran well to finish second ... Chris Burke (Tully) improves with every race.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the solid favorite to repeat as the Class "C" champion ... Tully won at OHSL, and is the #2 ranked Class "C" team in NY State ... Holland Patent gets a close nod for 2nd over a good Jordan-Elbridge team.

Individual Race ... This looks like a very close match-up among several runners ... Kevin Bronson (South Lewis) has been improving all season and running very well in recent races ... Chris Burke (Tully) is making his typical late season surge after a "minimal" summer season of running (beginning your training at Aim High Running Camp in August seems to work) ... Robbie Argentine (Canastota) could definitely win this race ... Jack Kelley (CBA) is also a contender.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           30           Beaver River           39
  2   Weedsport              48           Weedsport              71
  3   Fabius-Pompey          89           Fabius-Pompey          79
  4   LaFayette             119           Oriskany              115
  5   Oriskany              123           LaFayette             134
  6   Westmoreland          185           Westmoreland          197
  7   Cato Meridian         213           Cato-Meridian         232
  8   West Canada Valley    279           West Canada Valley    248
  9   New York Mills        285           Onondaga              250
  10  Old Forge             286           Utica Notre Dame      283
  11  Onondaga              292           New York Mills        293
  12  Utica Notre Dame      327           Hamilton              299
  13  Hamilton              363           Old Forge             314
  14  Sandy Creek           404           Sandy Creek           349
  15  Port Byron            405           DeRuyter              421
  16  MPH                   426
  17  DeRuyter              434

Post-Race Comments ... The predictions were decent with Beaver River winning handily ... Mitch Miller (Morrisville-Eaton) ran very well to win with Chris Martin (Onondaga) second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River enters the Class "D" race as the favorite ... Beaver River finished a close 2nd (to Watertown) at the Frontier Championships and then beat Canastota and Sauquiot Valley at the Adirondack Invite ... Weedsport is not far behind and could surprise with a big effort.

Individual Race ... Chris Martin (Onondaga) is running well and is the top-rated Class "D" runner in Section 3 ... Mitch Miller (Morrisville-Eaton) should make this a close contest.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     16           FM                     15
  2   West Genesee           99           West Genesee           98
  3   Baldwinsville          99           CNS                   114
  4   Liverpool             101           Liverpool             115
  5   CNS                   113           Baldwinsville         122
  6   Rome                  134           Rome                  134
  7   Proctor               194           Central Square        179
  8   Central Square        229           Proctor               208
  9   Auburn                261           Auburn                245
  10  Oswego                261           Oswego                268
  11  Henninger             318
  
								

Post-Race Comments ... FM was awesome (nine runners in the top 12 including the top five places) ... My predicted score of 16 almost came true when Molly Malone (FM) and Heather Vroman (Proctor) had a good stretch battle over the final 100 meters with Malone prevailing ... Hannah Luber (FM) looked phenomenal in winning ... There is good reason FM is the top-ranked team in the nation.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the BIG favorite (I know that might shock some people) ... My biggest dilemma was to project their team score as 15, 16 or 17 ... FM is preparing for upcoming races, so I'm guessing they will be training through sectionals ... The results will be interesting to myself and observers around the State and nation ... FM is incredibly deep and talented, but currently there are some questions surrounding the top-ranked team in the US (questions involving injuries and current status of various runners which can only be answered through racing) ... Section 3 allows ten runners for each team to compete at sectionals, so the incredible team depth of FM should be demonstrated (upcoming championship races allow the normal seven runners per team).

I found very little to effectively separate West Genesee, Baldwinsville and Liverpool in this particular race ... A stellar performance by any one of the teams could make them a candidate for Federation consideration.

Individual Race ... Somebody from FM will win ... The question is who ... and I don't really know.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Whitesboro             38           Whitesboro             37
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      51           Jamesville-Dewitt      51
  3   Mexico                 72           Mexico                 65
  4   ESM                    99           ESM                    87
  5   Fowler                137           Watertown             122
  6   Watertown             143           Nottingham            172
  7   Fulton                165
  8   Nottingham            229
  
				

Post-Race Comments ... The predictions were quite good ... Kelsey Peek (Whitesboro) and Eileen Cody (JD) ran one-two.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Whitesboro is the favorite ... Whitesboro finished a close 2nd to Liverpool at the Adirondack Invite and won the TVL League Championship meet.

Individual Race ... Eileen Cody (JD) and Kelsey Peek (Whitesboro) are the top-rated Class "A" runners.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill               57           Westhill               68
  2   VVS                    79           VVS                    90
  3   Homer                 100 **        Homer                 123
  4   South Jefferson       130           South Jefferson       130
  5   Marcellus             140           Marcellus             140
  6   Phoenix               167           Chittenango           164
  7   Chittenango           171           Phoenix               191
  8   Cortland              182           New Hartford          198
  9   Grimes/Ludden         205           Cortland              201
  10  New Hartford          209           Grimes/Ludden         226
  11  Solvay                279           Oneida                254
  12  Oneida                293           Solvay                282
  13  Camden                385           Camden                362
				

Post-Race Comments ... Race ran close to expectations.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Perennial contender Westhill looks like a winner again (I said the same thing last year) ... Westhill finished 2nd at OHSL with a good effort ... Vernon-Verona-Sherrill (VVS) finished a close 2nd to Whitesboro at the TVL Championships and ran decently at the Adirondack Invite ... I'm not certain Homer will send a complete team to sectionals (they had only four runners at OHSL).

Individual Race ... Carrie Carlton (Marcellus) has improved nicely throughout the season and won impressively at OHSL (following a very good performance at the Marathon Invite) ... Michelle Brandt (Chittenango) was a good 3rd at OHSL (and she ran well at the Manhattan Invite).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Canastota              50           Tully                  47
  2   Tully                  50           Canastota              53
  3   Skaneateles            99           Skaneateles            93
  4   Sauquoit Valley       119           Cazenovia             119
  5   Cazenovia             143           Pulaski               144
  6   Pulaski               143           Sauquoit Valley       144
  7   CBA                   143           Holland Patent        182
  8   Holland Patent        185           Jordan-Elbridge       244
  9   Jordan-Elbridge       234           Ilion                 245
  10  Clinton               313           Clinton               293
  11  Ilion                 314           Adirondack            304
  12  Adirondack            334           Little Falls          332
  13  Little Falls          347           Cooperstown           336
  14  Cooperstown           378
  15  Sherburne-Earl        424

							

Post-Race Comments ... The race for the top two spots was very close as expected, but similar to many other races I've seen, "how" the scores resulted is somewhat different than predicted ... Championship races are interesting because at times, some runners step-up with career-best efforts when other team runners are unable to perform normally due to injury or sickness ... Tully scored as well as they did because freshman Caroline Edinger ran her best-race-ever when two other normal top-five scorers struggled with injury and sickness.

Cazenovia put in real good performance to finish 4th ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) and Kelseigh Groth (Tully) ran one-two as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... I spent a little extra time playing with the computer simulations for this race for obvious reasons ... One factor was apparent before running the simulations - most of the top teams have a significant degree of "inconsistency" with some individual performances ... And the computer simulations just loved that and various projected results were all over the place ... The results above are just an average (and close to projected scores using just the overall speed ratings for each runner) ... I also factored in the possibility that one of Tully's top five runners (Becky Bloom) could have either a good or bad race (Becky sprained her ankle at the ESM Invite and did not run at either OHSLs or the Marathon Invite).

Tully beat Canastota by small margins at both the ESM and earlier Chittenango Invites ... Both Tully and Canastota raced at Disney but in different races (Canastota beat Tully in the merged results) ... Those results no longer count, but they indicate that both teams are very close in overall ability ... For this race, the #3 through #5 runners are very important ... and the placement of runners from other teams amongst the Canastota and Tully runners could be the key to winning or losing.

Skaneateles could be much better than the score above indicates ... they beat Tully at Auburn, but have not been performing as well in recent races (Tully won by significant margins at both ESM and OHSL).

Individual Race ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) is the favorite (she has been running very well all season) ... Kelseigh Groth (Tully) is coming on well and finished a very good 2nd at OHSL ... Depending on which team wins (Tully or Canastota), it could be an interesting scramble to see which five girls qualify for States as individuals.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           33           Beaver River           31
  2   Remsen                 67           Remsen                 86
  3   Fabius-Pompey         112           Weedsport              92
  4   Weedsport             112           Fabius-Pompey          95
  5   Utica Notre Dame      133           Utica Notre Dame       97
  6   LaFayette             145           LaFayette             120
  7   Cato Meridian         204           Cato-Meridian         207
  8   Old Forge             232           Port Byron            237
  9   Port Byron            259           Waterville            252
  10  Oriskany              298           New York Mills        282
  11  West Canada Valley    308           Oriskany              286
  12  Waterville            314
  13  New York Mills        323
  14  Westmoreland          336

				

Post-Race Comments ... The race ran reasonably close to expectations with Beaver River and Remsen running 1st and 2nd ... Christine Mulvihill (Remsen) won easily as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the solid favorite to re-claim the Class "D" title ... LaFayette won last year when Kelseigh Groth (now at Tully) was running for them, and LaFayette just missed winning States.

Individual Race ... Christine Mulvihill (Remsen) is the solid favorite to win.