Predictions - NTN NE & NY Qualifier 2007

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 24, 2007

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 21, 2007 ... Actual Scores Added Nov 25, 2007

[ Boys Northeast ] ... [ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls Northeast ] ... [ Girls NY ]

Boys Northeast NTN Qualifier - To Close to Call (Brookline & Danbury)

 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score    State         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Brookline                86       MA          BROOKLINE TC               86
 2   Danbury                  87       CT          DANBURY RC                 87
 3   Don Bosco               109       NJ          Don BOSCO XC CLUB          96
 4   Du Hast (North Penn)    122       PA          DU HAST RC (North Penn)   106
 5   Germantown Friends      142       PA          GERMANTOWN FRIENDS RC     165
 6   East Greenwich (Hill'N) 204       RI          Whitman-HANSON RC         177
 7   Christian Brothers      208       NJ          East Greenwich (HILL 'N)  196
 8   Haddonfield Memorial    224       NJ          HADDONFIELD MEMORIAL TC   225
 9   Whitman-Hanson (Hanson) 251       MA          CHEROKEE RC               256
 10  Morris Hills            291       NJ          MORRIS HILLS RC           273
 11  Cherokee                308       NJ          JACKSON MEMORIAL TC       289
 12  Jackson Memorial        313       NJ          NASHUA SOUTH XC CLUB      310
 13  Nashua South            323       NH          BISHOP HENDRICKEN TC      351
 14  Bishop Hendricken       330       RI          Christian BROTHERS XC     357
 15  Old Bridge              336       NJ          HUNTERDON CENTRAL RC      363
 16  Mt. Mansfield Union     359       VT          CUMBERLAND VALLEY RC      382
 17  Merrimack               424       NH          COLTS NECK TC             427
 18  Cumberland Valley       437       PA          MT. MANSFIELD UNION RC    455
 19  Hunterdon Central       505       NJ          HAFEY / HOBAN             482
 20  Downingtown West        513       PA          W Morris MENDHAM CC       597
 21  W Morris Mendam         520       NJ
 22  Colts Neck              532       NJ

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Boys NE qualifier looks like a very good race with a full field of 22 teams ... Brookline MA and Danbury CT appear to be even-up ... Don Bosco NJ, North Penn PA, and Germantown Friends PA are within striking distance.

I am not sure if the race is using Chip-Timing or a standard finish-line chute, BUT the finish-line people had best be ready for a big cavalry charge at the end ... My numbers are showing 85 runners within a critical 45 second-span (speed rating 160 to 175) ... and the span between ratings 167 and 175 (43 runners) is where this race will be gained or lost in terms of team score.... the #3, #4 and #5 runners are very important in this race.

If Don Bosco NJ can reproduce their effort at the NJ Meet of Champions, they have a good chance of qualifying or winning ... A top effort by all North Penn PA runners puts them in a decent qualifying position ... Germantown Friends needs season-best performances by their #4 and #5 runners.

Boys New York NTN Qualifier - Warwick & Shen favored to qualify

 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score    Section       School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Warwick (Purple Wave)     53     09-AA        Shenendehowa (Clifton)     37
 2   Shenendehowa (Clifton)    74     02-AA        Warwick (Purple Wave)      57
 3   Queensbury                98     02-A         Queensbury                 98
 4   Shaker (Latham)          115     02-AA        Smithtown (Blue Collar)    98
 5   Smithtown (Blue Collar)  130**   11-AA        Shaker (Latham)           125
 6   Ithaca (Finger Lakes)    146     04-AA        Ithaca (Finger Lakes)     131
 7   Arlington(Lagrangeville) 149     01-AA        Arlington (Lagrangeville) 140
 8   Kellenberg               176     CHS          Wantagh                   204
 9   Wantagh                  219     08-A
 10  Monsignor Farrell        272     CHS
 
   ** if G. Signoretti runs; if not, they
       finish 7th or 8th

Pre-Race Analysis ... No surprise that Warwick Valley (Purple Wave) & Shenendehowa (Clifton Park) are favored ... Queensbury and Shaker have the best shot at an upset ... Shaker will need an effort similar to their sectional race against Shen to get close ... Queensbury is a good team; top performances by all five scorers put them within reach, especially if Warwick or Shen falter at the #5 position.

Giovanni Signoretti (Smithtown) is entered at Footlocker NE ... I included him above, but if he does not race at Bowdoin, it adds 45 to 50 points to Smithtown's (Blue Collar) score.

Girls Northeast NTN Qualifier - Hanover NH & Voorhess NJ favored

 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score    State         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Hanover RC               66       NH          Wicked (Linc-Sudbury)      69
 2   Voorhees (Hunter Hawks)  66       NJ          Voorhees (Hunter hawks)    73
 3   Wicked (Linc-Sudbury)   109       MA          Hanover RC                 83
 4   Suamme (Emmaus)         110       PA          Nancy Lang Andover        106
 5   Nancy Lang Andover      113       MA          Suamme (Emmaus)           122
 6   Glastonbury             130       CT          Ridge Runners             152
 7   Ridge Runners           156       NJ          Glastonbury               161
 8   Immac Heart(Blue Eagle) 162       NJ          Immac Heart(Blue Eagle)   177
 9   Colts Neck              235       NJ          Colts Neck                253
 10  Howell                  247       NJ          Howell                    265
 11  Club E.O. Smith         316       CT          Hafey/Hoban (Crestwood)   305
 12  Hunterdon Central       322       NJ          Hunterdon Central         306
 13  Hafey/Hoban (Crestwood) 355       PA          Club E.O. Smith           359

Pre-Race Analysis ... Hanover NH and Voorhees NJ (Hunterdon Hawks) seem very evenly matched in this particular race ... If Voorhees can duplicate their performance at the NJ Meet of Champions, then they will have an advantage ... Hanover and Voorhees NJ have a significant margin on the other teams.

Lincoln-Sudbury MA (Wicked TC) and Emmaus PA (Suamme) aren't that far behind and could grab a qualifying spot if one of the top two teams falter.

The mystery team is Nancy Lang RC (aka Phillips Academy in Andover MA ... a private prep school) ... Although I found two races with complete results, speed rating them with no background information is a guessing game ... So I made a guess, and the numbers suggest they are close to Lincoln-Sudbury and Emmaus (but that's just a guess ... maybe they are better ... In one race at a full 5K distance, their top runner was less than 3 minutes behind Sintayehu Taye, one of the top boy runners in the northeast).

Colts Neck NJ finished 4th at NTN last year ... their score above does not include Brianna Jackucewicz because she did not run at NJ MOC (although she did run at NJ Groups) ... if she does run, Colts Neck projected score would be about 60 points less.

Girls New York NTN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite

The predicted score shown below may be completely bogus because it uses the following assumptions which may be wrong:
(1) ALL team members race at the NTN Qualifier (they do not skip this race in favor of Footlocker NE)
(2) Burnt Hills does not race Meaghan Gregory or Molly Pezzulo (who are injured or sick).

 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score    Section       School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Stotan (Fay-Manlius)     37      03-AA        Stotan (Fay-Manlius)      40
 2   Kinetic (Saratoga)       75      02-AA        Burnt Hills               72
 3   Greenwich Witches        83      02-C         Kinetic (Saratoga)        83
 4   Burnt Hills              93      02-A         Warwick valley            98
 5   East Aurora             106      06-B         East Aurora               99
 6   Warwick Valley          126      09-AA        Greenwich Witches        106
 7   Arlington (Lagrange)    172      01-AA        Arlington (Lagrange)     184
 8   Syosset                 226      08-AA

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius will have their complete team at the NTN qualifier ... But will the injured Kathryn Buchan race?? ... Fayetteville-Manlius has demonstrated that they are indeed the #1 team in the nation ... FM is the solid favorite in this race.

Individual runners from Saratoga, Burnt Hills, Warwick Valley and Greenwich are also entered in the Footlocker NE race at Van Cortlandt Park ... Which race they opt to run is not available, and it obviously has a big impact on which teams finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th ... I have decided to sit-back and watch and see if something "interesting" happens.