Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are usually based on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season (just like a track & field leaderboard) ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

For the most part, the teams listing below are just an extension of the 2006 XC season into 2007 ... I removed the graduating seniors and ran a variety of computer simulations with  remaining varsity-JV runners from 2006 ... I made a few selective modifications such as adjusting a few ratings based on track results or prior XC results (but this was kept to a minimum).

Initially, the list included 50+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make the simulations more manageable ... I wanted to include at least two teams for each class (except Class D).

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point at best ...

 

 Pre-Season New York Team Contenders Girls - 2007


                                                      Early-Book ODDS
                                                        to finish
       Team                 Score     Section-Class   Top Two at Feds
       ------------------   -----     -------------   ---------------
  1    FM                    175        (03-AA)             7-5
  2    Burnt Hills           180        (02-A )             8-5
  3    Saratoga              200        (02-AA)             5-2
  4    East Aurora           205        (06-B )             3-1
  5    Greenwich             210        (02-C )             4-1
  6    Warwick Valley        250        (09-AA)             7-1
  7t   Hilton                275        (05-AA)             8-1
  7t   Bronxville            275        (01-C )             8-1
  9    Holy Names            305        (02-A )            10-1
  10   Shenendehowa          320        (02-AA)            12-1
  11   Colonie               360        (02-AA)            15-1
  12   West Seneca West      395        (06-AA)            20-1
  13   Ward Melville         410        (11-AA)            25-1
  14   Johnson City          455        (04-B )            30-1
  15   Ursuline              460        (01-A )            40-1
  16   Arlington             465        (01-AA)            40-1
  17   Honeoye Falls-Lima    480        (05-B )            45-1
  18t  Bethlehem             495        (02-AA)            50-1
  18t  Guilderland           495        (02-AA)            50-1
  20   West Genesee          510        (03-AA)            50-1
  21   Monroe-Woodbury       515        (09-AA)            50-1
  22   Pittsford Mendon      520        (05-A )            50-1
  23   Bay Shore             535        (11-AA)            50-1
  24t  Cicero-North Syr      540        (03-AA)            50-1
  24t  North Rockland        540        (01-AA)            50-1
  26t  Carmel                550        (01-AA)            50-1
  26t  Niskayuna             550        (02-AA)            50-1
  28   Maine-Endwell         555        (04-B )            50-1
  29   Horace Greeley        570        (01-A )            50-1
  30t  Fairport              575        (05-AA)            50-1
  30t  Longwood              575        (11-AA)            50-1
  32   Shaker                580        (02-AA)            50-1

Where did the scores come from? ... The scores are a composite of computer race simulations (100,000+ simulated races) using 2006 seasonal speed ratings with corresponding statistical margins of error ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results.

Early Book Odds ... The Early Book Odds to finish Top Two Federation Championships is a combination of data extracted from the computer simulations plus some subjective judgment on my part as follows: ... I pretended I was making the "morning-line" for a horse race (and/or the "Early Book" line for a race such as the Kentucky Derby) ... a typical "morning line" is a combination of what people are likely to bet (regardless of ability) plus what might actually happen in a race (based on ability) ... "morning lines" are just educated guesses and a starting point ... Early Book Odds put an upper limit on odds, so I used an upper limit of 50-1 because there is always a chance that any team with high odds could get some "new blood" and challenge for a top spot ... all of the teams above have good runners and the addition of some "new" good runners would make a difference.

In General ... the New York State girls' teams are incredibly deep and talented ... The top teams from Federations will likely be contenders to win the NTN National Championship (again).

Molly Malone

Courtney Chapman

FM did lose 3 of their top seven runners to graduation (#3, #5, #7 from Feds & #3, #4, #7 from NTN); however, FM was a deep and talented team in 2006, and the #3 through #6 runners were fairly inter-changeable ... and FM had other good runners in reserve.  Molly Malone (a sophomore this coming season) made some really nice speed improvements throughout track and actually qualified for the State Meet in the 800m (2:17), but chose to run just the 4x800 relay instead ... she ran a good time at the Utica Boilermaker 15K in July (1:02:04) and looked like a stronger runner during track ... considering she's already posted good XC ratings (118-122), FM could have another top runner in the mix ... Courtney Chapman (only a freshman this coming year) was the #5 finisher for FM at NTN (a 119 rating) ... Courtney also won a JV division at Manhattan (with a 125 rating), and this gives FM a very strong top four nucleus on which to build.

FM has other good runners returning who could definitely fill the #5 position.  And they have other possible "new blood" runners waiting in the wings ... Observers have told me several "new" runners (previously involved in other fall sports) are practicing with FM this summer at Green Lakes State Park (their usual training location) ... Some have shown good ability at track and could obviously be a nice addition to the team ... So overall, FM may be deeper and stronger in 2007 (but that remains to be seen).

Coach Bill Aris has taken teams to all three NTNs (once with the girls, twice with the boys) ... a 1st, a 2nd & a 3rd ... Not too bad.

FM fits the mold of "Been There, Done That" with respect to Feds and NTN ... They have the runners and a winning experience ... That's all you can ask for entering the season, and that's why FM is the favorite until proven differently.

Molly Pezzulo

The Burnt Hills girls ran some huge PRs during the track seasons which is certainly indicative of improvement ... Looking at 3000m for example, Meaghan Gregory (10:28 to 9:47), Sam Roecker (10:37 to 9:59), Molly Pezzulo (10:57 to 10:11), Rachel Cyrus (10:23), Martha Brown (11:19 to 10:52) and Carolyn Herkenham (11:07) ... Many other PRs were set at other distances by these runners and other runners ... If track times alone were used to predict pre-season rankings, the Burnt Hills would be ranked #1 - But track times don't always correspond to XC performance.

The top three runners from Burnt Hills match-up very well with the top three runners from FM ... entering the season, I would give this advantage to Burnt Hills ... Meaghan Gregory is a super runner, but did not have her best XC race at Feds in 2006; she looks improved and could well have a better finish at Feds in 2007 ... Sam Roecker is just plain good (and improved) ... and Molly Pezzulo is a terrific young runner (she ran multiple fast 3000m races and a 5:04 mile relay split at NON Nationals).

But to beat FM, Burnt Hills (and any other team) must match-up with FM at #4 and #5 positions ... Based on track performances, Burnt Hills might be able to do it ... Last year, no team was able to match-up with FM at those positions and FM won Feds and NTN ... This year, Burnt Hills could be the team.

Brianne Bellon

Saratoga loses three of their Federation runners to graduation ... In addition to the top two, they return Brianne Bellon and Katelyn Lowe ... unfortunately, neither runner had her best race at Feds ... during much of the 2006 season, Brianne Bellon posted XC ratings between 117 and 126 ... in track, Brianne lowered her 800m PR to an excellent 2:11.67 ... she ran a 5:04 open mile and a 11:13 two mile and recently ran  a very good 17:55 at the Silks & Satins 5K .... Katelyn Lowe typically posted XC ratings between 112 and 117 ... at NON Nationals, Katelyn lowered her 2000m Steeplechase PR to 7:18, and at Suburban Council Championships, she lowered her 3000m PR to 10:30.

So Saratoga is returning a strong nucleus of four runners ... and Saratoga is a deep team - they are clearly able to fill in runners at the #4 and #5 positions ... The question is "How good will it be compared to FM, Burnt Hills and other contenders?"

Kirsten Weberg

Erin Crawford

One problem in comparing East Aurora to the other teams (via track performances) is that East Aurora does not compete in indoor track and some outdoor track results have been difficult to find ... My track database does include some East Aurora track results, especially for the top runners, but I know it's missing some relevant results.

Kirsten Weberg and Erin Crawford finished  a good 32nd and 37th in the team scoring at Feds, respectively ... Kirsten Weberg posted some good times for 800m (2:22) and the steeplechase (7:26) ... incoming freshman Paige Pelton ran a nice 3000m (10:59) and incoming freshman Megan Hulton ran a nice 1500m (5:05) ... Alice Coughlin took 3rd at the Empire State Games 10000m (41:42).

East Aurora is coached by Walt McLaughlin ... Section 3 coaches are very familiar with Walt because he formerly coached at Beaver River and had some outstanding (State & Fed winning) teams!

I don't know the truth, but I have heard East Aurora may be getting some other "new" runners ... The top-ranked teams should keep a close eye on East Aurora.

Brittney Lane

Betsy Edinger

Cady Kuzmich

Caitlin Lane and Emily Fung are both profiled on the Top NY Girls web-page ... Cady Kuzmich (a freshman this coming season) finished 25th in the team scoring at Feds in 2006; she was the #3 finisher for Greenwich at Feds ... Cady finished ahead of the #3 finishers for FM, Burnt Hills and East Aurora (and the #3 finisher for Saratoga graduated), so Greenwich has the top returning #3 runner from Feds entering the season (and I know that will surprise some people).

Brittney Lane finished 41st in the team scoring at Feds with a decent rating of 112 (but she had been running ratings in the 117-125 range in prior races) ... Brittney ran indoor track through January, but was then side-lined for the remainder of the year with injuries and hasn't raced since (that I know of).

Betsy Edinger (another freshman this coming year) ran some good performances, including a 122 rating at Manhattan ... But that was Betsy's last race of the year (either XC or track), so there's a big question mark concerning the upcoming season ... I have been told she is training for XC this summer and doing well ... She sat out the remainder of last year with some foot injuries ... I've also been told she's gotten noticeably taller.

Emily Fung missed a sizeable amount of time from track (from mid February through May), but she did qualify for Empire State Games and won the 5000 meter gold medal on July 28 (in 18:59.59 which was slower than her winning time of 18:25 last year) ... According to the Glens Falls Post-Star, Emily has been plagued by injuries this past season - she was quoted "I've just been doing base training, long miles and a couple of hill workouts every other week. I think I'm getting in pretty good shape for cross country."

So there question marks concerning at least three of the top five Greenwich runners.

At Feds, Greenwich was beaten by all of the teams I have ranked above them ... They ran head-to-head with Hilton at Baldwinsville and lost ... At Manhattan (head-to-head), they were beaten by FM, Hilton and Saratoga ... Based on all the question marks and head-to-head results from last year, I can not rank Greenwich any higher than 5th entering the season ... But my computer says they can win and I believe it.

Hilton ... the fairly high ranking of Hilton will surprise some observers ... they lose their two top runners that finished 3rd and 13th at NTN (Allison Sawyer & Caroline Schultz) ... However, Hilton still has two veterans from the 2005 NTN National Championship team and 2006 NTN runner-up team ... Shelby Herman finished 19th at NTN in 2005 and popped some very good ratings through the first part of 2006 (ratings of 122 to 138 at Manhattan); then an injury hampered her XC performances ... she was re-injured after indoor track and missed the outdoor track season (but is reportedly running well right now) ... Ashley Jones was the top #5 runner at NTN 2005, but some physical problems hampered Ashley throughout 2006 ... despite that, Ashley has run decently and could regain her previous form helping Hilton a great deal ... Sarah Ritchie ran very well in her first year of XC (ratings consistently near 120, including NTN) and she showed really nice improvement during track; this could be a very good season for Sarah ... Coach Mike Szczepanik and Hilton have been 1st & 2nd at NTN the past two years, and that counts for something in my evaluation.

Bronxville ... Coach Jim Mitchell has done an outstanding job at Bronxville over many years ... Last year, Bronxville entered the season as one of the top teams in the State, but an injury to top runner Virginia Connor diminished team chances a great deal (she missed most of the XC season and both track seasons) ... Bronxville has a core of some very good runners including Tori Flannery (2nd in the Footlocker NE sophomore race, a 10:25 3000m PR), Henrietta Miers (a 10:39 3000m PR and XC ratings of 115-121), Emma Clarke (XC ratings of 117-127 and many good track times at 1500m and 3000m), Caitlin Hudson (a 4:46 1500m PR), Olivia Bruton and others ... But they probably need a top runner to compete with the other top runners in the State.