Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are usually based on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season
 (3) helping me to remember computer simulations and testing my computer code on a new Windows Vista computer (that I occasionally wish came with Windows XP instead).

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season (just like a track & field leaderboard) ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2006 XC season into 2007 ... I removed the graduating seniors and ran a variety of computer simulations with  remaining varsity-JV runners from 2006 ... I made a few selective modifications such as adding a representative 5th runner for a few teams (where I had sufficient data for only four runners) and modifying various ratings based on track results (but this was kept to a minimum).

Initially, the list included 50+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make the simulations more manageable ... 36 teams is still too many teams, but I wanted to include at least two teams for each class (except Class D).

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point at best ...

 

 Pre-Season New York Team Contenders Boys-2007

       Team                 Score     Section-Class
       ------------------   -----     -------------
  1    Warwick Valley        200        (09-AA)
  2    Smithtown             220        (11-AA)
  3    Shenendehowa          240        (02-AA)
  4    Queensbury            250        (02-A )
  5    Shaker                275        (02-AA)
  6    Chaminade             295        (CHS  )
  7    Kellenberg            315        (CHS  )
  8    FM                    380        (03-AA)
  9    Cornwall              385        (09-A )
  10   Guilderland           400        (02-AA)
  11   Fordham Prep          405        (CHS  )
  12   Liverpool             405        (03-AA)
  13   Ithaca                410        (04-AA)
  14   Arlington             430        (01-AA)
  15   Newburgh              440        (09-AA)
  16   Cicero-North Syr      450        (03-AA)
  17   Collegiate            480        (AIS  )
  18   Shoreham-Wading       485        (11-B )
  19   Fairport              515        (05-AA)
  20   Horace Greeley        520        (01-A )
  20   Scarsdale             520        (01-AA)  (added in update)
  21   Burnt Hills           525        (02-A )
  22   Tully                 530        (03-C )
  23   St. Anthony's         535        (CHS  )
  24   Somers                550        (01-A )
  25   Webster Thomas        560        (05-AA)
  26   Iona Prep             570        (CHS  )
  27   Averill Park          575        (02-A )
  28   Clarence              580        (06-AA)
  29   Monroe-Woodbury       585        (09-AA)
  30   Bishop Ford           590        (CHS  )
  31   Suffern               600        (01-AA)
  32   Pittsford Sutherland  600        (05-A )
  33   Washingtonville       650        (09-AA)
  34   Pearl River           660        (01-B )
  35   Newark Valley         665        (04-C )
  36   Niskayuna             670        (02-AA)

Where did the scores come from? ... The scores are a composite of computer race simulations (100,000+ simulated races) using 2006 seasonal speed ratings with corresponding statistical margins of error ... a few speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I could have done more with track results but decided it wasn't worth the time for what I was trying to accomplish ... A good pre-season list that includes more weight from track results can be found on a DyeStat Forum Board (in various forums such as the High School Elite Forum & NTN Northeast Forum; the list is authored by "watchout").

In General ... the New York State boys took a big hit from graduation in 2006 (38 of the top 50 finishers at Federations were seniors) ... For each of the top three teams at Federations (Shenedehowa, Collegiate and FM), their top 3 finishers at Feds graduated ... Nobody in the top 10 teams from Feds is returning their top 5 runners (or even 4 of them) ... With No prohibitive favorite entering the season, predicting the top two finishers at NY Federations 2007 appears open to speculation ... A significant improvement in only one or two runners from a number of teams could easily elevate them to that level.

Warwick Valley ... Based on all available data, Warwick Valley is the favorite entering the season ... they traditionally have a very deep and talented team, and that's the perfect combination for XC 2007 with the number of graduating seniors from last season ... Most of the computer simulations gave them a wider margin of victor than posted above, but when I skewed the simulations to give more importance to races at Bowdoin Park (especially Feds), the final scores got much closer ... My general impression of Warwick is that of a good pack team (and again, that appears to be an advantage in NY in 2007) ... My one concern with respect to Federations is this:  as noted in other articles, teams with two top runners in big meets have an advantage ... and entering the season, that advantage may belong to other teams.

Smithtown ... Smithtown is a combined team (Smithtown West + Smithtown East ... both are small Class "AA" schools) ... Smithtown is returning 5 of their 2006 Fed runners including Giovanni Signoretti (who I rated highly in the top returning runners from last year) ... With good team depth and a 4th at Feds last year, Smithtown is a serious challenger to win Feds in 2007.

Shenendehowa ... Losing 5 of their Fed runners from 2006 (including Steve Murdock, Zack Predmore and Adam Quinn), it might seem unlikely that Shenendehowa would have a chance in 2007 ... However, the defending Fed champs return two very good runners in Zac Suriano and Mike Danaher (who could well meet my criteria for a "top two" runners) ... from what I have heard, Shen is getting another good transfer from CBA-Albany (Brian Trainor) ... With their traditional excellent depth, Shenendehowa has a decent chance at retaining the Federation crown.

Queensbury ... Queensbury is the top Class "A" team entering season ... Queensbury and Shenendehowa were very close in the computer simulations (Shen gets the slight advantage due to their new transfer) ... Queensbury has a top runner in Matt Flint and a very good supporting cast, and are clearly in the mix for a finish in the top two teams at Feds.

Shaker ... Shaker returns three of their top four runners from Feds ... Shaker finished 6th at Feds in 2006 (and they were not at full strength due to injuries) ... They did very well in the computer simulations and just might be a dark-horse in 2007.

Chaminade & Kellenberg ... Chaminade and Kellenberg appear to be the top CHSAA teams ... with some moderate improvement at the #4 and #5 positions, both teams become serious contenders ... Right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the top 7 teams above win Federations.

Fayetteville-Manlius ... I added Alex Hatz to the simulations .... Looking at Section 3 Class "AA", I see very little separation between FM and Liverpool at this point ... just one significantly improved runner by either team could make the difference at sectionals ... right now it looks like a toss-up with Cicero-North Syracuse not far behind.