NTN 2007 - GIRLS Projected Team Scores Actual Scores
======================================================= ==============================
1 Manlius XC Club NY 97 (New York ) Manlius XC Club 83
2 Newhall XC Club CA 133 (California) Newhall XC Club 171 - (Saugus)
3 Burnt Hills TC NY 240 (New York ) Kinetic RC 194
4 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 255 (New York ) Hanover RC 206
5 Des Moines RC IA 262 (Heartland ) Burnt Hills XC Club 209
6 Anaheim XC Club CA 267 (California) Caution XC Club 215 - (Mtn Brook)
7 Hunterdon XC Club NJ 268 (Northeast ) Fort Collins RC 241
8 Portland XC Club OR 280 (Northwest ) Wicked XC Club 250 - (Lincoln-Sudbury)
9 Fort Collins RC CO 290 (Southwest ) Davis XC Club 281
10 Westfield XC Club IN 310 (Midwest ) Rose City XC Club 295 - (St. Mary's)
11 Suwanee XC Club GA 313 (Southeast ) Warwick Rc-G 301
12 Hanover RC NH 314 (Northeast ) Portland XC Club 304 - (Jesuit)
13 Wilmington XC Club DE 322 (Southeast ) Hunterdon XC Club 304 - (Voorhees)
14 Rose City XC Club OR 328 (Northwest ) Des Moines RC 318 - (Dowling Catholic)
15 Wicked XC Club MA 329 (Northeast ) Westfield XC Club 322
16 Warwick Valley RC NY 332 (New York ) Yankton XC Club 324
17 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 334 (Southeast ) Anaheim XC Club 337 - (Esperanza)
18 Lake Central IN 346 (Midwest ) Southlake Carroll XC 344
19 Davis XC Club UT 347 (Southwest ) Suwanee XC Club 349 - (Collins Hill)
20 Southlake Carroll TX 350 (South ) Wilmington XC Club 377 - (Tatnall)
21 Keller XC Club TX 374 (South ) Lake Central XC Club 413
22 Yankton XC Club SD 381 (Heartland ) Keller XC Club 585
Pre-Race Comments ... As discussed in the Boy's Pre-Race Comments above, the team scores are the actual numbers generated from the overall speed ratings for each runner ... As noted below, I don't necessarily agree with the raw numbers.
Stotan (Fayetteville-Manlius) NY ... Coach Bill Aris
is making his fourth annual team pilgrimage to Portland Meadows (twice
with the boys and now twice with the girls ... includes a 1st, a 2nd,
and a 3rd place finish in the first three years
)
... FM is the defending National Girls Champion and #1
ranked team in the nation ... FM has both top runners and
incredible team depth including three runners projected in the top 15
finishers and the top #5 projected finisher (and the order of FM finish
could be different than shown in the projection) ... FM has
proven ability at Portland Meadows which is always a big plus.
FM had what might be considered an "off"
race at the NTN regional ... However, the conditions at Bowdoin park
were a bit different than normal in a few areas, and that, combined with
a slower than normal pace for many runners in the small field (excluding
Sam Roecker and Hannah Davidson) yielded some "interesting" final times
and speed ratings that makes a handicapper's life more difficult
.
Saugus CA ... Normally, FM would be the run-away favorite, but Saugus is NOT that far behind ... Saugus entered the 2006 NTN race as one of the favorites, but an untimely team flu bug sickened any hope of doing well; so I don't know if Saugus can run top performances at Portland Meadows (but the one year of experience should help) ... Saugus has top runners and their #5 projected finisher is only 3 to 4 seconds behind FM's #5 ... IF Saugus can run well as a team at Portland Meadows, this race could be closer than the score above indicates.
Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills leads the next group of six or seven teams that are reasonably close in the projection ... Burnt Hills got a nice boost at the NY regional when Meaghan Gregory returned to compete (she missed a good chunk of the season with "mono") ... Unfortunately, Burnt Hills lost one of their top runners (Molly Pezzulo) to injury earlier in the season and she will not race (from what I have been told) ... Burnt Hills has good team depth at the #4 through #7 positions (which is one on their strengths along with top runner Sam Roecker).
Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY ... Saratoga has a very good top duo in Hannah Davidson and Cassie Goutos (and Sydney King has come on very well during the season) ... But their actual finish position will likely be determined by their #4 and #5 runners (and that was my biggest concern in projecting Saratoga for this race (it's a question mark).
Dowling Catholic IA ... Obvious strength is the #1 projected finisher (Katie Flood) and another runner in the top 15 (Ashlie Decker) ... Top performances by the next three scorers could easily lift Dowling Catholic ahead of both Burnt Hills and Saratoga.
Esperanza CA, Voorhees NJ, Portland Harriers (Jesuit) OR, and Fort Collins CO are all very close and have a reasonable chance at top three with good team performances.
NOTE
... Not Agreeing with the Raw Numbers ... The raw
numbers put Southlake Carroll TX, Keller TX,
and Yankton SD as the bottom three teams in the projection
... Somehow, I find that a bit disturbing because last year the
projection put Southlake Carroll 20th and they finished 3rd
... The Texas girls teams have been difficult to predict because the
Texas girls run mostly 3200 meter XC races including the TX State meet
(Come on Texas officials, the girls can run 5K just like the guys
)
... In 2005, I predicted Southlake TX would finish top four and
they did (thankfully most of the team ran Footlocker South allowing
decent speed ratings to be projected) ... If my ratings for this year's
NTN South regional are "off", I could be wrong again, but I also think
Southlake Carroll is just plain good at preparing and competing
at Portland Meadows, so I think they will finish much better than the
projection ... Keller TX is something of a mystery and may be a
whole lot better than the projection ... Yankton SD doesn't have
a Betsy Bies or Ramsey Kavan this year (that's my only rationale for the
low projection).
Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... (Ratings based on NTN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets) Projected TOP TEN Girls Finishers =================================== Speed Place Name Grade School State Rating ----- ------------------ ----- ------------------ ----- ------ 1 Katie Flood 10 Dowling Catholic IA 158.3 2 Sam Roecker 11 Burnt Hills TC NY 152.2 3 Hannah Davidson 12 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 149.2 4 Georgia Griffin 12 Hanover RC NH 148.4 5 Melanie Thompson 11 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 148.0 6 Courtney Chapman 9 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 147.0 7 Katie Dunn 12 Saugus CA 144.7 8 Kaylin Mahoney 9 Saugus CA 144.3 9 Mackenzie Carter 10 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 144.0 10 Lisa Reyna 10 Fort Collins RC CO 143.0 Speed Team Place Name Grade School State Rating Score ----- ------------------ ----- ------------------ ----- ------ ----- 6 Courtney Chapman 9 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 147.0 97 9 Mackenzie Carter 10 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 144.0 14 Hannah Luber 10 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 141.1 30 Molly Malone 10 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 132.5 38 Jocelyn Richards 12 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 131.1 50 Kathryn Buchan 11 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 128.0 60 Kristen Buchan 11 Stotan (Fay-Manlius) NY 124.6 7 Katie Dunn 12 Saugus CA 144.7 133 8 Kaylin Mahoney 9 Saugus CA 144.3 33 Anne Randall 11 Saugus CA 131.7 41 Brianna Jauregn 11 Saugus CA 131.0 44 Amber Murakami 10 Saugus CA 130.0 45 Nina Moore 12 Saugus CA 129.7 83 Michaelle Bonja 12 Saugus CA 119.0 2 Sam Roecker 11 Burnt Hills TC NY 152.2 240 39 Meaghan Gregory 11 Burnt Hills TC NY 131.0 61 Alyssa Drapeau 8 Burnt Hills TC NY 123.4 64 Riley Wilk 8 Burnt Hills TC NY 122.7 74 Rachael Cyrus 10 Burnt Hills TC NY 121.2 79 Rachel Stalker 9 Burnt Hills TC NY 120.1 81 Martha Brown 12 Burnt Hills TC NY 119.3 3 Hannah Davidson 12 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 149.2 255 22 Cassie Goutos 10 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 137.2 34 Sydney King 9 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 131.6 90 Megan Conway 9 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 117.6 106 Brianne Bellon 10 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 113.1 111 Amanda Borroughs 9 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 112.1 145 Katie Treichel 8 Kinetic RC (Saratoga) NY 95.1 1 Katie Flood 10 Dowling Catholic IA 158.3 262 13 Ashlie Decker 10 Dowling Catholic IA 141.9 62 Betsy Flood 12 Dowling Catholic IA 123.0 70 Tanelle Berard 9 Dowling Catholic IA 121.5 116 Heather Tobias 10 Dowling Catholic IA 110.9 142 Sarah Spellman 10 Dowling Catholic IA 98.2 154 Mary Lacy 12 Dowling Catholic IA 62.5 24 Teeny Adams 10 Esperanza CA 135.4 267 37 Keena Kohl 12 Esperanza CA 131.3 55 Ari Selix 12 Esperanza CA 125.6 71 Rebekah Bahra 9 Esperanza CA 121.5 80 Amy Lu 12 Esperanza CA 119.7 137 Kelly Davidson 11 Esperanza CA 100.9 140 Corey Wood 10 Esperanza CA 99.0 5 Melanie Thompson 11 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 148.0 268 31 Katherine Petruzzellis 10 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 132.3 40 Katrina Spratford 12 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 131.0 67 Colette Whitney 10 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 122.0 125 Christine Curtis 12 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 107.3 149 Maria Baldino 12 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 89.4 150 Jessie Schaumburg 12 Hunterdon Hawks (Voorhees)NJ 88.2 11 Adrienne McGuirk 12 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 142.5 280 15 Noelle VanRysselberghe 11 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 140.2 65 Payton Schutte 9 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 122.5 77 Shanon Mahoney 9 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 120.3 112 Claire Hagler 11 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 112.1 114 Maria Salazar 11 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 111.3 121 Elizabeth Murphy 12 Portland Har (Jesuit) OR 108.8 10 Lisa Reyna 10 Fort Collins RC CO 143.0 290 26 Miranda Benzel 11 Fort Collins RC CO 133.4 66 Rachel Viger 10 Fort Collins RC CO 122.1 92 Kirsten Follett 10 Fort Collins RC CO 117.4 96 Kelsey Follett 12 Fort Collins RC CO 115.0 113 Tati Ogan 11 Fort Collins RC CO 111.8 143 Denise Chilson 10 Fort Collins RC CO 98.0 25 Maggie Bingham 12 Westfield XC IN 134.6 310 35 Kaitlyn Love 11 Westfield XC IN 131.4 68 Waverly Neer 9 Westfield XC IN 121.8 72 Breanne Ehrman 12 Westfield XC IN 121.5 110 Alex Holland 10 Westfield XC IN 112.2 118 Jessica Burton 9 Westfield XC IN 110.7 127 Breanna Smith 10 Westfield XC IN 107.0 18 Amanda Winslow 11 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 139.4 313 27 Nicky Akande 10 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 133.2 57 Allyson McGinty 11 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 125.2 85 Briana Crawford 11 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 118.2 126 Sydney Williams 9 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 107.2 141 Alexa Maring 12 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 98.4 147 Katie Gezon 12 Suwanee (Collins Hill) GA 94.4 4 Georgia Griffin 12 Hanover RC NH 148.4 314 46 Heidi Caldwell 10 Hanover RC NH 129.4 73 Bridgette Black 12 Hanover RC NH 121.3 93 Beth Taylor 12 Hanover RC NH 117.0 98 Grace Rodriguez 11 Hanover RC NH 114.0 105 Cate Brown 12 Hanover RC NH 113.1 144 Meg Donohue 12 Hanover RC NH 98.0 17 Juliet Bottorff 11 Tatnall RC DE 140.0 322 59 Molly Parsons 10 Tatnall RC DE 124.7 63 Kallie Fehr 10 Tatnall RC DE 123.0 86 Katie Kershner 12 Tatnall RC DE 118.1 97 Katie Buenaga 11 Tatnall RC DE 115.0 103 Katie Oldham 11 Tatnall RC DE 113.4 109 Haley Pierce 8 Tatnall RC DE 112.3 36 Lucy Whipps 10 Blues (St Mary's) OR 131.3 328 49 Alexandra Jones 11 Blues (St Mary's) OR 128.0 52 Alexa Kearns 10 Blues (St Mary's) OR 127.4 87 Taylor Ffitch 12 Blues (St Mary's) OR 118.0 104 Jen Olson 10 Blues (St Mary's) OR 113.3 138 Erin Bergmann 9 Blues (St Mary's) OR 99.2 139 Tara Higgins 12 Blues (St Mary's) OR 99.1 42 Andrea Keklak 9 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 131.0 329 51 Dana Jamieson 12 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 128.0 69 Ellie Hylton 11 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 121.6 78 Claire Arthur 10 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 120.3 89 Emily Mepham 12 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 118.0 115 Holly Clarke 10 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 111.3 136 Rachael Potter 11 Wicked (Linc-Sudbury) MA 101.3 19 Tori Pennings 12 Warwick Valley RC NY 138.7 332 21 Lillian Greibesland 10 Warwick Valley RC NY 138.1 84 Claire Pettit 12 Warwick Valley RC NY 118.5 88 Kim Naples 11 Warwick Valley RC NY 118.0 120 Kayla Leahey 10 Warwick Valley RC NY 109.3 151 Megan Mydosh 9 Warwick Valley RC NY 86.4 153 Lisa DiVenuta 11 Warwick Valley RC NY 81.0 12 Madeline Morgan 11 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 142.3 334 28 Marie Demedicis 9 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 133.1 91 Brigid Carey 12 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 117.5 95 Catherine Diethelm 9 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 115.0 108 Leslie Boozer 11 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 112.4 128 Mary Catherine Farrar 8 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 106.8 133 Reed Ellis 12 Caution TC (Mtn Brook) AL 102.1 47 Dana Payonk 10 Lake Central IN 129.2 346 53 Megan Plenus 10 Lake Central IN 126.9 54 Rachel Zajac 11 Lake Central IN 126.0 75 Anna Bona 12 Lake Central IN 121.2 117 Anna Kacius 9 Lake Central IN 110.9 122 Jackie Henderson 12 Lake Central IN 108.1 132 Kailey Jensen 10 Lake Central IN 103.0 16 Natalie Haws 12 Davis RC UT 140.1 347 23 Candace Eddy 11 Davis RC UT 136.0 82 Emily Hansen 10 Davis RC UT 119.3 107 Loren Storey 12 Davis RC UT 113.0 119 Julianne Wirthlin 11 Davis RC UT 109.9 129 Meghan Hedquist 9 Davis RC UT 105.4 134 Hollie King 11 Davis RC UT 102.1 20 Tara Upshaw 11 Southlake Carroll TX 138.6 350 48 Taylor Stephens 12 Southlake Carroll TX 128.1 58 Jessica Harper 10 Southlake Carroll TX 124.8 101 Lauren Hill 12 Southlake Carroll TX 113.6 123 Caitlin Gilbert 11 Southlake Carroll TX 108.1 130 Lucia Xiong 11 Southlake Carroll TX 104.0 146 Jill Pawlowski 12 Southlake Carroll TX 94.6 32 Laleh Mojtabaeezamani 12 Keller RC TX 131.7 374 43 Kelly Dawson 12 Keller RC TX 130.6 76 Chelsea Scott 10 Keller RC TX 121.0 99 Ashley Vincent 10 Keller RC TX 113.8 124 Julie Durrwachter 10 Keller RC TX 107.8 148 Shelby Coval 9 Keller RC TX 92.3 152 Emma Reed 10 Keller RC TX 85.1 29 Mariah Hofer 10 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 132.7 381 56 Megan Hilson 10 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 125.4 94 Kristin Sternhagen 12 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 115.8 100 Jade Steinberg 12 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 113.6 102 Krista Creager 11 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 113.5 131 Ethelin Cammock 10 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 103.0 135 Hiley Cammock 9 3-D Run (Yankton) SD 102.0