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October 31, 2006 ... Boys & Girls pre-race Projections for the 2006 Section 3 Championships
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 31, 2006 ...
ACTUAL Scores & Comments added on November 4, 2006 ...
| Boys Class AA - FM the favorite with Liverpool second (same as last year) |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 35 Liverpool 39
2 Liverpool 50 FM 42
3 CNS 80 CNS 78
4 Baldwinsville 124 Baldwinsville 130
5 Auburn 167 Auburn 140
6 Oswego 183 Rome 171
7 Rome 183 Oswego 198
8 West Genesee 203 West Genesee 199
9 Central Square 205 Central Square 202
10 Proctor 303 Proctor 315
11 Corcoran 345 Corcoran 345
12 Henninger 345 Henninger 352
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POST-Race Comments ... Liverpool ran a great team race on their home course and upset FM ... the rest of the Class AA teams were evaluated decently ... Tommy Gruenewald (FM) won easily as expected. Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool at OHSL by a score of 47 to 101, but Colin Heenan did not run for Liverpool at OHSL (had he run, the score would have been 30-35 point closer) ... the score above assumes Heenan runs ... Cicero-North Syracuse looks like a solid choice to finish third. The computer simulation had some problems handling the scores for the 5th - 9th teams above ... most of these teams show inconsistencies (especially with some runners at OHSL), and the resulting scores varied widely ... on best performance, Auburn finished as high as 4th. Individual Race ... Tommy Gruenewald (FM) is the solid favorite to win ... Geoff King (FM) appears second-best, but a good performance by Colin Heenan (on his home course) could make it close ... Chris Mason (Auburn) is next in the individual Class AA rankings ... Ethan Hickey (Liverpool) and Luke Fitzgibbons (FM) appear even-up, and that's how they finished at OHSL.
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| Boys Class A - Whitesboro favored to repeat as class champion |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Whitesboro 42 Whitesboro 33
2 ESM 77 ** ESM 82
3 Mexico 89 Mexico 95
4 Jamesville Dewitt 108 Jamesville-Dewitt 107
3 Watertown 116 Watertown 112
6 Nottingham 127 Nottingham 131
7 Fulton 160 Fulton 154
8 Carthage 215 Carthage 222
9 Camden 294 Camden 261
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POST-Race Comments ... the computer simulation did quite well with this race ... Jonathan Szczesniak (Whitesboro) repeated as sectional champion. Pre-Race Analysis ... Whitesboro appears to have a solid margin on East Syracuse-Minoa ... the ESM score includes top runner Jeff Sweeney who did not run at OHSL (and had an off-race at Freedom Divisions); without Sweeney, the ESM score would place them just behind JD. Individual Race ... several runners appear in contention for the individual championship ... they include Jonathan Szczesniak (Whitesboro, last year's class winner), Dylan Hardwick (Watertown), Evan Oustrich (Mexico), and Dave Rugari (Whitesboro).
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| Boys Class B - Too Close To Call .... |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Holland Patent 70 Westhill 53
2 Westhill 70 Holland Patent 56
3 Marcellus 83 Marcellus 82
4 South Jefferson 103 South Jefferson 91
3 New Hartford 104 VVS 128
6 VVS 153 New Hartford 173
7 Chittenango 170 Chittenango 190
8 Phoenix 210 Solvay 214
9 Solvay 268 Phoenix 221
10 Cortland 280 Cortland 265
11 Homer 284 Homer 277
12 Oneida 316 Oneida 346
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POST-Race Comments ... the race was very close as expected with Westhill winning by three points ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) and Zach Ornelas (South Jefferson) ran one-two. Pre-Race Analysis ... A very tight match-up between Westhill and Holland Patent ... Marcellus, South Jefferson and New Hartford are within striking distance ...Westhill beat Marcellus by 220 to 253 at OHSL ... Holland Patent beat New Hartford at the TVL League meet by 32 to 62. The contest between Westhill and Holland Patent comes down the finishing position of the #4 and #5 runners ... top performances by the #4 and #5 runners from the other contenders give them a chance ... This could be an interesting race. Individual Race ... Zach Ornelas (South Jefferson), Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) and Andrew Corcoran (Westhill) are the top rated Class "B" individuals.
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| Boys Class C - Tully a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Tully 47 Tully 29
2 Sauquoit Valley 120 Sauquoit Valley 116
3 Bishop Ludden 129 Bishop Ludden 130
4 Canastota 150 Clinton 168
5 Clinton 185 Canastota 178
6 South Lewis 192 Pulaski 195
7 Skaneateles 201 CBA 206
8 Pulaski 217 Skaneateles 209
9 Cazenovia 236 ** South Lewis 217
10 CBA 255 Jordan-Elbridge 253
11 APW 277 Cazenovia 258
12 Jordan-Elbridge 279 APW 261
13 Sherburne-Earl 373 Ilion 353
14 Herkimer 376 Sherburne-Earl 377
15 Adirondack 408 Cato-Meridian 384
16 Cato Meridian 423 Adirondack 461
17 Mount Markham 423 Westmoreland 492
18 Westmoreland 463 Herkimer 535
19 Herkimer 560 Hannibal 536
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POST-Race Comments ... Tully ran an exceptionally good race ... Tully ran one-two-three (Chris Burke running his best race ever) Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully is the solid favorite to become Class "C" champion (Tully was Class "D" champion in 2003) ... Tully finished a very good 3rd at OHSL, and is the top ranked Class "C" public school in NY State. Sauquoit Valley and Bishop Ludden are relatively close for the runner-up position ... Sauquoit gets the nod because they seem to be improving and usually run well at sectionals ... Sauquoit beat Canastota at the CSC League Championships (60 to 86) ... Bishop Ludden finished 12th at OHSL, but will need to run somewhat better to beat Canastota. A top runner for Cazenovia (Robert Taube) has not raced since early October (at Disney); if he does not run, Cazenovia's predicted finish place is 12th. Individual Race ... Mike Heymann (Tully) and Scott VanderMolen (Tully) enter the race as the individual favorites ... Jordan Sirtoli (Mount Markham) and Sean Curry (Bishop Ludden) are not far behind.
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| Boys Class D - Cooperstown favored again |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Cooperstown 47 Cooperstown 54
2 Fabius-Pompey 75 Fabius-Pompey 62
3 Beaver River 76 Weedsport 83
4 Weedsport 89 Beaver River 102
3 Oriskany 141 Oriskany 200
6 New York Mills 203 New York Mills 203
7 Onondaga 208 LaFayette 226
8 LaFayette 226 Onondaga 229
9 Little Falls 297 West Canada Valley 239
10 West Canada Valley 304 Utica Notre Dame 279
11 MPH 306 Old Forge 289
12 Utica Notre Dame 306 MPH 294
13 Old Forge 314 Little Falls 300
14 Hamilton 385 Waterville 318
15 Port Byron 418 DeRuyter 441
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POST-Race Comments ... the race ran reasonably to form with Fabius-Pompey making it closer than expected Pre-Race Analysis ... Cooperstown is the defending State Class "D" champion and the top ranked Class "D" team in the State ... they came up very big at last year's sectional and State meets. Fabius-Pompey and Beaver River appear evenly-matched in the 2nd and 3rd positions with Weedsport close behind ... Fabius beat Weedsport at OHSL (442 to 515) Individual Race ... .. Mike Trendell (Waterville) and Stephen Scrafford (Cooperstown) are the top ranked individuals.
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| Girls Class AA - Fayetteville-Manlius handily with CNS second |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 32 FM 35
2 CNS 65 CNS 56
3 West Genesee 89 West Genesee 76
4 Baldwinsville 111 Liverpool 119
5 Liverpool 113 Baldwinsville 127
6 Rome 172 Rome 163
7 Auburn 209 Auburn 225
8 Oswego 251 Oswego 241
9 Proctor 257 Proctor 247
10 Central Square 301 Central Square 297
11 Corcoran 306 Corcoran 308
12 Henninger 363 Henninger 353
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POST-Race Comments
...
the computer simulation handling this race quite well ... Elizabeth
McMahon (West Genesee), Mackenzie Carter (FM) and Kathyrn Buchan
(FM) ran one-two-three as expected. Pre-Race Analysis ... FM (Fayetteville-Manlius) beat CNS (Cicero-North Syracuse) at the OHSL Meet by a score of 40 to 85 ... West Genesee was third with a score of 131 ... those relative scores are maintained in this projection with the smaller OHSL schools removed. Baldwinsville and Liverpool tied at OHSL (team scores of 199 with Liverpool ahead via 6th runner) ... Baldwinsville gets a a small advantage from the computer simulation for this race, but Longbranch Park is Liverpool's home course. Individual Race ... Elizabeth McMahon (West Genesee) is the favorite to win the Class AA race (she won OHSL handily); she has not been beaten by any current Section 3 runner in the past two years ... FM's Mackenzie Carter has been running well (2nd at OHSL) ... Kathyrn Buchan (FM) was an impressive 3rd at OHSL.
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| Girls Class A - Mexico favored to repeat as sectional champion |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Mexico 36 Mexico 40
2 ESM 59 ** Whitesboro 47
3 Jamesville Dewitt 75 Jamesville-Dewitt 64
4 Whitesboro 77 ESM 85
5 Fulton 164 Fulton 170
6 Nottingham 183 Camden 178
7 Carthage 185 Carthage 183
8 Camden 200 Nottingham 193
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POST-Race Comments ... Mexico won as expected, but Whitesboro ran very well to make it close ... ESM was fourth (this was expected if the ESM one runner had been injured) ... Leah Andrianos (ESM) won easily. Pre-Race Analysis ... Mexico appears to be a solid favorite to repeat as the Class "A" sectional champion. East Syracuse-Minoa (ESM) finished second in the computer simulation, but the simulation used Meghan Visser who has not raced for ESM in recent races (missed OHSL and Freedom Champ races) ... without her, ESM would drop to a close 4th behind JD and Whitesboro (JD beat ESM at OHSL) ... JD and Whitesboro seem evenly matched. Individual Race ... Leah Andrianos (ESM) is the solid favorite to win Class A.
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| Girls Class B - Westhill gets the nod over South Jeff and Homer |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 78 Westhill 81
2 South Jefferson 99 South Jefferson 98
3 Homer 106 New Hartford 111
4 VVS 121 Marcellus 113
5 Marcellus 134 VVS 113
6 New Hartford 147 Homer 132
7 Cortland 161 Cortland 167
8 Chittenango 162 Chittenango 169
9 Holland Patent 163 Holland Patent 170
10 Oneida 263 Phoenix 274
11 Phoenix 273 Solvay 288
12 Solvay 278 Oneida 299
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POST-Race Comments ... the race ran generally to form with one exception ... Homer's top runner (Heather Wilson) was sick during the week and unable to finish the race ... Michelle Brandt (Chittenango) won impressively. Pre-Race Analysis ... Perennial contender Westhill looks like a winner again ... Westhill ran well at OHSLs to finish 7th ... South Jefferson and Homer seem evenly matched in this race (Homer's Heather Wilson and Caitlin McMahon are improving which may help lower the team score). The teams in the 4th through 9th (as predicted above) switch places frequently in the computer simulations (especially 6th - 9th). Individual Race ... This could be a real good contest between Michelle Brandt (Chittenango), Ryan Kelly (VVS), Margaret Knight (Cortland) and Heather Wilson (Homer) ... Margaret Knight won the Class A championship last year.
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| Girls Class C - Skaneateles the favorite in an interesting race |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Skaneateles 75 Skaneateles 46
2 Tully 90 CBA 94
3 CBA 95 Sauquoit Valley 102
4 Sauquoit Valley 96 Tully 111
5 Canastota 104 Pulaski 123
6 Pulaski 129 Canastota 130
7 Jordan-Elbridge 166 Jordan-Elbridge 158
8 Cazenovia 189 ** Cazenovia 208
9 Ilion 267 Ilion 256
10 Adirondack 285 Adirondack 315
11 Westmoreland 330 Westmoreland 321
12 Clinton 337 Clinton 326
13 Cato Meridian 343 Cato-Meridian 344
14 Sherburne-Earl 424
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POST-Race Comments ... Skaneateles won with an impressive team performance ... Jen Pernisi (APW) finished strongly over the final 800 meters to win the individual title. Pre-Race Analysis ... Skaneateles is the favorite ... but that's the only consensus the computer simulation could determine ... All of the contending teams have a high degree of variability in their performance records and that opens this race up more than might be expected ... If the top five Skaneateles runners perform well, then Skaneateles should win ... If not, the race is up for grabs. There are many runners at similar performance levels amongst the contending teams, and place-switching occurs frequently (with large swings) during the simulations ... any team that has five runners perform well (in combination with minor slips from other teams) has a chance to win. Skaneateles ran well on the Longbranch course at the Liverpool Invitational and beat Tully and CBA at OHSL ... in a three-way team score from OHSL, Skaneateles would have beaten Tully by a score of 35 to 44 (and Tully's normal #3 finished #7). CBA's Katie Webster (106 speed rating early in the year) just returned from an injury at Warwick to run at OHSL (with a 92 rating) ... Jordan-Elbridge would be part of the mix, but top runner Nicole Darling is out with a stress fracture ... Cazenovia's score above could improve with the inclusion of Meaghan Liddell, but she has not raced since the Tully Invite. Individual Race ... This could be another tight race ... contenders include Jen Pernisi (APW), Hannah Waite (Skaneateles) and Francesca Minale (CBA) ... Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit) has won this race before.
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| Girls Class D - Improving LaFayette becomes the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 LaFayette 65 LaFayette 65
2 Beaver River 75 Beaver River 80
3 Onondaga 92 Onondaga 80
4 Weedsport 99 Weedsport 86
5 Remsen 112 ** Remsen 144
6 Cooperstown 173 Cooperstown 151
7 Utica Notre Dame 193 Utica Notre Dame 164
8 Fabius-Pompey 212 Fabius-Pompey 188
9 Sandy Creek 249 Sandy Creek 199
10 West Canada Valley 257 Little Falls 254
11 Little Falls 276 Oriskany 277
12 Oriskany 305 Waterville 289
13 Waterville 348
14 Poland 361
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POST-Race Comments ... once again, the simulation did decently with this race ... The pre-race individual favorite (Christine Mulvihill, Remsen) did not run because she fractured a bone in her foot at the Adirondack Invitational the previous week. Pre-Race Analysis ... LaFayette finished a very nice 12th at OHSL ... their strength is their top three runners (Kelseigh Groth, Bobbie Steeprock and Katie Littlefield) who could place in the top ten finishers ... the #4 and #5 runners (Maddy Doward and Amy Evans) have been improving nicely during the season, and that's the reason LaFayette is favored ... this race will likely be determined by the #4 and #5 runners. Beaver River was hurt when Diana Zehr fractured her foot earlier in the season, but Beaver River still has some good runners and they know how to win this race ... Onondaga has only five runners on the team (they were incomplete at OHSL) ... Both Weedsport and Onondaga are not that far behind ... Remsen would be a contender, but one runner has not raced since the SE Invite. Individual Race ... Christine Mulvihill (Remsen) is the favorite to win.
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