Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Shenendehowa             89     (02-AA)       Shenendehowa               98
 2   Smithtown               168     (11-AA)       Collegiate                151
 3   FM                      179     (03-AA)       FM                        154
 4   Liverpool               183     (03-AA)       Smithtown                 171
 5   Warwick                 189     (09-AA)       Queensbury                200
 6   Queensbury              199     (02-A )       Shaker                    217
 7   Collegiate              201     (AIS  )       Liverpool                 220
 8   Chaminade               208     (CHSAA)       Warwick Valley            264
 9   Shaker                  280     (02-AA)       Chaminade                 270
 10  St. Anthony's           293     (CHSAA)       Burnt Hills               279
 11  Burnt Hills             304     (02-A )       Ithaca                    292
 12  Guilderland             325     (02-AA)       Guilderland               308
 13  Ithaca                  341     (04-AA)       Tully                     309
 14  Kellenberg              366     (CHSAA)       Arlington                 319
 15  Niskayuna               368     (02-AA)       Kellenberg                340
 16  Honeoye Falls-Lima      391     (05-B )       St. Anthony's             356
 17  Arlington               399     (01-AA)       Honeoye Falls-Lima        403
 18  Tully                   414     (03-C )       Curtis                    429
 19  Cicero-North Syracuse   441     (03-AA)       Cicero-North Syracuse     430
 20  Curtis                  472     (PSAL )       Niskayuna                 469
 21  McClancy                472     (CHSAA)       Fordham Prep              510
 22  Fordham Prep            486     (CHSAA)       Stuyvesant                534
 23  Shoreham-Wading Riv     534     (11-B )       Msgr. McClancy            575
 24  Stuyvesant              562     (PSAL )       Shoreham-Wading Riv       624
 25  Canisius                760     (CHSAA)       McKee/Staten              684
 26  McKee/Staten            792     (PSAL )       Canisius                  692
 27  Midwoood                822     (PSAL )       Midwood                   731
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Some of the scores above are NOT the actual numbers that came from the computer simulation ... I manually adjusted some scores (which is explained below) ... The actual simulation composite had Shenendehowa followed by Warwick, Smithtown, FM, Liverpool, Queensbury, Collegiate and Chaminade.

The final scores of this particular race are very difficult to predict for three reasons: (1) the status of injured runners, (2) a large degree of performance variability amongst individual runners, and (3) the remarkable closeness of groups of runners.

Some stats on the closeness of various groups of team runners from the computer composite:
 .. Number of runners with a speed rating greater than 180 = 23
 .. Number of runners with a speed rating between 170 and 180 = 46
 .. Number of runners with a speed rating between 170 and 175 = 28
 .. Number of runners with a speed rating between 170 and 165 = 27
 .. Number of runners with a speed rating between 180 and 165 = 73

Putting these stats into perspective (and the numbers pertain only to team runners) ... The rating range between 175 and 165 (which is a prime range for determining the final team scores of the top teams) encompasses 30 seconds, and in that 30 seconds, 55 runners are projected to finish ... that's a rate of 1.8 runners finishing per second ... So if any runner improves by just 15 seconds, he could lower his team score by over 25 points  ... Conversely, if he runs 15 seconds slower (not good) ... The #4 and #5 runners are a very big factor in determining these team scores.

Shenendehowa ... The one constant in the computer simulations was that Shenendehowa won a very high percentage of the time (but not all the time) ... a couple of "off-performances" at the wrong positions combined with exceptional races by the #4 and #5 runners of several other teams can result in a Shenendehowa loss; but statistically, it is a fairly remote possibility because Shen has team depth at the #6 and #7 positions ... Therefore, Shenendehowa is the solid favorite to win.

Smithtown ... Smithtown is one of the relatively consistent teams at the scoring positions ... They have run well all season ... Smithtown was clearly second-best at the State Class Meet (in both Class AA and merged results) ... Based on Smithtown's consistency and recent performances, I manually moved Smithtown up to #2 in the projection.

Warwick Valley ... Warwick finished second in a fair number of computer simulations (including the composite) ... But when the simulation is skewed (with more weight given to States), Warwick does not finish second ... At States, they were 4th in Class AA and 5th in the merge ... At last year's Federation Meet, I projected Warwick to finish 3rd, and they finished 5th ... So based strictly off their performance at States (on their home course) and last year's results, I moved Warwick down in the projection.

Collegiate ... This is the mystery team in my opinion, and I do not know where they will finish (it is a big guess) ... Clearly, the determining factor is the performance of Dylan Trotzuk (he has been injured since running a good race at Great American on September 23rd) ... If he could run back to the performance level of Great American, Collegiate would be projected to finish 60 to 80 points lower (combine that with one "off-performance" in Shenendehowa's scorers, and Collegiate could beat Shen) ... But based off recent performances by Trotzuk, it is hard to predict a top performance allowing Collegiate to finish second ... The score above is just a statistical guess.

Fayetteville-Manlius ... The FM team score benefits a great deal from likely good finishes by Tommy Gruenewald and Geoff King ... excellent performances by their #4 and #5 runners could place FM as high as second (or better depending on how Shen performs).

Liverpool ... Liverpool finished third in the State Meet merge (with a score similar to the projection above).

Queensbury ... Queensbury finished fourth in the State Meet merge (with a score similar to the projection above).

Chaminade ... Chaminade is definitely within striking distance of many teams projected above them.

Individual Race ... This is Match-Up #2 between Steve Murdock (Shen), Tommy Gruenewald (FM) and Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) ... All three runners looked very tired at the finish of the State Class AA race (especially BRD) ... Off that race, Steve Murdock is the clear favorite (he raced well at Bowdoin Park last year where he finished second to BRD) ... Tommy Gruenewald can run well on any course or under any conditions ... Brian Rhodes-Devey has run exceptionally well at Bowdoin Park - he won impressively last year and finished 9th as a sophomore.

 

                          Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Saratoga                130     (02-AA)       FM                        103
 2   Hilton                  136     (05-AA)       Hilton                    128
 3   FM                      139     (03-AA)       Saratoga                  142
 4   Greenwich               167     (02-C )       Burnt Hills               144
 5   East Aurora             168     (06-B )       East Aurora               157
 6   Burnt Hills             169     (02-A )       Greenwich                 189
 7   Warwick                 209     (09-AA)       Bay Shore                 204
 8   Shenendehowa            211     (02-AA)       Warwick Valley            228
 9   Honeoye Falls-Lima      224     (05-B )       Shenendehowa              235
 10  Carmel                  239     (01-AA)       Honeoye Falls-Lima        241
 11  Colonie                 264     (02-AA)       Ward Melville             242
 12  Queensbury              278     (02-A )       Colonie                   269
 13  Bay Shore               285     (11-AA)       Queensbury                283
 14  Columbia                297     (02-AA)       Carmel                    334
 15  Ward Melville           299     (11-AA)       Arlington                 374
 16  Arlington               362     (01-AA)       Columbia                  386
 17  St. John Baptist        495     (CHSAA)       St. John Baptist          475
 18  St. John Villa          523     (CHSAA)       St. John Villa            507
 19  St. Anthonys            595     (CHSAA)       Tottenville               540
 20  Bishop Kearney          633     (CHSAA)       Townsend Harris           566
 21  Tottenville             650     (PSAL )       St. Anthony's             586
 22  Townsend Harris         651     (PSAL )       Bishop Kearney            681
 23  Kellenberg              669     (CHSAA)       Curtis                    693
 24  Curtis                  694     (PSAL )       Kellenberg                739
 25  Sacred Heart-Buffalo    749     (CHSAA)       Jamaica                   750
 26  Packer Collegiate       783     (AIS  )       Packer Collegiate         773
 27  Jamaica                 789     (PSAL )       Sacred Heart-Buffalo      853

Pre-Race Analysis ... Only 27 points separated the top five teams in the State Class Meet merge (FM-162, Saratoga-175, Hilton-178, East Aurora-184 and Burnt Hills-189) ... In the projection above, only 39 points separate the top six teams!

The computer simulations had Hilton, Saratoga and FM all winning a fair percentage of races with Hilton winning a slightly higher percentage than the other two teams ... Interestingly, the simulations also showed Greenwich, East Aurora and Burnt Hills with a capability to win (but at a much lower percentage ... and it required off-races by the top three).

The key speed rating range in determining the girl's team scores falls between the mid 120's down to 114-110 ... roughly 43 team runners fall into this range ... Obviously, the #3, #4 and #5 runners are incredibly important in the outcome.

Saratoga ... Saratoga came out on top in the final composite ... the reason being the strength of their #6 and #7 runners compared to the other teams ... The Saratoga girls have raced very well at Bowdoin Park in recent years ... Therefore, Saratoga is the slight favorite.

Hilton ... My take on Hilton at Feds is very similar to my prediction of Hilton at NTN last year (just substitute Shelby Herman for Amanda Griggs) ... I said if the injured Amanda Griggs returned to form (or even close to it), Hilton would win NTN (and they did) ... until the State Class meet (Nov 11), Shelby Herman had not raced in an invitational or championship race since Manhattan (Oct 14) due to a foot injury ... her rating at States (113) is roughly a minute slower than her typical race ... if she returns anywhere near that level (and the other four Hilton runners perform consistently), then Hilton will likely win Federations.

Fayetteville-Manlius ... FM ran better at States than sectionals or OHSL (and that was their key to winning States) ... and they have more potential in the tank ... FM did not come out on top in the computer simulations because of less-than-best performances at sectionals and OHSL ... If FM can duplicate their overall Manhattan performances, FM will be very tough to beat.

Greenwich ... The potential is there ... but it all needs to happen now.

Individual Race ... Absolutely top-shelf in quality ... includes four Footlocker Finalists from last year in Hannah Davidson (Saratoga), Liz Deir (HFL), Caitlin Lane (Greenwich) and Shelby Greany (Suffern) ... Allison Sawyer (Hilton) won States with the fastest time of the day ... Now add eight additional runners with composite speed ratings above 140 ... This is a true championship race.