NYSPHSAA State Meet 2006 - Predictions

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 6, 2006 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... Actual Scores & Comments Added on November 12, 2006

[Girls Predictions]

Boys Class AA - Shenendehowa the favorite


                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shenendehowa         (02)      48        Shenendehowa           42
  2   Warwick Valley       (09)      61        Smithtown              66
  3   Smithtown            (11)      69        Liverpool              80
  4   Liverpool            (03)      85        Warwick Valley         83
  5   Arlington            (01)     120        Ithaca                110
  6   Ithaca               (04)     143        Arlington             167
  7   Fairport             (05)     177        Clarence              169
  8   Clarence             (06)     198        Fairport              175
  9   Syosset              (08)     218        Syosset               256

Post-Race Comments ... Shenendehowa won pretty much as expected ... Smithtown ran to form and finished second with Warwick Valley unable to capitalize on their home-course advantage ... Liverpool ran a decent team race and finished third.

Steve Murdock (Shenedehowa) opened a sizeable margin on Tommy Gruenewald (FM) during the race ... Although Gruenewald was closing the margin over the final 400 meters, Murdock won handily ... Both runners appeared very "tired" at the finish ... Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) was clearly "leg-weary" over the finishing stretch ... Geoff King (FM) finished strongly to grab third.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is the last race of day ... Throughout these predictions (all classes), I will mention computer simulated races ... As a brief explanation of computer simulated races, I use the seasonal speed ratings for every runner in a race and derive a profile (a range distribution that the runner has been running with emphasis on recent races) ... to simulate a race, the computer randomly selects any point on each runner's profile range (using a random number generator) and compiles the results for that race ... since there are many possible random outcomes, the simulation runs hundreds of thousands of random races and saves the results ... when complete, the total simulation shows the percentage of races won by any team and an average outcome with team scores ... the overall simulation includes individual race results where any team has great performances, average performances and poor performances ... In general, the average team scores are close to scores predicted using the overall speed ratings from the individual rankings - but simulations give a sense of variability and possibilities (and I like doing them).

This race may be interesting from several aspects ... Shenendehowa's best team speed ratings of the year have occurred at Saratoga Park (sectionals and the dual meet with Shaker) ... It is common that a team's best performances occur at a course they are very familiar with and the course is close to home (meaning no long distance or over-night traveling) ... At the Warwick Invitational, Shenendehowa beat Warwick Valley handily in the merge, but that was over a month ago and both teams have shown improvement (especially Warwick Valley) ... The computer simulations (which are based strictly on speed ratings) give Shenendehowa a clear advantage on the competition ... But Warwick Valley has improved and they have the home-course advantage which could be an important factor in the outcome ... Warwick Valley's sectional ratings (186, 184, 182, 178, 174) were good and Mike Fox (who has two 177 ratings to his credit) did not run ... Personally, I will find it interesting to see if Shenendehowa can duplicate their Saratoga Park performances at an outside course (I think they can, but I want to see it either here or at Bowdoin Park).

Smithtown is not far behind and within a challenging position, but they need big performances from their #4 and #5 runners ... Liverpool upset Fayetteville-Manlius on Liverpool's home-course to qualify for States.

Individual Race ... This is a marquee match-up of the three top-rated runners in the State ... Tommy Gruenewald (FM) is unbeaten this season including a record-breaking performance at Van Cortlandt Park ... Steve Murdock (Shenedehowa) beat Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) at sectionals in fast time over the Saratoga Park course ... Last year at States, Murdock (who was running for Saratoga HS) was caught in the final strides by Rhodes-Devey (and Murdock was coming off a fast win over Rhodes-Devey at sectionals, just like this year) ... Both Gruenewald and Murdock like to control the pace, so the early and mid-stages of this race should be interesting to watch.

Boys Class A - Queensbury handily - again

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Queensbury           (02)      38        Queensbury             44
  2   Sayville             (11)      77        Victor                 59
  3   Cornwall             (09)      83        Sayville               96
  4   Victor               (05)      98        Cornwall              102
  5   Horace Greeley       (01)     118        Horace Greeley        125
  6   Wantagh              (08)     128        Wantagh               139
  7   Whitesboro           (03)     168        Whitesboro            158
  8   Kenmore East         (06)     197        Kenmore East          191
  9   Vestal               (04)     220        Vestal                240

Post-Race Comments ... Queensbury won easily as expected ... The surprise was an excellent performance by Victor to finish second (and not that far behind Queensbury) ... the remaining teams ran generally to form.

Zach Rivers (Victor) popped another big performance to win with Matt Flint (Queensbury) second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury was a big favorite to win last year and they won easily ... they are another big favorite this year ... Queensbury is deep and talented.

Sayville finished second in a fair percentage of computer simulations ... But Cornwall is very close behind and Cornwall should be very familiar with the course (which could give them an advantage) ... Victor could surprise with top performances from their #4 and #5 runners.

Individual Race ... Charles White (Garden City) is the defending Class A champion and the favorite to repeat ... a number of good runners are close behind and could make this a very tight finish in the top five positions - Kyle Merber (Half Hollow Hills West), Zach Rivers (Victor, big performance at sectionals), Matt Flint (Queensbury), Drew Houghtalen (Burnt Hills), sophomore Joe Whelan (Hamburg, could be the surprise), Colin Anderson (Cornwall), Ryan Pezzulo (Burnt Hills), and others.

Boys Class B - Byram Hills a solid favorite

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Byram Hills          (01)      44        Honeoye Falls-Lima     50
  2   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      90        Byram Hills            69
  3   Windsor              (04)      98        Shoreham-Wading Riv    79
  4   Shoreham-Wading Riv  (11)     110        Windsor                97
  5   Westhill             (03)     116        Westhill              120
  6   Red Hook             (09)     128        Red Hook              186
  7   Plattsburgh          (07)     177        Fredonia              192
  8   Fredonia             (06)     192        Canton                195
  9   Canton               (10)     230        Plattsburgh           216
  10  North Shore          (08)     243        North Shore           225
  11  Ichabod Crane        (02)     283        Ichabod Crane         277

Post-Race Comments ... Honeoye Falls-Lima ran a super race to upset Byram Hills ... Honeoye Falls-Lima put three runners in before Byram Hills #2 finisher (and that was not predicted at all) ... Maybe it had something to do with the "Mohawk" hair-cuts on Honeoye Falls-Lima (or not).

Cory Reed (James O'Neill) won handily ... following were Stephen Benedict (Windsor) and Ryan O'Connor (East Aurora).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Byram Hills is the definite favorite in the Class B race ... Byram Hills had to run very well to beat Pearl River (the next top-ranked Class B team in NY) at sectionals.

Honeoye Falls-Lima and Windsor are closely matched for second ... Shoreham-Wading River shows potential to grab second

Individual Race ... Very interesting and potentially close amongst a number of runners ... Ryan O'Connor (East Aurora) is the current top-rated runner, but his recent ratings coming from extremely muddy or snow-covered courses (so I'm not really sure how he might perform at Warwick) ... Mike Hickey (Pearl River) beat Max Kasak (Byram Hills) at sectionals ... Stephen Benedict (Windsor) has been running very well recently, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win ... Cory Reed (James O'Neill), Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) and Zach Ornelas (South Jefferson) are evenly-rated.

Boys Class C - Tully slightly favored over Pawling

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Tully                (03)      58        Tully                  39
  2   Pawling              (01)      69        Pawling                78
  3   Byron-Bergen         (05)     122        Newark Valley          87
  4   Newark Valley        (04)     123        Wilson                114
  5   Wilson               (06)     127        Byron-Bergen          117
  6   Voorheesville        (02)     128        Millbrook             175
  7   Millbrook            (09)     149        Voorheesville         178
  8   Saranac Lake         (07)     198        Saranac Lake          187
  9   Port Jefferson       (11)     202        Port Jefferson        200
  10  Wheatley             (08)     234        Wheatley              270
  11  Gouverneur           (10)     301        Gouverneur            303

Post-Race Comments ... Tully ran their best team race of season to win convincingly ... Newark Valley ran very well, and finished close to Pawling.

Tom Reubens (Wilson) won the individual title handily with a very good performance over Colby Delbene (Pawling) and Zach Borenstein (Edgemont).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully and Pawling have already met once this year at the Tully Invitational where Tully won by only 5 points on their home course ... the Tully guys have been running very well lately and get the advantage in the computer simulations, but this race could get very close ... the #4 and #5 runners are very important in this race.

Byron-Bergen, Newark Valley, Wilson and Voorheesville are a complete toss-up in the computer simulations ... I doubt it will finish that close, but no team seems to have an advantage on the others.

Individual Race ... Colby Delbene (Pawling), Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey) and Tom Reubens (Wilson) are very closely rated ... Colby Delbene (Pawling) did not run at sectionals (rumored injury), but is expected to run at States since the Pawling team qualified ... Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey) finished 2nd in this race last year and won it in 2004 at Chenango Valley State Park ... Tom Reubens (Wilson, 8th last year) won the Empire State Games 5K this summer ... Zach Borenstein (Edgemont) missed half the season, but has been coming on strong and could surprise.

Boys Class D - Cooperstown favored to repeat

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Cooperstown          (03)      70        Franklinville          65
  2   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)      90        Cooperstown            77
  3   Franklinville        (06)      93        Norwood-Norfolk        85
  4   Oakfield-Alabama     (05)      95        Oakfield-Alabama      105
  5   North Warren         (02)     101        North Warren          112
  6   Ticonderoga          (07)     127        Marathon              147
  7   Marathon             (04)     153        Ticonderoga           154
  8   Stony Brook          (11)     164        Stony Brook           159
  9   Chapel Field         (09)     238        Keio                  232
  10  Keio                 (01)     255        Chapel Field          262

Post-Race Comments ... Franklinville ran a really good and consistent team race to upset defending champion Cooperstown.

Lee Berube (Ticonderoga) and Christian Thompson (Candor) treated the spectators to the best finish of the day ... Berube surged shortly before the finish and opened a gap on Thompson ... but coming up the finishing stretch drive, Thompson began closing with every stride and passed Berube just before the finish-line.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Cooperstown ran extremely well at States last year to win Class D convincingly ... They appear to be the favorite again this year.

The next four teams are not that far behind Cooperstown and could make this interesting ... The computer simulation was very tight between Norwood-Norfolk, Franklinville, Oakfield-Alabama and North Warren ... Many runners are in the same performance ranges and big races by the #3, #4 and #5 runners from any team could be the deciding factor.

Individual Race ... Lee Berube (Ticonderoga, 5th last year) is the top rated Class D runner in the State (and the #4 rated runner overall in the State) ... But defending Class D champion Christian Thompson (Candor) is very close behind, and this could be another very good individual race ... Erik Van Ingen (Marathon) has been racing very well this season.

Girls Class AA - Saratoga & Hilton - TOO Close to Call - Again

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga             (02)      63        Fayetteville-Manlius   67
  2   Hilton               (05)      64        Hilton                 71
  3   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      90        Saratoga Springs       73
  4   Warwick              (09)     100        Carmel                107
  5   Carmel               (01)     113        Warwick Valley        113
  6   Bay Shore            (11)     131        Bay Shore             121
  7   West Seneca West     (06)     185        West Seneca West      178
  8   Ithaca               (04)     193        Ithaca                181
  9   Massapequa           (08)     218        Massapequa            213

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius came through with a big performance to upset Hilton and Saratoga ... FM has shown the ability to run at this level, but had not done so in recent races ... However, the good performance by FM was coupled with "less-than-best" team performances from both Hilton and Saratoga ... Hilton's top runners (Allison Sawyer and Caroline Schultz) ran stellar races, but normal #3 runner (Shelby Herman, who had not run in recent races due to a foot injury) was nearly a minute slower than normal (and limping noticeably after the race) ... Saratoga had gaps of 39 and 52 seconds between their #3 runner to their #4 and #5 runners respectively.

The rest of the race ran to form (but Warwick did not benefit from the home-course advantage).

Allison Sawyer (Hilton) ran a powerful race and won handily over Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) ... Callie Hogan (Bay Shore) finished strongly to catch Shelby Greany (Suffern).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Deja vu all over again ... Last year the computer simulation converged on a dead-heat between Saratoga and Hilton (Saratoga won by one point) ... The same scenario occurs again this year ... This year however, there seems to be more variability in some runner performances plus some additional runners (from other teams) that figure to inter-mix their finish positions between the Saratoga and Hilton runners ... Therefore, the outcome could be determined by how well runners from others teams perform in addition to the performance of the Saratoga and Hilton runners ... Shelby Herman (Hilton) did not race at either sectionals or Monroe Counties (she is returning from a foot injury); obviously her performance is one factor in the outcome ... This definitely one of the best races of the day.

FM, Warwick and Carmel are not far apart in the simulations ... Warwick is running on their home-course which might be an advantage ... Fayetteville-Manlius has a large variability in some speed rating performances; much of it caused by ratings from the Manhattan Invitational (of which I am not a fan) ... On best performance, Fayetteville-Manlius appears capable of running with Saratoga and Hilton, but their team performance from sectionals and the OHSL meet need to improve.

Individual Race ... Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) is a returning Footlocker Finalist and the top rated female runner in the State ... Shelby Greany (Suffern) is also a returning Footlocker Finalist and has been running very well ... This match-up looks like a "pick-em" and could be a terrific race - Greany may have an advantage since she has raced at Warwick.

Allison Sawyer has shown ability to run at a high level (she was 13th at Footlocker NE and 8th at NTN last year) as has team-mate Caroline Schultz (14th at Footlocker NE and 13th at NTN in 2005) ... Elizabeth McMahon (West Genesee) beat both Hilton runners at Manhattan.

Girls Class A - Burnt Hills solid favorite

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      48        Burnt Hills            34
  2   Horace Greeley       (01)      74        Horace Greeley         67
  3   Cornwall             (09)      99        Sayville              105
  4   Sayville             (11)     111        Cornwall              113
  5   Mepham               (08)     122        Pittsford Mendon      113
  6   Pittsford Mend       (05)     143        Mepham                136
  7   Elmira Southside     (04)     167        Elmira Southside      176
  8   Starpoint            (06)     197        Starpoint             181
  9   Mexico               (03)     204        Mexico                192

Post-Race Comments ... This race ran generally to form with Burnt Hills and Horace Greeley the top two teams ... Sayville ran well team-wise, especially since top runner Kristy Longman did not have her best race (although she staggered to the finish, it only added about 12 points to the team score which would have no difference in the overall team scoring).

Jillian King (Scotia-Glenville) led three other Section 2 runners to the finish-line (Caroline King (Scotia-Glenville), Meaghan Gregory (Burnt Hills) and Sam Roecker (Burnt Hills)).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Once again the Section 2 representative is a solid favorite (last year it was Holy Names) ... Burnt Hills is a deep and talented team.

Horace Greeley was consistently second in the computer simulations, but Cornwall shows potential to be second on best performance (they should be familiar with this Section 9 course).

Individual Race ... Jillian King (Scotia-Glenville) has popped some big recent races and enters this race as the favorite ... Kristy Longman (Sayville) is the defending State champion and an excellent all-around runner ... Following closely are Caroline King (Scotia-Glenville), Meaghan Gregory (Burnt Hills) and Sam Roecker (Burnt Hills).

Girls Class B - East Aurora favored to repeat

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      60        East Aurora            49
  2   Pearl River          (01)      95        Honeoye Falls Lima     62
  3   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      97        Pearl River           113
  4   Shoreham Wading Riv  (11)     101        Shoreham-Wading Riv   118
  5   Johnson City         (04)     121        Johnson City          125
  6   New Paltz            (09)     138        New Paltz             142
  7   North Shore          (08)     191        Westhill              195
  8   Cobleskill           (02)     193        North Shore           196
  9   Westhill             (03)     202        Cobleskill            219
  10  NE Clinton           (07)     243        Canton                220
  11  Canton               (10)     245        NE Clinton            256

Post-Race Comments ... East Aurora and Honeoye Falls-Lima always seem to run well at States, and this race was no exception ... Honeoye Falls-Lima ran better than predicted to make this a close contest.

Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls) showed why she is a returning Footlocker Finalist in winning handily ... Paige Mullins (Johnson City) and Catherine Lusardi (East Aurora) had a good contest for the second-position with Mullins finishing strongly to grab 2nd (both girls had season-best performances).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Last year, East Aurora ended the Honeoye Falls-Lima string of State titles that stretched back to 1998 ... last year it looked like a dead-heat between the two teams, but East Aurora seems to have a clear advantage this year.

Pearl River, Honeoye Falls-Lima and Shoreham Wading River appear evenly-matched for the second position ... the teams traded places in the computer simulations quite frequently with Pearl River gaining a slight advantage (but it looks like a toss-up).

Individual Race ... Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls, defending State champion) is the solid favorite to win the individual title (she is a returning Footlocker Finalist) ... But this race has some other very good runners that include Paige Mullins (a sensational season at Johnson City), freshman Brianna Welch (North Shore), Catherine Lusardi (East Aurora, who did not run in last year's race), and Natalie Busby (New Paltz, who is familiar with the Warwick course).

Girls Class C - Greenwich the favorite over Bronxville

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      25        Greenwich              29
  2   Bronxville           (01)      45        Bronxville             46
  3   Skaneateles          (03)     105        Skaneateles           124
  4   Rhinebeck            (09)     133        Rhinebeck             128
  5   Newark Valley        (04)     157        Newark Valley         143
  6   Saranac Lake         (07)     183        Attica                176
  7   Franklinville        (06)     187        Friends Acad          192
  8   Friends Acad         (08)     197        Franklinville         197
  9   Attica               (05)     234        Saranac Lake          198
  10  Potsdam              (10)     288        Mattituck             291
  11  Mattituck            (11)     315

Post-Race Comments ... This race ran pretty much to form with Greenwich winning handily and Bronxville easily second.

Caitlin Lane (Greenwich) won as easily as expected with Emily Fung (Greenwich) second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich gets the call over a good Bronxville team ... Greenwich has shown some inconsistencies, but they have decent team depth which should help in this race ... Bronxville has run most of the season without top runner Virginia Connor who would make this a much closer race.

Skaneateles ran very well at sectionals and a similar performance should be good enough for third place ... Rhinebeck could surprise as the home-section team.

Individual Race ... Caitlin Lane (Greenwich) is a strong favorite to win this race and is a returning Footlocker Finalist (she transferred from Saratoga to Greenwich last spring) ... Emily Fung (Greenwich) is the next top ranked Class C runner ... A number of runners are closely rated in vying for the 3rd position - they include Tori Flannery (Bronxville, 6th last year), Erin Cawley (Newark Valley, who finished 2nd last year), Emma Clarke (Bronxville), Brittney Lane (Greenwich) and Sofia Spring (Croton-Harmon, 5th last year).

Girls Class D - Thomas A. Edison favored to repeat

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Thomas A. Edison     (04)      46        Thomas A.Edison        62
  2   Duanesburg           (02)      84        LaFayette              69
  3   LaFayette            (03)      88        Duanesburg             98
  4   Geneseo              (05)     110        Geneseo               107
  5   Randolph             (06)     117        Randolph              111
  6   John A. Coleman      (09)     138        Seton Catholic        143
  7   Seton Catholic       (07)     138        Norwood-Norfolk       147
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     156        John A. Coleman       153
  9   Shelter Island       (11)     264        Shelter Island        273

Post-Race Comments ... LaFayette improved throughout the season and was able to win the Section 3 title ... LaFayette continued to improve and had their best team race at States, but defending champion Thomas A. Edison ran well enough to repeat as State titlist with the score much closer than expected ... Overall though, the race ran to form.

Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) defended her individual title with an excellent performance ... Wendy Pavlus (Tupper Lake) also ran very well in her second-place finish.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Thomas A. Edison (also known as Elmira Heights) won the Class D title last year and is a solid favorite to repeat again this year. They have gotten stronger throughout the season with improving performances ... one reason is the return of former top runner Caitlin Palmer who was side-lined with a hip injury for the entire indoor and outdoor track seasons (and was actually hurt during the latter stages of last year's XC season) ... sister Sarah Palmer has run well.

Duanesburg and LaFayette appear evenly matched for the runner-up spot.

Individual Race ... Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) is the defending Class D champion and the favorite to win in 2006 ... Wendy Pavlus (Tupper Lake) and Kelly Billingiere (Harpursville) have had excellent seasons (Pavlus was 5th in 2005 and 3rd in 2004) ... Gena Hartung (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) has come on nicely throughout the season.