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NTN Boys & Girls Team Score Projections for 2006:
| Purpose
... The purpose of these projections
is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed alone
... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners
will finish (that's impossible no matter how good the data) ... Many runners are so closely
rated that big swings in team scores (10, 20 or even 30 points) are
likely to occur ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams might
finish relative to each other. How the Projections were made ... These 2006 and 2005 NTN projections were done by a method similar to 2004 (see this link for an explanation) ... This year I evaluated a few extra races for each team (additional races beyond just their State Meet races). The projections do NOT have a high degree of precision (or statistical certainty) ... I believe the individual ratings are "in-the-right-ballpark", but that may not be good enough because many runners are rated very close to each other. Speed is only one factor and it can be inconsistent for some runners ... Some teams have not raced in several weeks ... Traveling and time-zone changes will affect some teams ... The conditions and weather of Portland Meadows will definitely have an effect ... The "festivities" of NTN may affect some teams ... So I actually expect some scores to be very different than the projections!!! Initial projections posted on Nov. 27, 2006 ... ACTUAL Scores & Comments posted Dec 2, 2006 |
NTN 2006 - BOYS Projected Team Scores Actual Scores
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1 Elmhurst (York) IL 167 Mid West Coatesville PA 126
2 Ferris WA 170 North West Royal CA 148
3 Royal CA 189 California Ferris WA 162
4 Mead WA 198 North West Jesuit CA 169
5 Coatesville PA 198 North East Mead WA 187
6 Trabuco Hills CA 203 California Shenendehowa NY 190
7 Willmar MN 205 Heartland Albuquerque NM 190
8 Shenendehowa NY 214 North East Potosi MO 191
9 Albuquerque NM 230 South West Trabuco Hills CA 203
10 Potosi MO 244 Heartland York IL 209
11 Jesuit CA 251 California (at-large) Southlake Carroll TX 249
12 Woodridge OH 283 Mid West The Woodlands TX 293
13 Los Alamos NM 285 South West Los Alamos NM 315
14 Midlothian VA 295 South East Midlothian VA 324
15 Southlake Carroll TX 311 South LaSalle Cinc OH 326
16 LaSalle Cinc OH 330 Mid West (at-large) Willmar MN 347
17 Danbury CT 339 North East (at-large) Woodridge OH 370
18 The Woodlands TX 344 South Danbury CT 395
19 Chapel Hill NC 353 South East Cheyenne Central WY 416
20 Cheyenne Central WY 353 South West (at-large) Chapel Hills NC 487
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Post-Race Comments ... Coatesville PA proves that traveling outside your State during the season is not necessary ... Coatesville had a great seven-man performance to win ... and the Northeast wins for the second consecutive year. Royal CA ran much better than last year ... a year's experience obviously helped ... Royal ran a smarter race in 2006 and it paid off. Jesuit CA ran better than projection for the second year in a row ... a strength team with speed can finish well at NTN as proven by Jesuit ... the NTN Selection Committee made the right choice. Ferris WA and Mead WA both ran close to projection ... Mead's 5th finisher was nearly a minute behind their 4th (have read where the "pile-up" hurt him). The Pile-Up ... the Web-cast re-played a large pile-up of runners in the early stages of the race ... I do not know for sure, but it appeared to happen roughly mid-pack (or latter mid-pack) ... the web-cast announcer compared it to a pile-up at the Tour de France ... Runners clearly went down and many did not get up quickly ... I have read where most of the York IL, Willmar MN and Danbury CT runners were adversely affected by the pile-up (as well as others) ... It certainly effected the overall outcome, but many teams still ran close to projection. York IL (the projected winner) finished a disappointing 10th ... If six of their seven runners actually fell in the pile-up (as has been reported on the Internet), then their finishing position is not very meaningful (I don't really know) ... But Coatesville and Royal ran very well, so I don't know if York could have beaten them in any case. Pre-Race Comments ... Predicting this type of national race is very difficult (some of the reasons are noted above) ... The first two years demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NTN ... Most runners will have speed ratings lower than the projected ratings listed below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc.) ... The incoming ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores. I was going to post two separate predictions, (1) the actual raw scores from the individual ratings below and (2) team scores modified using my own subjective judgment ... I decided against the second ... The team discussions below include some of my "subjective" judgments. One comment about team scores ... In this type of race, the winning team score will almost certainly be lower than any score listed above ... the winning team will probably run well relative to other teams, and a number of teams will simply have bad races (and those bad races will help lower the scores of the top teams). This race is close ... At least eight teams have a real shot to win the Boys' NTN Championship ... This race is incredibly sensitive to the performances of the #4 and #5 runners - That will likely be the over-riding factor in winning NTN 2006 ... and a bunch of teams are close enough.
Elmhurst (York) IL ... York gets a slight advantage in the team scores ... I believe they have the best team depth (top to bottom) ... York won in 2004 and finished 2nd last year ... They have NTN experience, and more importantly, they have proven ability at Portland Meadows ... Even if York wasn't the top rated team in the raw scores, York would be my subjective choice to win because they have proven themselves in the past. Ferris WA (Spokane XC Club) ... Ferris is clearly an outstanding team ... they are the top ranked team in the US (according to the Nike Super 25 Rankings) ... Ferris has two years of experience at NTN ... So what's not to like?? Well ......... Ferris entered NTN 2004 and 2005 as a top five team ... They didn't finish top five either time ... Both years Ferris was ranked above Mead - both years, Mead beat Ferris at NTN ... I know that happened in the past (this year could be different), but I need to see it happen ... My "subjective" list would have switch Ferris and Mead. Royal CA (Simi Valley XC Club) ... a very talented and fast team (both last year and this year) ... Unfortunately, the cold muddy conditions of Portland Meadows may not be conducive for Royal ... Royal is certainly capable of winning this race, but after last year's performance, "Would you be willing to bet the rent money on Royal against this field?". Mead WA ... Mead finished 3rd and 4th in 2004 and 2005 respectively ... they bettered their rankings and projections both years, so Mead has proven they can perform at Portland Meadows. Coatesville PA ... Coatesville had stellar performances throughout the season ... they tied with Mead in the raw score and are certainly within reach of winning ... A good finish by Coatesville will erase the memory of a different PA team that ran (sort of) in NTN 2004. Trabuco Hills CA (Hills XC Club) ... Close competitor of Royal (beat them at times) ... Certainly has the talent and speed to win, But will Trabuco Hills like the cold and mud of Portland Meadows?? Willmar MN ... Another talented team good enough to win with a top performance ... Last year, Willmar finished slightly lower than projection. Shenendehowa NY ... I see parallels to Saratoga 2005 ... For starters, Steve Murdock was (is) on both teams ... Steve Murdock qualified for Footlocker Finals last Saturday and is the top rated runner in this year's NTN (starting the team score with a one helps) ... Shenendehowa's #3, #4, and #5 runners have popped some big performances during the season ... if they can collectively duplicate those performances (just like Saratoga popped some big performances last year), Shenendehowa could find themselves on the victory stand. Potosi MO ... I am not terribly fond of caveats, but predicting the team score of Potosi requires some hedging ... The reason is their normal #1 runner Josh Thebeau ... According to some reports on the DyeStat forum, Thebeau has been sick ... Thebeau ran in the recent Footlocker MW race and finished 300th with a speed rating of 133 (his normal rating is 192); obviously that can wreck the team score ... He may be back to full strength at NTN (but I have no idea ... similar parallels to predicting Collegiate's team score at the NY Federation race with a key runner returning from injury) ... Statistically, Thebeau's 133 rating gets combined with other race results to yield a composite rating of 179 (a number in which I have absolutely NO confidence, but it is correct from a stat point-of-view) ... Assuming Thebeau returns to form for NTN, the projected Potosi team score drops by roughly 50 points, and that puts Potosi in contention to win. Cheyenne Central WY ... One aspect of predicting team scores is that somebody is predicted to finish last ... I don't enjoy that aspect of prediction ... NTN brings together good, talented competitive teams ... Anybody familiar with horseracing knows that in good competitive races, it is harder to predict who will finish last than it is to predict who will win (NTN is exactly the same) ... For starters, the team predicted to be last has nowhere to go but up ... and you know some teams above them will have crappy races (they always do) ... and there's an incentive not to be last.
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Where the Boys Team Scores came from ... (Ratings based on State Meet plus other available meets) Place Name Grade School Rating Score ----- ------------------ ----- ------------------ ------ ----- 13 Tom Achtien 11 Elmhurst (York) IL 190.0 167 20 Mike Fry 12 Elmhurst (York) IL 189.0 33 Steve Sulkin 10 Elmhurst (York) IL 185.5 47 Nick Kuczwara 12 Elmhurst (York) IL 182.0 54 Mark Sulkin 12 Elmhurst (York) IL 180.5 64 Alan D'Ambrogio 12 Elmhurst (York) IL 178.1 73 Tim Jung 12 Elmhurst (York) IL 176.0 7 Cameron Quackenbush 12 Ferris WA 192.0 170 13 David Hickerson 12 Ferris WA 190.0 18 Stephen Olsen 12 Ferris WA 189.7 53 Nick Laplante 12 Ferris WA 180.7 79 Pat Maloney 12 Ferris WA 175.3 91 Jeff Devlin 12 Ferris WA 172.3 122 Paul Hawkins 11 Ferris WA 163.3 2 Michael Cybulski 12 Royal CA 196.0 189 24 Hudson Andrews 12 Royal CA 187.0 37 Jun Reichl 12 Royal CA 184.0 56 Alex Routh 11 Royal CA 180.0 70 Danny Benson 12 Royal CA 177.0 126 Otto Cipolla 11 Royal CA 161.0 133 Travis Edwards 9 Royal CA 155.7 10 Dylan Hatcher 12 Mead WA 190.2 198 20 Kelly Lynch 11 Mead WA 189.0 22 Kelvin Daratha 12 Mead WA 188.3 69 Mario Abata 12 Mead WA 177.1 77 Ryan Bishop 12 Mead WA 175.5 102 Jordan Curnutt 10 Mead WA 169.1 132 Taylor Nepon 12 Mead WA 156.0 5 Kyle Dawson 12 Coatesville PA 194.2 198 35 Tom Panulla 12 Coatesville PA 184.8 40 Owen Dawson 12 Coatesville PA 183.9 50 Jason Leonard 12 Coatesville PA 181.1 68 Sean Ward 12 Coatesville PA 177.5 103 Andrew Mahoney 11 Coatesville PA 169.0 106 Chris Rosato 10 Coatesville PA 168.3 6 J.T. Sullivan 12 Trabuco Hills CA 193.6 203 13 Riley Sullivan 11 Trabuco Hills CA 190.0 42 Scott Blair 11 Trabuco Hills CA 183.1 45 Chris Mosier 12 Trabuco Hills CA 182.3 97 James Hendra 11 Trabuco Hills CA 170.1 127 Matt Mosier 10 Trabuco Hills CA 160.7 129 Nhu-Nguyen Le 11 Trabuco Hills CA 160.3 8 Kaafi Adeys 12 Willmar MN 191.1 205 30 Abdi Awale 12 Willmar MN 186.1 43 Mahad Hassan 10 Willmar MN 183.0 59 Mohamed Bedel 12 Willmar MN 179.0 65 Mustafa Yusuf 12 Willmar MN 178.0 115 Andrew Nicklawsky 11 Willmar MN 165.8 131 Scott Boros 12 Willmar MN 159.5 1 Steve Murdock 12 Shenendehowa NY 197.0 214 27 Zach Predmore 12 Shenendehowa NY 186.5 47 Adam Quinn 12 Shenendehowa NY 182.0 66 Mike Danaher 10 Shenendehowa NY 177.9 73 Zac Suriano 11 Shenendehowa NY 176.0 95 Tom Soeller 12 Shenendehowa NY 171.3 98 Mike Wilbur 12 Shenendehowa NY 170.0 3 Ben Johnson 11 Albuquerque NM 195.5 230 10 Dustin Martin 12 Albuquerque NM 190.2 41 Pat Zacharias 9 Albuquerque NM 183.5 87 Taylor Murray 10 Albuquerque NM 173.0 89 Kyle Cooper 11 Albuquerque NM 172.9 116 Demetrius Smith 11 Albuquerque NM 165.3 118 Damon Campbell 10 Albuquerque NM 164.6 9 Josh Mathis 12 Potosi MO 190.5 244 29 Jacob Swearingen 10 Potosi MO 186.2 59 Josh Thebeau 12 Potosi MO 179.0 *** 71 Nick Niggemann 10 Potosi MO 176.3 76 Daniel Forbes 12 Potosi MO 175.7 124 Evan Kelly 11 Potosi MO 163.1 139 Joe Skelton 11 Potosi MO 146.7 *** Josh Thebeau was reported sick for Footlocker South, so his rating here has been modified ...his typical rating is 192.5, so a typical race would lower the team score by roughly 50 points!!! 19 Evan Watchempino 12 Jesuit CA 189.3 251 28 Michael Salvatierra 12 Jesuit CA 186.3 36 Phil McKennan 12 Jesuit CA 184.7 63 Kyle Lackner 11 Jesuit CA 178.5 105 Emilio Garcia 10 Jesuit CA 168.7 112 Matt Palmer 12 Jesuit CA 166.3 122 Scott Donahue 12 Jesuit CA 163.3 12 Scott Hilditch 12 Woodridge OH 190.1 283 31 Brian Himelright 11 Woodridge OH 186.0 49 David Petrak 12 Woodridge OH 181.6 84 Joey McCoy 12 Woodridge OH 174.6 107 Daniel Petrak 12 Woodridge OH 168.2 120 Tony Marette 11 Woodridge OH 163.8 135 Matthew Weiss 11 Woodridge OH 153.6 32 Allen Pittman 11 Los Alamos NM 185.8 285 37 Gareth Gilna 10 Los Alamos NM 184.0 51 Nathan Romero 12 Los Alamos NM 181.0 56 Kyle Pittman 9 Los Alamos NM 180.0 109 Tom Bowidowicz 11 Los Alamos NM 168.0 110 Tom Witherell 11 Los Alamos NM 167.9 121 Steven Walter 11 Los Alamos NM 163.6 13 Jason Witt 11 Midlothian VA 190.0 295 54 Jonathan Mellis 12 Midlothian VA 180.5 61 Mark Merritt 11 Midlothian VA 178.9 81 Tommy Reese 12 Midlothian VA 175.0 86 Thomas Cole 11 Midlothian VA 173.7 98 Michael Hammond 11 Midlothian VA 170.0 140 Bray Wilkins 12 Midlothian VA 140.0 4 Colby Lowe 11 Southlake Carroll TX 195.1 311 26 C.J. Brown 10 Southlake Carroll TX 186.7 61 Chris Moore 12 Southlake Carroll TX 178.9 93 Richard Grue 12 Southlake Carroll TX 172.1 127 Evan Garner 10 Southlake Carroll TX 160.7 134 Kyle Ondrasek 11 Southlake Carroll TX 154.0 136 Ahmed Toure 10 Southlake Carroll TX 152.3 24 Jake Nusekabel 12 LaSalle Cinc OH 187.0 330 37 Kyle Lang 12 LaSalle Cinc OH 184.0 75 Ricky Lupp 12 LaSalle Cinc OH 175.8 83 Corey Spriggs 12 LaSalle Cinc OH 174.7 111 Michael Inderhees 10 LaSalle Cinc OH 167.7 114 Mitchell Huesman 12 LaSalle Cinc OH 166.0 130 Sean Comer 11 LaSalle Cinc OH 160.1 23 Matt Terry 11 Danbury CT 187.1 339 46 Willie Ahearn 11 Danbury CT 182.2 79 Justin Rau 11 Danbury CT 175.3 93 Joseph Bubniak 10 Danbury CT 172.1 98 Parker Bourdeau 11 Danbury CT 170.0 101 Brady Becker 12 Danbury CT 169.5 117 Ricky Balmeseda 11 Danbury CT 165.0 34 Alex Neff 12 The Woodlands TX 185.1 344 51 Evan Blair 12 The Woodlands TX 181.0 72 Bryan Downey 12 The Woodlands TX 176.2 91 Domminick Zucconi 12 The Woodlands TX 172.3 96 Connor Reed 10 The Woodlands TX 171.0 103 Quinn Valentine 11 The Woodlands TX 169.0 112 Drew Butler 10 The Woodlands TX 166.3 13 Taylor Gilland 10 Chapel Hill NC 190.0 353 67 Miles Rampel 12 Chapel Hill NC 177.7 81 Jack Marshall 12 Chapel Hill NC 175.0 85 Kent Pecora 12 Chapel Hill NC 173.9 107 Peter Anderson 11 Chapel Hill NC 168.2 119 Taylor Muir 12 Chapel Hill NC 164.1 137 Wes Sutter 9 Chapel Hill NC 150.8 43 Scott Foley 12 Cheyenne Central WY 183.0 353 56 Sean Wilde 12 Cheyenne Central WY 180.0 77 Josh Franke 11 Cheyenne Central WY 175.5 87 Laine Parish 11 Cheyenne Central WY 173.0 90 Devin Rathburn 10 Cheyenne Central WY 172.5 125 Matt Carey 12 Cheyenne Central WY 161.6 138 Eric Tollis 12 Cheyenne Central WY 148.0 |
NTN 2006 - GIRLS Projected Team Scores Actual Scores ======================================================= ============================== 1 Midlothian VA 160 South East Fayetteville-Manlius NY 128 2 Saugus CA 212 California Hilton NY 178 3 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 223 North East Southlake Carroll TX 187 4 Hilton NY 223 North East (at-large) Colts Neck NJ 200 5 Corona del Mar CA 226 California Yankton SD 202 6 Westfield IN 231 Mid West Corona del Mar CA 210 7 Hinsdale Cen IL 234 Mid West Westfield IN 210 8 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 234 South East Eleanor Roosevelt MD 243 9 Yankton SD 252 Heartland Eldorado NM 254 10 Carondelet CA 256 California (at-large) Midlothian VA 255 11 Iowa City IA 261 Heartland (at-large) Sioux Falls SD 264 12 Colts Neck NJ 270 North East Tatnall DE 268 13 West Valley AK 271 North West O'Connor AZ 272 14 O'Connor AZ 275 South West Billings Senior MT 291 15 Billings Senior MT 290 North West West Valley AK 303 16 Tatnall DE 290 South East (at-large) Carondelet CA 307 17 Eldorado NM 306 South West Hinsdale Central IL 307 18 Sioux Falls Roos SD 306 Heartland Saugus CA 324 19 Tupelo MS 316 South Iowa City IA 366 20 Southlake Carroll TX 324 South Tupelo MS 454 |
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Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius simply ran a sensational race that was well-planned and executed (experience at Portland Meadows helps). As usual, FM was led Mackenzie Carter (4th) and Kathyrn Buchan (5th), and their next four runners all finished in the top 50; that was more than enough to secure the victory .... Hilton ran a decent race (typical of their recent races) and that was good enough to finish 2nd (Allison Sawyer was 3rd and Caroline Schultz was 13th) ... Colts Neck NJ finished 4th with a very good performance ... winner Ashley Higginson and Briana Jackucewicz (11th) got the Colts Neck score off to a great start ... Having two top finishers at NTN is a big advantage in the team score ... The New York and Northeast continued their dominance in 2006. Midlothian VA (the pre-race favorite) finished 10th ... unfortunately, their #3 runner Mary Miller (sometimes #2) fractured her elbow in mid-race, but courageously finished 97th (#6 team finisher) ... It possibly cost Midlothian 50 or 60 points (so they may have finished top five), but they did not run well to win the race. Saugus CA (the top CA team entering NTN and projected to be 2nd) finished a disappointing 18th ... However, DyeStatCal.com reported that the Saugus girls were all sick with the flu as a group (and their "off" performance seems to confirm it). Southlake Carroll TX was the big surprise in finishing 3rd (the projection had them last) ... The projection was obviously bad, so "why was the projection off by so much??" ... In 2005, Southlake Carroll also finished 3rd at NTN (and they were projected to be 4th), but they graduated their top two runners who were Footlocker Finalists ... One problem in rating Texas girls is that Texas primarily runs 3200 meter XC races (including the Texas State championship) ... I don't trust my speed ratings for shorter races unless I see confirmation at longer distances ... Based on Southlake Carroll's speed ratings for the Texas State Meet at 3200 meters, they would have been projected to finish in the top ten at NTN ... However, Southlake Carroll competed in the Nike South Meet (Oct 7th at Woodlands TX, 5K distance) and finished 3rd with a team average time 31 seconds behind winning Kingwood TX ... I used that as a basis for the Southlake Carroll NTN projection, and it was obviously a bad choice on my part. Yankton SD finished 5th ... as I said in the pre-race comments, that's about where my "subjective" judgment would have placed them ... In any case, Yankton is a very good team that ran well despite the long time interval between their State meet (Oct 21st) and NTN ... Sioux Falls Roosevelt SD also ran better than projection (but that does not surprise me) ... These are cases where the statistical "raw" numbers do not do a good job, and subjective judgment is required (if you're betting money). Iowa City IA is an example of a very good "pack" team (tight compression) ... But when a pack has even a slighlty off-day at NTN, it kills the team score ... At NTN, I believe teams with top runners have a big advantage (the Northeast teams are a great example) ... But whether that factor should be considered in selecting NTN teams is another question. Pre-Race Comments ... As discussed in the Boy's Pre-Race Comments above, the team scores are the actual numbers generated from the overall speed ratings for each runner (see listing below) ... As noted below, I don't necessarily agree with the raw numbers. Midlothian has separated themselves from the field somewhat, BUT this race is remarkably close ... Throw in the cold muddy conditions of Portland Meadows and anything could happen. Midlothian VA ... Midlothian rose to national prominence when they won the Manhattan (Eastern States) Invitational over national powers Eleanor Roosevelt, Saratoga, Hilton and others ... Their speed ratings at Manhattan were excellent for all seven runners (definitely capable of winning NTN), but Manhattan is only a 2.5-mile race and typically ratings drop for many runners when they race the 5K championship distance ... However, Midlothian ratings for subsequent races at longer distances (such as VA States) remained strong from top to bottom (although slightly lower) ... Midlothian's projected margin of victory (which is larger than I originally thought) reflects, in part, their top to bottom team strength and proven ability to maintain performance in 5K races. That projected margin of victory makes Midlothian the definite favorite ... But in a race such as NTN, 50 points can evaporate quickly if any of the scoring runners have problems or the #4 and #5 runners from other contending teams have big races ... The top two Midlothian runners are usually freshmen twins Kathleen and Leia Lautzenheiser ... at the VA State Meet, Leia Lautzenheiser finished as the #6 Midlothian runner (after running up close to the pace and then being affected by warm weather conditions according to one newspaper article) ... I doubt overly "warm weather" will be a problem at Portland Meadows, but anything that causes a #2 runner to finish #6 at NTN could make a decisive difference in the winning score. Yankton SD ... I will discuss Yankton next because they are a good example of where speed ratings plus limited information can be misleading (or cause inaccurate projections) ... Based strictly on Yankton's speed ratings for for the South Dakota State Meet, Yankton would be very close to Midlothian (and 2nd in the projection) ... But I had problems in deriving composite (multi-race) ratings for Yankton ... first, I could find only 4K race results and the ONLY race with complete results was the SD State Meet (so I had only one ratable race) ... so I needed to use ratings from Footlocker Midwest. Six of the Yankton girls ran Footlocker Midwest with speed ratings of 144 (Betsy Bies), 125, 115, 107, 104 and 98 ... Their corresponding ratings at the SD State Meet were 150, 131, 126, 133, 132 and 106 ... That is a huge difference ... Combining these two races statistically (with a little help from other races without speed ratings) puts Yankton 9th in the projected team scores above ... I generally do not trust those kinds off composite ratings (but that's why Yankton in projected 9th) ... A somewhat similar problem arose last year (when results from a subsequent 5K race lowered Yankton's ratings) and Yankton was projected to finish 6th (and they finished 5th at NTN) ... Therefore, I believe Yankton could finish better than the 9th-place projection above (maybe as high as 4th or 5th). California Teams ... Saugus ... Corona del Mar (Newport XC Club) ... Carondelet (Concord XC Club) ... The numbers put all three California teams in the top ten ... But the big question is "How well will those numbers hold up under weather and footing conditions at Portland Meadows?" ... Last year Corona del Mar was projected to finish 3rd (and they finished 6th ... but Oak Park CA did slightly better than projected). Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... You can be certain that Coach Bill Aris will have the FM girls focused and ready for a big effort at NTN ... FM has shown improvement from the NY State Class Meet through the NY Federation Championships and have an excellent chance at finishing well at NTN ... Like most other teams, FM has shown some variability at the #3 - #5 positions - top performances by these runners give FM a legitimate shot at winning. Hilton NY ... The defending NTN Champion received one of the final two at-large bids ... Hilton finished 2nd to FM at both the NY State and Federation Meets ... Hilton's scoring potential was hampered at both meets by a foot injury to typical #3 runner Shelby Herman (last year Shelby Herman finished 19th at NTN) ... she did not run at Footlocker NE, and reportedly, her foot ailment has improved and her fitness level is returning ... IF this proves out in actual performance, Hilton becomes a serious threat to win NTN (even without any "off-races" by Midlothian runners) ... Allison Sawyer qualified for Footlocker Finals and Caroline Schultz missed by only one second (they finished 8th and 13th at NTN last year) ... Ashley Jones has yet to duplicate last year's top performances (she won the NTN award last year as the top #5 runner), but Portland Meadows was good to Ashley Jones last year and it might be again this year (sometimes the "horses-for-courses" theory has merit) ... If I were the other teams in this race, I would be watching the 1000 meter team splits very closely (because if Hilton is close or in front, "Look Out") ... One more interest parallel - Last year Hilton lost at Manhattan, lost at the NY State Meet and then won NTN. Westfield IN ... a very good team that may be better than the projection ... But are any of their runners opting out of NTN for basketball like last year? Hinsdale Central IL ... The Illinois representative last year (Napier North) exceeded projections by a lot. Eleanor Roosevelt MD (Greenbelt XC Club) ... I originally had Eleanor Roosevelt higher up in my ratings ... They finished 2nd to Midlothian at Manhattan (and ahead of Hilton and Saratoga) ... But two of their runners were suspended for several meets for team violations (including the MD State meet) ... All potential Eleanor Roosevelt runners competed at Footlocker NE, and I wasn't overly impressed by their results (their Footlocker NE ratings lowered both their composite ratings and projected team score). Colts Neck NJ ... I actually believe Colts Neck will do better than the projected 12th-place above ... I have a full season of Colts Neck speed ratings and the variability at the #3 through #5 positions is the reason the team score is somewhat lower than it might otherwise be ... Top performances at those positions quickly elevates Colts Neck to a contending position. West Valley Alaska (Fairbanks XC Club) ... One of their top runners (Crystal Pitney) is reportedly running at Footlocker West instead of NTN (so the score above reflects her absence) ... Even without her, West Valley AK is a good team ... with her, they could be in contention for a top three or four spot. Sioux Falls Roosevelt SD ... Sioux Falls' ratings from the South Dakota State Meet (4K race) would place them much higher than the 18th-place projection above ... But ratings from Footlocker MW and the Griak Invitational lower their team composites ... I won't be surprised if they do better. Southlake Carroll TX ... Repeating what I said above for the boys ... One aspect of predicting team scores is that somebody is predicted to finish last ... I don't enjoy that aspect of prediction ... NTN brings together good, talented competitive teams ... Anybody familiar with horseracing knows that in good competitive races, it is harder to predict who will finish last than it is to predict who will win (NTN is exactly the same) ... For starters, the team predicted to be last has nowhere to go but up ... and you know some teams above them will have crappy races (they always do) ... and there's an incentive not to be last.
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Where the Girl's Team Scores came from ... (Ratings based on State Meet plus other available meets) Place Name Grade School Rating Score ----- ------------------ ----- ------------------ ------ ----- 17 Kathleen Lautzenheiser 9 Midlothian VA 138.0 160 25 Leia Lautzenheiser 9 Midlothian VA 132.0 28 Mary Miller 11 Midlothian VA 131.0 38 Samantha Dow 11 Midlothian VA 127.1 52 Paige Johnston 10 Midlothian VA 123.5 82 Amy Witt 9 Midlothian VA 115.0 98 Christine Selander 11 Midlothian VA 111.0 6 Shannon Murakami 12 Saugus CA 145.2 212 25 Katie Dunn 11 Saugus CA 132.0 40 Amber Murakami 9 Saugus CA 126.0 60 Brianna Jauregui 10 Saugus CA 122.0 81 Keri Molt 10 Saugus CA 115.7 121 Toccoa Kahovec 11 Saugus CA 102.0 132 Michelle Bonja 11 Saugus CA 88.7 11 Mackenzie Carter 9 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 140.4 223 12 Kathryn Buchan 10 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 140.3 52 Jessica Hauser 12 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 123.5 73 Molly Malone 9 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 118.1 75 Courtney Chapman 8 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 117.5 87 Hillary Hooley 12 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 113.7 89 Catie Caputo 12 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 113.5 4 Allison Sawyer 12 Hilton NY 147.1 223 7 Caroline Schultz 12 Hilton NY 144.7 46 Shelby Herman 11 Hilton NY 124.5 69 Sarah Ritchie 10 Hilton NY 119.5 97 Ashley Jones 11 Hilton NY 112.0 115 Lindsay Crocetti 10 Hilton NY 105.7 137 Chelsea Abrams 10 Hilton NY 77.7 8 Sarah Cummings 12 Corona del Mar CA 143.5 226 21 Shelby Buckley 11 Corona del Mar CA 135.0 35 Allison Damon 11 Corona del Mar CA 127.7 76 Alison Gushue 11 Corona del Mar CA 117.3 86 Hilary May 12 Corona del Mar CA 114.0 91 Nicole Skykhous 12 Corona del Mar CA 113.3 110 Christie St. Geme 12 Corona del Mar CA 107.3 16 Maggie Bingham 11 Westfield IN 138.1 231 20 Kristina Krasich 12 Westfield IN 135.1 23 Kaitlyn Love 10 Westfield IN 133.1 63 Breanne Ehrman 11 Westfield IN 121.5 109 Dana Christie 9 Westfield IN 107.4 119 Brittany Rutledge 12 Westfield IN 103.3 122 Kimmy Robertson 12 Westfield IN 101.8 19 Elaine Kuckertz 10 Hinsdale Cen IL 136.0 234 36 Lauren Zumbach 10 Hinsdale Cen IL 127.3 39 Rosemary Hines 10 Hinsdale Cen IL 127.0 47 Gina Kapusta 12 Hinsdale Cen IL 124.3 93 Emily Cleary 11 Hinsdale Cen IL 112.7 95 Heather Stevens 10 Hinsdale Cen IL 112.3 125 Jennifer Laser 12 Hinsdale Cen IL 99.7 14 Marika Walker 12 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 140.1 234 24 Teshika Rivers 10 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 132.1 55 Dominique Lockhart 11 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 123.1 59 Jennifer Redman 12 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 122.5 82 Tyreka Arrington 10 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 115.0 131 Christian Hickson 10 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 92.0 135 Brittany View 11 Eleanor Roosevelt MD 85.0 3 Betsy Bies 12 Yankton SD 147.2 252 36 Emily Smith 12 Yankton SD 127.3 65 Tiffany Leader 12 Yankton SD 120.8 70 Mariah Hofer 9 Yankton SD 119.0 78 Kristin Sternhagen 11 Yankton SD 116.0 112 Megan Hilson 9 Yankton SD 107.2 118 Jade Steinberg 11 Yankton SD 103.6 15 Nicole Hood 9 Carondelet CA 138.5 256 33 Heather Cerney 9 Carondelet CA 128.7 49 Kellie Houser 10 Carondelet CA 124.0 58 Sara Aliotti 10 Carondelet CA 123.0 101 Erin Mulligan 11 Carondelet CA 110.0 113 Ashley Chavez 11 Carondelet CA 107.0 140 Nicole Rumore 10 Carondelet CA 71.0 40 Annie McKay 12 Iowa City IA 126.0 261 42 Brittany Dlhy 11 Iowa City IA 125.3 44 Samantha Sidwell 12 Iowa City IA 125.0 64 Kelsey Hart 10 Iowa City IA 120.9 71 Jessica Yagla 9 Iowa City IA 118.3 82 Cassie White 9 Iowa City IA 115.0 120 Emily Fagan 9 Iowa City IA 103.0 1 Ashley Higginson 12 Colts Neck NJ 153.5 270 9 Brianna Jackucewicz 10 Colts Neck NJ 141.0 66 Allison Donaghy 11 Colts Neck NJ 120.7 87 Allie Flott 10 Colts Neck NJ 113.7 107 Erin Donaghy 11 Colts Neck NJ 107.7 127 Morgan Clark 10 Colts Neck NJ 99.0 130 Kristen O'Dowd 12 Colts Neck NJ 93.0 30 Samantha Davis 12 West Valley AK 130.1 271 31 Maggie Callahan 12 West Valley AK 129.2 43 Kayla Teslow 10 West Valley AK 125.1 61 Becca Rorabaugh 12 West Valley AK 121.9 106 Marisa Rorabaugh 9 West Valley AK 108.4 134 Aurora Bowers 11 West Valley AK 85.6 138 Wendy Boger 10 West Valley AK 75.0 5 Lindsay Prescott 11 O'Connor AZ 146.3 275 33 Camille Olson 12 O'Connor AZ 128.7 47 Jade Riley 10 O'Connor AZ 124.3 62 Aleina Eisenhauer 12 O'Connor AZ 121.7 128 Kailey Rumbo 9 O'Connor AZ 95.1 133 Renee Peck 10 O'Connor AZ 88.6 139 Shannon Walsh 10 O'Connor AZ 71.2 22 Bridgette Hoenke 12 Billings Senior MT 133.9 290 29 Auriele Fain 11 Billings Senior MT 130.7 67 Alexa Aragon 9 Billings Senior MT 120.1 80 Cara Lehman 12 Billings Senior MT 115.8 92 Auralea Fain 9 Billings Senior MT 113.0 108 Libby Tollefson 12 Billings Senior MT 107.6 129 Phoebe Tollefson 12 Billings Senior MT 94.5 10 Juliet Bottorff 10 Tatnall DE 140.5 290 49 Jenna McCartan 12 Tatnall DE 124.0 55 Joanie Castagno 12 Tatnall DE 123.1 78 Katie Kershner 11 Tatnall DE 116.0 98 Molly Parsons 9 Tatnall DE 111.0 114 Annie Castagno 12 Tatnall DE 106.0 124 Kallie Fehr 9 Tatnall DE 100.0 18 Rachel Velarde 11 Eldorado NM 137.7 306 45 Allison Bedonie 10 Eldorado NM 124.6 68 Kristy Hannah 9 Eldorado NM 119.8 72 Julie Brasher 10 Eldorado NM 118.2 103 Erin Madden 11 Eldorado NM 109.9 104 Laynee Valverde 10 Eldorado NM 109.3 123 Faviola Valdez 10 Eldorado NM 100.1 2 Allison Eckert 12 Sioux Falls Roos SD 147.5 306 25 Krista Eckert 12 Sioux Falls Roos SD 132.0 85 Bailey Breems 9 Sioux Falls Roos SD 114.1 94 Erin Hargens 10 Sioux Falls Roos SD 112.5 100 Caitlyn Crowley 11 Sioux Falls Roos SD 110.5 116 Seanna Kautz 9 Sioux Falls Roos SD 105.4 126 Laura Bauer 10 Sioux Falls Roos SD 99.5 32 Katherine Steinman 8 Tupelo MS 128.9 316 54 Maggie McFerrin 10 Tupelo MS 123.2 55 Emily Crow 12 Tupelo MS 123.1 74 Claire Corban 12 Tupelo MS 118.0 101 Jana Mason 12 Tupelo MS 110.0 117 Cathherine Holman 8 Tupelo MS 104.3 136 Maria Holland 10 Tupelo MS 82.0 13 Tara Upshaw 10 Southlake Carroll TX 140.2 324 49 Christina Ferber 12 Southlake Carroll TX 124.0 77 Taylor Stephens 11 Southlake Carroll TX 117.1 89 Kirsten Brown 12 Southlake Carroll TX 113.5 96 Emily Denny 12 Southlake Carroll TX 112.2 105 Caitlin Gilbert 10 Southlake Carroll TX 109.2 110 Hannah Brown 9 Southlake Carroll TX 107.3 |