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| A Pre-Season Look at Saratoga Girls vs. Hilton Girls ... (Can Anybody Beat Saratoga??) |
Comparing Saratoga to any other girl's team would be a waste of time if Nicole Blood and Caitlin Lane were still competing for Saratoga (Saratoga would be "much-the-best" team in the nation) ... I am assuming Blood and Lane are not part of the team.
How good is Saratoga without Nicole Blood and Caitlin Lane ?? ... Very Very Good ... And to save the suspense of my opinion - I still believe Saratoga is the best team in the nation and the pre-season favorite to win the Nike Team Nationals again ... I know others disagree, but I will give some reasons throughout this examination.
Can any NY team beat Saratoga ?? ... I know this sounds contradictory to the opinion above, but the answer is YES (or more precisely, Maybe) ... Knowing what I know right now, the team with the best chance is Hilton ... and they could be a team capable of seriously challenging Saratoga in head-to-head NY races.
Pre-Season Considerations ... Pre-season team ranking is an "educated guessing game" at best ... Over the years, I have spent a great deal of time and effort evaluating statistical relationships that correlate track times and XC times (I have very comprehensive high school databases in this regard) - Interestingly, the correlations are NOT that good - there is way too much uncertainty involved to apply a statistical pre-season ranking using track times alone ... In general, runners who run faster in track may run faster in XC as well, but there are many exceptions ... Track times are a useful tool in XC evaluation, but actual XC performances are a much better measurement of XC ability ... I've lost track of the number of high school runners who have told me "I really like XC, but hate track" (or vice versa), and their performances prove it (and mess up statistical correlations).
New team runners ... This affects girls more than guys ... Over many years, I have collected statistics relating "top runners" (such as a top ten finish in a sectional championship race) with their grade level ... With the girls, nearly one-fourth of all "top runners" are 7th, 8th or 9th-graders who did not run varsity XC the previous year ... This statistic has a HUGE impact on team performance and capability ... Good teams can become great teams with the addition of one or two "top runners" ... Similar type of occurrence - suppose Saratoga gets back either Caitlin Lane or Nicole Blood (or another transfer).
| Introducing the Real HILTON Girls ... (No - not Paris and Nicky) | ||
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| Amanda Griggs (front, left) ... Allison Sawyer (front, right) ... Shelby Herman (left, behind Griggs) | Ashley Jones | Caroline Schultz |
| NY Federation Team Results
from Last Year (2004): The Saratoga & Hilton results are placed side-by-side ... Saratoga loses three runners (Blood, Lane and Delay ... and Karyn Delay was an outstanding high school runner - the best #5 runner ever) ... Hilton loses one runner (Laura Iafrati) ... Notable is the absence of top runner Amanda Griggs in the Hilton results (she was injured and unable to compete ... she tried competing in the State Class Meet, but the injury prevented her from scoring). |
1. 22 Saratoga (18:12.4) 5. 151 Hilton (19:37.5) ============================================= ============================================= 1 1 Nicole Blood JR 17:27.3 1 14 Allison Sawyer SO 19:09.1 2 3 Hannah Davidson FR 17:58.4 2 17 Shelby Herman FR 19:13.3 3 5 Lindsey Ferguson JR 18:21.3 3 18 Ashley Jones FR 19:15.0 4 6 Caitlin Lane FR 18:36.7 4 45 Laura Iafrati SR 20:10.6 5 7 Karyn Delay SR 18:38.3 5 57 Caroline Schultz SO 20:19.4 6 ( 26) Ashley Campbell JR 19:39.8 6 (134) Veronica Griffiths SR 21:57.4 7 ( 47) Alysha McElroy SO 20:11.7 7 (164) Caileen Childs JR 23:16.0 2. 142 Shenendehowa (19:38.9) 8. 234 Suffern (20:04.1) ============================================= ============================================= 1 19 Jackie Gniewek JR 19:15.7 1 9 Shelby Greany 8 18:57.8 2 20 Libby Babcock SR 19:25.5 2 25 Kara McKenna JR 19:37.6 3 29 Tricia Wardwell SO 19:45.4 3 44 Mary Rose Consiglio JR 20:09.8 4 35 Sarah Rogers SR 19:50.7 4 77 Catie Lindberg SR 20:46.3 5 39 Cara Janeczko 7 19:57.0 5 79 Jessie Mitchell SO 20:48.9 6 ( 72) Christine Sloat SO 20:44.7 6 ( 81) Meghan Coffey SO 20:50.3 7 (101) Chelsea Babcock SO 21:09.7 7 (100) Julie Vilord SR 21:08.5 3. 145 Bethlehem (19:34.9) 4. 148 Bay Shore (19:29.1) ============================================= ============================================= 1 12 Roxanne Wegman SR 19:05.0 1 4 Laura Cummings SR 18:14.5 2 13 Emily Malinowski SR 19:08.4 2 15 Lauren Schmidt JR 19:09.2 3 16 Kristin Kenney FR 19:09.7 3 36 Callie Hogan SO 19:51.6 4 51 Kristin Peck FR 20:14.1 4 37 Mary Liz McCurdy SR 19:51.6 5 53 Claire Luke JR 20:17.0 5 56 Pam O'Sullivan SR 20:18.6 6 ( 74) Megan Gallagher JR 20:45.8 6 ( 70) Sarah McCurdy FR 20:44.4 7 (111) Taylor Jackson SR 21:21.4 7 ( 83) Caitlin Knapp SO 20:57.8 |
Normally, I do not make quantitative assessments during pre-season because there is too much speculation involved ... but I need to perform some sort of quantitative assessment to determine if Hilton (or any other team) has a legitimate chance to challenge Saratoga ... Before I speculate, I need to summarize some abilities of both teams and individuals ... It's important to separate fact from educated guess from pure speculation.
| Saratoga Saratoga still has something only one other girl's team in the nation can claim ... they have two Footlocker Finalists (Hannah Davidson and Lindsey Ferguson) (Southlake Texas also has two, but Davidson and Ferguson are clearly better) ... Having elite runners at this level is a HUGE scoring advantage in races with many good teams and runners, especially a race like NTN ... So it's not much of a speculation to assume that Saratoga will go one-two against Hilton. Saratoga's remaining team strength is part fact and part educated guess ... But let me say this upfront - If somebody tries to guess Saratoga's abilities based on the performances of their #6 and #7 runners at Federations and NTN, they will badly under-estimate Saratoga's abilities ... these were sub-average performances which is easily verified by looking at additional race results. Over the past years, Saratoga has consistently had a group of runners (just behind the top two or three runners) capable of running at a certain level - that group typically includes four to eight runners ... With Saratoga's incredible top five runners last year, the "group" was somewhat hidden, but included returning runners like Alysha McElroy, Ashley Campbell, and Cameron Vahanian ... For comparison, the level of ability of this group is usually on the order of a 25th to 45th place finish at NTN in 2004 - Saratoga's #6 and #7 at NTN were 55th and 74th, but as noted earlier, these were off-races for both runners compared to other races they ran in 2004. Ashley Campbell ran 18:17 at the Silks & Satins 5K (July 30, 2005) - Lindsey Ferguson ran 17:29, so the time difference between Ferguson and Campbell easily places Campbell in the upper level of the "group" ... Only 7 seconds behind Campbell was a Saratoga Springs runner named Kipling Hill - I have heard speculation that Kipling Hill is a runner from Sacred Heart Academy in Kentucky (State Class XC champion team) that is transferring to Saratoga - I did a quick evaluation of her performances in KY, and indeed, she fits perfectly into the Saratoga "group" ... So I expect we'll see the Saratoga "group" again this year (and maybe more numerous than ever). Hannah Davidson ... based on summer road race results, Davidson is running better than ever ... on July 30, she was the top female finisher at the Silks & Satins 5K - her time (16:58) was nearly a minute faster than last year (17:56) ... on July 9, she won the Fort Edward Heritage Run in 17:10 (she ran 18:06 last year) ... There were some very good male runners in the Silks & Satins 5K - and the time difference between the male runners and Davidson indicate Davidson is running very fast (approaching Aislinn Ryan type performances from last year). After the Silks & Satins 5K, Hannah Davidson is quoted in the Glens Falls Post-Star newspaper, "Last year, we weren't working as hard at this point in the summer. People are starting to pick it up a lot more. Everyone's running a lot better than last year." ... Coach Art Kranick is quoted, "They're running better. They're performing better. Everyone ran PRs today, which is great."
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| Hilton Hilton placed three runners in the top 20 team finishers at Federations last year ... Other than Saratoga, the only other team to do that was Bethlehem (and they were invited to NTN) ... And although it's an educated guess, I'm reasonably confident that a healthy Amanda Griggs could have been Hilton's top finisher (chopping 40+ points from their team score). Here's a few interesting tidbits about the Hilton girls ... Last year, Caroline Schultz and Allison Sawyer did not start running until the end of the summer ... This year, the team is training all summer knowing this is their big chance to do something special as a team (like get an invitation to NTN) ... and I am told they are training very well indeed. One concept of comparing track times to possible XC performances is the following ... compare track times from 2003-2004 to recent track times (2004-2005) - Note the XC performances in-between (2004) ... If the track times improved, then an improvement in XC is possible (or XC performances are at least likely remain at the same level as 2004) ... With respect to the five Hilton runners, all five set PRs in every track event they ran (and some were significant PRs) ... examples: Amanda Griggs ... lowered 3000 PR (10:32 to 10:13) ... lowered 1500 PR (4:59 to 4:44) Allison Sawyer ... lowered Steeplechase PR (7:32 to 7:13) ... lowered 1500 PR (5:08 to 4:55) Shelby Herman ... lowered 3000 PR (10:49 to 10:30) ... lowered 1500 PR (4:57 to 4:47) Ashley Jones ... lowered 3000 PR (11:00 to 10:54) Caroline Schultz ... I have no record of her running track in 2003-2004 (and didn't find any) ... Looking above at the Hilton team scoring at NY XC Federations, she finished 57th - this would obviously be a concern in any attempt at beating Saratoga this season ... However, Caroline Schultz ran some impressive times during track this year ... Her 3000 PR is 10:30 - she finished 10th overall at Indoor State Championships at the Carrier Dome (10:32.42), but won the unseeded race by 26 seconds ... So I believe it is very conceivable that Caroline Schultz will show some significant improvement this coming XC season.
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| Idle Speculation .... |
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A wildly speculated Federation team score is shown
below ... Assume Hannah Davidson and Lindsey Ferguson finish
two-three in the team scoring (behind Aislinn Ryan) ... Assume
the top three Hilton runners from last year's Federation finish
approximately the same ... Assume Amanda Griggs finishes slightly
ahead of those three Hilton runners ... Assume Caroline Schultz
finishes relatively close to the other Hilton runners ... Assume
the Saratoga "Group" runners have typical Saratoga performances based on
individuals from last year (and previous years). I know ... lots of assumptions ... Remember - the exercise is to see what it might take to beat Saratoga (or get close enough to make it interesting) ... I am NOT trying to predict the actual results in pre-season because that's impossible. With Davidson-Ferguson running one-two on Hilton (and every other NY team), it becomes clear that Hilton MUST pack their runners in between Davidson-Ferguson and the other three Saratoga runners ... So I helped it out somewhat below - I assumed four Hilton runners would finish before the third Saratoga runner and that all five Hilton runners would finish before the fifth Saratoga runner - I have no idea if this is accurate, but seems within the realm of possibility based on the abilities of the Hilton runners ... of course, it's also within the realm of possibility that Saratoga will have a really good third runner. Bottom Line ... Hilton has the ability to put five runners in the top 25 team scorers at Federations (or perhaps better) ... Without Blood and Lane, that alone gives Hilton an opportunity to make the score relatively close ... However, Saratoga's advantage of having a one-two finish is really significant ... In races like NTN it is even more significant - For example, if Davidson-Ferguson finish NTN same as last year and the "group" runners perform similar as my expectations, then Saratoga would have a team score virtually identical to Smoky Hills (who finished 2nd at NTN with three Footlocker finalist on their team), and I don't know of any current team in the US capable of beating that score! |
74 Saratoga ======================================= 2 Hannah Davidson 10 17:45 3 Lindsey Ferguson 12 18:00 19 Group Runner -- 19:04 23 Group Runner -- 19:11 27 Group Runner -- 19:22 78 Hilton ======================================= 8 Amanda Griggs 12 18:45 13 Allison Sawyer 11 18:56 17 Shelby Herman 10 19:00 18 Ashley Jones 10 19:00 22 Caroline Schultz 11 19:10 |
| More Idle Speculation .... |
| The
above score looked at the Federation Meet ... What About the State
Class Meet ?? - The NY State Class AA Meet theoretically has
11 teams and 55 individual runners ... However, two of the 11 sections
in NY do not have Class AA teams - therefore, the Class AA race will
include a maximum of 63 team runners (and individuals do not count in
team scoring) ... Not wanting to disparage anybody, but those are not
the nine best Class AA teams in NY State (Section 2 can send only one
team (usually Saratoga), and teams like Bethlehem, Shenendehowa, and
Columbia stay home) ... The effect of a small number of total runners
and only a few competitive teams results in closer team scores - in
addition, the advantage of the Davidson-Ferguson finish is diminished
due to the fewer number of runners in the race. Therefore, Saratoga could be at their biggest risk of losing to an excellent pack-team (like Hilton) at the State Class Meet ... I know this sounds really strange ... But Saratoga could lose the State Class AA Championship and then win Nike Team Nationals ... I have great respect for Hilton, but I really need to see Saratoga lose before I believe it. Hilton may be facing Saratoga head-to-head before the NY State Meet ... Hilton is expected to compete at both the Queensbury Invitational (Sept 24th) and Manhattan Invitational (Oct 8th) ... For some reason, all the "experts" and NTN selectors love the Manhattan Invitational ... Personally, I would like the Manhattan Invitational if they raced a real cross country distance of 3.1 miles (5K), but they don't - they race 2.5 miles (4K), and that extra 1000 meters really does make a difference for many runners ... and it makes some teams look much better than might otherwise happen.
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| Some Other NY Girls Teams .... |
| Bronxville Coach Jim Mitchell is excited about this year's prospects (with good reason) ... This may be Bronxville's best team ever (and they had a very good team a few years ago with Michelle Rorke, Catha Mullin and Caroline Mullin) ... Bronxville is the defending State Class C Champion - their entire State team returns plus they have some new and improved runners that could really strengthen the team. Amanda Hudson (Senior) - 800m (2:14), 1500m
(4:35), 3000m (10:27)
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| Suffern Suffern has two elite runners in Kara McKenna and Shelby Greany (a great way to start off a team): Kara McKenna (Senior) - 800m (2:11.7),
1500m (4:36), 1 Mile (4:59), 3000m (10:06), 2000mSt (6:46) Plus, Suffern has a contingent of fast 800
meter runners ... but I don't know anything about their XC abilities. |