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|NYSPHSAA State Meet 2005 - Predictions|
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 7, 2005 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... ACTUAL Scores posted November 13, 2005|
|Boys Class AA - Fayetteville-Manlius over Saratoga (but not by much)|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 38 Saratoga 39 2 Saratoga (02) 49 Fayetteville-Manlius 43 3 Warwick Valley (09) 85 Warwick Valley 70 4 Smithtown (11) 139 Smithtown 143 5 Penfield (05) 148 Penfield 148 6 Syosset (08) 156 Arlington 162 7 Ithaca (04) 161 Syosset 166 8 Arlington (01) 167 Ithaca 168 9 Williamsville North (06) 188 Williamsville North 200
Post-Race Comments ... Saratoga won with a super team effort - four of their five team scorers ran seasonal best ratings (Steve Murdock did not have his best rating, but it didn't matter because he was the #1 team scorer in the entire race) ... Saratoga took full advantage of their racing experience on the Queensbury course ... and more importantly, Saratoga has been improving steadily since mid-season to reach this point of being one of the top teams in the nation (a team capable of challenging for the national championship if they maintain this current level).
Fayetteville-Manlius ran decently ... Kimple, Gruenewald and Heron ran very solid races ... McCann and Fitzgibbons ran similar to recent race results ... Even if McCann ran at the same rating-level as his Manhattan Invite race, FM would have lost by one point ... That says a lot about the performance of Saratoga.
Warwick Valley posted some real good performances to finish third in both the Class AA race and merged results (merged results - Saratoga-46, FM-51, Warwick-100).
The Federation race (Nov 19, 2005) will be an interesting test for both Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius.
Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) out-kicked Steve Murdock (Saratoga) to win in final 10 meters of the race ... Murdock had a decent lead, but Rhodes-Devey saw Murdock looking back (which he rarely does), and Rhodes-Devey went all-out to catch him (and just did) ... the course announcer reported the one-mile time as 4:30
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius (FM) is the #1 ranked team in the nation ... Saratoga is currently ranked 12th in the nation and Warwick is ranked 21st ... In the Northeast NTN rankings, FM (#1), Saratoga (#4), and Warwick (#6) - other NTN ranked NY teams include Liverpool (#5) and Shenendehowa (#10), but they did not qualify to compete in the NY State Class Championships (although both will likely compete in the NY Federation Championships the following week).
This is the first race of day ... Race time is an early 8:45am ... What a way to start ... Throughout these predictions (all classes), I will mention computer simulated races ... As a brief explanation of computer simulated races, I use the seasonal speed ratings for every runner in a race and derive a profile (a range distribution that the runner has been running with emphasis on recent races) ... to simulate a race, the computer randomly selects any point on each runner's profile range (using a random number generator) and compiles the results for that race ... since there are many possible random outcomes, the simulation runs hundreds of thousands of random races and saves the results ... when complete, the total simulation shows the percentage of races won by any team and an average outcome with team scores ... the overall simulation includes individual race results where any team has great performances, average performances and poor performances ... In general, the average team scores are close to scores predicted using the overall speed ratings from the individual rankings - but simulations give a sense of variability and possibilities.
There are different types of variability ... for example, FM has shown three different front-runners this season ... in addition, the FM runner profiles show some ups and downs (#5 runner Luke Fitzgibbons has been the most consistent runner thus far) ... The variability may be due to the FM training cycle, but that's an interpretation based on judgment, and it is different than a plain speed rating ... A speed rating is just a number describing how fast somebody ran compared to other runners (past tense) - it does not tell you how fast somebody will run the future (that requires an interpretation).
Saratoga has shown good overall team improvement from early season to current day ... The question I examined most closely was "Running at their current form, how well does Saratoga compare to FM??" ... Combining that scenario with FM's variability, Saratoga wins a small percentage of race simulations - and yes, it is skewed in Saratoga's favor, but it does show that Saratoga has a statistical change of winning (Saratoga must run extremely well and FM must not) ... not surprising, the performance of the number #4 and #5 runners is really important.
Warwick Valley is a very good team ... but Warwick needs career-days from all five scorers to have a chance against FM and Saratoga.
The Bottom-Line: ... FM is the
definite favorite - if FM runs well team-wise, they could win
by a bit more than the predicted score above.
|Boys Class A - Queensbury handily|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Queensbury (02) 26 Queensbury 34 2 Brighton (05) 91 Somers 69 3 Somers (01) 92 Brighton 80 4 Lynbrook (08) 107 Starpoint 120 5 Starpoint (06) 141 Cornwall 144 6 Cornwall (09) 147 Lynbrook 158 7 Sayville (11) 155 Elmira Southside 159 8 Whitesboro (03) 193 Sayville 168 9 Elimra Southside (04) 204 Whitesboro 197 10 Massena (10) 323
Post-Race Comments ... Queensbury won handily as expected ... Somers ran well team-wise to finish second ... The anticipated individual match-up between Alex Bean (Somers) and Charles White (Garden City) was as close as expected ... White closed strongly on the leading Bean over the final 400 meters to win.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Queensbury is the overwhelming favorite in the most lop-sided
boy's race of the day (not to mention Queensbury is running on their
home course) ... The runner-up spot looks like a toss-up between Brighton
and Somers, with Lynbrook not far behind.
|Boys Class B - Westhill & Pearl River|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Westhill (03) 72 Pearl River 67 2 Pearl River (01) 79 Westhill 79 3 Honeoye Falls-Lima (05) 99 Shoreham Wading Riv 94 4 East Aurora (06) 123 Honeoye Falls-Lima 96 5 Shoreham Wading Riv (11) 135 Onteroa 109 6 Onteora (09) 140 East Aurora 137 7 Maine-Endwell (04) 146 Maine Endwell 141 8 Saranac Lake (07) 213 Canton 231 9 Canton (10) 238 Saranac Lake 248 10 Ichabod Crane (02) 238 Manhasset 254 11 Manhasset (08) 261 Ichabod Crane 273
Post-Race Comments ... Pearl River ran well (including the #4 and #5 runners) to win ... Westhill had a 1:09 gap between their #3 and #4 runners, and that was too much to overcome ... Shoreham Wading River ran well to finish 3rd.
Noel Bateman (Aquinas, 15:45) beat Dan Busby (New Paltz, 15:52.9) for the individual title.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill
is the slight favorite - they win the majority of computer simulations ...
BUT this race is very sensitive to the performance of the #4 and #5
runners because there are many runners (from all teams) in that
performance range ... Pearl River wins a decent number of
simulations when getting top performances from their #4 and #5 runners ... Westhill's
advantage is their top three runners who figure to place high.
|Boys Class C - Fonda-Fultonville|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fonda Fultonville (02) 59 Fonda-Fultonville 55 2 Canastota (03) 72 Canastota 67 3 Pawling (01) 81 Pawling 77 4 Byron-Bergen (05) 83 Byron Bergen 100 5 Newark Valley (04) 117 Sullivan West 109 6 Sullivan West (09) 131 Newark Valley 119 7 Southwestern (06) 142 Southwestern 192 8 Wheatley (08) 229 Gouverneur 212 9 Gouverneur (10) 237 Wheatley 214 10 Babylon (11) 290 Babylon 272
Post-Race Comments ... This race went reasonably close to prediction ... Fonda-Fultonville's top three scorers ran strongly ... Canastota's pack (#2 - #5) finished before Fonda's #4, but it wasn't enough for Canastota.
Dan Prahl (Potsdam, 15:42) out-finished defending championship Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey, 15:48) for the individual title.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This race has some inconsistent performances amongst the
top teams ... Fonda wins the majority of simulations and they
have raced well over the Queensbury course, so they are the clear
favorite to win ... Canastota continues to improve - they ran a
tight four-pack (runners #2 - #5) to beat Tully at sectionals - with
top performances, Canastota is within striking distance to win
... Pawling has not been running as well in late season
compared to early season - but with top performances, Pawling
is also capable of winning ... Byron-Bergen is not far behind.
|Boys Class D - Ticonderoga & Cooperstown - TOO Close to Call|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Ticonderoga (07) 61 Cooperstown 47 2 Cooperstown (03) 61 Ticonderoga 79 3 Lake George (02) 99 Oakfield-Alabama 96 4 Delhi (04) 114 Delhi 97 5 Oakfield-Alabama (05) 114 Port Jefferson 112 6 Port Jefferson (11) 128 Lake George 115 7 Tupper Lake (10) 141 Tupper Lake 153 8 Franklinville (06) 189 Franklinville 229 9 Millbrook (09) 224 Keio Academy 242 10 Keio (01) 300 Millbrook 296
Post-Race Comments ... Another excellent overall team performance by Cooperstown to win ... The 1:24 gap between Ticonderoga's #3 and #4 runners was too much to overcome.
Christian Thompson (Candor, 15:45) finished strongly to retain his State individual title over Joshua Edmonds (Cooperstown, 15:48).
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This race is a true pick-em ... And it's an interesting race from a
computer simulation point-of-view because it is VERY sensitive to
placement of runners from other teams ... Ticonderoga has three
runners that figure to place in the top four finishers of all team
runners, then there is big gap back to their next two scorers ... Cooperstown
could fill that gap making this a tight race ... it not only depends
on the placement of the Ticonderoga and Cooperstown
runners, but where runners from other teams finish in relation to them
(and that varies significantly in computer simulations).
|Girls Class AA - Saratoga & Hilton - TOO Close to Call|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Saratoga (02) 47 Saratoga 46 2 Hilton (05) 47 Hilton 47 3 Suffern (01) 78 Warwick 87 4 Warwick (09) 106 Suffern 92 5 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 109 Ward Melville 117 6 Ward Melville (11) 121 Fayetteville-Manlius 132 7 Clarence (06) 200 Clarence 187 8 East Meadow (08) 203 East Meadow 203 9 Horseheads (04) 236 Horseheads 239
Post-Race Comments ... OK - I missed the Saratoga - Hilton score by one point ... But the score came about differently than expected - Caroline Schultz (Hilton) and Allison Sawyer (Hilton) ran their best races ever to finish 7th and 8th overall ... Hilton's normal top runner (Amanda Griggs, hampered by a sore shin) finished 11th overall - Grigg's time was roughly 30 to 36 seconds slower than she has been running ... Hilton's other two scorers (Shelby Herman and Ashley Jones) both ran seasonal best ratings ... So overall, Hilton ran very well.
Saratoga came through with their best team performance of the year ... Hannah Davidson and Lindsey Ferguson equaled or exceeded their best ratings of the year to finish 2nd and 3rd ... 8th-grader Cassie Goutos continues to improve and again ran her best rating ever ... Kaitlin O'Sullivan ran her best race of the year and Ashley Campbell continued to run well.
To sum it up - Two of the best teams in nation competed head-to-head and both teams performed well ... Hilton will not be competing at Federations (it will give Amanda Griggs a chance to recuperate before NTN).
Warwick (all seven runners) ran very well to finish third.
Aislinn Ryan (Warwick) won the individual title handily (although she did glance back in the stretch-run to see how close the competition was getting ... and they (Davidson and Ferguson) were not that far behind).
Pre-Race Analysis ... At this point in time, the match-up between Hilton and Saratoga is too close to call ... Before sectionals, I had Hilton slightly in front of Saratoga, but Saratoga ran very well at sectionals (on the Queensbury course), and now the race is a pick-em ... EVERY runner counts ... Based on seasonal performances, Hilton wins a higher percentage of computer simulated races, but Saratoga is competing in their home section with something to prove ... This is a great match-up between two of the best teams in the nation ... It can go either way.
Suffern is an outstanding team
... but #3 runner (Christy Goldman) sat out sectionals for the third
straight week due to an ankle injury ... If Goldman can not run (or
has an off-race), then the Suffern score above may be too high.
|Girls Class A - Holy Names solid favorite|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Holy Names (02) 53 Holy Names 51 2 Cornwall (09) 91 Sayville 95 3 Horace Greeley (01) 96 Cornwall 100 4 Mepham (08) 99 Pittsford Mendon 105 5 Pittsford Mend (05) 112 Mepham 106 6 Amherst (06) 124 Horace Greeley 114 7 Sayville (11) 124 Amherst 131 8 Elmira Southside (04) 187 Elmira Southside 173 9 Mexico (03) 206 Mexico 206 10 Massena (10) 330
Post-Race Comments ... Holy Names ran close to form and won as expected ... Sayville ran well to finish 2nd (led by race winner Kristy Longman)
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Holy Names is the solid favorite despite losing Jillian
King (she re-transferred to her previous school, Scotia-Glenville) ...
Cornwall, Horace Greeley and Mepham seem evenly
matched for the runner-up spot.
|Girls Class B - Honeoye Falls-Lima or East Aurora ??|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Honeoye Falls-Lima (05) 64 East Aurora 53 2 East Aurora (06) 65 Honeoye Falls-Lima 63 3 Pearl River (01) 84 Shoreham Wading Riv 91 4 Shoreham Wading Riv (11) 122 Pearl River 94 5 Saranac Lake (07) 144 Saranac Lake 141 6 Broadalbin-Perth (02) 146 Broadalbin Perth 174 7 Maine-Endwell (04) 158 New Hartford 199 8 New Hartford (03) 183 Maine Endwell 199 9 New Paltz (09) 226 New Paltz 223 10 Franklin Acad (10) 239 Franklin Academy 230 11 Manhasset (08) 261 Manhasset 251
Post-Race Comments ... East Aurora (led by top runner Sarah Mosser) won impressively - all five scorers ran extremely well in great team effort ... Honeoye Falls-Lima actually performed quite well, but couldn't overcome East Aurora's team performance.
Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) won the individual title handily as expected.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima (HFL) is the defending State Class B champion - they have been State champions in every year since 1998 ... At last year's Class B race, East Aurora lost to HFL by only one point ... The race this year looks just as close .... However, the normal top runner for East Aurora (Sarah Mosser) finished as their #7 runner at sectionals (I do not know why, but a repeat would certainly compromise their hope of winning) ... the score above assumes she runs a normal race ... The computer simulations give a slight advantage to East Aurora when based primarily on the sectional championship performances of their top five at sectionals.
Pearl River is not that far back ... top performances by their 3rd through 5th runners give them a real chance of winning because both Honeoye Falls-Lima and East Aurora have significant variability in those positions.
Individual Race ... Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls) is a solid favorite to win the individual title (which obviously helps HFL's team chances) ... Reilly Kiernan (Pelham), Brianna Welch (North Shore), Samantha Stadt (Pearl River) and Theresa Rush (Valley Stream North) could have a good race for the runner-up spot.
|Girls Class C - Bronxville|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Bronxville (01) 23 Bronxville 29 2 Sauquoit Valley (03) 60 Sauquoit Valley 61 3 Sullivan West (09) 118 Sullivan West 99 4 Akron (06) 127 Akron 125 5 Voorheesville (02) 131 Newark Valley 149 6 Newark Valley (04) 139 Voorheesville 167 7 Attica (05) 140 Attica 198 8 Ausable Valley (07) 218 Friends Academy 219 9 Potsdam (10) 242 Hampton Bays 225 10 Hampton Bays (11) 265 Potsdam 235 Ausable Valley 240
Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the team race went pretty much as expected ... Bronxville dominated the team race and Sauquoit Valley was second.
Ellen Muster (Marion) and Erin Cawley (Newark Valley) popped season best performances to finish 1st and 2nd individually.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Bronxville is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as
Class C champion ... they could place all five scorers in the top ten
team finishers ... Sauquoit Valley looks like the solid choice to
|Girls Class D - Thomas A. Edison a slight favorite|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Thomas A. Edison (04) 56 Thomas A. Edison 55 2 Greenwich (02) 61 Beaver River 68 3 Beaver River (03) 72 Greenwich 96 4 Seton Catholic (07) 115 Seton Catholic 100 5 Randolph (06) 157 Randolph 132 6 Oakfield-Alabama (05) 173 Oakfield-Alabama 147 7 Friends Academy (08) 190 Millbrook 174 8 Millbrook (09) 191 Norwood-Norfolk 188 9 Norwood-Norfolk (10) 193 Haldane 203 10 Haldane (01) 239 Shelter Island 279 11 Shelter Island (11) 311
Post-Race Comments ... Thomas A. Edison and Beaver River ran close to form to finish 1st and 2nd team-wise.
Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic) out-legged Emily Fung (Greenwich) for the individual title with Jessica Bradley (Pavilion) 3rd.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
The top-rated teams in the Class D race have a fair number of
inconsistencies, and that gives three teams a statistical chance of
winning ... Overall, Thomas A. Edison is the favorite - Edison's
early season leader (Caitlin Palmer) has not been running as fast
recently, but some other runners have stepped-up to help the team effort
... Greenwich has the ability to step-up and win the race ...
Beaver River is the defending Class D champion - and they still have
a chance to win (even though last year's top runner decided not to run
XC this season).