Predict                              Actual
     School                 Sect      Score        School                  Score
     ===================    =====     =====        ==================      =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius   03-AA       60          Fayetteville-Manlius     66
 2   Saratoga               02-AA       64          Saratoga                 83
 3   Warwick Valley         09-AA      156          Liverpool               176
 4   Shenendehowa           02-AA      195          Queensbury              212
 5   Queensbury             02-A       200          Warwick Valley          215
 6   Liverpool              03-AA      216          Collegiate              235
 7   Collegiate             AIS        270          Shenendehowa            241
 8   Chaminade              CHSAA      309          Guilderland             245
 9   St. Anthony's          CHSAA      317          Chaminade               261
 10  Monsignor Farrell      CHSAA      320          St. Anthony's           298
 11  Guilderland            02-AA      339          Monsignor Farrell       306
 12  Penfield               05-AA      356          Smithtown               315
 13  Smithtown              11-AA      372          Arlington               336
 14  Burnt Hills            02-A       374          Penfield                340
 15  Shaker                 02-AA      388          Shaker                  363
 16  Ithaca                 04-AA      396          Ithaca                  381
 17  Syosset                08-AA      409          Syosset                 405
 18  Arlington              01-AA      415          Burnt Hill              490
 19  Fordham Prep           CHSAA      433          Stuyvesant              496
 20  Somers                 01-A       453          Fordham Prep            519
 21  St. Peter's            CHSAA      478          Somers                  533
 22  Pearl River            01-B       494          Pearl River             534
 23  Canisius               CHSAA      597          St. Peter's             540
 24  Stuyvesant             PSAL       606          Canisius                597
 25  Brooklyn Tech          PSAL       645          Curtis                  628
 26  Curtis                 PSAL       679          Brooklyn Tech           675
 27  Midwood                PSAL       787          Midwood                 825
	

Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) ran his best race of season to win the individual title impressively ... Steve Murdock (Saratoga) was second ... The big surprise was Colin Heenan (Liverpool) finishing 3rd with a speed rating of 193 (although Colin did have ratings of 186 and 188 at States and OHSL Championships).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Looks like another close match-up between Fayetteville-Manlius and Saratoga ... But this race has some differences compared to the NY State Meet held in Queensbury - (1) the Federation Meet has a stronger line-up of teams and team runners, and (2) the race is being contested at Bowdoin Park (different layout and terrain as compared to Queensbury).

Team scores (the magnitude and closeness between teams) are dependent upon both the quality of individual teams AND the quantity of individual runners who are evenly matched ... For example, some teams may have no chance of winning, but they have one or two runners capable of running with the top teams and affecting the team scores ... Both FM and Saratoga have high-quality runners as their top five scorers based on speed - BUT compared to the NY State Meet (both Class AA and merged results), the Federation Meet includes at least a dozen or more new runners capable of inter-mingling amongst the FM and Saratoga scorers (and that includes two team runners from the PSAL) - And that can have a big effect on the FM vs. Saratoga team scores.

Once again, FM wins a higher percentage of computer simulated races (but not as high as pre-State Meet simulations) ... The average of all simulations have FM beating Saratoga by 14 points ... The average of simulations using just the last half of the season has FM winning by only four points (and that's what posted above) ... In terms of winning (either FM or Saratoga), the race is very sensitive to the placement of the #4 and #5 runners AND the placement of runners from other teams.

There is an old saying in the horse racing industry, "Horses for Courses", meaning some horses race remarkably well on specific courses and not-so-remarkable on others ... Fayetteville-Manlius raced remarkably well at Bowdoin Park last year (it was one of the greatest XC team accomplishments in NY State history) ... FM did not race in the Queensbury Invitational (college visitations), and had no other races over the Queensbury course before States ... Saratoga had proven ability over the Queensbury course before States, so Saratoga MAY have had an advantage at States (but that's only a guess).

Saratoga and FM are both capable of winning this race - It should be very interesting ... Warwick Valley is an excellent team and a solid choice to finish third ... Shenendehowa, Queensbury and Liverpool appear closely matched if they run well ... Three CHSAA teams (Chaminade, St. Anthony's and Monsignor Farrell) appear very closely matched in this particular race with the AIS entry (Collegiate) slightly ahead of them (but I wouldn't be surprised to see some place-swapping amongst these teams).

The outcome of this race has implications in the NTN (Nike Team National) selection process ... Entering this weekend, there appear to be four Northeast teams in contention for two automatic selection spots and two remaining at-large spots (FM, Saratoga, CBA-New Jersey, Morris Hills, NJ) ... At this point, I have only begun looking at the NTN teams ... CBA is the likely favorite in New Jersey's Meet of Champions (also this Saturday) ... At last week's Group Races, CBA-NJ posted speed ratings of 190, 186, 185, 182 and 177 ... Nationwide, I currently have York slightly ahead of all other teams (but only slightly with FM and Saratoga very close).

Individual Race ... The NY State Meet featured a great finish between Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland) and Steve Murdock (Saratoga) ... These two are the race favorites, but the race includes other runners with a chance to win ... Noel Bateman (Aquinas) is undefeated this season and has posted some very fast times - Noel finished 16th at Footlocker NE last year and appears capable of upsetting the top two ... Dan Busby (New Paltz) finished second to Bateman at States - Dan runs very well at Bowdoin (4th last year) ... Tommy Gruenewald and Owen Kimple (FM) ran very well at Bowdoin last year - Kimple started out the season with some super ratings and appears to be regaining form ... Ben White (Liverpool) and Charles White (Garden City) are capable of challenging for the win ... Christian Thompson (Candor) looked very strong in winning the Class D championship ... Dan Lewis (Monsignor Farrell) is the CHSAA Champion (also finished 3rd in the Varsity G race at Manhattan & 8th at Great American ROC) ... The top PSAL runner is Keith Stapleton (Curtis; ran a 186 rating at the PSAL Championships over Van Cortlandt Park's 3.1 mile course) ... This is a great quality race!

 

                                     Predict                             Actual
     School                 Sect      Score        School                 Score
     ===================    =====     =====        ==================     =====
 1   Saratoga               02-AA       65         Saratoga                  53
 2   Suffern                01-AA      145         Bronxville               138
 3   Warwick Valley         09-AA      168         Suffern                  141
 4   Bronxville             01-C       174         Bay Shore                156
 5   Shenendehowa           02-AA      209         Ward Melville            169
 6   Ward Melville          11-AA      209         Shenendehowa             194
 7   Holy Names             02-A       221         East Aurora              225
 8   Bay Shore              11-AA      231         Honeoye Falls-Lima       239
 9   Fayetteville-Manlius   03-AA      239         Warwick Valley           241
 10  Queensbury             02-A       240         Queensbury               245
 11  Burnt Hills            02-A       247         Burnt Hills              249
 12  East Aurora            06-B       255         Fayetteville-Manlius     254
 13  Honeoye Falls-Lima     05-B       269         Holy Names               266
 14  Cicero-North Syracuse  03-AA      288         Pearl River              286
 15  Shaker                 02-AA      319         Cicero-North Syracuse    294
 16  Pearl River            01-B       347         Shaker                   374
 17  Notre Dame             CHSAA      472         Notre Dame               461
 18  Sacred Heart           CHSAA      528         St. John the Bapt        537
 19  St. John the Bapt      CHSAA      550         Tottenville              569
 20  St. Anthonys           CHSAA      552         Townsend Harris          603
 21  St. John Villa         CHSAA      604         Sacred Heart             608
 22  Tottenville            PSAL       628         St. John Villa           624
 23  Townsend Harris        PSAL       631         St. Anthony's            663
 24  Curtis                 PSAL       724         Curtis                   671
 25  Mount Mercy-Buffalo    CHSAA      735         Mount Mercy-Buffalo      758
 26  McKee/SI               PSAL       798         McKee/SI                 774
 27  Horace Mann            AIS        831         Horace Mann              835	

Aislinn Ryan (Warwick) won the individual title handily by over half-a-minute with Lindsey Ferguson (Saratoga) and Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively

Pre-Race Analysis ... Saratoga becomes the solid favorite because Hilton declined their Federation bid (see Hilton Coach Mike Szczepanik's explanation for not running at Feds) ... Hilton is preparing for later races (especially NTN) and this allows their top runner (Amanda Griggs) some time to recover from a sore shin - Hilton has proven more than enough to receive an NTN invitation (remember that most States do not have two State Meets) - In addition (according to my preliminary NTN evaluations), Saratoga and Hilton are two of four teams who should be favored as possible NTN winners (Corona Del Mar and Yankton are the other two and it's really close).

Suffern appears second-best ... Warwick Valley and Bronxville are not far behind - All three NY teams (and Roxbury, NJ) have run faster than some teams receiving NTN bids ... unfortunately, they are located in the Northeast region which already includes Saratoga and Hilton.

Individual Race ... Aislinn Ryan (Warwick), the defending national champion, is the obvious favorite followed by Hannah Davidson and Lindsey Ferguson (Saratoga) ... Shelby Greany and Kara McKenna (Suffern) have been running very well and are experienced on the Bowdoin course, as is Kristen Reese (Carmel) who popped a huge performance at Feds last year ... Brittany Sheffey (Bellport) and Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) are very capable runners.