Footlocker Finals 2005 - Preview:

The ratings below do NOT have precise accuracy (although it may appear that way) ... they are approximations at best based on results one or more recent races for each runner ... I consider the ratings (for this type of national race) to be similar the track & field seedings ... and with extremely rare exception, results of track races are never the same (exactly) as the seedings (some runners may have great races and others poor races).

Note ... This applies to both boys and girls below ... Each race has a few runners who appear to be the favorites ... However, the majority of runners are remarkably close in speed ... so the margins-of-error overlap enormously for any projected finishing places.

Post-Race Comments added below on Dec 10, 2005 ...

[BOYS Preview]

GIRLS - Footlocker Finals Preview

Aislinn Ryan ... The defending National Champion ... I picked Aislinn Ryan to win last year's Footlocker Finals for several reasons - First, it was her second trip to Footlockers so she had experience with course and with the festivities and requirements surrounding the finalists (plus she finished a good 12th in 2003) - Second, Aislinn had shown she was much improved in 2004 compared to 2003 ... Although Aislinn lost all in-state XC races to Nicole Blood in 2004, Aislinn won Great American 2004 with a super performance and entered Footlocker Finals with the highest speed rating of any contestant (168) ... The Balboa course seemed to fit her running style perfectly and she had trained specifically for the Footlocker race.

Aislinn Ryan began the 2005 season with very fast wins at the Great American and the Paul Short Invitational (164 speed ratings in both) ... Since then, she hasn't run as fast and for while that concerned me, especially after her loss to Nicole Blood at Footlocker NE (where I think she expected to run better) - BUT I'm a big believer in performance patterns, and Aislinn is following a performance pattern very similar to last year which led to the national championship ... The week before Footlocker Finals last year, Aislinn ran an indoor track meet and set the NY State Junior Class record for the 3000 Meters (9:47.1, which was later broken by both Aislinn and Nicole Blood) - This year, Aislinn ran the same indoor track meet and ran 9:45.8 for 3000 meters ... The one difference this year is that Aislinn does not have the highest individual speed rating (she is second) - Jordan Hasay has the highest this year (168) ... However, it appears to me that Aislinn Ryan is primed and ready to defend her national championship.

Marie Lawrence ... Marie Lawrence is making her third trip to Footlocker Finals - she ran very well in 2004 and 2003 and was the runner-up both years - She has experience and success running at a national level ... Before the Footlocker regional races this year, I thought Marie Lawrence might be the favorite to win this year - she has had a super year in both winning and running fast (wins at the Stanford, Clovis and Mt. Sac Invites) ... Her loss to Jordan Hasay at Footlocker West could be just a small blip on the radar screen ... Marie runs the downhill section of Balboa better than any female runner I've seen - last year, she lost ground to Aislinn Ryan on the uphill sections which compromised her chances of winning.

Nicole Blood ... "Three Times a Charm" - but that did not work last year ... Nicole Blood makes her fourth trip to Footlocker Finals and this may be her best opportunity to win ... Nicole has been one of the favorites every year she has run and this year is no different in that regard ... The difference in 2005 is that Nicole is not running for Saratoga High School - Nicole and Caitlin Lane are running for the Fast lane Track Club (coached by Caitlin's father Bob Lane) ... Nicole and Caitlin have run fewer races than they would typically run for a high school team and that may be an advantage at Footlocker Finals ... Last year, both runners came to Footlocker Finals following a series of races (NTN, Footlocker NE, NY Federations, NY States, sectional championships, Suburbans) - It seemed to myself and others that Nicole appeared to be increasingly exhausted at the end of each sequential race beginning at NY States (emphasize "appeared" because I don't know for certain) - That won't be a concern this year (meaning it can't be used as an excuse).

Nicole Blood looked very strong in winning Footlocker NE on Nov. 26th (her best speed rating of the year - 161), so she is obviously a legitimate contender for the win ... My horse-race handicapping experience finds one negative concern - Nicole has run the Balboa course three times at Footlockers with mediocre performances at best (and that's very unusually for Nicole Blood) - My "horses-for-courses" theory would normally prevent me from betting in this circumstance - BUT this year is different - Nicole Blood has focused on a big effort at Footlockers - she knows the course and has winning experience at the national level in both cross country and track ... This could be the year.

Caitlin Lane ... Caitlin Lane and Nicole Blood are training partners - both competed at Footlocker Finals last year ... Caitlin ran her best race of the season at Footlocker NE in finishing third to Nicole and Aislinn Ryan (Caitlin was actually closing on Aislinn near the finish) ... Caitlin Lane could be the Footlocker surprise of 2005.

Jordan Hasay ... A remarkable freshman talent from California who should feel right at home on the Balboa course ... Jordan Hasay has run some very fast times track times as a junior high runner and is now extending that speed to cross country in her first varsity season ... In terms of my XC speed ratings, Jordan ran a 159 rating at the California State Meet and then popped a huge 168 rating at Footlocker West making her the top rated runner entering Footlocker Finals (Aislinn Ryan won Footlockers last year with a 168 speed rating which Aislinn ran at both Footlocker Finals and Great American 2004) ... Jordan's ratings were in the low to mid 150s, so that's a significant step-up in her last two races ... Whether she can maintain that form for Footlocker Finals remains to be seen ... Jordan's one disadvantage on most other contenders in this race is her lack of Footlocker Final experience ... But Jordan Hasay has already shown the speed necessary to win.

Megan O'Reilly ... Making her first trip to Footlocker Finals as a senior ... Had a super senior year running for Mt. Spokane WA - was the impressive winner of the OR-WA Border Clash ... Megan O'Reilly finished third behind Jordan Hasay and Marie Lawrence at Footlocker West ... Megan is one of the few entrants with a 160 speed rating in any race (she ran a 162 rating at the Washington State Meet) - and that makes her a legitimate contender.

Betsy Bies ... Ran very well to win NTN Nationals (speed rating 161), but how much will the NTN experience cost Betsy at Footlockers? ... Ramsey Kavan won NTN last year and then finished third at Footlocker Finals.

Anne St. Geme ... Super effort to finish second at NTN in conditions less-than-favorable to most California runners ... The shift from Portland Meadows to near-by Balboa Park should prove beneficial.

Elizabeth Yetzer ... Finished a very good 7th at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Defeated Aislinn Ryan at last year's Outdoor National Track & Field Championships in the 2-Mile (10:15.73, also finished 4th in the 1-Mile (4:43)) ... I'm not sure what to make of her 9th-place finish at Footlocker Midwest (one of her lowest speed ratings of the year, 148) - Although her Lakeville North MN team was invited and competed at NTN, Elizabeth Yetzer did NOT run (according to the DyeStat forum board, she attended a wedding instead ... I did not know that before-hand, so I badly over-rated the Lakeville team at NTN).

Keara Sammons ... Won Footlocker Midwest (and her division of the Colorado State Meet) ... Finished 11th at last year's Footlocker Finals ... a very good runner.

So Who's Gonna Win ?? ... This is a great race with a number of possible winners ... Last year looked like a dual between Aislinn Ryan and Marie Lawrence going into the race - I didn't think any of the NTN runners would be sharp enough to win after spending three to four days at NTN and then traveling to San Diego for a couple of days before Footlockers (although Ramsey Kavan did finish third) ... This year, Betsy Bies and Anne St. Geme both ran very well at NTN and both are legitimate contenders - but the competition at Footlockers will be much stiffer than at NTN (I will be a bit surprised if either wins, but both are talented enough to win).

The big question is "Can the new-kid-on-the-block (Jordan Hasay) outrun the talent and experience of her competition?? ... Answer - I don't know (only time will tell) ... Jordan Hasay's best race of the year was her most recent and it was significantly faster than her previous races - generally, most runners do not run as fast in their next XC race after this kind of improvement (especially at Footlocker Finals) .... I believe Aislinn Ryan will run a big race and it will be up to the other runners to beat her ... Nicole Blood, Marie Lawrence and Jordan Hasay are the other top favorites - All have a good chance to win ... Megan O'Reilly and Caitlin Lane could spring an upset and Keara Sammons will finish well.

Post-Race Comments ... Entering the race, the runners with the highest individual race speed ratings were Jordan Hasay (168), Aislinn Ryan (164), Marie Lawrence (163) and Megan O'Reilly (162) - they finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd and 4th, respectively ... Jordan Hasay is obviously a special runner ... The West team look best entering the race and they were much the best.

The Northeast team finished last - Aislinn Ryan ran decently (very similar to her recent series of races) ... Danielle Tauro & Liz Deir both ran well ... Nicole Blood ran similar to her other Footlocker Final performances - I don't know the reason, but some runners are adversely affected by Southern California urban air (e.g. runners prone to asthma or stress-asthma type respiratory ailments who live in different environments) - and Nicole Blood is a much better runner than her Footlocker Final results would suggest.

The speed ratings listed below are primarily from the Footlocker regional races ... However, I modified some if I had additional data ... I could use the ratings and rank the runners from 1-40 (which I have done in the past) - But experience has shown that it does not do a great job in regards to predicting a team score ... The higher ratings have been a decent indicator to identify the contenders for the individual win.

Something else experience has shown - Many runners do not run as well at Finals as they do at regionals ... Perhaps "qualifying for Footlocker Finals" is the real goal for most runners rather than winning Footlocker Finals (winning is realistically limited to a small group of runners).

 

 -------------------  ----- Name -------------------  -----  Nicole Blood Aislinn Ryan Caitlin Lane Danielle Tauro Liz Costello Briana Jackucewicz Lindsey Ferguson Elisabeth Deir Hannah Davidson Shelby Greany

Betsy Bies Keara Sammons Elizabeth Yetzer Hanna Grinaker Bria Wetsch Bridget Franek Allison Eckert Lindsay Anderson Alexandra Banfich Merideth Snow

Nichole Jones Kate Niehaus Aurora Scott Miranda Walker Kathy Kroeger Brooke Upshaw Bona Jones Catherine White Kelly Parrish Emily Reese

Jordan Hasay Marie Lawrence Megan O'Reilly Anne St. Geme Kauren Tarver Crystal Reed Kari Hardt Christy Adamyk Cassi Ricks Alexandra Kosinski

---------------- ----- ---------- ------------ Grade School (Club) State Region Speed Rating ---------------- ----- ---------- ------------ 12 Saratoga Fast Lane NY Northeast 161.1 161 12 Warwick Valley NY Northeast 161.0 161 10 Saratoga Fast Lane NY Northeast 157.7 158 11 Southern Regional NJ Northeast 156.0 156 12 Conestoga PA Northeast 155.0 155 9 Colts Neck NJ Northeast 154.8 155 12 Saratoga NY Northeast 153.8 154 11 Honeoye Falls-Lima NY Northeast 150.0 150 10 Saratoga NY Northeast 151.1 151 9 Suffern NY Northeast 149.6 150 11 Yankton SD Midwest 158.4 158 12 Smoky Hills CO Midwest 157.1 157 12 Lakeville North MN Midwest 156.0 156 12 Detroit Lakes MN Midwest 155.0 155 12 Holy Family Cath MN Midwest 154.0 154 12 Crestwood OH Midwest 152.7 153 11 Sioux Falls Roosev SD Midwest 151.0 151 10 Leeds ND Midwest 150.3 150 10 Culver Girls Acad IN Midwest 149.3 149 12 Eureaka MO Midwest 147.7 148 11 Westfield TX South 154.7 155 12 Spring Valley SC South 153.0 153 10 Oaktree Academy VA South 153.0 153 12 Southlake Carroll TX South 153.0 153 9 Independence TN South 152.7 153 12 Southlake Carroll TX South 152.4 152 12 Estero FL South 152.3 152 11 Northside VA South 151.7 152 12 Ocala Vanguard FL South 151.7 152 10 Chamblee GA South 150.7 151 9 Mission Coll Prep CA West 168.0 168 11 Reno NV West 163.0 163 12 Mt. Spokane WA West 161.0 161 12 Corona Del Mar CA West 159.0 159 10 Serrano CA West 153.3 153 12 Fountain Valley CA West 152.3 152 12 Queen Creek AZ West 151.3 151 11 Glendora CA West 147.7 148 12 Fremont UT West 148.0 148 11 Oak Ridge CA West 146.3 146

BOYS - Footlocker Finals Preview & Projection

Does the highest individual speed rating mean anything ?? ... This year, Michael Eaton has the highest individual speed rating for the guys (205) ... Last year, Andrew Bumbalough had the highest rating entering the race (206) and he finished second ... In 2003, Matt Withrow had the highest rating (209) and he won defeating Galen Rupp ... In 2002, Chris Solinsky had the highest and he would have won no matter what (he ran 212 at Finals) ... But it must be remembered that ratings entering a race simply reflect how fast a runner has run - It does NOT predict how fast a runner can run.

Michael Eaton ... Won the Footlocker South regional (speed rating 202) ... Ran a 205 speed rating at the Kentucky State Meet which is the highest individual rating of all 40 finalists ... Michael Eaton finished 33rd at last year's Footlocker Finals, so he has experience over the course ... A top contender and the probable morning-line favorite.

Mohamud Ige ... Won the Footlocker Midwest regional ... Finished 13th at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Ran 202 ratings at both Footlocker Midwest and the Colorado State Meet ... Finished 2nd at Great American.

Ayalen Taye ... Won the Footlocker Northeast regional (speed rating 204 which is second-best to Michael Eaton) ... I was very impressed with his race at Footlocker NE - both times he passed me, Ayalen Taye was simply cruising ... Definitely one of the favorites to win this year.

AJ Acosta ... Won the Footlocker West regional ... Finished 9th at last year's Footlocker Finals which is the best of all returning runners ... AJ Acosta has the home-town advantage and has probably run the Balboa course more frequently than any other entrant ... A memorable section of Fox Sports Net coverage of Footlocker 2004 was watching AJ Acosta and his "fan-club".

Diego Mercado ... Finished 20th at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Was reportedly cruising at Footlocker West with an effort to simply qualify (which is a good idea) ... Popped an excellent 203 speed rating at the Mt. SAC Invitational where he beat AJ Acosta by 15 seconds.

Kenny Klotz ... Finished 24th at last year's Footlocker Finals ... Won the Nike Team Nationals and the OR-WA Border Clash with impressive runs ... Has shown very good speed ... The question is - Will the NTN effort hurt Kenny Klotz's chances at Footlocker?

So Who's Gonna Win ?? ... This race is wide-open - Nobody appears to overlay the field ... By overlay, I mean completely superior in speed - Chris Solinsky overlaid the field in 2002 - Matt Withrow had a big speed advantage on the field entering the race in 2003 .... This year, Michael Eaton has a slightly better rating than Ayalen Taye, Diego Mercado, Mohamud Ige, AJ Acosta, Kenny Klotz and several others ... It is close enough that a bunch of guys could win.

AJ Acosta won Footlocker West (as did Ken Cormier last year) and AJ Acosta has a home-course advantage ... Ayalen Taye looked sensational in winning Footlocker Northeast - He may be very difficult to beat if he adapts to the Balboa course ... Michael Eaton and Mohamud Ige are the other two regional winners ... Kenny Klotz won NTN ... I believe the winner will likely be one of these five runners.

Post-Race Comments ... Not surprised that AJ Acosta won - I thought he should be a slight favorite entering the race because he had been running well and had the home-course advantage ... Had this been a pari-mutual betting race, I probably would not have bet AJ Acosta to win because he would likely get over-bet by his California fans (and I prefer not betting money on the favorite in most instances).

How to phrase this? - Overall, the Northeast team ran "unsuccessfully" (they finished last and the top NE runner was 14th) ... I thought they would do better ... The West looked like the strongest team entering the race and they were the best ... NTN Team runners Kenny Klotz and Jack Bolas ran quite well after the demanding race at Portland Meadows the week before - but six of the top eight finishers at Footlocker Finals ran at Footlocker West or NTN the week before (I think the traveling and multi-day festivities at NTN tire the runners more than the NTN race itself).

 

 -------------------  -----   ----------------   -----   ----------   ------------
 Name                 Grade   School (Club)      State   Region       Rating
 -------------------  -----   ----------------   -----   ----------   ------------

 AJ Acosta              12    El Camino            CA   West         201.3    201
 Diego Mercado          12    West Covina          CA   West         201.0    201
 Kenny Klotz            12    Central Catholic     Or   West         201.0    201
 Ben Sitler             12    St. Francis          CA   West         201.0    201
 Matthew Tebo           11    El Dorado            NM   West         200.1    200
 Michael Coe            12    Cabrillo             CA   West         200.0    200
 Isaac Stoutenburgh     12    Crater               OR   West         199.7    200
 Danny Mercado          12    West Covina          CA   West         199.7    200
 Jeffery Helmer         12    Jackson              WA   West         198.3    198
 Taylor Nepon           11    Mead                 WA   West         193.0    193

 Mohamud Ige            12    Denver South         CO   Midwest      201.7    202
 Landon Peacock         12    Cedar Springs        MI   Midwest      200.7    201
 Brock Hagerman         12    Pendelton Heights    IN   Midwest      199.3    199
 Ryan Craven            12    Prospect             IL   Midwest      199.0    199
 Jeremy Stevens         12    Winnebago            IL   Midwest      198.3    198
 Daniel Roberts         12    Crested Butte        CO   Midwest      198.0    198
 Steven Finley          12    Palatine             IL   Midwest      197.7    198
 Noah Shannon           12    Fort Collins         CO   Midwest      197.0    197
 Evan Jager             11    HD Jacobs            IL   Midwest      195.7    196
 De'Sean Turner         11    Warren Central       IN   Midwest      195.0    195

 Ayalen Taye            11    Cushing Academy      MA   Northeast    204.0    204
 Sintayehu Taye         10    Cushing Academy      MA   Northeast    201.3    201
 Noel Bateman           12    Aquinas              NY   Northeast    200.5    201
 Greg Kelsey            12    Saratoga             NY   Northeast    199.7    200
 Tradelle Ward          12    Griswold             CT   Northeast    199.5    200
 Brian Rhodes Devey     11    Guilderland          NY   Northeast    199.1    199
 Jeffery Perrella       12    Westfield            NJ   Northeast    198.7    199
 Jay Koloseus           12    Guilford             CT   Northeast    198.5    199
 Keith Capecci          12    Council Rock         PA   Northeast    198.3    198
 Joshua Hibbs           12    Hatboro Horsham      PA   Northeast    196.6    197

 Michael Eaton          12    Greenwood            KY   South        205.0    205
 Daniel Gerber          12    The Woodlands        TX   South        200.0    200
 Jack Bolas             12    Chapel Hill          NC   South        199.0    199
 Ben Hubers             11    McEachern            GA   South        198.7    199
 Duncan Phillips        11    A&M Consolidated     TX   South        197.3    197
 Brad Siragusa          12    Chantilly            VA   South        197.0    197
 Justin Harbor          12    Flagker Palm Coast   FL   South        196.7    197
 Sandy Roberts          12    Broughton            NC   South        196.3    196
 Colby Lowe             10    Southlake Carroll    TX   South        194.7    195
 Robert Sorrell         12    Bolton               TN   South        194.3    194