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 NYSPHSAA State Meet 2004 - Projections (and Actual Scores)

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 9, 2004 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  ... Actual Scores added Nov. 13, 2004

[Girls Projections]

Actual Scores added Nov. 13, 2004

 Boys Class AA
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   FM                03      33        FM                     32
  2   Lockport          06      59        Lockport               54
  3   Saratoga          02      88        Saratoga Springs       74
  4   Warwick           09     122        Warwick Valley        137
  5   Syosset           08     125        Syosset               145
  6   North Rockland    01     140        Rush Henrietta        148
  7   Rush-Henrietta    05     169        North Rockland        157
  8   Ithaca            04     184        Ithaca                181
  9   Smithtown         11     199        Smithtown             194
  
Post-Race Comment ... This race went close to expectations ... an improving Lockport team has closed the gap somewhat on FM ... Saratoga continues to show they are a very good team ... Ryan Sheridan (Walt Whitman) won the race handily with John Martinez (North Rockland) running his best race of the year to be 2nd and Kevin Tschirhart (Northport) 3rd ... Jared Burdick (7th) was FM's top finisher ... Mark Russell (Lockport, 9th) finished ahead of three FM scorers and three other Lockport runners broke into FM's top five.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius (FM) is the #1 ranked team in the nation and is the favorite to win the Class AA title ... FM has accomplished some remarkable feats this season in sweeping the top five places at celebrated meets such as the Manhattan Invitational (and going 1-2-4-5-7 at McQuaid) ... Nationally ranked Lockport (#9 nation, #3 Northeast US) could be capable of finishing close to FM ... Lockport is improving, but they probably want to peak at Federations where an NTN (Nike Team Nationals) invitation could be at stake ... Saratoga has run very well this season (they beat reigning State champion Shenendehowa at sectionals) ... Warwick and Syosset appear very closely matched ... Syosset has two top runners named "Tully" so you know they're good!

Individual Race ... The top runners are sophomore Ryan Sheridan (Walt Whitman), senior Kevin Tschirhart (Northport) ... Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland), Dan McManamon (Shenendehowa), Carlos Jamieson (North Rockland), Tommy Gruenewald (FM), Jared Burdick (FM) and Mark Russell (Lockport) are also excellent runners (as are others in the race).

 

 Boys Class A
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills       02      40        Burnt Hills            36
  2   Tappan Zee        01      65        Kenmore East           97
  3   Lynbrook          08     118        Victor                 99
  4   Victor            05     140        Tappan Zee            101
  5   Kenmore East      06     143        Lynbrook              135
  6   Cornwall          09     154        Corcoran              149
  7   Sayville          11     157        Sayville              150
  8   Corcoran          03     158        Vestal                162
                                          Cornwall              167
  
Post-Race Comment ... Burnt Hills won as predicted, but Kenmore East and Victor ran much better than expected ... Tappan Zee did not have have their best race ... Ken Little (Burnt Hills), Charles White (Garden City), Shamus Nally (Burnt Hills), Mike Dobmeier (Williamsville North), and Tony DeRobertis (Tappan Zee) were the top five finishers.

Pre-Race Analysis ... At last year's State Meet, Tappan Zee edged Burnt Hills by three points to win the Class B title (both teams are now Class A due to the new five-class system) ... Burnt Hills competed very well in the highly competitive Suburban Council league of Section 2 (mostly Class AA teams) and is this year's favorite to win the Class A title ... Tappan Zee is capable of making this much closer than the score above indicates with a top team effort.

Individual Race ... Looks like close competition between a number of runners that include Ken Little (Burnt Hills), Charles White (Garden City), Tony DeRobertis (Tappan Zee), Steve Soprano (Queensbury), Shamus Nally (Burnt Hills) and Mike Dobmeier (Williamsville North).

 

 Boys Class B
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Somers            01      34        Somers                 42
  2   Holland Patent    03      80        Shoreham Wading        82
  3   Shoreham-Wading   11      99        Holland Patent         88
  4   East Aurora       06     104        East Aurora           112
  5   Honeoye FL        05     133        Honeoye FL            116
  6   Cobleskill-Rich   02     158        Canton                147
  7   Peru              07     189        Onteora               184
  8   Maine-Endwell     04     195        Peru                  204
  9   Canton            10     209        Maine Endwell         205
  10  Onteora           09     224        Cobleskill Rich       213
  11  Seaford           08     244        Seaford               290
  
Post-Race Comment ... The top five teams ran fairly close to expectations, although Shoreham Wading River outscored Holland Patent ... Canton and Onteora ran better than predicted ... Dan Busby (New Paltz) won the individual race with an outstanding performance (his familiarity with the course probably helped) ... Noel Bateman (Aquinas), Geary Gubbins (Southampton), and Dave Raucci (Red Hook) were next finishers.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Somers is a solid favorite to win the Class B title (Coach Tim Fulton's team has been running very well) ... Holland Patent improved continually over the last part of the season to win the Section 3 title (so who knows) ... Shoreham Wading River and East Aurora also appear capable of finishing second with top efforts.

Individual Race ... Class B is another very competitive individual race ... top runners include Dan Busby (New Paltz, who transferred from Seton Catholic in Section 4 to New Paltz this year), Alex Bean (Somers), Dave Raucci (Red Hook), Ryan Hays (Shoreham Wading River), Geary Gubbins (Southampton), Noel Bateman (Aquinas) and Trevor Rundell (Honeoye Falls-Lima).

 

 Boys Class C
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Sauquoit Valley   03      72        Sauquoit Valley        57
  2   Rhinebeck         09      96        Dansville             107
  3   Ticonderoga       07     105        Ticonderoga           109
  4   Pawling           01     117        Rhinebeck             123
  5   Dansville         05     128        Pawling               133
  6   Fonda Fultonville 02     139        Fonda Fultonville     143
  7   Delhi             04     158        Wheatley              158
  8   Wheatley          08     168        Delhi                 165
  9   Wilson            06     171        Wilson                167
  10  Potsdam           10     247        Potsdam               229
  11  Mattituck         11     315        Mattituck             327
  	
Post-Race Comment ... Sauquoit Valley won pretty much as expected (the final score was dependent on team health) ... Dansville finished better than predicted with a very good effort ... Individually, Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey) ran his best race of the year to win impressively ... Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and John Nicotera (Sauquoit Valley) were 2nd and 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the favorite to re-capture the Class C title  (they were the 2002 champions) ... Sauquoit Valley edged Tully (ranked #2 in the State) by only three points at sectionals when Sauquoit's number two runner (Steve Stedman) was unable to finish the race).

Individual Race ... Seniors Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and John Nicotera (Sauquoit Valley) are the favorites to win the individual title ... Nicotera ran his best race of the year in winning sectionals ... Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey), Matt O'Connor (Rhinebeck) and others are closely matched for top five finishing positions.

 

 Boys Class D
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Tupper Lake       07      48        Berne-Knox-West        43
  2   Berne-Knox-West   02      55        Tupper Lake            56
  3   Oakfield-Alabama  05      95        Oakfield Alabama       86
  4   Beaver River      03     117        Beaver River          119
  5   Marathon          04     139        Marathon              161
  6   Barker            06     170        Barker                176
  7   Norwood-Norfolk   10     188        Port Jefferson        180
  8   Port Jefferson    11     201        Norwood Norfolk       199
  9   Millbrook ***     09     227        Keio                  203
  10  Keio              01     232        Eldred ***            215
  11  East Rockaway     08     284        East Rockaway         304
		
Post-Race Comment ... Berne-Knox-Westerlo's #3, #4 and #5 runners did exactly what was needed to win ... the rest of the race went pretty much to form ... Eldred represented Section 9 (not Millbrook as I used in the prediction) ... Christian Thompson (Candor) out-finished Leo Smith (East Rochester) in good individual race.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This was one of the more interesting races from a computer simulation point-of-view ... Tupper Lake and Berne-Knox-Westerlo are the clear favorites with the edge going Tupper Lake overall ... however, Berne-Knox-Westerlo did well in some simulations because this race appears very sensitive to the placement of the #3, #4 and #5 runners (all teams), so that's where this race may be decided.

Individual Race ... Sophomore Christian Thompson (Candor) is the top rated Class D individual ... contenders include Erik Van Ingen (Marathon) and Leo Smith (East Rochester, 3rd at last year’s State Meet to Lopez Lomong and Dominic Luka).

 

 

 Girls Class AA
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga          02      22        Saratoga Springs       18
  2   Bay Shore         11      82        Bay Shore              85
  3   Hilton            05      93        Hilton                 87
  4   CNS               03      95        CNS                   104
  5   Suffern           01     116        Suffern               104
  6   Monroe-Woodbury   09     155        Orchard Park          167
  7   Orchard Park      06     168        Monroe Woodbury       170
  8   Corning           04     220        Corning               213
  9   East Meadow       08     235        East Meadow           219
		
Post-Race Comment ... The prediction was close ... Bay Shore edged Hilton by two points - Hilton's Amanda Griggs (6th team finisher, usually higher) was limping noticeably after the race, so the top five Hilton runners ran very well ... CNS ran without injured Alicia Finger (usually their #3 or #4 runner) ... Nicole Blood (Saratoga) out-finished Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley) in another outstanding match-up - Nicole Blood's winning time of 17:40.4 is only five seconds off Molly Huddle's (Elmira Notre Dame) 2001 course record of 17:35.0 (but the courses are slightly different and the course was not in perfect condition after the rain and snow).

Pre-Race Analysis ...  This race has incredible talent ... Saratoga is the #1 ranked team in the nation ... Bay Shore (#6 nation, #2 Northeast US), Cicero-North Syracuse (#6 Northeast US), Bethlehem (#7 Northeast US, but NOT in the State Meet) and Hilton (#10 Northeast US) are also highly ranked by NTN (Nike Team National ... In my opinion, they should all be the top five Northeast) ... In terms of national ranking for other NY teams, Saratoga is so good they make other outstanding teams look not-so-good ... This Saratoga team is probably the best high school girls team ever.

Hilton is a slight question mark because top runner Amanda Griggs is coming off an early-October injury ... she ran at sectionals (finishing 4th team-wise) and is hoping to regain top form by Federations ... the Hilton score above reflects her running well at States ... CNS and Hilton are closely matched, so it could go either way between them ... and both are not that far behind an excellent Bay Shore team ... Suffern is also an excellent team.

Individual Race ... The individual Class AA race has one of the marquee match-ups of the State Meet that features junior Nicole Blood (Saratoga) and junior Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley). Nicole Blood, a Footlocker Finalist the past two years, has set course records this season at Saratoga Park, Proctor Park and Van Cortlandt Park. In the Manhattan Invitational (at Van Cortlandt Park), Blood defeated Aislinn Ryan by 17 seconds. However, Ryan (who was hampered by an infected toe at Manhattan) previously won the nationally prominent Great American Race of Champions in North Carolina and beat Blood by 34 seconds. Ryan, who was a Footlocker Finalist last year, also set a new course record at the Bear Mountain race course.

The Class AA race also includes some other exceptionally talented runners such as Lindsey Ferguson (Saratoga, a Footlocker Finalist last year), Laura Cummings (Bay Shore, finished 4th at Footlocker Finals in 2002), Caitlin Lane (Saratoga), Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) and others.

 

 Girls Class A
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Queensbury        02      58        Queensbury             77
  2   Horace Greeley    01      89        Cornwall               92
  3   Cornwall          09      95        Horace Greeley         92
  4   Elmira Southside  04     121        Elmira Southside      103
  5   Bellport          11     124        Victor                137
  6   Victor            05     148        New Hartford          138
  7   New Hartford      03     149        Bellport              141
  8   Mepham            08     150        Lake Shore            149
  9   Lake Shore        06     157        Mepham                153
  10  Massena           10     325
		
Post-Race Comment ... Queensbury won as expected with Cornwall edging Horace Greeley (better 6th-place finisher) ... Brittany Sheffey (Bellport) was the impressive individual winner with Jillian King (Scotia-Glenville) and Lynne Mundy (Cornwall) 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury is the favorite to win the Class A title ... they defeated a very good Scotia-Glenville team at sectionals ... Horace Greeley and Cornwall appear closely matched for second with Elmira Southside and Bellport not far behind.

Individual Race ... Close competition between Lynne Mundy (Cornwall), Brittany Sheffey (Bellport), and three Scotia-Glenville runners (Danielle Schaub and sisters Jillian and Caroline King ... third sister Keelan King is not far back).

 

 Girls Class B
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Honeoye FL        05      55        Honeoye FL             55
  2   East Aurora       06      65        East Aurora            56
  3   Pearl River       01      79        Pearl River            70
  4   Saranac Lake      07     105        Saranac Lake          120
  5   Westhill          03     122        Maine Endwell         138
  6   Maine-Endwell     04     152        Westhampton           165
  7   Westhampton       11     185        Westhill              167
  8   Manhasset         08     222        Canton                205
  9   Onteora           09     243        Manhasset             217
  10  Canton            10     244        Onteora               252
  11  Cohoes            02     268        Cohoes                272
		
Post-Race Comment ... I thought improving East Aurora would make it close and they did, but Honeoye Falls-Lima was just good enough to continue their streak of State championships ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) and Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) ran one-two as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima is the defending State Class B champion and the favorite to repeat ... they have been State champions in every year since 1998 ... Improving East Aurora could challenge for the top spot with Pearl River is also in contention.

Individual Race ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) is the odds-on favorite to win the individual title with Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) a solid choice to be second.

 

 Girls Class C
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich         02      45        Bronxville             58
  2   Bronxville        01      68        Greenwich              71
  3   Canastota         03      81        Canastota              95
  4   Thomas Edison     04     105        Thomas Edison         108
  5   Rhinebeck         09     106        Rhinebeck             110
  6   Attica            05     120        Attica                112
  7   Akron             06     154        Akron                 137
  8   Potsdam           10     268        Hampton Bays          239
  9   Ticonderoga       07     268        Potsdam               272
  10  Carle Place       08     283        Carle Place           286
  11  Hampton Bays      11     285        Ticonderoga           298
		
Post-Race Comment ... In typical fashion, Bronxville rose to the occasion and ran well - they took advantage of a "less-than-peak" performance by Greenwich ... Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit Valley) found the Chenango Valley race course well-suited to her running style and won impressively ... Emily Fung (Greenwich) finished second.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich is the favorite to win Class C in 2004 ... Bronxville (a Class D team last year) could contend for the top position ... Canastota upset the defending State champion Skaneateles in the Section 3 championships ... Greenwich became strong this season due to the transfer of several runners from Argyle - however, I have been told that one runner (and perhaps two) may not be running for Greenwich the rest of the season, so the score above may get closer.

Individual Race ... The individual favorite is freshmen Emily Fung (Greenwich, one of the Argyle transfers) ... Emily finished second in the Class D race at last year’s State Meet ... Sophomore Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit Valley), Kylee Jordan (Lansing, third at last year’s State Meet) and Jessica O’Neill (Skaneateles, fifth in last year’s State Meet) are also top contenders.

 

 Girls Class D
 

                             Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect   Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====   =====       ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River      03      27        Beaver River           23
  2   Duanesburg        02      71        Duanesburg             53
  3   Randolph          06     108        Randolph              112
  4   Geneseo           05     119        Geneseo               126
  5   Seton Catholic    07     156        Moravia               164
  6   Norwood-Norfolk   10     163        Millbrook             172
  7   Moravia           04     165        Norwood Norfolk       173
  8   Millbrook         09     186        Seton Catholic        180
  9   East Rockaway     08     226        East Rockaway         219
  10  Shelter Island    11     240        Shelter Island        236
		
Post-Race Comment ... Beaver River well as expected (they even finished 10th in the overall merge) ... Lindsay Kahn (Port Jefferson) out-kicked Nana Sang Bender (Onondaga) in the home-stretch to win with Wendy Pavlus (Tupper Lake) and Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) close behind.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the odds-on favorite to win the Class D title ... they finished second last year to Argyle (the second best team in NY in 2003; Saratoga was the best).

Individual Race ... The individual race is a close match-up between seniors Nana Sang Bender (Onondaga) and Lindsay Kahn (Port Jefferson) with Wendy Pavlus (Tupper Lake) and Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) also in contention.