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| NYSPHSAA State Meet 2004 - Projections (and Actual Scores) |
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 9, 2004 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... Actual Scores added Nov. 13, 2004 |
Actual Scores added Nov. 13, 2004
| Boys Class AA |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 03 33 FM 32
2 Lockport 06 59 Lockport 54
3 Saratoga 02 88 Saratoga Springs 74
4 Warwick 09 122 Warwick Valley 137
5 Syosset 08 125 Syosset 145
6 North Rockland 01 140 Rush Henrietta 148
7 Rush-Henrietta 05 169 North Rockland 157
8 Ithaca 04 184 Ithaca 181
9 Smithtown 11 199 Smithtown 194
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... This race went close to expectations ... an
improving Lockport team has closed the gap somewhat on FM
... Saratoga continues to show they are a very good team ... Ryan
Sheridan (Walt Whitman) won the race handily with John Martinez
(North Rockland) running his best race of the year to be 2nd and Kevin Tschirhart
(Northport) 3rd ... Jared Burdick (7th) was FM's top
finisher ... Mark Russell (Lockport, 9th) finished ahead of three
FM scorers and three other Lockport runners broke into
FM's top five. Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius (FM) is the #1 ranked team in the
nation and is the favorite to win the Class AA title ... FM has
accomplished some remarkable feats this season in sweeping the top five
places at celebrated meets such as the Manhattan Invitational (and going
1-2-4-5-7 at McQuaid) ... Nationally ranked Lockport (#9 nation, #3
Northeast US) could be capable of finishing close to FM ...
Lockport is improving, but they probably want to peak at Federations
where an NTN (Nike Team Nationals) invitation could be at stake ...
Saratoga has run very well this season (they beat reigning State
champion Shenendehowa at sectionals) ... Warwick and Syosset
appear very closely matched ... Syosset has two top runners named
"Tully" so you know they're good! |
| Boys Class A |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Burnt Hills 02 40 Burnt Hills 36
2 Tappan Zee 01 65 Kenmore East 97
3 Lynbrook 08 118 Victor 99
4 Victor 05 140 Tappan Zee 101
5 Kenmore East 06 143 Lynbrook 135
6 Cornwall 09 154 Corcoran 149
7 Sayville 11 157 Sayville 150
8 Corcoran 03 158 Vestal 162
Cornwall 167
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... Burnt Hills won as predicted, but Kenmore
East and Victor ran much better than expected ... Tappan
Zee did not have have their best race ... Ken Little (Burnt Hills),
Charles White (Garden City), Shamus Nally (Burnt Hills),
Mike Dobmeier (Williamsville North), and Tony DeRobertis (Tappan Zee)
were the top five finishers. Pre-Race Analysis ... At last year's State Meet, Tappan Zee edged Burnt Hills by three points to win the Class B title (both teams are now Class A due to the new five-class system) ... Burnt Hills competed very well in the highly competitive Suburban Council league of Section 2 (mostly Class AA teams) and is this year's favorite to win the Class A title ... Tappan Zee is capable of making this much closer than the score above indicates with a top team effort. Individual Race ... Looks like close competition between a number of runners that include Ken Little (Burnt Hills), Charles White (Garden City), Tony DeRobertis (Tappan Zee), Steve Soprano (Queensbury), Shamus Nally (Burnt Hills) and Mike Dobmeier (Williamsville North). |
| Boys Class B |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Somers 01 34 Somers 42
2 Holland Patent 03 80 Shoreham Wading 82
3 Shoreham-Wading 11 99 Holland Patent 88
4 East Aurora 06 104 East Aurora 112
5 Honeoye FL 05 133 Honeoye FL 116
6 Cobleskill-Rich 02 158 Canton 147
7 Peru 07 189 Onteora 184
8 Maine-Endwell 04 195 Peru 204
9 Canton 10 209 Maine Endwell 205
10 Onteora 09 224 Cobleskill Rich 213
11 Seaford 08 244 Seaford 290
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... The top five teams ran fairly close to
expectations, although Shoreham Wading River outscored Holland
Patent ... Canton and Onteora ran better than
predicted ... Dan Busby (New Paltz) won the individual race with
an outstanding performance (his familiarity with the course probably
helped) ... Noel Bateman
(Aquinas), Geary Gubbins (Southampton), and Dave Raucci
(Red Hook) were next finishers. Pre-Race Analysis ... Somers is a solid favorite to win the Class B title (Coach Tim Fulton's team has been running very well) ... Holland Patent improved continually over the last part of the season to win the Section 3 title (so who knows) ... Shoreham Wading River and East Aurora also appear capable of finishing second with top efforts. Individual Race ... Class B is another very competitive individual race ... top runners include Dan Busby (New Paltz, who transferred from Seton Catholic in Section 4 to New Paltz this year), Alex Bean (Somers), Dave Raucci (Red Hook), Ryan Hays (Shoreham Wading River), Geary Gubbins (Southampton), Noel Bateman (Aquinas) and Trevor Rundell (Honeoye Falls-Lima). |
| Boys Class C |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 03 72 Sauquoit Valley 57
2 Rhinebeck 09 96 Dansville 107
3 Ticonderoga 07 105 Ticonderoga 109
4 Pawling 01 117 Rhinebeck 123
5 Dansville 05 128 Pawling 133
6 Fonda Fultonville 02 139 Fonda Fultonville 143
7 Delhi 04 158 Wheatley 158
8 Wheatley 08 168 Delhi 165
9 Wilson 06 171 Wilson 167
10 Potsdam 10 247 Potsdam 229
11 Mattituck 11 315 Mattituck 327
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... Sauquoit Valley won pretty much as expected
(the final score was dependent on team health) ... Dansville
finished better than predicted with a very good effort ... Individually,
Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey) ran his best race of the year to win
impressively ... Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and John Nicotera
(Sauquoit Valley) were 2nd and 3rd. Pre-Race Analysis ... Sauquoit Valley is the favorite to re-capture the Class C title (they were the 2002 champions) ... Sauquoit Valley edged Tully (ranked #2 in the State) by only three points at sectionals when Sauquoit's number two runner (Steve Stedman) was unable to finish the race). Individual Race ... Seniors Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and John Nicotera (Sauquoit Valley) are the favorites to win the individual title ... Nicotera ran his best race of the year in winning sectionals ... Corey Robinson (Greece Odyssey), Matt O'Connor (Rhinebeck) and others are closely matched for top five finishing positions. |
| Boys Class D |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Tupper Lake 07 48 Berne-Knox-West 43
2 Berne-Knox-West 02 55 Tupper Lake 56
3 Oakfield-Alabama 05 95 Oakfield Alabama 86
4 Beaver River 03 117 Beaver River 119
5 Marathon 04 139 Marathon 161
6 Barker 06 170 Barker 176
7 Norwood-Norfolk 10 188 Port Jefferson 180
8 Port Jefferson 11 201 Norwood Norfolk 199
9 Millbrook *** 09 227 Keio 203
10 Keio 01 232 Eldred *** 215
11 East Rockaway 08 284 East Rockaway 304
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... Berne-Knox-Westerlo's #3, #4 and #5 runners
did exactly what was needed to win ... the rest of the race went pretty
much to form ... Eldred represented Section 9 (not Millbrook as I
used in the prediction) ... Christian Thompson
(Candor) out-finished Leo Smith (East Rochester) in good
individual race. Pre-Race Analysis ... This was one of the more interesting races from a computer simulation point-of-view ... Tupper Lake and Berne-Knox-Westerlo are the clear favorites with the edge going Tupper Lake overall ... however, Berne-Knox-Westerlo did well in some simulations because this race appears very sensitive to the placement of the #3, #4 and #5 runners (all teams), so that's where this race may be decided. Individual Race ... Sophomore Christian Thompson (Candor) is the top rated Class D individual ... contenders include Erik Van Ingen (Marathon) and Leo Smith (East Rochester, 3rd at last year’s State Meet to Lopez Lomong and Dominic Luka). |
| Girls Class AA |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Saratoga 02 22 Saratoga Springs 18
2 Bay Shore 11 82 Bay Shore 85
3 Hilton 05 93 Hilton 87
4 CNS 03 95 CNS 104
5 Suffern 01 116 Suffern 104
6 Monroe-Woodbury 09 155 Orchard Park 167
7 Orchard Park 06 168 Monroe Woodbury 170
8 Corning 04 220 Corning 213
9 East Meadow 08 235 East Meadow 219
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... The prediction was close ... Bay Shore
edged Hilton by two points - Hilton's Amanda Griggs (6th
team finisher, usually higher) was limping noticeably after the race, so
the top five Hilton runners ran very well ... CNS ran
without injured Alicia Finger (usually their #3 or #4 runner) ... Nicole Blood (Saratoga)
out-finished
Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley) in another outstanding match-up - Nicole Blood's
winning time of 17:40.4 is only five seconds off Molly Huddle's
(Elmira Notre Dame) 2001 course record of 17:35.0 (but the courses are
slightly different and the course was not in perfect condition after the
rain and snow). Pre-Race Analysis ... This race has incredible talent ... Saratoga is the #1 ranked team in the nation ... Bay Shore (#6 nation, #2 Northeast US), Cicero-North Syracuse (#6 Northeast US), Bethlehem (#7 Northeast US, but NOT in the State Meet) and Hilton (#10 Northeast US) are also highly ranked by NTN (Nike Team National ... In my opinion, they should all be the top five Northeast) ... In terms of national ranking for other NY teams, Saratoga is so good they make other outstanding teams look not-so-good ... This Saratoga team is probably the best high school girls team ever. Hilton is a slight question mark because top runner Amanda Griggs is coming off an early-October injury ... she ran at sectionals (finishing 4th team-wise) and is hoping to regain top form by Federations ... the Hilton score above reflects her running well at States ... CNS and Hilton are closely matched, so it could go either way between them ... and both are not that far behind an excellent Bay Shore team ... Suffern is also an excellent team. Individual Race ... The
individual Class AA race has one of the marquee match-ups of the State
Meet that features junior Nicole Blood (Saratoga) and junior
Aislinn Ryan (Warwick Valley). Nicole Blood, a Footlocker
Finalist the past two years, has set course records this season at
Saratoga Park, Proctor Park and Van Cortlandt Park. In the Manhattan
Invitational (at Van Cortlandt Park), Blood defeated Aislinn Ryan
by 17 seconds. However, Ryan (who was hampered by an infected toe at
Manhattan) previously won the nationally prominent Great American Race
of Champions in North Carolina and beat Blood by 34 seconds. Ryan, who
was a Footlocker Finalist last year, also set a new course record at the
Bear Mountain race course. |
| Girls Class A |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Queensbury 02 58 Queensbury 77
2 Horace Greeley 01 89 Cornwall 92
3 Cornwall 09 95 Horace Greeley 92
4 Elmira Southside 04 121 Elmira Southside 103
5 Bellport 11 124 Victor 137
6 Victor 05 148 New Hartford 138
7 New Hartford 03 149 Bellport 141
8 Mepham 08 150 Lake Shore 149
9 Lake Shore 06 157 Mepham 153
10 Massena 10 325
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... Queensbury won as expected with Cornwall
edging Horace Greeley (better 6th-place finisher) ... Brittany Sheffey
(Bellport) was the impressive individual winner with Jillian King
(Scotia-Glenville) and Lynne Mundy (Cornwall) 2nd and 3rd,
respectively. Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury is the favorite to win the Class A title ... they defeated a very good Scotia-Glenville team at sectionals ... Horace Greeley and Cornwall appear closely matched for second with Elmira Southside and Bellport not far behind. Individual Race ... Close competition between Lynne Mundy (Cornwall), Brittany Sheffey (Bellport), and three Scotia-Glenville runners (Danielle Schaub and sisters Jillian and Caroline King ... third sister Keelan King is not far back). |
| Girls Class B |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Honeoye FL 05 55 Honeoye FL 55
2 East Aurora 06 65 East Aurora 56
3 Pearl River 01 79 Pearl River 70
4 Saranac Lake 07 105 Saranac Lake 120
5 Westhill 03 122 Maine Endwell 138
6 Maine-Endwell 04 152 Westhampton 165
7 Westhampton 11 185 Westhill 167
8 Manhasset 08 222 Canton 205
9 Onteora 09 243 Manhasset 217
10 Canton 10 244 Onteora 252
11 Cohoes 02 268 Cohoes 272
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... I thought improving East Aurora would
make it close and they did, but
Honeoye Falls-Lima was just good enough to continue their
streak of State championships ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson)
and Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) ran one-two as expected. Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima is the defending State Class B champion and the favorite to repeat ... they have been State champions in every year since 1998 ... Improving East Aurora could challenge for the top spot with Pearl River is also in contention. Individual Race ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) is the odds-on favorite to win the individual title with Liz Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) a solid choice to be second. |
| Girls Class C |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Greenwich 02 45 Bronxville 58
2 Bronxville 01 68 Greenwich 71
3 Canastota 03 81 Canastota 95
4 Thomas Edison 04 105 Thomas Edison 108
5 Rhinebeck 09 106 Rhinebeck 110
6 Attica 05 120 Attica 112
7 Akron 06 154 Akron 137
8 Potsdam 10 268 Hampton Bays 239
9 Ticonderoga 07 268 Potsdam 272
10 Carle Place 08 283 Carle Place 286
11 Hampton Bays 11 285 Ticonderoga 298
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... In typical fashion, Bronxville rose to
the occasion and ran well - they took advantage of a "less-than-peak"
performance by Greenwich ... Samantha
Stedman (Sauquoit Valley) found the Chenango Valley race course
well-suited to her running style and won impressively ... Emily Fung
(Greenwich) finished second. Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich is the favorite to win Class C in 2004 ... Bronxville (a Class D team last year) could contend for the top position ... Canastota upset the defending State champion Skaneateles in the Section 3 championships ... Greenwich became strong this season due to the transfer of several runners from Argyle - however, I have been told that one runner (and perhaps two) may not be running for Greenwich the rest of the season, so the score above may get closer. Individual Race ... The individual favorite is freshmen Emily Fung (Greenwich, one of the Argyle transfers) ... Emily finished second in the Class D race at last year’s State Meet ... Sophomore Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit Valley), Kylee Jordan (Lansing, third at last year’s State Meet) and Jessica O’Neill (Skaneateles, fifth in last year’s State Meet) are also top contenders. |
| Girls Class D |
Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
=============== ==== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 03 27 Beaver River 23
2 Duanesburg 02 71 Duanesburg 53
3 Randolph 06 108 Randolph 112
4 Geneseo 05 119 Geneseo 126
5 Seton Catholic 07 156 Moravia 164
6 Norwood-Norfolk 10 163 Millbrook 172
7 Moravia 04 165 Norwood Norfolk 173
8 Millbrook 09 186 Seton Catholic 180
9 East Rockaway 08 226 East Rockaway 219
10 Shelter Island 11 240 Shelter Island 236
|
| Post-Race
Comment ... Beaver River well as expected (they even
finished 10th in the overall merge) ... Lindsay Kahn (Port
Jefferson) out-kicked Nana Sang Bender
(Onondaga) in the home-stretch to win with Wendy Pavlus
(Tupper Lake) and Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) close behind.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the odds-on favorite to win the Class D title ... they finished second last year to Argyle (the second best team in NY in 2003; Saratoga was the best). Individual Race ... The individual race is a close match-up between seniors Nana Sang Bender (Onondaga) and Lindsay Kahn (Port Jefferson) with Wendy Pavlus (Tupper Lake) and Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) also in contention. |