Predict Actual
School Sect Score School Score
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1 Saratoga 02-AA 24 Saratoga 22
2 Bay Shore 11-AA 147 Shenendehowa 142
3 Bethlehem 02-AA 152 Bethlehem 145
4 Hilton 05-AA 178 Bay Shore 148
5 Shenendehowa 02-AA 179 Hilton 151
6 CNS 03-AA 199 CNS 166
7 Columbia 02-AA 211 Ward Melville 231
8 Suffern 01-AA 213 Suffern 234
9 Ward Melville 11-AA 274 Honeoye FL 248
10 Honeoye FL 05-B 306 Pearl River 284
11 Warwick Valley 09-AA 310 East Aurora 301
12 East Aurora 06-B 341 Columbia 347
13 Queensbury 02-A 368 Warwick Valley 352
14 Pearl River 01-B 387 Queensbury 402
15 St. John Bapt CHSAA 408 Beaver River 420
16 Horace Greeley 01-A 432 St. John Bapt 462
17 St. Anthonys CHSAA 482 Horace Greeley 466
18 Nardin Academy CHSAA 490 Sacred Heart 478
19 Sacred Heart CHSAA 502 St. Anthony's 485
20 Beaver River 03-D 505 Nardin Academy 509
21 Kellenberg CHSAA 578 Kellenberg 573
22 St. Peters CHSAA 601 Boys & Girls 619
23 Boys & Girls PSAL 621 Mckee/SI Tech 646
24 Jamaica PSAL 640 Jamaica 667
25 Horace Mann AIS 691 St. Peter's 706
26 Dewitt Clinton PSAL 702 Horace Mann 745
27 McKee/SI Tech PSAL 715 DeWitt Clinton 760
POST RACE Comments: ... Saratoga won easily as expected and placed all five scorers in the top ten overall finishers ... The race for 2nd place was very close with Shenendehowa edging-out Bethlehem, Bay Shore, Hilton and CNS - The race simulations indicated a real scramble for 2nd and that's exactly what happened (as noted in the pre-race analysis, Shenendehowa was finishing 2nd in a fair number of simulations) ... The simulated gap between Honeoye Falls and East Aurora materialized as projected (despite the close finish at the State Meet the week before) ... Pearl River scored much better than predicted (seasonal PRs by their top two runners) ... Beaver River also scored better than predicted (maybe Every NYPHSAA State Championship Team should get an automatic bid to Federations) ... Individual Race - Incredibly fast performances by many runners - Nicole Blood and Aislinn Ryan destroyed the course record with remarkable times ... Hannah Davidson (3rd) keeps improving (and is a serious contender for Footlockers) ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson), one of several more Footlocker contenders, ran well as predicted ... The biggest surprise was the 5th-place finish by freshman Kristen Reese (Carmel) - she's shown excellent ability in both track and XC, but this performance is a big PR ... The individual talent in NY is incredible.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is one of the most confusing races I've ever simulated
...
The only constant in the millions of races that were simulated is that
Saratoga won every race - even when I programmed in a random
occurrence where the top runner did not finish (for whatever reason) ...
There are several reasons for the confusion:
(1) How to handle teams with injured
runners? ... It's easier not knowing about injuries ... Both
Hilton and CNS have injuries to significant runners (I don't
know their exact status, but it might not make any difference if I did
know) ... and now I've been told that one of the Bethlehem girls
is out with an injury ... I try to simulate this by running race
simulations with a combination of variables (the runner does not run,
the runner runs poorly, the runner runs normally).
(2) Variability ... this race has
huge variability that can cause big swings in team scoring ... Obviously
the injury factor above can do that all by itself, but this race does it
without any injury considerations! ... Variability starts with each
individual - each runner performs over a range of speed (it is not an
exact constant as the overall speed rating on the leaderboard might lead
some people to believe ... it varies from race to race, and that's what
all the race simulations are about).
The top teams in this race have many individual runners closely matched in terms of speed ... when variability is simulated in this race, many runners are rising or falling by typically 10 to 20 finishing positions from race to race and that really effects the team scoring.
Here are some specifics ... Shenendehowa (5th above) finished 2nd in a fair number race simulations as did Hilton and Bethlehem ... I was surprised that Honeoye Falls had a significant gap on East Aurora when they were so close at States (both race and merge) - part of the reason seems to be HFL's top runner is constantly finishing above the large pack of evenly-matched runners, and that really helps the team score in this quality race.
When Bay Shore runs well, they usually finish 2nd in the simulations (they did not run their best at States) ... But with possible NTN bids coming, this should be a great team race.
Individual Race ... Nicole Blood (Saratoga) versus Aislinn Ryan (Warwick) Round Four ... Nicole Blood has a two-to-one lead in races won this season ... Nicole just won States at Chenango Valley and previously won Manhattan (2.5 mile race) ... Aislinn won the Great American in late September ... Bowdoin Park is quite different from the Chenango Valley golf course, but I'm not certain which runner Bowdoin Park favors this year ( Nicole Blood has run very well at Bowdoin in the past) ... If I were the odds-maker for this race, Nicole Blood would be the favorite based on recent race results.
After Blood and Ryan, this race is loaded with outstanding individual talent ... Saratoga's Lindsey Ferguson, Hannah Davidson and Caitlin Lane will likely finish in the top ten (and Karyn Delay could be close) ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) blistered the VVS course at the Section 3 Championships (she was 7th at Federations last year and 9th at Footlocker NE) ... Laura Cummings (Bay Shore) is consistently good (she finished 4th at Footlocker Nationals two years ago) ... Katie DiCamillo (Holy Trinity) has been easily winning the CHSAA races (to go along with an excellent 4th at the Manhattan Eastern States Championship) ... Brittany Sheffey (Bellport) was an impressive winner at States (Class A), but is not entered to run.