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Footlocker Finals 2004 - Preview & Projections:
| Purpose ... The previews and
projections below are intended to provide a brief overview of the
Footlocker Finals with respect to the following: (1) runners in
the races and (2) where they might finish based on how fast
they've been running relative to other runners. The ratings below do NOT have precise accuracy (although it may appear that way) ... they are approximations based on results one or more recent races for each runner ... I consider the ratings (for this type of national race) to be similar the track & field seedings ... and with extremely rare exception, results of track races are never the same (exactly) as the seedings (some runners may have great races and others poor races). Note ... This applies to both boys and girls below ... Each race has a few runners who appear to be the favorites ... However, the majority of runners are remarkably close in speed ... so the margins-of-error overlap enormously for the projected finishing places (expect some significant differences in the actual results). |
| GIRLS - Footlocker Finals Preview & Projection |
| Marie Lawrence ... I think Marie Lawrence is the favorite to win ... She finished second last year as a freshman, and she appears to be stronger and faster this year ... Marie won the West regional by 18 seconds over Zoe Nelson (the 2002 Footlocker champion), and has been running some fast times during the season ... she has demonstrated ability over the Balboa course and experience with the demands required for a Footlocker finalist. Ramsey Kavan ... I could easily make Ramsey Kavan a co-favorite to win ... speed-wise, she is equal to anybody in the field, she just won NTN impressively (defeating Nicole Blood and Brie Felnagle), and she is undefeated this season ... finished a very good 6th at last year's Footlocker Finals and appears to be better this year ... she has speed, experience and top current form - could definitely become the 2004 champion. Nicole Blood ... Most people know I'm a Nicole Blood fan ... she has experience in winning national titles, such as the AOC Outdoor Track One Mile (4:42.40) and the NIC Indoor One Mile (4:46.13) ... This year, she set XC course records at some great venues (Bowdoin Park, Van Cortlandt Park, Saratoga State Park and others) ... Her speed ratings are second to nobody ... This is Nicole's third trip to Footlocker Finals, so experience is no problem ... However, she has raced on the Balboa course twice, and both races were mediocre performances (although some excuses are available) ... Two Footlocker entrants just beat Nicole at NTN (Ramsey Kavan and Brie Felnagle), but that was a very different course compared to Balboa ... Bottom-line, Nicole Blood is capable of winning Footlockers, but it will take a top performance to beat this talented field. Aislinn Ryan ... I really hate to jinx anybody, but here goes - Aislinn Ryan is my dark-horse choice to win Footlockers ... her speed ratings are in line with the favorites (technically, she has the highest individual speed rating of anybody (168) and that occurred at Great American) ... She won the Great American Race of Champions by 27 seconds over Whitney Anderson and by 34 seconds over Nicole Blood ... Since Great American, Aislinn Ryan was beaten by Nicole Blood in four races (Manhattan, NY States, NY Federations and Footlocker NE) ... So why do I think Ryan might win Footlocker Finals?? - For starters, this is her second trip to Footlockers and last year's experience (when she finished 12th) will really help ...Next, Aislinn Ryan is a much improved runner this year compared to last year ... I think the Balboa venue fits her running style very nicely ... my one concern would be her finishing speed in a stretch duel with the favorites. Whitney Anderson ... An outstanding runner ... Finished second at Footlocker Midwest, only 4 seconds behind Ramsey Kavan ... finished second at Great American (7 seconds ahead of Nicole Blood, but 27 behind Aislinn Ryan) ... had the fastest time at the Colorado State Meet ... a definite contender. Brianna Felnagle ... Appears to be be getting better and better with each race (and faster) ... She was an impressive, fast-closing second at NTN - had the fastest final 1000 meters of the entire field (3:29.26 which was 9 seconds faster than Nicole Blood and 1 second faster than Ramsey Kavan) ... She was an easy winner at the Washington-Oregon Border Clash. Katelyn Kaltenbach ... The defending Footlocker National Champion ... Katelyn Kaltenbach is coming off an injury - she was in a leg cast early in the XC season ... However, her two recent races indicate she is coming back quickly and strongly ... At NTN, she finished an excellent 4th (only 4 seconds behind Nicole Blood) ... I expect additional improvement at Footlocker Finals ... The speed projections have Kaltenbach finishing 7th; however, she's such an outstanding runner, she could definitely finish higher ... This is her third trip to Footlocker Finals and she obviously runs well over the course ... The concern is the lack of seasonal races and the loss of training due to injury, but don't count her out as a possible winner. Zoe Nelson ... The 2002 Footlocker National Champion ... Finished 8th last year ... was second at Footlocker West (18 seconds behind Marie Lawrence). Jennifer Barringer ... Finished an excellent third at last year's Footlocker Finals ... The projection has her finishing 12th this year - but the projection is considering only how fast she has run this year ... it's important to note that the rating is NOT a forecast of how fast she can run (just like a track seed time) ... Jennifer Barringer could finish much better than the projection (projection meaning a finish order based what they have done rather than what they might do). Other Saratoga Runners ... Lindsey Ferguson (26th at last year's Footlocker Finals), Hannah Davidson, and Caitlin Lane ... Only four Saratoga runner in the race?? ... Hannah Davidson improved through-out the year and could definitely finish in the top ten ... Look for an improved performance from Caitlin Lane (compared to NTN) - the weather occasionally causes some respiratory problems for Caitlin (for example, at NY States, the statement "felt like breathing through a straw" was used ... I suspect something similar happened at NTN). Some of the Other Northeast Runners ... In 2002, Laura Cummings finished 4th at Footlocker Finals (after finishing 7th at Footlocker NE) ... Nichole Lister is a very consistent runner who might really like the Balboa course (and finish highly in the team effort). The Team Score ... Good Grief ... The Northeast finishing third (with four Saratoga runners)??? ... I obviously did something wrong ... OR ... there's a lot of talent in this race! ... However, the top three teams are close enough that any of them might win.
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Projected Team Score ACTUAL SCORE
-------------------- ----------------
Midwest 37 Midwest 28
West 42 West 46
Northeast 47 Northeast 72
South 106 South 91
(Rating: 1 point = 3 seconds)
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Place Name Grade School or Home State Region Rating
----- ------------------ ----- ---------------- ----- ---------- ------
2 Ramsey Kavan 12 Yankton SD Midwest 164.8
4 Whitney Anderson 12 Summit CO Midwest 163.3
7 Katelyn Kaltenbach 12 Smoky Hill CO Midwest 157.3
10 Brittany Tinsley 12 Russelspoint OH Midwest 156.3
14 Keara Sammons 11 Smoky Hill CO Midwest 154.7
18 Madeline McKeever 12 Heritage CO Midwest 152.3
30 Allison Eckert 10 Sioux Falls SD Midwest 147.3
33 Elizabeth Yetzer 11 Lakeville MN Midwest 147.0
37 Rebekah Smeltzer 10 Monroe MI Midwest 146.0
38 Molly Waterhouse 9 Vicksburg MI Midwest 145.0
1 Marie Lawrence 10 Reno NV West 165.3
6 Brianna Felnagle 12 Bellarmine WA West 160.8
9 Zoe Nelson 12 Kalispell MT West 156.7
11 Alma Escobar 11 Corona CA West 156.0
15 Brook Lademan 12 Peninsula CA West 153.7
16 Lauren Saylor 10 Buchanan CA West 153.3
21 Kauren Tarver 9 Serrano CA West 151.3
23 Natasha Lebeaud 12 Folsom CA West 150.7
31 Tori Tyler 12 Gunn CA West 147.3
36 Crystal Reed 11 Fountain Valley CA West 146.4
3 Nicole Blood 11 Saratoga NY Northeast 163.8
5 Aislinn Ryan 11 Warwick Valley NY Northeast 162.1
8 Hannah Davidson 9 Saratoga NY Northeast 157.1
13 Nichole Lister 12 South Jefferson NY Northeast 154.8
17 Lindsey Ferguson 11 Saratoga NY Northeast 152.3
19 Caitlin Lane 9 Saratoga NY Northeast 151.6
20 Laura Cummings 12 Bay Shore NY Northeast 151.3
24 Kathleen Dicamillo 12 Holy Trinity NY Northeast 150.1
29 Chantelle Dron 12 Candia NH Northeast 147.7
35 Brittany Sedberry 11 Beesleys Point NJ Northeast 146.7
12 Jennifer Barringer 12 Oviedo FL South 155.7
22 Jillian Skinner 12 Brentwood TN South 151.0
25 Carmen Mims 12 Louisville KY South 150.0
26 Melissa Dewey 12 Alexandria VA South 149.0
27 Kate Niehaus 11 Columbia SC South 149.0
28 Brooke Upshaw 11 Southlake TX South 148.0
32 Aurora Scott 9 Portsmouth VA South 147.3
34 Kelly Parrish 11 Ocala FL South 147.0
39 Carlene Mayfield 11 Grapevine TX South 144.3
40 Miranda Walker 11 Southlake TX South 140.4
|
| BOYS - Footlocker Finals Preview & Projection |
| There appear to be several runners fairly evenly rated as potential favorites - they include Andrew Bumbalough, Chris Barnicle, Sean McNamara, Jeff See, Levi Fox and others ... This could be a very interesting race amongst the top runners. Andrew Bumbalough ... Has the highest individual rating of all runners ... Last year, that distinction went to Matt Withrow (who won Footlockers ... however, Withrow had a bigger gap between himself and Galen Rupp than Bumbalough has on his competition) ... Bumbalough was an impressive 15 second winner over Scott MacPherson at Footlocker South, and in the process, broke Alan Webb's course record by 11 seconds ... Bumbalough finished 13th at last year's Footlocker Finals, so he has experience over the course ... He ran a national best 8:49.87 two-miler at Arcadia last spring ... Speed-wise, Andrew Bumbalough is the Footlocker favorite. Chris Barnicle ... Was a very impressive winner at Footlocker NE ... half-way through the race, he was running with a fairly large lead pack - in the next mile and a quarter, he blew open a big lead and then coasted to the finish an easy winner ... according to his DyeStat interview, he's saving his "crazy kick" for San Diego ... Barnicle missed qualifying last year due to lost training time due to injury ... This year he's confident in his ability to "take it" all ... And based on what I saw at Footlocker NE, I agree with him. Sean McNamara ... His winning NTN performance says Sean McNamara can win Footlocker Finals ... my NTN rating for McNamara was higher than ratings from his previous races ... perhaps I under-rated him somewhat, but I believe he just ran faster at NTN because the competition was there (and it hadn't been before) ... which also suggests he may run even faster with this Footlocker competition ... York proved they were the best team in the nation ... Do Not be surprised if Sean McNamara proves he's the best individual runner in the nation as well. Jeff See ... I wonder if everybody in the Midwest will agree with the projection of putting Sean McNamara ahead of Jeff See?? ... Of course the projection has McNamara (203.8) and See (202.7) which means McNamara is rated only 3.3 seconds faster than See (and 3 seconds in XC is very small) ... So the Midwest has at least two serious contenders to win Footlockers (make that three counting Levi Fox). Levi Fox ... Finished only one second behind Jeff See at Footlocker Midwest. Brandon Bethke ... California State champion (Div 1, fastest time at the meet) ... a very good second at NTN ... Just a hunch, but the Balboa course may be better suited to him than the NTN course. Scott MacPherson ... second to Andrew Bumbalough at Footlocker South (16 seconds behind) ... Fastest time at the Texas State Meet ... and Chris Barnicle considers him a serious contender. Team Score ... Looks like the Midwest will win again ... (and since I usually under-rate the Midwest, their score will likely be lower).
|
Projected Team Score ACTUAL SCORE
-------------------- ----------------
Midwest 36 West 32
Northeast 47 Midwest 38
West 68 Northeast 73
South 76 South 93
(Rating: 1 point = 3 seconds)
----- ---------------- ----- ---------------- ----- ---------- ------
Place Name Grade School or Home State Region Rating
----- ---------------- ----- ---------------- ----- ---------- ------
3 Sean McNamara 12 York IL Midwest 203.8
4 Jeff See 12 Middletown OH Midwest 202.7
5 Levi Fox 12 Troy OH Midwest 202.3
10 Mohamad Ige 11 Denver CO Midwest 200.7
14 John Black 12 Bloomfield Hills MI Midwest 199.3
20 Justin Switzer 12 Waterford MI Midwest 198.1
22 Chris Rombough 12 Fremont WI Midwest 197.8
29 John McGuire 12 Golden CO Midwest 196.3
31 Daniel Roberts 11 Vicksburg MI Midwest 196.2
37 Matthew Dettman 11 York IL Midwest 194.2
2 Chris Barnicle 12 Newton MA Northeast 203.9
9 Cory Thorne 12 Portsmouth NH Northeast 200.8
11 Bobby Papazian 12 Pittstown NJ Northeast 200.6
12 Ryan Sheridan 10 Walt Whitman NY Northeast 200.5
13 Kevin Tschirhart 12 Northport NY Northeast 200.4
16 Jeff Weiss 12 Avella PA Northeast 198.8
17 John Martinez 12 North Rockland NY Northeast 198.7
18 Craig Miller 11 Lancaster PA Northeast 198.7
38 Tommy Gruenewald 10 FM NY Northeast 192.5
40 Andrew McCann 11 FM NY Northeast 187.8
6 Brandon Bethke 12 El Toro CA West 201.2
7 Ken Cormier 12 Douglas AZ West 201.1
15 Yosef Ghebray 12 Pleasanton CA West 199.3
19 Diego Mercado 11 West Covina CA West 198.7
23 Mark Matusak 12 Torrance CA West 197.7
26 A.J. Acosta 11 Oceanside CA West 197.3
27 Robbie Barany 12 Eisenhower WA West 197.2
28 Kenny Klotz 11 Beaverton OR West 196.7
30 Riley Booker 11 San Diego CA West 196.3
36 Jake Schmitt 12 Kentfield CA West 195.3
1 Andrew Bumbalough 12 Brentwood TN South 206.3
8 Scott MacPherson 12 Plano TX South 201.0
21 Justin Harbor 11 Palm Coast FL South 198.1
24 Andy Biladeau 12 Lutz FL South 197.4
25 Jack Bolas 11 Chapel Hill NC South 197.4
32 Daniel Lacava 12 Hurst TX South 196.2
33 Robert Bedsole 12 Bessemer AL South 196.1
34 Michael Eaton 11 Bowling Green KY South 196.0
35 Sandy Roberts 11 Raleigh NC South 195.9
39 Benjamin Schulz 12 The Woodlands TX South 189.6
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