Here's the bottom-line (no graphs or boring statistics) ... For the Girls - Holmdel (at MOC) was running about 10-12 seconds faster than Bowdoin (at Feds) ... Interestingly, that's exactly what some people on the DyeStat Forum were using to compare teams (and I agree with them) ... For the Boys - Holmdel (at MOC) was running 12-15 seconds faster than Bowdoin (at Feds) ... with either number, CBA-NJ ran better than Lockport.

Earlier in the season, there was a bigger time difference between the two courses ...  At Federations, Bowdoin was running faster than earlier (especially for the girls, but also for the boys) ... It's difficult to prove any explanation for the faster times at Bowdoin, but here's mine ... the weather conditions were actually great for distance runners (mid 40s, no wind, low barometric pressure, overcast, light showers) ... I also think the light rain gave a slight "cushion" effect to the harder ground (the few slippery spots did not hurt that many runners) ... the girls probably got a bigger advantage than the boys because they ran first ... But who knows for sure?  However, Bowdoin was faster this year than last (about 3 seconds for the boys, and 6 to 9 seconds for the girls).

For starters, I have nothing to do with the NTN selection process and have not discussed the rankings with anybody who is part of the selection process (these are just some thoughts) ... Roxbury NJ was moved into the #2 position ... Roxbury won the NJ MOC impressively and had a team average time of 19:20.6 ... adding 12 seconds (for the Holmdel  - Bowdoin time difference) yields 19:32.6 ... as seen in the table below, only Bay Shore had a better team average time (I'm excluding Saratoga because they live in another universe) ... and inserting the Roxbury girls into the Federation race, they appear equal overall to the NY teams being considered below ... Therefore, I have no complaints of Roxbury being ranked #2 ... At the beginning of the season, I did not believe any New Jersey girls team would be at the level of a Bethlehem or Bay Shore ... Based on that, Roxbury should compete quite well at NTN.

Why was Bethlehem ranked #3 and Bay Shore #4?? ... Good question - I don't know actual thinking of the NTN committee ... But the Federation Meet team score indicates some considerations about team scoring ... Shenendehowa (142), Bethlehem (145), Bay Shore (148) and Hilton (151) were separated by only 3 points each ... In a race with 27 teams, team scores are affected by the other teams in the race ... To show this effect, I removed all teams from the Federation scoring except the four teams above (this shows the results of a four-way head-to-head match-up) - the results are shown in the table below ... In this Four-Team match-up, Bethlehem (46) beats Bay Shore (52), Hilton (55) and Shenendehowa (57) which is a very different order than the 27-Team match-up ... the team average time order is also different than the 27-Team score ... So considering just the four teams, Bethlehem wins the team score ... Shenendehowa was not ranked previously (and that certainly did not help) ... In addition, Bethlehem beat Shenendehowa at both the Suburban Council and Section 2 Championships (maybe Shen should have moved their very good 7th-grader up to varsity before sectionals).

I hope both Bethlehem and Bay Shore get selected as At-Large teams to NTN ... I think they deserve it (but I'm not expecting it).

 

                Actual
              Federation Score    (Team Average Time)
           -------------------     -----------------
           Shenendehowa    142          19:38.9
           Bethlehem       145          19:34.9
           Bay Shore       148          19:29.1
           Hilton          151          19:37.5


              Four-Team Head-to-Head Team Score
  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           Team
                            Team         Time      Place   Score
                          ---------     -------    -----   -----
  Roxanne Wegman          Bethlehem     19:05.0      2       46
  Emily Malinowski        Bethlehem     19:08.4      3
  Kristin Kenney          Bethlehem     19:09.7      6
  Kristin Peck            Bethlehem     20:14.1      17
  Claire Luke             Bethlehem     20:17.0      18
  Megan Gallagher         Bethlehem     20:45.8      23
  Taylor Jackson          Bethlehem     21:21.4      26

  Laura Cummings          Bay Shore     18:14.5      1       52
  Lauren Schmidt          Bay Shore     19:09.2      5
  Callie Hogan            Bay Shore     19:51.6      13
  Mary Liz McCurdy        Bay Shore     19:51.6      14
  Pam O'Sullivan          Bay Shore     20:18.6      19
  Sarah McCurdy           Bay Shore     20:44.4      21
  Caitlin Knapp           Bay Shore     20:57.8      24

  Allison Sawyer          Hilton        19:09.1      4       55
  Shelby Herman           Hilton        19:13.3      7
  Ashley Jones            Hilton        19:15.0      8
  Laura Iafrati           Hilton        20:10.6      16
  Caroline Shultz         Hilton        20:19.4      20
  Veronica Griffiths      Hilton        21:57.4      27
  Caileen Childs          Hilton        23:16.0      28

  Jackie Gniewek          Shen          19:15.7      9       57
  Libby Babcock           Shen          19:25.5      10
  Tricia Wardwell         Shen          19:45.4      11
  Sarah Rogers            Shen          19:50.7      12
  Cara Janeczko           Shen          19:57.0      15
  Christine Sloat         Shen          20:44.7      22
  Chelsea Babcock         Shen          21:09.7      25