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| State Boys
Class D Team Prediction (11-7-2001) ... Too Close to Call ... Actual
(11-10-2001) |
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***
Click
Here for Past Performance Listings of All Teams
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Predicted Actual
Team Score Team Score
================ ===== =============== =====
Tully 60 (Sec 3) East Rochester 57
East Rochester 60 (Sec 5) Tully 59
Rhinebeck 121 (Sec 9) Rhinebeck 92
Berne-Knox-Westerlo 141 (Sec 2) Port Jefferson 128
Norwood-Norfolk 141 (Sec 10) Bronxville 146
Port Jefferson 141 (Sec 11) Norwood-Norfolk 150
Bronxville 145 (Sec 1) Berne-Knox-Wester 164
Frewsburg 183 (Sec 6) Marathon 177
Seton Catholic 183 (Sec 7) Seton Catholic 189
Marathon 183 (Sec 4) Frewsburg 228
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Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
============================================================
1 Andrew Whitbeck 11 East Rochester 16:08.8 190
4 Brian Smith 12 East Rochester 16:41.3 180
23 Leo Smith 9 East Rochester 17:24.7 165
35 Paul Buckner 12 East Rochester 17:37.2 161
38 Patrick Demay 10 East Rochester 17:40.6 160
52 Josh Pescini 11 East Rochester 18:09.8 150
79 Andrew Morabito 9 East Rochester 18:44.6 138
3 Lopez Lomong 10 Tully 16:21.0 186
14 Lief Brunet 11 Tully 17:13.0 169
19 Sean Rienhardt 11 Tully 17:20.1 167
29 Tom Caracci 11 Tully 17:29.2 164
39 Toby Dornton 12 Tully 17:44.0 159
49 Jesse Burke 12 Tully 18:05.4 152
69 Bennett Hillenbrand 10 Tully 18:30.3 143
5 Kane Seamon 11 Richfield Springs 16:49.6 177
33 Zane Buckingham 12 Beaver River 17:35.8 161
34 Ben Dever 11 New York Mills 17:36.5 161
36 Kevin McCormick 10 Utica Notre Dame 17:39.9 160
45 Justin Munger 8 Beaver River 17:57.4 154
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| Post-Race Comment:
The race was as close as it looked on paper ... both teams ran well
... East Rochester was two points better and are a deserving
champion ... Tully can be proud of their performance since
the guys ran as hard as they could ... Andrew Whitbeck and Lopez
Lomong ran great races ... and congratulations to Tully for
being selected to compete in Federations - in the State Meet Boys
team merge, Tully was 7th which qualified them for Federations
(Liverpool was 2nd and Sauquoit was 3rd) ... the FM boys were also
selected to Federations.
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| Pre-Race Analysis:
I now have complete
sectional class results for all sections ... I ran some more
complete race simulations and it really didn't change anything ...
so the predicted scores have not changed ... if you want to split
hairs, Tully was winning the predictive simulations by about 1 point
on average ... since the margin of error is roughly six points, that
one point is meaningless.
I already knew the match-up between Tully
and East Rochester was close ... my speed ratings predict
these teams are even-up with little advantage to either team overall
... Rhinebeck is a slight choice for third with four teams very
closely matched just behind (Berne-Knox-Westerlo, Norwood-Norfolk,
Port Jefferson and Bronxville).
The individual race between
team-scoring runners is also close ... Brendan Sullivan (Port
Jefferson) and Andrew Whitback (East Rochester) have slightly
higher ratings than Brian Smith (East Rochester), Lopez
Lomong (Tully) and Matt DeShane (Norwood-Norfolk) ... Brendan
Sullivan finished 3rd at States in 2000 and 4th in 1999
...
Good Luck to All Teams!
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| State Boys
Class A Team Prediction (11-7-2001) ... Actual
(11-10-2001) |
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**
Click Here for Past Performance Listings for All Class A Teams **
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Predicted Actual
Team Score Team Score
================ ===== =============== =====
Saratoga 49 (Sec 2) Saratoga 62
Liverpool 69 (Sec 3) Liverpool 63
Warwick 105 (Sec 9) Churchville-Chili 94
Churchville-Chili 105 (Sec 5) Northport 107
Ithaca 144 (Sec 4) Warwick 141
Northport 144 (Sec 11) Ithaca 144
North Rockland 147 (Sec 1) North Rockland 151
Syosset 159 (Sec 8) Frontier 168
Frontier 169 (Sec 6) Syosset 189
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Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
============================================================
1 Peter Meindl 12 Orchard Park 15:38.6 200
4 Dan McKenna 11 Liverpool 16:10.3 190
14 Dave Masse 12 FM 16:38.4 181
30 Jeff Belge 11 Central Square 16:58.0 174
31 Chris Nolan 12 Liverpool 17:00.0 173
35 Bryan Buchanan 10 CNS 17:04.8 172
40 Tim Caiazza 12 Liverpool 17:10.1 170
43 Charley Cook 12 Liverpool 17:11.1 170
46 Andre Atchitson 12 Liverpool 17:14.8 168
51 Andrew Walsh 12 Liverpool 17:18.8 167
57 Mike Snihur 10 Liverpool 17:25.6 165
59 Jarrett Morgan 12 FM 17:29.1 164
72 Patrick Stagnitta 10 CNS 17:41.3 160
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| Post-Race Comment:
Sometimes you really need to watch the finish of a race carefully to
know who won ... I was at the finish line and walked away believing
Saratoga had won easily - I was wrong because there were many
individual (non-team) runners inter-mixed with the Saratoga
and Liverpool runners ... Liverpool put seven runners in
front of Saratoga's fifth (which I didn't realize until I saw the
result print-out) ... Liverpool's depth almost won the day ... Dan
McKenna ran a super race and is certainly one of the elite
runners in NY State ... Liverpool represented Section 3 very well.
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| Pre-Race Analysis:
Based on the speed ratings in the past performance listing, Saratoga
is the favorite to win Class A ... Saratoga ran very well in their
last two meets. Liverpool is also running very
well and appears to be peaking at the right time ... they were
especially impressive at the Section 3 Championships ... all
seven Liverpool runners ... and that could be the key to a
Liverpool victory ... Saratoga doesn't appear to have any
depth - if any of their top five runners has an "off" day,
they could easily get beat ... and it doesn't have to be that much
of an "off" day.
Class A has many closely rated
runners in key scoring positions ... Saratoga has the advantage in
these scoring positions ... but if Liverpool shows even modest
improvement, this race could get "even-up" quickly ...
Saratoga is the favorite, but Liverpool has a chance to win with
a great performance ... if Liverpool runs with the intensity
shown at sectionals, this race will be very interesting.
Churchville-Chili upset
Greece-Athena at the Section 5 sectionals ... a repeat performance
will lower their predicted score above ... I have only limited
results for Warwick (I need more than 24 hours in a day), but
they seem closely matched with Churchville ... the remaining five
teams are all closely matched ... wouldn't be surprised if the
actual score scrambles them.
|
| State Boys
Class C Team Prediction (11-7-2001) ... Too Close to Call
... Actual
(11-10-2001) |
|
**
Click Here for Past Performance Listings for All Class C Teams **
|
Predicted Actual
Team Score Team Score
================ ===== =============== =====
Sauquoit Valley 76 (Sec 3) Sauquoit Valley 51
Pearl River 76 (Sec 1) Pearl River 67
Addison 107 (Sec 5) Addison 88
East Aurora 121 (Sec 6) East Aurora 131
Chatham 124 (Sec 2) Chatham 143
Saranac Lake 149 (Sec 7) Babylon 158
Chenango Forks 188 (Sec 4) Saranac Lake 170
Carle Place 189 (Sec 8) Red Hook 179
Red Hook 191 (Sec 9) Chenango Forks 186
Babylon 222 (Sec 11) Carle Place 221
Potsdam 253 (Sec 10) Potsdam DNS
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Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
============================================================
1 Brendan Fennell 11 Pearl River 16:11.8 189
8 Alan Merrick 11 Sauquoit Valley 16:51.1 176
9 Dan Tickner 11 Bishop Ludden 16:51.9 176
10 John Nicotera 9 Sauquoit Valley 16:53.1 176
11 Kevin Horvath 11 Sauquoit Valley 16:53.5 176
12 Brad Ariola 11 APW 16:54.2 175
16 Jason Croniser 11 Adirondack 16:57.7 174
21 Bobby Perkins 10 South Lewis 17:12.8 169
35 Larry DiCesare 11 Sauquoit Valley 17:35.9 161
37 Steven Stedman 9 Sauquoit Valley 17:37.1 161
41 Evan Guiney 12 Cooperstown 17:39.1 160
85 Jason Lomonaco 9 Sauquoit Valley 18:37.5 141
106 Eric White 10 Sauquoit Valley 19:19.4 127
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| Post-Race Comment:
A sensational team effort by Sauquoit won the title ... I
don't think it was planned, but the Section 3 runners ran in groups
much of the race and it worked out very well (during the season, it
was common for the top 3 Sauquoit runners to run together).
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| Pre-Race Analysis:
Wish I had more time to collect additional information for this race
... it looks like a very close match-up between Sauquoit Valley
and Pearl River ... Addison, East Aurora and Chatham
are not that far behind ... Pearl River's Brendan Fennell is the
favorite to win the race ... Brendan is one of the very best runners
in the State (any class) ... starting the Pearl River team score
with a "1" is an advantage ... Sauquoit counters with
three very good runners (Alan Merrick, John Nicotera and Kevin
Horvath). This race will be determined by how well all
five runners perform on each team ... one exceptional performance by
any runner could be the key to victory ... my analysis says the
race is too close to call with any certainty.
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