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 Speed Ratings  -  IAAF World XC Championship - Junior Women
 ... March 20, 2011 (Punta Umbria, Spain)

Results from:  http://www.iaaf.org/WXC11/results/eventCode=4527/index.html

Several viewers asked me to speed rate the IAAF World XC Championship (Junior Women) IF possible.

The speed ratings below are an academic exercise at approximating the results of the World Junior 6K XC race to common high school 5K cross country speed ratings.

The ratings below are an approximation at best ... they have significant margins of error.

These ratings require some assumptions and general statistical fitting of various scenarios (and then making a "best guess" estimation) ...

To initiate the statistical fit, I applied profiles of the Girls Footlocker Finals from the last few years ... In this regard, I excluded all World Meet runners who finished ahead of Aisling Cuffe (who finished 17th) and profiled (compared) the next 40 runners to Footlocker Finals from the last few years ... The World Junior race was roughly 160 seconds slower than Footlockers ... After applying a scaling factor for 6K-to-5K, the resulting speed ratings are shown below.

Ailsing Cuffe (158.0) is a bit lower than her normal high school ratings (160-168), but I think she may have been somewhat tired after an all-out effort at Indoor Nationals (2nd fastest 2-mile ever), a flight to Spain, time-zone changes, etc. ... Molly Grabill (151) was fairly typical of her performances as was Katie Flood (157)...

Overall, the estimated speed ratings seem decent and in the right "ballpark".

 

 

                                                                                 Approximated
Place   Athlete                              Country    Time    Difference       Speed Rating
1       Faith Chepngetich Kipyegon              KEN     18:53     +0:00          182.6   183  
2       Genet Yalew                             ETH     18:54     +0:01          182.3   182  
3       Azemra Gebru                            ETH     18:54     +0:01          182.3   182  
4       Waganesh Mekasha                        ETH     18:59     +0:06          180.8   181  
5       Janeth Kisa                             KEN     19:08     +0:15          178.1   178  
6       Nancy Chepkwemoi                        KEN     19:20     +0:27          174.5   174  
7       Purity Cherotich Rionoripo              KEN     19:24     +0:31          173.3   173  
8       Emebet Anteneh                          ETH     19:29     +0:36          171.8   172  
9       Brillian Jepkorir Kipkoech              KEN     19:33     +0:40          170.6   171  
10      Buze Diriba                             ETH     19:34     +0:41          170.3   170  
11      Alem Mokonnin                           ETH     19:39     +0:46          168.8   169  
12      Katsuki Suga                            JPN     19:49     +0:56          165.8   166  
13      Tomoka Kimura                           JPN     19:56     +1:03          163.7   164  
14      Mekdes Woldu                            ERI     19:59     +1:06          162.8   163  
15      Emelia Gorecka                          GBR     20:03     +1:10          161.6   162  
16      Naom Chepngeno Mitei                    KEN     20:07     +1:14          160.4   160  
17      Aisling Cuffe                           USA     20:15     +1:22          158.0   158  ***
18      Nancy Cheptegei                         UGA     20:17     +1:24          157.4   157  
19      Katie Flood                             USA     20:18     +1:25          157.1   157  ***
20      Phanice Chemutai                        UGA     20:19     +1:26          156.8   157  
21      Celia Sullohern                         AUS     20:20     +1:27          156.5   156  
22      Annabel Gummow                          GBR     20:20     +1:27          156.5   156  
23      Yuriko Kosaki                           JPN     20:23     +1:30          155.6   156  
24      Yohana Zemuy                            ERI     20:24     +1:31          155.3   155  
25      Luula Berhane                           ERI     20:29     +1:36          153.8   154  
26      Fikadu Tsegay                           ERI     20:31     +1:38          153.2   153  
27      Risa Yokoe                              JPN     20:31     +1:38          153.2   153  
28      Molly Grabill                           USA     20:40     +1:47          150.5   151  ***
29      Louise Small                            GBR     20:41     +1:48          150.2   150  
30      Risa Shibuya                            JPN     20:48     +1:55          148.1   148  
31      Fadwa Sidi Madane                       MAR     20:56     +2:03          145.7   146  
32      Amela Terzic                            SRB     20:56     +2:03          145.7   146  
33      Doreen Sande                            UGA     20:58     +2:05          145.1   145  
34      Natsumi Yoshida                         JPN     21:00     +2:07          144.5   145  
35      Amina Tahiri                            MAR     21:08     +2:15          142.1   142  
36      Hadda Souadia                           ALG     21:11     +2:18          141.2   141  
37      Kefilwe Galeitsiwe                      BOT     21:11     +2:18          141.2   141  
38      Hanane Qallouj                          MAR     21:14     +2:21          140.3   140  
39      Stella Chesang                          UGA     21:16     +2:23          139.7   140  
40      Georgia Peel                            GBR     21:21     +2:28          138.2   138  
41      Darine Benamer                          ALG     21:24     +2:31          137.3   137  
42      Hayat Allaoui                           MAR     21:25     +2:32          137.0   137  
43      Charo Inga                              PER     21:28     +2:35          136.1   136  
44      Khonzeni Gwegwa                         RSA     21:29     +2:36          135.8   136  
45      Beth Carter                             GBR     21:34     +2:41          134.3   134  
46      Priska Auf der Maur                     SUI     21:37     +2:44          133.4   133  
47      Sylvia Kedireng Tshetlanyana            RSA     21:39     +2:46          132.8   133  
48      Riham Senani                            ALG     21:40     +2:47          132.5   133  
49      Aleli Aparicio                          PER     21:41     +2:48          132.2   132  
50      Letitia Saayman                         RSA     21:42     +2:49          131.9   132  
51      Caroline Pfister                        CAN     21:43     +2:50          131.6   132  
52      Vianney Villanueva                      MEX     21:49     +2:56          129.8   130  
53      Zenobie Vangansbeke                     BEL     21:50     +2:57          129.5   129  
54      Nabila Madoui                           ALG     21:53     +3:00          128.6   129  
55      Carise Thompson                         CAN     21:54     +3:01          128.3   128  
56      Caroline Thilivhali Marandela           RSA     21:56     +3:03          127.7   128  
57      Luz Mery Rojas                          PER     21:56     +3:03          127.7   128  
58      Thamani Tawanda                         BOT     21:58     +3:05          127.1   127  
59      Anca Maria Bunea                        ROU     21:58     +3:05          127.1   127  
60      Maria Bernard                           CAN     22:00     +3:07          126.5   127  
61      Beatriz Caspar                          ESP     22:01     +3:08          126.2   126  
62      Ciara Kary                              CAN     22:02     +3:09          125.9   126  
63      Soukaina Atanane                        MAR     22:06     +3:13          124.7   125  
64      Fiona Benson                            CAN     22:07     +3:14          124.4   124  
65      Ruth Haynes                             GBR     22:08     +3:15          124.1   124  
66      Jovana de la Cruz                       PER     22:09     +3:16          123.8   124  
67      María José Pérez                        ESP     22:10     +3:17          123.5   124  
68      Marion Guillemin                        FRA     22:12     +3:19          122.9   123  
69      Justyna Jendro                          POL     22:14     +3:21          122.3   122  
70      Liteboho Makhatseane                    LES     22:15     +3:22          122.0   122  
71      Nina Savina                             BLR     22:16     +3:23          121.7   122  
72      Emily Driedger                          CAN     22:17     +3:24          121.4   121  
73      Thandeka Emily Manzana                  RSA     22:23     +3:30          119.6   120  
74      Nabila Chaib Draa                       ALG     22:23     +3:30          119.6   120  
75      Loubna Zeroukhi                         ALG     22:23     +3:30          119.6   120  
76      Blanca Fernández                        ESP     22:36     +3:43          115.7   116  
77      Rafika Abdennebi                        TUN     22:40     +3:47          114.5   115  
78      Ahlam Zinadi                            MAR     22:41     +3:48          114.2   114  
79      Hallouma Jerfel                         TUN     22:45     +3:52          113.0   113  
80      Julie Nacouzi                           USA     22:46     +3:53          112.7   113  
81      Selma Kaddachi                          TUN     22:53     +4:00          110.6   111  
82      Letizia Titon                           ITA     22:59     +4:06          108.8   109  
83      Hannah Valenzuela                       USA     23:04     +4:11          107.3   107  
84      Sara Ruiz                               ESP     23:11     +4:18          105.2   105  
85      Patricia Cueto                          ESP     23:26     +4:33          100.7   101  
86      Thato Makhafola                         RSA     23:32     +4:39          98.9    99   
87      Irene Sánchez                           ESP     23:54     +5:01          92.3    92   
88      Nesrine Ben Khemissa                    TUN     24:20     +5:27          84.5    84   
89      Rasha Ayoub                             JOR     24:59     +6:06          72.8    73   
90      Nour Sioud                              TUN     26:11     +7:18          51.2    51