TullyRunners - Article
Approximated World, USA and Collegiate 5K Track Speed Ratings
by Bill Meylan (March 20, 2021)
Based on suggestions, I thought it might be interesting to show approximated Speed Ratings for top world, USA and collegiate runners in comparison to top high school runners. I have been asked numerous times over the years what the best runners in the world might achieve in terms of Speed Ratings ... So I decided to do it by approximating Speed Ratings for 5000 meter track results.
The tables below show approximated Speed Ratings for 5000 meter (5K) Track races based on correlation to high school cross country and track results ... The simple method is shown below.
The following considerations must be noted:
-
These are just approximations, but are probably decent enough
-
The approximations assume good running conditions
-
If running conditions are excellent, the approximations may be too high
-
If running conditions are poor, the approximations may be too low
-
Those familiar with TullyRunners XC Speed Ratings may find the approximations interesting
Sources of 5K Track times:
https://www.worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/5000-metres/outdoor/men/senior
https://www.worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/5000-metres/outdoor/women/senior
http://www.ustfccca.org/records-lists/outdoor-collegiate-all-time-bests?doing_wp_cron=1615215542.3836410045623779296875
| MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some World & USA Best 5K Track Races |
Men - World Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks
Approximated
Runner Date Time Speed Rating
===================== ======= ======== ------------
Joshua CHEPTEGEI 8/14/20 12:35.36 230.21 230
Kenenisa BEKELE 5/31/04 12:37.35 229.55 230
Haile GEBRSELASSIE 6/13/98 12:39.36 228.88 229
Daniel KOMEN 8/22/97 12:39.74 228.75 229
Selemon BAREGA 8/31/18 12:43.02 227.66 228
Hagos GEBRHIWET 8/31/18 12:45.82 226.73 227
Eliud KIPCHOGE 7/2/04 12:46.53 226.49 226
Yomif KEJELCHA 8/31/18 12:46.79 226.40 226
Dejen GEBREMESKEL 7/6/12 12:46.81 226.40 226
Sileshi SIHINE 7/2/04 12:47.04 226.32 226
Mohammed AHMED 7/10/20 12:47.20 226.27 226
Jacob KIPLIMO 9/8/20 12:48.63 225.79 226
Isiah Kiplangat KOECH 7/6/12 12:48.64 225.79 226
Isaac Kiprono SONGOK 8/18/06 12:48.66 225.78 226
Men - USA Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks
Approximated
Runner Date Time Speed Rating
===================== ======= ======== ------------
Bernard LAGAT 7/22/11 12:53.60 224.13 224
Chris SOLINSKY 8/6/10 12:55.53 223.49 223
Dathan RITZENHEIN 8/28/09 12:56.27 223.24 223
Paul CHELIMO 8/31/18 12:57.55 222.82 223
William KINCAID 9/10/19 12:58.10 222.63 223
Bob KENNEDY 8/14/96 12:58.21 222.60 223
Matt TEGENKAMP 9/4/09 12:58.56 222.48 222
Galen RUPP 6/2/12 12:58.90 222.37 222
|
| MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some Collegiate Best 5K Track Races |
Marks Outside Collegiate Season
Approximated
Runner College Date Time Speed Rating
================ ================= ========== ======== ------------
Lawi LALANG Arizona 7/19/2013 13:00.95 221.68 222
Eric JENKINS Oregon 7/18/2015 13:07.33 219.56 220
Peter KOECH Washington State 7/6/1982 13:09.50 218.83 219
Lawi LALANG Arizona 8/28/2014 13:09.51 218.83 219
David KIMANI Alabama 7/14/2001 13:10.29 218.57 219
Jonah KOECH Iowa State 6/9/1993 13:10.95 218.35 218
Chris SOLINSKY Wisconsin 7/14/2007 13:12.24 217.92 218
Alistair CRAGG Arkansas 7/30/2004 13:12.74 217.75 218
Robert CHESERET Arizona 6/29/2005 13:13.23 217.59 218
Mark CARROLL Providence 6/17/1995 13:13.94 217.35 217
Ryan HILL NC State 7/13/2013 13:14.22 217.26 217
Bill MCCHESNEY Oregon 8/18/1982 13:14.80 217.07 217
Ian DOBSON Stanford 6/24/2005 13:15.33 216.89 217
Henry RONO Washington State 9/10/1978 13:15.5 216.83 217
Morgan MCDONALD Wisconsin 7/22/2017 13:15.83 216.72 217
Will GEOGHEGAN Oregon 7/18/2015 13:17.85 216.05 216
Cam LEVINS Southern Utah 8/8/2012 13:18.29 215.90 216
Mo AHMED Wisconsin 8/3/2014 13:18.88 215.71 216
OFFICIAL Collegiate Top Performers and Performances
Henry RONO Washington State 4/8/1978 13:08.4 219.20 219
Diego ESTRADA Northern Arizona 4/28/2013 13:15.33 216.89 217
Alistair CRAGG Arkansas 4/30/2004 13:16.98 216.34 216
Justyn KNIGHT Syracuse 5/5/2017 13:17.51 216.16 216
Lawi LALANG Arizona 6/13/2014 13:18.36 215.88 216
Brent VAUGHN Colorado 5/4/2008 13:18.46 215.85 216
Cam LEVINS Southern Utah 4/19/2012 13:18.47 215.84 216
Eric JENKINS Northeastern 4/28/2013 13:18.57 215.81 216
Edward CHESEREK Oregon 6/13/2014 13:18.71 215.76 216
Morgan MCDONALD Wisconsin 2/15/2018 13:19.05 215.65 216
|
| MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some High School Best 5K Track Races |
BOYS HS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)
Approximated
Runner Year Time Speed Rating
================= ==== ======== ------------
Galen Rupp 2004 13:37.91 209.36 209
Gerry Lindgren 1964 13:44.00 207.33 207
Dathan Ritzenhein 2001 13:44.70 207.10 207
Nico Young 2020 13:50.55 205.15 205
覧覧Ritzenhein 2001 13:51.69 204.77 205
覧覧Rupp 2004 13:52.85 204.38 204
Steve Prefontaine 1969 13:52.80 204.40 204
覧覧Rupp 2004 13:55.32 203.56 204
John Zishka 1980 13:55.65 203.45 203
Chris Derrick 2008 13:55.96 203.35 203
|
| WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some World & USA Best 5K Track Races |
Women - World Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks
Approximated
Runner Date Time Speed Rating
===================== ======= ======== ------------
Letesenbet GIDEY 10/7/20 14:06.62 200.79 201
Tirunesh DIBABA 6/6/08 14:11.15 199.28 199
Almaz AYANA 6/2/16 14:12.59 198.80 199
Meseret DEFAR 7/22/08 14:12.88 198.71 199
Genzebe DIBABA 7/4/15 14:15.41 197.86 198
Hellen OBIRI 6/8/17 14:18.37 196.88 197
Agnes Jebet TIROP 7/21/19 14:20.68 196.11 196
Vivian Jepkemoi CHERUIYOT 7/29/11 14:20.87 196.04 196
Sifan HASSAN 7/21/19 14:22.12 195.63 196
Senbere TEFERI 7/13/18 14:23.33 195.22 195
Liliya SHOBUKHOVA 7/19/08 14:23.75 195.08 195
Shelby HOULIHAN 7/10/20 14:23.92 195.03 195
Elvan ABEYLEGESSE 6/11/04 14:24.68 194.77 195
Karissa SCHWEIZER 7/10/20 14:26.34 194.22 194
Women - USA Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks
Shelby HOULIHAN 7/10/20 14:23.92 195.03 195
Karissa SCHWEIZER 7/10/20 14:26.34 194.22 194
Shannon ROWBURY 9/9/16 14:38.92 190.03 190
Molly HUDDLE 7/18/14 14:42.64 188.79 189 (added)
Shalane FLANAGAN 4/13/07 14:44.80 188.07 188
Regina JACOBS 7/21/00 14:45.35 187.88 188
Elise CRANNY 6/30/20 14:48.02 186.99 187
Courtney FRERICHS 6/30/20 14:50.06 186.31 186
Deena KASTOR 8/1/00 14:51.62 185.79 186
Jennifer RHINES 6/6/08 14:54.29 184.90 185
Kara GOUCHER 9/16/07 14:55.02 184.66 185
Lisa UHL 7/16/10 14:55.74 184.42 184
Emily SISSON 3/6/21 14:55.82 184.39 184
Amy RUDOLPH 7/8/96 14:56.04 184.32 184
Annette HAND-PETERS 8/27/93 14:56.07 184.31 184
Jenny SIMPSON 8/29/13 14:56.26 184.25 184
Emily INFELD 7/22/17 14:56.33 184.22 184
Amy YODER BEGLEY 7/3/10 14:56.72 184.09 184
Allie BUCHALSKI 3/6/21 14:57.54 183.82 184
Elinor PURRIER 10/5/19 14:58.17 183.61 184
Lauren FLESHMAN 5/31/08 14:58.48 183.51 184
Marla RUNYAN 5/29/04 14:59.20 183.27 183
|
| WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some Collegiate Best 5K Track Races |
Marks Outside Collegiate Season
Approximated
Runner College Date Time Speed Rating
======================== ============= ========== ======== ------------
Lisa KOLL Iowa State 7/16/2010 14:55.74 184.42 184
Jenny BARRINGER Colorado 7/31/2009 15:05.25 181.25 181
Cathy BRANTA Wisconsin 7/4/1985 15:07.56 180.48 180
Michelle SIKES Wake Forest 6/22/2007 15:09.28 179.91 180
Lauren FLESHMAN Stanford 8/26/2003 15:12.71 178.76 179
Marielle HALL Texas 6/27/2014 15:12.79 178.74 179
Aisling CUFFE Stanford 6/27/2014 15:13.15 178.62 179
Renee METIVIER Colorado 7/23/2005 15:15.78 177.74 178
Molly HUDDLE Notre Dame 7/25/2007 15:17.13 177.29 177
Karissa SCHWEIZER Missouri 6/23/2017 15:18.69 176.77 177
OFFICIAL Top Performers and Performances
Jenny BARRINGER Colorado 5/2/2009 15:07.64 180.45 180
Kim SMITH Providence 4/16/2004 15:09.72 179.76 180
Aisling CUFFE Stanford 5/4/2014 15:11.13 179.29 179
Abbey D'AGOSTINO Dartmouth 4/18/2013 15:11.35 179.22 179
Sally KIPYEGO Texas Tech 4/18/2008 15:11.88 179.04 179
Betsy SAINA Iowa State 3/29/2013 15:12.05 178.98 179
Michelle SIKES Wake Forest 6/8/2007 15:16.76 177.41 177
Lisa KOLL Iowa State 5/1/2010 15:17.76 177.08 177
Jessica TONN Stanford 5/2/2015 15:18.85 176.72 177
Aliphine TULIAMUK-BOLTON Wichita State 3/29/2013 15:18.86 176.71 177
|
| WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some High School Best 5K Track Races |
GIRLS HS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)
Approximated
Runner Year Time Speed Rating
================= ==== ======== ------------
Jenna Hutchins 2020 15:34.54 171.51 172
Katelyn Tuohy 2018 15:37.12 170.63 171
Mary Cain 2013 15:45.46 167.85 168
Emily Sisson 2010 15:48.91 166.70 167
Cayla Hatton 2012 15:50.32 166.23 166
Charlotte Bednar 2021 15:52.10 165.63 166
Caitlin Chock 2004 15:52.88 165.37 165
Brie Oakley 2017 15:55.75 164.42 164
Wesley Frazier 2013 15:55.94 164.35 164
Fiona O狸eeffe 2016 15:56.84 164.05 164
Cathy Schiro 1985 16:00.40 162.87 163
Weini Kelati 2016 16:08.83 160.06 160
|
Method to Approximate a Speed Rating from a 5000 Meter Track Time Equation for Men: Speed Rating = (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + 114)) / 3 Equation for Women: Speed Rating = (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + 111)) / 3 NOTE - General Equation for XC Speed Ratings: Speed Rating = (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + race adjustment)) / 3 |
Brief Explanation of the Equations:
The 1560 is the number of seconds in 26 minutes ... 26 minutes is the 0.00 point mark on the TullyRunners XC Speed Rating Scale where 3 seconds equals 1.00 point (the reason for the "divide by 3" in the equations.
The race adjustment for the men is 114 seconds ... The race adjustment for the women is 111 seconds ... These race adjustments were determined by data regression using high school XC speed ratings and corresponding 5000 meter track times as noted in the article at: http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2020/Hutchins5KRating.htm
The race adjustment for XC races is derived by several different statistical methods ... The most important is a correlation using an existing database of prior speed ratings of individual runners in the race(s) being considered ... next is correlation with a data library of similar races and groups of similar runners ... If those methods are insufficient, then approximation using an historically derived inherent speed adjustment for the specific race course MAY be possible as a last resort.