Was FM's Sweep at Manhattan Predictable??

In the week preceding the Manhattan Invitational, several coaches and others asked me about FM's chances against CBA-New Jersey ... I did a brief comparison using CBA's most recent race in the Shore Coaches Invite at Holmdel Park ... The Shore Coaches Invite at Holmdel Park is a dream-come-true for statistical analysis because thousands of runners compete on the same day-same course, and the runners comprise the entire spectrum of abilities (and school sizes) from elite to average to slow ... It is precisely the type of race that is easy to see the comparative speed of the race course.

A quick analysis revealed FM was likely to be a comfortable winner ... It appeared that FM would have all five scorers finish before CBA's second or third runner finished ... It did not show an FM sweep ... a sweep was only possible if FM, as a team, improved (or if CBA had an off-day).

Several coaches have requested to see the quick analysis, so here it is ... To determine the comparative speed of the CBA guys, I merged all of the race results for the varsity boys at the Shore Coaches Invite (nearly 1200 runners) and plotted the merge on the same graph as my Baseline Race Course (SUNY Utica) and simply looked at the difference ... Here is the actual graph:

Couldn't ask for a better representation! ... On October 2, 2004, Holmdel Park was approximately 40 seconds faster than SUNY Utica (I used 39 seconds because it's a multiple of 3) ... therefore, 39 seconds was the course adjustment ... I added 39 seconds to each runner's time at Shore Coaches to approximate their time at SUNY Utica ... In years prior to 2003, a typical adjustment at Holmdel Park was 20-25 seconds ... in 2003, it was typically 30-40 seconds (and it still appears to be) ... maybe it's the result of running the bigger races when the weather is really good ... But this comparison shows why it's important to know the adjustment on a daily basis (as opposed to a general course correction observed over many years).

The FM guys most recent race was the McQuaid Invite  ... I already determined the adjustment of 92 seconds (bigger adjustment because McQuaid is only a 3 mile race) ... The table below lists the comparative speeds of FM and CBA going into the Manhattan race ... FM has for four guys ahead of CBA's second based on adjusted times:

 

                                   Actual            Adjusted       Speed       Approx
                                    Time      Adj      Time         Rating    Bowdoin Park
                                   -------   -----   --------       -------   ------------
 CBA at Shore Coaches (10-2-2004)

 1 Horel, Chris          11 CBA    16:12.0  +  39  =  16:51.0       (183.0)       16:39.0
 5 Rogers, Kevin         11 CBA    16:25.0  +  39  =  17:04.0       (178.7)       16:52.0
 6 Leach, Greg           11 CBA    16:31.0  +  39  =  17:10.0       (176.7)       16:58.0
 9 Wheat, Justin         11 CBA    16:44.0  +  39  =  17:23.0       (172.3)       17:11.0
12 Pellegrino, Anthony   10 CBA    16:59.0  +  39  =  17:38.0       (167.3)       17:24.0


 FM at McQuaid Invite (10-2-2004)

1  Jared Burdick         12 FM     15:12.0  +  92  =  16:44.0       (185.3)       16:32.0
2  Tommy Gruenewald      10 FM     15:15.0  +  92  =  16:47.0       (184.3)       16:35.0
4  Andrew McCann         11 FM     15:23.0  +  92  =  16:55.0       (181.7)       16:43.0
5  Owen Kimple           11 FM     15:24.0  +  92  =  16:56.0       (181.3)       16:44.0
7  John Heron            11 FM     15:27.0  +  92  =  16:59.0       (180.3)       16:47.0


 CBA at Manhattan (10-9-2004)

 6 Horel, Chris          11 CBA    12:58.8  +  235 =  16:53.8       (182.1)       16:41.8
 8 Leach, Greg           11 CBA    13:16.8  +  235 =  17:11.8       (176.1)       16:59.8
10 Rogers, Kevin         11 CBA    13:22.7  +  235 =  17:17.7       (174.1)       17:05.7
12 Wheat, Justin         11 CBA    13:27.8  +  235 =  17:22.8       (172.4)       17:10.8
18 Pellegrino, Anthony   10 CBA    13:37.1  +  235 =  17:32.1       (169.3)       17:20.1


 FM at Manhattan Invite (10-9-2004)

1  Tommy Gruenewald      10 FM     12:41.9  +  235 =  16:36.9       (187.7)       16:24.9
2  Owen Kimple           11 FM     12:48.4  +  235 =  16:43.4       (185.5)       16:31.4
3  Jared Burdick         12 FM     12:49.5  +  235 =  16:44.5       (185.2)       16:32.5
4  John Heron            11 FM     12:50.7  +  235 =  16:45.7       (184.8)       16:33.7
5  Andrew McCann         11 FM     12:53.2  +  235 =  16:48.2       (183.9)       16:36.2


 NY State Federation Meet 2003 (Bowdoin Park)

1   Lopez Lomong - 12     Tully           15:45.37     (200.9)
2   Dominic Luka - 12     Tully           15:52.34     (198.6)
3   Kyle Heath - 12       Victor          16:00.21     (195.9)
4   Kevin Tschirhart - 11 Northport       16:01.05     (195.7)
5   Jacob Gurzler - 12    Shenendehowa    16:11.99     (192.0)
7   Scott Mindel - 12     Shenendehowa    16:20.65     (189.1)
8   Ryan Gaedje - 12      Shenendehowa    16:21.62     (188.8)
16  Phil Roach - 12       Shenendehowa    16:31.71     (185.4)
17  Jared Burdick - 11    FM              16:32.21     (185.3)
28  Brian Smerkers - 12   Shenendehowa    16:45.62     (180.8)
		

I have also listed the speed rating ... the speed rating is exactly the same thing as the adjusted race time ... it's easier to do math with numbers as compared to times ... the speed rating is just the number of seconds the adjusted time is faster than 26:00 (1560 seconds) divided by three.

For good measure, I posted the results of last year's Federation Meet ... that was one impressive showing by Shenendehowa.