This was an excellent competition ... At the conclusion of the race, I didn't know who won the race. Skaneateles finished with team places of 1-6-7-11-19 ... Pearl River with team places of 5-8-9-12-16 (individual runners are totally excluded from team scoring).  The key margin was in the top three finishers ... here, Skaneateles had an advantage of 14 to 22 ... they won by six points.

The table below lists the individual finishing places and speed ratings. The table further below lists the predicted team scores and actual scores ... I expanded the predicted list to include teams from additional sections because runners from some schools wanted to know how I rated them.  I predicted a six point victory for Skaneateles over Pearl River ... the actual margin was six points.

                                                        Speed
       Runner                School           Time     Rating
       ===================   ==============   =======  ======
    1  Jackie Kosakowski-12  Sauquoit Valley  19:59.2     133
    2  Lia Cross-11          Skaneateles      20:07.2     131
    6  Vanessa McKay-10      Pearl River      20:38.6     120
    8  Vanessa Everding-12   Skaneateles      20:49.6     116
   10  Julie Lynch-9         Skaneateles      20:50.4     116
   11  Pia Desoiza-11        Pearl River      20:56.5     114
   14  Jaclyn Gaines-10      Pearl River      20:59.3     113
   17  Simone Bras-11        Skaneateles      21:09.9     110
   20  Bernice Patten-10     Pearl River      21:17.1     107
   27  Courtney O'Keefe-12   Pearl River      21:30.7     103
   32  Cadie Cargile-11      Skaneateles      21:49.9     96
   33  Leann Donnelly-12     Waterloo         21:51.2     96
   34  Molly Lawson-11       Waterloo         21:51.5     96
   35  Mary Denninger-11     Cato Meridian    21:52.4     96
   36  Liz LeVan-12          South Lewis      21:54.6     95
   38  Kathleen Barrett-10   Pearl River      21:56.5     94
   45  Erika Geihe-9         Skaneateles      22:08.4     90
   46  Mary O-12             Pearl River      22:09.8     90
   47  Jenny Ryan-11         Clinton          22:10.2     90
   52  Emily Everding-9      Skaneateles      22:16.2     88
   85  Natalie Romer-12      Canastota        23:10.8     69

 Click Here for Past Performance Listings

                Predicted                          Actual
  Team              Score       Team                Score
  ================  =====       ==================  =====
  Skaneateles         50        Skaneateles           44
  Pearl River         56        Pearl River           50
  Chatham             79        Chatham              101
  Waterloo           109        Waterloo             139
  Saranac Lake       162        Saranac Lake         155
  Alden              168        Canton               158
  Bayport-Bluepoint  190        Bayport-Bluepoint    160
  Windsor            217        Alden                165
  Spackenkill        220        Windsor              237
  North Shore        325        Spackenkill          248
                                North Shore          311
  **Section 10 not included
   (I didn't have results)

Margin of Error: the "margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is approximately six points ... this means that either team can win, but Skaneateles has the  advantage.

How the Race Will Be Run:  To be honest, I'm not sure ... however, I think the eventual victor will be decided by two factors, (1) the match-ups between the individual Skaneateles and Pearl River runners and (2) the placement of runners from other teams amongst the Skaneateles and Pearl River runners (this was a key factor in computer simulations where Pearl River did best).

Good Luck to Both Teams!

Pearl River also easily won the Section 1 Class C title race contested at Westchester Community College on Nov 3 ... the top runners were Vanessa McKay (1st, 20:12), Pia Desoiza (2nd, 20:14), Jaclyn Gaines (4th, 20:34), Bernice Patton (7th, 20:48), Courtney O'Keefe (20:58), and Kathleen Barrett (10th, 21:27) ... respective speed ratings of 123, 122, 115, 111, 107, and 98.

I need a couple of days to collect and analyze results from other sections to access their impact on the Skaneateles - Pearl River match-up ... I will post the computer simulation results when I'm finished. 

Oct 23rd Update: Skaneateles did not compete this past weekend ... however, they will be competing next Saturday (Oct 28) in the Onondaga High School League (OHSL) Championships at Baldwinsville. They are favored to win the 32-school meet that includes Fayetteville-Manlius, West Genesee, Liverpool, CNS, Westhill, and Tully.

Pearl River competed in the Section 1 Coaches Invitational held at Westchester CC (site of last year's State Meet). They won the V3 race with a score of 30 ... runner-up Arlington had a score of 51. According to ArmoryTrack.com, the top three Pearl River finishers were Jaclyn Gaines (3rd, 20:53.9), Vanessa McKay (4th, 20:54.1) and Bernice Patten (5th, 20:58.3) ... my speed ratings for these times are 114, 114, and 112 respectively. Courtney O'Keefe (8th, 21:30) is showing continual improvement during her come-back (rating of 102).

Skaneateles has the advantage according to my speed ratings, but Pearl River is beginning to close the gap ... a lot can happen in the three weeks leading to the State Meet. Hopefully, next week I can go into more depth concerning this match-up. I think the outcome is much closer than the speed ratings indicate ... remember, the speed ratings you see here measure how fast a runner has run, NOT how fast the runner will run. My computer simulation have a "prediction-mode" ... while some of the Pearl River results are inconsistent (on an individual basis), there's a definite trend for rapid improvement. 

Skaneateles competed in  the Baldwinsville Invitational. Coach Reed decided to move-up to the "A" division race and challenge the #1 nationally ranked Saratoga Springs team ... Skaneateles actually ran their best race of the year ... only six Saratoga girls finished in front of the first Skaneateles runner (Lia Cross) ... Saratoga edged-out a narrow 19-72 victory. But I give Skaneateles a lot of credit ... they chased the Saratoga girls very well and posted some impressive race times. Here are my speed ratings for Skaneateles: Lia Cross (128), Vanessa Everding (123), Cadie Cargile (122 ... her best ever), Julie Lynch (113), and  Emily Everding (99).

Pearl River competed in the St. Anthony Invitational at Sunken Meadows (A2 division).  Here are my speed ratings:  Pia Desoiza (113), Vanessa McKay (100), Mary O (88), Bernice Patton (95), Lyza Sanchez (84,) Caitlin Hanley (83), and Courtney O'Keefe (80). Skaneateles has a substantial lead, but I'm reserving judgment ... I believe the Pearl River team will begin improving rapidly as sectionals and the State meet approaches. This is a quality team with quality runners ... don't count them out.

I was at New Hartford and watched Pearl River. They are an impressive team with an excellent coach (Dan Doherty). I first watched their JV team run in a race with 200+ runners ... their top five runners finished a remarkable 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th. In the varsity race, Pearl River beat a very good Liverpool team by 60-75 ... here are my speed ratings for Pearl River's top five at New Hartford:  Vanessa McKay (113), Pia Desoiza (101), Mary O (98), Bernice Patton (93), and Lyza Sanchez (80).

At Auburn, Skaneateles beat an excellent Groton team by 24-33. Here are my speed ratings for Skaneateles' top five: Lia Cross (124), Vanessa Everding (118), Cadie Cargile (115), Julie Lynch (105), and Simone Bras (92). In the JV race, Emily Everding had a much improved rating of 90 ... she may surprise some people this year.

Once again, the Skaneateles ratings are ahead of Pearl River. However, Pearl River has a very deep and talented team that is continually improving ... their ratings are very similar to last year at this time. In addition, some of Pearl River's JV runners may have an impact at the varsity level (they really impressed me). Pearl River is hampered somewhat by a stress fracture injury to outstanding runner Courtney O'Keefe ... but their depth is a real bonus. The Skaneateles - Pearl River match-up is going to be very interesting.

Runner             School        Race Time  Speed Rating
=================  ===========   ========   ============
Lia Cross          Skaneateles   19:00.4     127
Vanessa Everding   Skaneateles   19:18.5     121
Cadie Cargile      Skaneateles   19:36.6     114
Simone Bras        Skaneateles   20:34.0     95
Erika Giehe        Skaneateles   20:58.0     87
Emily Everding     Skaneateles   21:36.9     74
Merritt Haswell    Skaneateles   21:40.6     73

Vanessa McKay      Pearl River   19:54.2     115
Lyza Sanchez       Pearl River   20:43.8     99
Pia Desoiza        Pearl River   20:54.1     95
Mary O             Pearl River   20:56.2     95
Bernice Patton     Pearl River   21:35.7     81
Kathleen Bassett   Pearl River   22:21.4     66

Pre-Season 2000 Analysis

Vanessa Everding and Lia Cross had outstanding spring seasons in track. At States, Lia finished 2nd in the 3000m (10:45.42; Class B) and Vanessa finished 4th in the 1500m (4:45.81; Class B).

Skaneateles had an outstanding junior high team last year ... this could result in a very positive impact for the varsity team. Coach Jack Reed is one of the finest coaches in New York (or anywhere for that matter) ... how many other coaches keep a large chronograph timer in their living room? Considering their returning runners, new runners, and coach, I believe Skaneateles could reverse last year's results and become the top Class C team in the State ... It won't be easy ... Pearl River is too good.

Go to the Skaneateles XC News web-site for additional information.

At the State Track Meet in June, freshman Erin Demchko beat Vanessa Everding of Skaneateles in the 1500m (4:42.50 to 4:45.81) ... I don't know if she runs XC.

Pearl River is the number 2 ranked team overall in NY State for the entire 1990's (see link) ... second only to Saratoga. They have a tradition of excellence. I believe 2000 will be no different ... they may beat Skaneateles, but they need to improve upon last year because Skaneateles will be better than last year.

1999 Match-Ups Head-To-Head