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Here are the pre-race projections for
the 2000 Sectionals with the Actual Final Sectional Scores.
The predicted scores shown below are the results of
various computer simulations. In general, I decided to use
"predictive" simulations based upon standard Monte Carlo
statistical methods ... this means I ran thousands of individual
race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final
score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the
probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember:
the scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference)!
| Class A Boys ...
'Too Close To Call' |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== =================== =====
1 FM 79 1 Liverpool 70
2 Liverpool 79 2 FM 73
3 CNS 139 3 Corcoran 118
4 Corcoran 154 4 CNS 129
5 West Genesee 155 5 West Genesee 141
6 Utica Proctor 181 6 Auburn 237
7 Nottingham 254 7 Watertown 255
8 Baldwinsville 273 8 Nottingham 256
9 Oswego 283 9 Baldwinsville 257
10 Watertown 289 10 Utica Proctor 271
11 Rome 328 11 Rome 283
12 Auburn 339 12 Whitesboro 304
13 Whitesboro 343 13 Central Square 324
14 Henninger 347 14 Oswego 328
15 Central Square 393 15 Henninger 341
16 Fulton 395 16 Fulton 390
17 Fowler 596 17 ESM 514
18 ESM 597
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| Pre-Race Team Analysis:
I ran several different types of simulations and got differing
results; however, the results were always close between FM and
Liverpool ... the scores above reflect results from two
"predictive" simulations. Class A has many good, closely
rated runners ... this makes the prediction more difficult, but it
will make the actual race much more interesting to watch. The
placement of runners (not from either FM or Liverpool) will be a key
to determining the winner ... it will be important for FM and
Liverpool runners to beat every possible runner to improve their
placing.
CNS is projected to finish third
because (in part) Dave Vinehout has shown continual improvement, and
"predictive" simulations reward this.
Individuals: There are a
number of runners (not on the winning team) that have good chances
of qualifying for States. Aaron Verminski (Rome) certainly has the
best chance. I personally hope Robert Howell (Nottingham) can
qualify, and I believe he will. The other spots are up for grabs
amongst some evenly matched runners. The
individuals to actually qualify were Aaron Verminski (Rome), Ryan Hohm (Corcoran), Pat Gaffney (West Genesee), Dave Masse (FM) and Ben Murphy (Corcoran). |
| Class B Boys ... Chittenango |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Chittenango 28 1 Chittenango 26
2 Westhill 113 2 Adirondack 95
3 Homer 117 3 Homer 125
4 APW 132 4 New Hartford 131
5 Adirondack 151 5 Westhill 141
6 Cortland 165 6 Jamesville Dewitt 162
7 Jamesville Dewitt 171 7 Cortland 193
8 New Hartford 174 8 Phoenix 195
9 Phoenix 228 9 Mexico 237
10 Mexico 266 10 Ilion 278
11 Indian River 286 11 Indian River 287
12 Carthage 324 12 Carthage 300
13 Oneida 406 13 Camden 311
14 Oneida 367
15 APW inc
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| Pre-Race Team Analysis: Assuming
all runners are healthy, Chittenango is the obvious favorite to win
Class B.
Individuals: Brad Ariola (APW),
Jason Croniser (Adirondack) and Jason Kaminski (Cortland) are three
likely possibilities to qualify for States. The next two spots have
at least four possible contenders ...Brian Byrnes (New Hartford ), Thom Powers (VVS), Jeremy Youngs (Adirondack) and David Slater
(Westhill). The
individuals to actually qualify were Jason Croniser (Adirondack), Brian Byrnes (New Hartford), Jeremy Youngs (Adirondack), Brad Ariola (APW) and Jason Kaminski (Cortland). |
| Class C Boys ... another
close one! |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 73 1 Sauquoit Valley 77
2 Skaneateles 79 2 South Lewis 85
3 South Lewis 91 3 Holland Patent 97
4 Holland Patent 101 4 Skaneateles 108
5 Cooperstown 142 5 Cooperstown 122
6 Mount Markham 174 6 Mount Markham 144
7 Canastota 200 7 Canastota 192
8 Herkimer 224 8 Herkimer 230
9 South Jefferson 298 9 South Jefferson 232
10 Cato Meridian 308 10 Cato Meridian 277
11 Jordan-Elbridge 329 11 Jordan-Elbridge 322
12 Notre Dame 356 12 Cazenovia 330
13 Cazenovia 361 13 Notre Dame 341
14 CBA 384 14 Clinton 350
15 Clinton 394 15 CBA 368
16 Marcellus 397 16 Hannibal 449
17 Hannibal 433 17 Bishop Ludden inc
18 Ilion 483 18 Marcellus dnr
19 Bishop Ludden 514 Ilion (class B)
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis: The
first thing to note is the "margin of error" on these
predictions ... for the top teams in this race, it is approximately
8 points ... therefore, Skaneateles and Sauquoit Valley are
statistically even. Several different types of simulations
consistently have Sauquoit winning. However, Skaneateles looked very
good at the OHSL League Meet ... they are capable of winning!
Sauquoit Valley was impressive at the Adirondack Invitational which
demonstrates their favoritism. South Lewis and Holland Patent are
not that far behind and should provide some good competition ... the
placement of their runners may determine the Sauquoit / Skaneateles
winner. This should be an excellent race, but Sauquoit Valley is the
favorite until proven otherwise.
Individuals: Mike Allen (Mount
Markham) is the choice to win the race and qualify for States. The
next four spots have a number of legitimate contenders ... it
depends in part as to the team winner.
The individuals to
actually qualify were Mike Allen (Mount Markham), Greg Bailey (South Lewis), Pat Noonan (Holland Patent), Steven Carlson (Cooperstown) and Weston Cross (Skaneateles). |
| Class D Boys ... Tully,
but closer than you think |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== =================== =====
1 Tully 48 1 Tully 42
2 Beaver River 62 2 Beaver River 61
3 Onondaga 97 3 Onondaga 90
4 Pulaski 160 4 Port Byron 161
5 Port Byron 189 5 Weedsport 162
6 Weedsport 222 6 Pulaski 166
7 Lafayette 230 7 Little Falls 171
8 Little Falls 239 8 Sandy Creek 220
9 Faith Heritage 299 9 Lafayette 227
10 Sandy Creek 306 10 Richfield Springs 234
11 Old Forge 308 11 Old Forge 296
12 Frankfort-Mohawk 311 12 Westmoreland 354
13 Hamilton 312 13 New York Mills 356
14 Richfield Springs 342 14 Alexandria 412
15 New York Mills 399
16 MPH 400
17 Alexandria Bay 487
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| Pre-Race Team Analysis: The
Tully boys have been a pleasant surprise all season long. Their
advantage is the ability to pack 5 or 6 runners at the finish within
a short time period. Sophomore Sean Rienhardt has run extremely well
(with the exception of a few races on a sprained ankle) and senior
Ben McKnight has been consisting good. Lief Brunet, Tom Caracci,
Toby Dornton and Jesse Burke represent the team's excellent depth.
But Beaver River is talented. Senior
Tim Scarpinato is expected to win the race. In recent weeks, runners
Kevin Bauter and Shawn Kloster have re-appeared and are running very
well. I believe the race will be closer than originally thought
because Kevin Bauter is improving rapidly as is Shawn Kloster. Zane
Buckingham has been consistently good. But I believe Tully's depth
will be enough to win. At this time, I believe the winner of this
race has a good chance of winning the State Meet. Also, Onondaga has
done very well this season and should be commended.
Individuals: Assuming Tully
wins the team title, the top individual qualifier will be Tim
Scarpinato. The next four spots have more than four contenders
that include Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs), Justin Block (Onondaga), Bubba Laney (Faith Heritage), Leif Schmidt (Oriskany), Dustin Goodfriend (Sandy Creek), Josh Daily (Watertown IHC), Andy Miller (Frankfort-Mohawk), Josh Brown (Lafayette) and Kevin
Bauter.
The individuals to
actually qualify were Tim Scarpinato (Beaver River), Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs), Justin Block (Onondaga), Josh Daily (Watertown IHC) and Dustin Goodfriend (Sandy Creek). |
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