NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2023

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners.

Three Team Scores are posted below:
 .. (1) The Overall Morning-Line Team Scores ... a combination of the overall ratings listed below PLUS some manual manipulation (based on historical trends or current information) to try and projection what "bettors" might actual consider a starting point for wagering ... Personally, I might actually bet somewhat differently.
 .. (2) Team Scores Using NXR Regional Speed Ratings
 .. (3) Team Scores Using State Meet Speed Rating

Initial projections posted on November 29, 2023 (updated Nov 30)  ...  ACTUAL SCORES To Be ADDED

 

                                                               ------------------------------------
 ----------------------------------------------------                 Team Scores Based on
   Team Scores Based on NXN Regional Speed Ratings                  State Meet Speed Ratings
 ----------------------------------------------------          ------------------------------------

 1   Southlake Carroll      TX    131    (South     )          1   American Fork           UT      123
 2   Christian Brothers Ac  NJ    136    (Northeast )          2   Christian Brothers Ac   NJ      127
 3   San Clemente (SS)      CA    151    (California)          3   Herriman                UT      153
 4   American Fork          UT    164    (Southwest )          4   Southlake Carroll       TX      162
 5   Dana Hills (SS)        CA    175    (California)          5   Downers Grove North     IL      231
 6   Westfield              NJ    200    (Northeast )          6   Westfield               NJ      251
 7   Herriman               UT    236    (Southwest )          7   San Clemente (SS)       CA      262
 8   Riverton               UT    246    (Southwest )          8   Crater                  OR      274
 9   Coeur d'Alene          ID    269    (Northwest )          9   Dana Hills (SS)         CA      274
 10  Great Oak (SS)         CA    271    (California)          10  Stevens Point           WI      286
 11  Crater                 OR    280    (Northwest )          11  Belen Jesuit Prep       FL      309
 12  Belen Jesuit Prep      FL    290    (Southeast )          12  Franklin                OR      310
 13  Downers Grove North    IL    316    (Midwest   )          13  Niwot                   CO      314
 14  Franklin               OR    321    (Northwest )          14  Wayzata                 MN      317
 15  Stevens Point          WI    337    (Heartland )          15  Plainfield North        IL      324
 16  Wayzata                MN    343    (Heartland )          16  Monroe-Woodbury         NY      326
 17  Bentonville            AR    356    (South     )          17  Bentonville             AR      327
 18  Niwot                  CO    381    (Southwest )          18  Coeur d'Alene           ID      328
 19  Plainfield North       IL    394    (Midwest   )          19  Great Oak (SS)          CA      356
 20  Monroe-Woodbury        NY    414    (New York  )          20  Auburn                  NY      444
 21  Auburn                 NY    480    (New York  )          21  Riverton                UT      475
 22  Montgomery Bell Acad   TN    523    (Southeast )          22  Montgomery Bell Acad    TN      508

    ** Note - California State Meet was used for the NXR Regional ratings above and the
         CIF Section Final for the "State Meet" ratings above since no NXR meet in California.

		

Pre-Race Comments ... All previous 17 years of NXN (Team Nationals) have demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because national competition on a new course is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses (typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The overall morning-line team scores projected above are based (in part) on the individual overall speed ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible inconsistencies into final projected team scores.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating) ... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and State Meet ratings above.

General Comments:

• The Morning-Line at most Horse Tracks considers three factors:
•  ... Past performance history of each horse
•  ... An Opinion of what people are likely to bet
•  ... Handicapping Opinion of the person making the morning-line.

Three favorites have emerged from from the speed rating assessment ... American Fork, Christian Brothers Academy and Southlake Carroll ... Other teams are definitely in the hunt for a podium spot, but the computer simulations place these 3 teams at the top and not much separates these three from each other.

Computer Race Simulations (a brief explanation) ... I take each runner's seasonal speed ratings (see ratings below) and use them to run a statistical "monte carlo" analysis (a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an uncertain event) ... I typically run 100,000 race simulations randomly selecting one speed rating for each runner in each simulated race ... I do runs using just the ratings I have or I wrap a statistical distribution around the sequential ratings of each runner and randomly select one point on that distribution (preferred) ... The results of each simulated race is compiled.

I think it's a toss-up with a bunch of teams that could make the podium ... There is definitely talent to challenge the top teams ... and maybe half the teams could challenge for a podium spot with a great performance.

NXN Nationals is a special race because all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish that bad" ... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses are really good ... and sometimes it is harder to pick who will finish last than who will finish first.

As noted above, some of the teams are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams (this includes injuries, sickness, bad luck, etc.) ... This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.

Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and predicting the exact order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note: I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off" races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run well).

Remember ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up significantly in projected finish-positions.

Some Individual Team Comments:

American Fork UT ... American Fork is the Utah State 6A Champion and they won NXR Southwest by 42 points ... They seem to peak at the right time of the season ... American Fork is frequent competitor at NXN Nationals ... They finished 5th at NXN last year, 7th in 2018, 2nd in 2015, 5th in 2014, 7th in 2013 and 2nd in 2012 ... They return 5 of their top 6 from last year's NXN including their top runner (Daniel Simmons) ... American Fork has shown excellent ability this season, and combined with NXN experience, makes them one of the favorites.

Christian Brothers Academy NJ ... Christian Brothers is a another frequent competitor at NXN Nationals ... Christian Brothers was 2nd in 2013, 4th in 2012 and won NXN in 2011 ... They finished 18th at NXN last year (but some team sickness was rumored at NXN) ... This year's team has performed exceptionally well ... They are the New Jersey Meet of Champions and NXR Northeast Champions ... Christian Brothers is one of the morning-line favorites and a definite threat to win or podium.

Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll has raced well all season ... They won NXR South by 69 points, and are the Texas State 6A Champions ...  Southlake Carroll finished 20th at NXN last year (but some team sickness hampered their chances to podium) ... In September at the Woodbridge Classic in California, Southlake Carroll finished 2nd to NXN qualifier Herriman, but beat Great Oak, Crater, and San Clemente ... Southlake Carroll is a legitimate contender to win NXN.

Herriman UT ... Herriman finished 2nd to American Fork at the Utah State 6A Championship (by 6 points) and 2nd at NXR Southwest (by 42 points) ... Herriman finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year with a very nice performance on the NXN course, and they return 3 runners from that race (but they have a deep team) ... I under-rated Herriman going into NXN Nationals last year ... So this year I'm giving Herriman extra credit on their actual speed rating prediction place.

Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep is the Florida State 3A Champion and they won NXR Southeast by 127 points ... Belen Jesuit finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year and return four runners from that race ... Belen Jesuit has been posting excellent speed ratings all season and are a real contender to podium or win.

San Clemente CA ... San Clemente was the top team in the California State Meet Merge ... San Clemente finished 7th at last year's NXN Nationals and return 4 runners from that race ... San Clemente has been racing very well recently and are a potential podium contender.

Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills was 2nd the California State Meet Merge ... Dana Hills did not race at last year's NXN Nationals ... A very good performance puts Dana Hills in contention for a podium spot.

Westfield NJ ... Westfield finished 2nd the New Jersey Meet of Champions (to Christian Brothers) and 2nd at NXR Northeast ... Westfield did not race at last year's NXN Nationals ... Westfield has posted some very good speed ratings this season.

Crater OR ... Crater is the Oregon State 5A Champion and they finished 2nd to Coeur d'Alene at NXR Northwest (by 5 points) ... Crater finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year and return 5 runners from that race ... Crater might have a "home team" advantage with the race in Oregon, but that doesn't always work out ... I'm giving them the "local" benefit of the doubt like last year.

Coeur d'Alene ID ... Coeur d'Alene is the Idaho State 5A Champion and they won NXR Northwest (by 5 points over Crater) ... Coeur d'Alene did not race at last year's NXN Nationals ... They have had an excellent XC season ... and they could better this projection! 

Riverton UT ... Riverton finished 4th to American Fork at the Utah State 6A Championship and then finished 3rd at NXR Southwest having a slightly better team time average than 2nd-place Herriman ... Riverton did not race at NXN Nationals last year, but did win the RunningLane Championship.

Great Oak CA ... Great Oak CA, another frequent competitor at NXN ... Great Oak finished 6th at NXN last year ... they also finished 2nd to Newbury Park in 2019 (losing by only 4 points) and were 2nd in 2018 (losing to Loudoun Valley VA) ... Great Oak did win NXN in 2015 at this course, so they are capable of running well Glendoveer.

Individual Race Comments:

The table below lists the top runners at NXN 2023 by best speed rating ... Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a team competing at NXN).

47 Runners have a seasonal speed rating of 190 or higher, and 10 have a speed rating of 195 or higher ... This is a great race.

This race has many runners capable of exceptional performances and challenging for the top positions ... Many runners are in contention for a top 10 position.

Not certain what the course conditions and weather will be at race time ... When writing this, the extended forecast calls for some rain over the next few days and a "real feel" near 48 degrees on race day ... It can be hard to guess who will be helped or hurt by the conditions ... and the tactics of the race is another fun handicapping factor.

Daniel Simmons does not have the highest speed rating entering the race, but he did finish 2nd at last year's NXN race with a speed rating of 202 ... and that makes Daniel Simmons the morning-line favorite (and he is undefeated this season).

But there are some serious challengers in this race ... Byron Grevious and Nathan Neil have the highest seasonal speed ratings entering the race, and both looked exceptionally good winning their respective NXR regional races ... Other runners are capable of big performances and could surprise.

Could be a great & interesting race ... Just like the team race, this could be a very interesting pari-mutuel betting race, especially the gimmick wagers.

 
Top Individual Boys Runners (Both Team & Individual):  

                                                                Best           Overall   Individual race Speed Ratings
 Name                  Grade  School                State    Speed Rating      Rating       (most recent first)
 --------------------  -----  -------------------   -----    ------------      ------  -------------------------------------
 Byron Grevious          12   Phillips Exeter Acad    NH     199.07   199        196   (199 188 191)
 Nathan Neil             12   Bozeman                 MT     197.47   197        196   (197 194 192 191 192)
 Robert Mechura          11   Roseville Area          MN     196.33   196        194   (196 190 187 193 188)
 Manny Putz              11   Onalaska                WI     196.30   196        194   (196 191 192 188 176 186)
 Juan Gonzalez           11   Fremont                 NE     195.73   196        193   (190 196 189 189 185)
 Ethan Edgeworth         12   Cold Springs            AL     195.57   196        193   (192 196 191 189 186 189)
 Daniel Simmons          12   American Fork           UT     195.29   195 -TEAM- 194   (195 194 190 186 189 188 192 194)
 Joe Barrett             11   Christian Brothers Acad NJ     195.00   195 -TEAM- 193   (188 193 195 192 189 189)
 Sam Scott               12   Minneapolis Southwest   MN     194.87   195        192   (186 195 189 188 189 193 190 190)
 Emmanuel Perez          12   Cathedral (SS)          CA     194.80   195        193   (194 185 193 195 191 181)
 Noah Valyo              12   Athens Drive            NC     194.40   194        193   (194 191 194 189 185)
 Cameron Todd            12   Brebeuf Jesuit Prep     IN     194.40   194        193   (192 194 193 185 193 186 187 183)
 Clay Shively            12   Wichita Trinity Acad    KS     194.03   194        193   (194 177 194 188)
 Nolan McGinn            12   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY     193.73   194        192   (191 191 194 186 188 190 188)
 Lucas Cohen             12   Albany (NC)             CA     193.70   194        192   (194 183 188)
 Broen Holman            11   Sonora (SJ)             CA     193.53   194        193   (194 190 193 183)
 Will Conway             12   Floyd Central           IN     193.40   193        191   (193 190 185 188 185 177 184 181)
 Jimmy Wischusen         12   Union Catholic Reg      NJ     193.37   193        192   (193 189 189)
 Dylon Nalley            12   Marion (H.S.)           IL     193.33   193        191   (193 190 185 188 185 177 184 181)
 Tommy Latham            11   Marist                  GA     193.10   193        191   (192 177 193 188 189 185)
 Berkley Nance           12   Mills Godwin            VA     192.93   193        192   (192 193 186 190 188)
 JoJo Jourdon            12   Olympus                 UT     192.67   193        191   (192 190 177 180 193 189 184)
 Eli Fitchen-Young       11   Santa Cruz (CC)         CA     192.50   193        191   (193 189 185)
 Landon Heemeyer         12   Rocky Mountain          ID     192.33   192        190   (192 188 185 183 187 187 179)
 James Partlow           12   Gov. Thomas Johnson     MD     192.17   192        190   (192 188 185 178)
 Steven Hergenrother     12   Ridgefield              CT     192.10   192        191   (192 189 189 188 190 180)
 Joshua Bell             12   Templeton (CS)          CA     192.10   192        191   (192 187 192 188)
 TJ Hansen               11   Freeland                MI     192.03   192        192   (192 191 183)
 Marcelo Mantecon        9    Belen Jesuit Prep       FL     192.00   192 -TEAM- 188   (176 188 192 187 185 181 178)
 Colin Eckerman          12   Webb Sch of Knoxville   TN     191.82   192        191   (192 191 192 186 184)
 Avery Keith             12   Westfield HS            NJ     191.77   192 -TEAM- 190   (192 186 189 179 182 185)
 Aden Bandukwala         12   Hinsdale (Central)      IL     191.40   191        188   (191 187 178 170 176 175)
 Jack Henzke             12   Seattle Preparatory     WA     191.33   191        186   (191 179 166 170)
 Luke Pash               11   Ridgewood HS            NJ     191.13   191        189   (191 183 188 181 176)
 Samuel Ghiz             12   Riverton                UT     191.12   191 -TEAM- 185   (191 174 175 180 178 183 162 175 170)
 Austin Westfall         12   Orem                    UT     190.92   191        190   (191 189 185 191 188 179 184)
 Porter Middaugh         12   Battle Mountain         CO     190.86   191        188   (191 185 181 177 180)
 Aloysius Franzen        12   Stevens Point           WI     190.47   190 -TEAM- 190   (188 190 190 187 190)
 Tayvon Kitchen          11   Crater                  OR     190.37   190 -TEAM- 189   (190 189 181 184 182)
 Conor Clifford          12   Christian Brothers Acad NJ     190.37   190 -TEAM- 187   (190 185 183 177 178 178 181)
 Kyle Steadman           11   Mountain View           UT     190.36   190        187   (190 182 178 186 184 187 184 180)
 Parker Mong             12   Anacortes               WA     190.30   190        188   (190 183 185 180 180)
 Joshua Ruiz             12   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL     190.13   190 -TEAM- 186   (185 174 188 190 190 181 183)
 Jack Meier              12   West Salem              OR     190.10   190        189   (190 190 183 188 181 184)
 Jason Parra             12   Millikan (SS)           CA     190.07   190        189   (190 189 186 186 181 176)
 Aydon Stefanopoulos     11   Los Gatos (CC)          CA     189.53   190        187   (190 181 180)
 Noah Laughlin-Hall      12   Summit                  OR     189.50   190        188   (190 187 184 182 182)
 Joseph Bariola          12   Lakeside (HS)           AR     189.37   189        188   (187 189 181 184 186 185)
 Caden Leonard           10   Southlake Carroll       TX     188.97   189 -TEAM- 188   (188 189 184 188 183 182 179)
 Adam Burlison           12   Lubbock Coronado        TX     188.93   189        189   (189)


Where the BOYS Team Scores came from (in part) ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets) 


Team Runners and Ratings by Team (alphabetical):

                                                                             Individual race Speed Ratings
 Name                   Gr   School                State  Overall Rating       (most recent first)
 =====================  ==   ===============       =====  ==============    =====================================

 Daniel Simmons         12   American Fork           UT    194.51   195     195 194 190 186 189 188 192 194
 Kaden Evans            11   American Fork           UT    182.45   182     181 186 178 179 178 175 177
 Chase Pack             12   American Fork           UT    182.34   182     181 185 181 179 175 173 178 169
 Ben Jaster             12   American Fork           UT    181.49   181     184 175 175 177 178
 Ben Bradshaw           12   American Fork           UT    177.58   178     175 181 173 174 171 173 174
 Maxwell Orr            12   American Fork           UT    175.32   175     176 171 175 172 175 174 176 171
 Noah Nielson           12   American Fork           UT    173.51   174     175 174 173 167 163 163 158

 Ryan Maher             10   Auburn                  NY    181.49   181     179 182 182 180 180 176 180 177 173
 Owen Gasper            10   Auburn                  NY    173.03   173     174 169 170 172 176 165 170 172 168
 Austin Ferrin          11   Auburn                  NY    173.10   173     171 175 174 171 176 166 170 163 166
 Christopher Howard     12   Auburn                  NY    171.68   172     168 169 169 168 174 171 181 177 164
 Keegan Brady           12   Auburn                  NY    162.81   163     163 156 165 157 160 155 162 154 146
 Jerry Czyz             12   Auburn                  NY    157.04   157     143 153 163 161 156 137 160 159 153 147
 Sean Ringwood          9    Auburn                  NY    142.89   143     138 140 143 147 139 153 138 132 140 133

 Marcelo Mantecon       9    Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    187.51   188     176 188 192 187 185 181 178
 Joshua Ruiz            12   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    186.06   186     185 174 188 190 190 181 183
 Joseph Ruiz            12   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    180.81   181     183 178 180 178 176 173 172
 Justin Ruiz            11   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    177.82   178     178 175 179 179 175 176 167
 Evan Torres            12   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    173.43   173     169 172 176 172 168 171 172
 Diego Magarino         11   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    165.06   165     150 155 169 169 164 168 173
 Joseph Socarras        11   Belen Jesuit Prep       FL    155.87   156     150 151 147 174

 James American Horse   12   Bentonville             AR    180.71   181     182 178 180 176 177
 Matthew Shelly         11   Bentonville             AR    178.84   179     178 182 168 173 174
 Owen Kelley            11   Bentonville             AR    178.48   178     177 181 174 176 167
 Eli Seavey             12   Bentonville             AR    173.51   174     175 167 171 173 174
 Payton Brack           12   Bentonville             AR    168.31   168     166 170 163 168 167
 Ryan Fernstrom         11   Bentonville             AR    164.70   165     168 159 161 159 161
 Carter Beasley         11   Bentonville             AR    152.92   153     151 153 148 154

 Joe Barrett            11   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    192.91   193     188 193 195 192 189 189
 Conor Clifford         12   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    187.01   187     190 185 183 177 178 178 181
 Jack Falkowski         12   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    186.08   186     185 179 188 173 187 188
 Alex Kemp              12   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    179.25   179     174 180 179 180 172 180
 Alex Mastroly          11   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    179.01   179     180 179 179 177 175 173
 Wyatt Falkowski        10   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    177.43   177     178 174 173 176 177 180
 Brady Barber           12   Christian Brothers Acad NJ    176.68   177     176 177 177 171 175 177

 Max Cervi-Skinner      11   Coeur d'Alene           ID    183.87   184     186 182 182 179 180 179 177
 Jacob King             12   Coeur d'Alene           ID    181.96   182     185 178 176 176 180 175 176
 Lachlan May            12   Coeur d'Alene           ID    176.41   176     161 174 184 180 173 166 171
 Mitchell Rietze        10   Coeur d'Alene           ID    174.41   174     176 174 170 165 173 162 150
 Wyatt Carr             9    Coeur d'Alene           ID    173.83   174     176 165 173 169 170 165 167
 Zackery Cervi-Skinner  11   Coeur d'Alene           ID    171.53   172     172 171 168 164 168 170 171
 Kyle Rohlinger         11   Coeur d'Alene           ID    161.12   161     150 164 161 159 158 162 162

 Tayvon Kitchen         11   Crater                  OR    189.27   189     190 189 181 184 182
 Josiah Tostenson       11   Crater                  OR    185.49   185     174 187 167 185 169
 Shaun Garnica          12   Crater                  OR    178.90   179     179 178 174 180 171
 Caleb Doddington       12   Crater                  OR    176.90   177     182 172 153 163 168
 Grant Headley          11   Crater                  OR    169.74   170     172 167 157 158 165
 Ivar Hokanson          11   Crater                  OR    163.87   164     164 165 158 158 159
 Nathan Goode           9    Crater                  OR    149.67   150     147 151 141

 Evan Noonan            11   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    194.99   195     197 189 187 194 192 194
 Jayden Hernandez       12   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    184.46   184     184 184 185 183
 Garrett Woodruff       12   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    177.90   178     178 176 179 179 166 170
 Logan Harris           12   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    177.24   177     180 170 174 173 159 173
 Oliver Hunter          10   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    176.00   176     179 174 171 165 158 163
 Joel Brda              12   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    166.90   167     170 153 164
 Mike Ayala             12   Dana Hills (SS)         CA    161.57   162     161 162 159 161 150 162

 Ryan Eddington         12   Downers Grove North     IL    180.18   180     182 179 170 178 170
 Philip Cupial          10   Downers Grove North     IL    179.51   180     180 182 161 171 168
 Grant Schroder         11   Downers Grove North     IL    177.84   178     175 180 170 178 170
 Caden Weber            12   Downers Grove North     IL    175.79   176     175 172 178 159
 Zachary Bender         12   Downers Grove North     IL    174.66   175     175 176 163 169 160
 Will Surratt           10   Downers Grove North     IL    171.61   172     171 175 161 162 160
 Isaac Moss             12   Downers Grove North     IL    169.97   170     170 171 158 167 165

 Zafer Courcelle        11   Franklin                OR    183.79   184     185 184 175 178 177
 Brennan McEwen         11   Franklin                OR    179.11   179     179 180 172 180 170
 Emil Nelson            12   Franklin                OR    176.99   177     177 178 170 160
 Leaf McQuillen         11   Franklin                OR    172.76   173     175 170 164 163 169
 Rowan Haywood-O'Neill  12   Franklin                OR    170.14   170     169 170 170 153
 Rowan Horner           12   Franklin                OR    166.92   167     161 169 164 167
 Alex Emert             11   Franklin                OR    136.32   136     136 137 132 128 130

 Gabriel Rodriguez      12   Great Oak (SS)          CA    183.11   183     183 177 184 180 184
 Jacob Brown            11   Great Oak (SS)          CA    179.14   179     183 175 167 175 175 172 157
 Jeffrey Keeney         12   Great Oak (SS)          CA    178.58   179     181 176 177 175 173 167 158
 Jack Paradise          11   Great Oak (SS)          CA    177.91   178     174 176 182 177 176 171 157
 Michael Rodriguez      12   Great Oak (SS)          CA    171.56   172     172 169 167 174 161
 Kai Marotta            12   Great Oak (SS)          CA    170.63   171     165 172 171 165 167 172 153
 Marco Franco           10   Great Oak (SS)          CA    160.17   160     162 158 153 158 139

 William Steadman       12   Herriman                UT    181.18   181     181 174 179 179 182 185 187 181 179
 Jonah Tang             11   Herriman                UT    180.52   181     181 182 176 175 178 180 177 173 169 167
 Jack Beckstrom         12   Herriman                UT    180.02   180     178 182 179 174 180 179 177 170
 Maxwell Hofheins       12   Herriman                UT    179.96   180     180 180 177 175 177 177 165 175 168
 Tayshaun Ogomo         11   Herriman                UT    179.95   180     179 182 176 177 181 179 179 176 173
 Micah Tang             11   Herriman                UT    176.80   177     174 179 175 173 173 181 174 172 168 159
 Hyrum Wood             12   Herriman                UT    174.81   175     173 177 175 171 168 174 173 173 168

 Oliver Jibb            12   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    181.98   182     180 183 183 174 170 179 168 169 167 155
 Shane Golio            11   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    181.51   182     182 182 180 172 175 171 165 168 163 147
 Gavin Catherwood       11   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    176.52   177     173 178 178 173 170 170 165 168 159 146
 Devon Ryan             11   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    170.73   171     170 169 172 170 169 168 163 161
 Ronaldo Rodriguez Perez11   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    161.49   161     160 162 163 155 147 157 150 151 146 126
 Vincent Costello       11   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    157.53   158     152 160 161 152 154 153 148 135 141 127 125
 Jason Saldanha         12   Monroe-Woodbury         NY    145.18   145     141 146 145 149 143 142 140 124

 Jack Wallace           11   Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    175.10   175     176 174 167
 Samuel Trumble         12   Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    174.23   174     175 172 161 176
 Jp Newman              9    Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    169.52   170     170 170 157 150
 Gabe Guillamondegui    9    Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    166.12   166     168 164 158 151
 Mitchell Chaffin       12   Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    164.19   164     161 167 159 158
 Charlie Warner         11   Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    147.10   147     151 142 138 130
 Jack Farringer         11   Montgomery Bell Acad    TN    136.10   136     138 128

 Rocco Culpepper        10   Niwot                   CO    183.47   183     183 186 168 183 169
 Cole Mazurana          11   Niwot                   CO    175.69   176     171 180 166 175 163 165
 Ryder Keeton           10   Niwot                   CO    174.74   175     174 176 162 162 165 149
 Quinn Sullivan         9    Niwot                   CO    174.28   174     175 167 163 181 167 160
 Hunter Robbie          10   Niwot                   CO    172.11   172     173 171 163 162 171 167 155
 Keegan Geldean         11   Niwot                   CO    170.97   171     172 168 162 165 174 148 150
 Gabriel Marshall       10   Niwot                   CO    159.96   160     157 164 154 149 137

 Thomas Czerwinski      10   Plainfield North        IL    181.94   182     181 185 175 178 175
 Owen Stahl             12   Plainfield North        IL    177.05   177     178 177 174 169 170
 Quinn Davis            11   Plainfield North        IL    176.74   177     177 178 166 171 175
 Aidan Connors          10   Plainfield North        IL    169.80   170     170 172 156 157 159
 James Maso             10   Plainfield North        IL    167.52   168     169 169 147 143
 Easton Miller          12   Plainfield North        IL    167.50   168     168 169 155 148 159
 Gavin Hall             10   Plainfield North        IL    162.95   163     161 167 156 154 155

 Samuel Ghiz            12   Riverton                UT    184.81   185     191 174 175 180 178 183 162 175 170
 Andrew Ludwig          12   Riverton                UT    181.61   181     186 156 180 180 174 171 168 168
 Corbin Randall         11   Riverton                UT    180.51   181     183 178 176 177 177 169 163 170 158
 Gage Helm              12   Riverton                UT    170.67   171     173 168 167 157 168
 Luke Horner            12   Riverton                UT    169.90   170     173 166 164 165 149 159 168 155
 Helm Gage              12   Riverton                UT    168.39   168     169 169 141
 Tyson Gubler           10   Riverton                UT    162.24   162     167 157 156 152 153 149 159 144

 Brett Ephraim          12   San Clemente (SS)       CA    187.72   188     189 184 188 181 179 186 179
 Taj Clark              12   San Clemente (SS)       CA    181.23   181     185 178 174 175 172 175 173
 Pierce Clark           12   San Clemente (SS)       CA    180.78   181     183 175 181 175 178 173 169
 Dallin Harrington      10   San Clemente (SS)       CA    177.43   177     179 173 177 176 167 171 168
 Kai Olsen              12   San Clemente (SS)       CA    177.42   177     179 178 159 174 170 165 167
 Isaac Gould            12   San Clemente (SS)       CA    164.80   165     169 160 157 157 158 154 154
 Yohan Anderson         9    San Clemente (SS)       CA    154.62   155     156 154 147 139

 Caden Leonard          10   Southlake Carroll       TX    188.07   188     188 189 184 188 183 182 179
 Blake Bullard          11   Southlake Carroll       TX    183.33   183     183 186 174 179 178 182 176
 Jude Alvarez           12   Southlake Carroll       TX    182.79   183     184 181 178 182 184 176 177
 Zach Troutman          12   Southlake Carroll       TX    180.29   180     182 179 172 181 169 175 175
 Griffin Cords          11   Southlake Carroll       TX    175.57   176     180 171 162 176 166 162 163
 Ryan Van de Berghe     12   Southlake Carroll       TX    172.69   173     171 174 166 165 171 175 171
 Alex Severson          11   Southlake Carroll       TX    168.17   168     154 169 163 177 171 167 164

 Aloysius Franzen       12   Stevens Point           WI    189.86   190     188 190 190 187 190
 Ethan Olds             11   Stevens Point           WI    179.80   180     182 178 173 172 160
 Cooper Erickson        10   Stevens Point           WI    175.50   176     175 177 171 169 160
 Graham Ballard         11   Stevens Point           WI    171.62   172     172 174 164 157 141
 Bode Erickson          12   Stevens Point           WI    170.47   170     169 172 160
 Andrew Dziak           11   Stevens Point           WI    165.69   166     163 168 165 155 158
 Cooper Gunderson       12   Stevens Point           WI    161.67   162     165 159 146 130

 Will Weber             11   Wayzata                 MN    184.34   184     185 184 182 182 183 183 172 177
 Daniel Mccollor        12   Wayzata                 MN    178.55   179     179 180 177 178 174 171 171 176
 Tyler Kissell          12   Wayzata                 MN    177.70   178     179 177 177 172 165 171 169
 Hayes McMillan         12   Wayzata                 MN    172.51   173     174 174 168 169 167 164 164
 Alexander Haag         11   Wayzata                 MN    161.51   162     160 163 163 160 159 149 158 156
 Parker Dietrick        12   Wayzata                 MN    160.52   161     163 154 156 155 157
 Daniel Salatino        11   Wayzata                 MN    159.52   160     160 149 162 159 159 156 133

 Avery Keith            12   Westfield HS            NJ    189.62   190     192 186 189 179 182 185
 Jimmy Gildea           12   Westfield HS            NJ    180.13   180     180 177 181 176 177 181
 Ryan Daly              11   Westfield HS            NJ    179.81   180     179 179 181 170 178 175
 Tage Mehta             12   Westfield HS            NJ    178.17   178     180 177 167 171 172 176
 Alexander Valencia     12   Westfield HS            NJ    176.05   176     178 173 175 170 162 161
 Eamon Mason            12   Westfield HS            NJ    172.04   172     160 167 181 170 180 177
 Graham Korins          12   Westfield HS            NJ    167.27   167     167 156 165 172 170

 
                                                               ------------------------------------
 ----------------------------------------------------                 Team Scores Based on
   Team Scores Based on NXN Regional Speed Ratings                  State Meet Speed Ratings
 ----------------------------------------------------          ------------------------------------

 1   Niwot                  CO    131    (Southwest )          1   Air Academy            CO     83
 2   Air Academy            CO    163    (Southwest )          2   Niwot                  CO    137
 3   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA    192    (California)          3   Lone Peak              UT    139
 4   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA    207    (California)          4   Flower Mound           TX    188
 5   Tatnall                DE    216    (Southeast )          5   Union Catholic         NJ    205
 6   Mountain Vista         CO    234    (Southwest )          6   Saratoga Springs       NY    206
 7   Flower Mound           TX    238    (South     )          7   Tatnall                DE    213
 8   Saratoga Springs       NY    238    (New York  )          8   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA    233
 9   Buchanan (CS)          CA    251    (California)          9   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA    240
 10  Union Catholic         NJ    263    (Northeast )          10  Buchanan (CS)          CA    248
 11  Lone Peak              UT    276    (Southwest )          11  Jesuit Portland        OR    250
 12  North Allegheny        PA    276    (Northeast )          12  York                   IL    308
 13  Assumption             KY    281    (Southeast )          13  Downers Grove North    IL    330
 14  Prospect               IL    286    (Midwest   )          14  Southlake Carroll      TX    337
 15  Downers Grove North    IL    328    (Midwest   )          15  Lincoln HS             OR    346
 16  York                   IL    353    (Midwest   )          16  Prospect               IL    381
 17  Jesuit Portland        OR    378    (Northwest )          17  Assumption             KY    384
 18  Wayzata                MN    382    (Heartland )          18  Bethlehem              NY    389
 19  Lincoln HS             OR    384    (Northwest )          19  North Allegheny        PA    431
 20  Southlake Carroll      TX    411    (South     )          20  Wayzata                MN    447
 21  Bethlehem              NY    425    (New York  )          21  Mountain Vista         CO    452
 22  Olathe West            KS    438    (Heartland )          22  Olathe West            KS    464

    ** Note - California State Meet was used for the NXR Regional ratings above and the
         CIF Section Final for the "State Meet" ratings above since no NXR meet in California.

		

Pre-Race Comments ... Niwot and Air Academy are the two favorites based on the speed rating numbers ... Very little separates the two teams, and it is basically a toss-up with Niwot getting a slight advantage due to winning NXR Southwest over Air Academy ... Other contenders are not that far behind and could surprise with a great performance.

The table above lists the team scores based on the speed ratings from the NXR qualifiers and respective State Meets ... Niwot and Air Academy top both those lists ... Lone Peak raced very nicely at the Utah State Meet, but were missing their top runner at NXR Southwest who is expected to be racing at NXN Nationals (I hope).

The table above also shows how some team performances can vary significantly from one race to another ... For example, Mountain Vista finished only 5th at the Colorado State Meet 5A race (a major "off" race) and then finished 3rd at NXR Southwest ... Results like this makes handicapping interesting.

The computer simulations for the Girl's projections above were interesting (computer simulations are explained briefly in the Boy's section above) ... JSerra Catholic, Flower Mound and Tatnall were hard to separate due to various factors ... So I placed them even-up at the #3, #4 and #5 places ... Tatnall is slightly favored for finishing 3rd based on top 5 scorers only, but if any of their 5 scorers has an "off" day, they drop significantly, and the computer simulations noted this, so by overall probability Tatnall was placed 5th.

Lone Peak could be placed as high as 3rd or behind the next grouping of teams ... depends if their top runner races and races effectively ... so the projection "middles" their prediction as a compromise.

The next 5 teams in the projection (places 7 through 11) varied widely in the simulations ... one runner having a good or bad race can change the team finish significantly ... So exact places are a guess ... I decided Saratoga should be placed 7th due to their success at NXN (and they are from NY) ... The simulation probabilities put Mountain Vista at the end of this group due to performance at their State Meet.

Sometimes the final scores look "off" to me, so I check ... For example, I was expecting JSerra Catholic and Santiago Corona to be very close, but there was some separation ... Final scores are often determined by who else is in the race and how runners from other teams displace runners from teams under consideration ... I found out that displacement at the #4 and #5 scoring positions was the reason ... many team runners occur at those speed rating levels and affect the scores ... The final scores projected above are just an overall compilation which is why predicting exact scores is a guessing game ... BUT knowing the probabilities help with betting when you see the betting odds at pari-mutuel venues like horse tracks ... Which is why speed ratings exist.

Based computer simulated races, I think half the field is in contention to finish in the top three teams that make the podium!

Some Individual Team Comments:

Niwot CO ... Niwot won NXR Southwest and is the Colorado State 4A Champion ... Niwot finished 2nd at last year's NXN Championship and return 4 runners from that race (including 3 scorers) ... Niwot is deep and talented, and has raced very well this season ... They beat Air Academy at NXR Southwest, and maybe that gives Niwot a slight advantage since they have raced well before at the NXN course.

Air Academy CO ... Air Academy was 2nd NXR Southwest and is the Colorado State 5A Champion ... Air Academy finished 7th at last year's NXN Championship and return 5 runners from that race (including the top 4 scorers) ... Air Academy was ranked #1 in the nation for much of season ... and is definitely one of the favorites to win.

JSerra Catholic CA ... JSerra Catholic was the top team in California State Meet Merge (only 1 point ahead of Santiago Corona and 13 points ahead of Buchanan) ... I was a bit surprised the computer simulations placed JSerra that far ahead of Santiago Corona overall, but it resulted from finishes at the #4 and #5 scoring positions (so it is a probability guess) ... JSerra Catholic finished 21st at last year's NXN Championship and return 3 runners from that team (the top 3 scorers) and add some good new talent.

Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound won NXR South handily ... They are the Texas 6A State Champion ... Flower Mound finished 6th at last year's NXN Championship and return all 5 scorers ... A real challenger to finish on the podium.

Tatnall DE ... Tatnall won NXR Southeast handily ... They are the Delaware D2 State Champion ... Tatnall won the Manhattan Eastern States Championship race impressively ... A real challenger to finish on the podium ... But the team is only 5 deep at the national level.

Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished  4th at NXR Southwest and were selected as an At-Large team ... Their top runner from the Utah State Meet did not race at NXR Southwest due to an injury (but is expected to race at NXN Nationals ... she is in the entries) ... Lone Peak won the Utah State 6A Championship by scoring only 19 points (and had a scoring speed rating average of 132.7 which makes them a serious contender) ... I think they might be very good at NXN Nationals.

Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga won the initial NXN (NTN) National race in 2004 at Portland Meadows ... Saratoga is the defending NXN Champion from 2022 and 2019  ... Once again, Saratoga handily won the NY State Meet (Class A), the NY Federation Championship and NXR New York this year ... Saratoga returns their #1, #3 and #5 scorers from last year's NXN Nationals ... Saratoga races very well at the NXN course, so maybe they will surprise some people.

Buchanan CA ... Buchanan finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge, and were selected as an At-Large team ... Buchanan finished 3rd at last year's NXN Championship and return 5 runners ... Buchanan finished 5th at NXN 2019 showing an ability race on a sloppy course at NXN ...  Buchanan is very good ... some inconsistent finishes are a concern, and they can definitely finish better than the #8 projection.

Union Catholic NJ ... Union Catholic is the New Jersey Meet of Champions and NXR Northeast Champion ...  Union Catholic finished 22nd at last year's NXN Championship and return 3 runners, but add some very good new talent ... If all of their girls can race well, they will surprise some people.

Santiago Corona CA ... Santiago Corona finished 2nd in the California State Meet Merge (only 1 point behind JSerra Catholic) ... Santiago Corona did not race at last year's NXN Championship ... and that lack of experience compared to most other teams here is the only reason they are projected #10 rather than higher ... I will not be surprised if they finish in the top 5.

Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished a very good 3rd at NXR Southwest and were selected as an At-Large team ... Mountain Vista had an "off" race at the Colorado State Meet, but they are a very talented team ... It is possible that all 4 Southwest teams could finish in the top 8 places.

Individual Race Comments:

I enjoy saying this every year - This year's race is once again deep and talented ... 19 girls have a speed rating of 150 or higher ... 9 of the top 10 girls in the nation having the highest speed ratings (at this time) are in this race (including the top 4).

As can be seen in the Table below (best speed ratings), the majority of top runners in this race are competing as individuals, but a fair number are running on a team.

Based on previous races this season, I'm expecting Elizabeth Leachman and Rachel Forsyth may set a fast early pace ... Sadie Engelhardt could be following behind letting them do the early work ... The course conditions and weather may have an effect on the race, but I do not know who might be helped or hindered ... I will be interested in seeing how close the chase pack stays behind the leaders.

Elizabeth Leachman, Rachel Forsyth, Sadie Engelhardt and Rylee Blade have performed very well this season (as have others) ... and Bethany Michalak finished 3rd at NXN last year on this course (with a 161 speed rating).

I think the top 5 to 10 spots overall are open to a bunch of runners below ... Leachman, Forsyth and Engelhardt are the morning-line favorites ... But I would love to see the pari-mutuel betting odds on them and some others ... It will be interesting to see how the 8th-grader (Gianna Rahmer) performs in a top-caliber national race.

This is a very high-quality race.

 
Top Individual Girls Runners (Both Team & Individual):  

                                                                Best           Overall   Individual race Speed Ratings
 Name                  Grade  School                State    Speed Rating      Rating       (most recent first)
 --------------------  -----  -------------------   -----    ------------      ------  -------------------------------------
 Elizabeth Leachman      10   Boerne Champion         TX     165.47   165        162   (159 165 163 155 158 161 157 159 156)
 Rachel Forsyth          12   Ann Arbor Pioneer       MI     160.63   161        160   (156 161 161 153 159 155 153 144)
 Sadie Engelhardt        11   Ventura (SS)            CA     159.07   159        158   (156 159 157 156)
 Bethany Michalak        12   Air Academy             CO     157.70   158 -TEAM- 151   (149 135 152 158 151 134)
 Rylee Blade             11   Santiago Corona (SS)    CA     157.07   157 -TEAM- 156   (154 157 155 154 142)
 Allie Zealand           12   Pacers Homeschool       VA     156.57   157        156   (153 157)
 Emily Bush              12   Saratoga                NY     156.57   157 -TEAM- 150   (149 145 157 146 146 142 145)
 Emily Wisniewski        11   Crescent Valley         OR     156.30   156        156   (156 156 153 156 149 146 141)
 Logan Hofstee           12   East Valley             WA     156.10   156        152   (156 146 146 140 140)
 Addison Ritzenhein      10   Niwot                   CO     154.67   155 -TEAM- 153   (150 152 155 152 142)
 Maddie Gardiner         12   The Covenant School     VA     152.30   152        148   (152 144 135 134 131)
 Hanne Thomsen           11   Montgomery (NC)         CA     152.00   152        148   (147 148 142 152 142)
 Anna Callahan           12   Skyline                 WA     151.73   152        147   (152 137 141 140)
 Samantha Humphries      12   Flower Mound            TX     151.00   151 -TEAM- 148   (151 140 144 140 147 140 143)
 Gianna Rahmer           8    Eldorado                NM     150.81   151        151   (151 151)
 Libby Dowty             10   Indian Creek            IN     150.77   151        147   (145 145 151 142 149 143 124 124)
 Isabel Allori           12   Liberty Common          CO     150.44   150        148   (150 144 146 144)
 Macy Wingard            10   Denton Braswell         TX     150.00   150        147   (146 150 145 145 141 139)
 San Juanita Leal        12   Edinburg North          TX     149.80   150        148   (147 150 148 130)
 Isabella Keller         9    Effingham (St. Anthony) IL     149.80   150        147   (145 144 150)
 Katelyn Rupe            11   Salina Central          KS     149.03   149        147   (147 142 149 145 146)
 Nelah Roberts           12   Skyline                 ID     148.98   149        148   (148 149 138 128 131)
 Holly Barker            11   Trabuco Hills (SS)      CA     148.33   148        147   (148 146 144 148)
 Reese Dalton            12   The Covenant School     VA     148.00   148        147   (148 148 136 146 133)
 Paige Sheppard          9    Union Catholic          NJ     147.93   148 -TEAM- 145   (148 145 141 136 135 141 130)
 Madison Peters          12   Pearland                TX     147.93   148        145   (143 148 142 138 141 140)
 Gioana Lopizzo          12   La Costa Canyon (SD)    CA     147.90   148        143   (139 136 145 148)
 Sophia McInnes          11   Bayport-BluePt          NY     147.83   148        145   (144 142 148 145 142 139 140 145)
 Ella Woehlcke           12   Mount Saint Joseph Acad PA     147.60   148        142   (148 131 106)
 Norah Hushagen          11   Forest Lake Area        MN     147.57   148        146   (148 144 142 140)
 Addison Knoblauch       12   Homestead               IN     147.00   147        145   (147 144 140 128 133 146 143)
 Julia Score             10   Bishop Chatard          IN     146.67   147        144   (143 145 139 147)
 Ella Hagen              11   Summit                  CO     146.43   146        145   (146 142 141 146 145 133 128)
 Alycia Hart             12   Saratoga                NY     145.87   146 -TEAM- 139   (138 138 136 146 128 138)
 Selma Anderson          12   Grand Rapids Ottawa Hil MI     145.47   145        145   (145 145 134 133)
 Nora Gremban            12   Northland Pines         WI     144.80   145        143   (145 138 127)
 Reagan Gilmore          12   Assumption              KY     144.60   145 -TEAM- 142   (145 135 137 131 122)
 Tessa Walter            11   Air Academy             CO     144.40   144 -TEAM- 139   (134 140 139 138 144 132)
 Anjali Hocker Singh     12   Olathe North            KS     143.93   144        143   (143 144 133 128 115)
 Jaelyn Williams         10   Eastlake (SD)           CA     143.87   144        143   (140 144)
 Libby Castelli          11   Sioux Falls O'Gorman    SD     143.70   144        143   (143 138 144 136 138)
 Payton Meineke          10   Riverdale Ridge         CO     143.17   143        142   (143 140 130 135 143 134)
 Madison Osterberg       12   Jackson Lumen Christi   MI     142.80   143        139   (116 143 134 134 126 138)
 Chloe Huyler            11   Lakeridge               OR     142.57   143        142   (143 142)
 Lily Alder              10   Timpview                UT     142.18   142        141   (142 137 135 140)
 Hannah Rae Shaffer      11   Cardinal Gibbons        NC     141.73   142        140   (141 136 139 141 142 135)


Where the Girls Team Scores came from (in part) ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets)

Team Runners and Ratings by Team (alphabetical):

                                                                             Individual race Speed Ratings
Name                    Gr   School                State  Overall Rating       (most recent first)
======================  ==   ===============       =====  ==============    ====================================

 Bethany Michalak       12   Air Academy            CO     152.00   152     149 135 152 158 151 134
 Tessa Walter           11   Air Academy            CO     139.50   139     134 140 139 138 144 132
 Emily Beers            11   Air Academy            CO     132.37   132     131 133 132 132 132 126 126 106
 Chamorra Cooper        9    Air Academy            CO     131.97   132     131 135 126 131 128 115 111
 Mariah Hook            9    Air Academy            CO     128.93   129     124 138 108 121 124 112 101
 Jordan Banta           10   Air Academy            CO     127.23   127     127 113 121 138 130 118
 Lauren Myers           10   Air Academy            CO     118.62   119     121 116 115 115 123 102 88

 Reagan Gilmore         12   Assumption             KY     141.90   142     145 135 137 131 122
 Julia Schmitt          12   Assumption             KY     131.09   131     135 123 125 120 119 119
 Leah Penick            11   Assumption             KY     125.71   126     129 121 120 112 109 97
 Mabel George           10   Assumption             KY     117.51   118     120 114 116 85 83 92
 Taryn Tracy            10   Assumption             KY     108.69   109     108 108 112 94 94 98
 Morgan White           11   Assumption             KY     108.36   108     111 99 105 103 101 76
 Lila Bensenhaver       12   Assumption             KY     103.86   104     99 102 107 93 106 85

 Logan Kuhn             10   Bethlehem              NY     126.61   127     120 128 128 125 127 117 120 124 124 121
 Katherine Bannigan     11   Bethlehem              NY     124.73   125     122 121 128 127 130 120 122 119 123 115
 Anna Chrapowitzky      9    Bethlehem              NY     123.49   123     123 120 113 122 117 130 126 125 121
 Charlotte O'Meara      11   Bethlehem              NY     122.59   123     116 120 124 131 119 128 116 118 113
 Liv Pachter            12   Bethlehem              NY     118.53   119     121 112 118 118 107 109 89
 Tess McNamara          8    Bethlehem              NY     115.30   115     109 109 117 125 117 117 115 109 105 98
 Sidney Graham          8    Bethlehem              NY     99.79    100     97 89 102 104 101 105 97 101 93

 Elliana Lomeli         11   Buchanan (CS)          CA     138.16   138     138 137
 Tayler Torosian        10   Buchanan (CS)          CA     129.40   129     132 124 117 107 130
 Kynzlee Buckley        10   Buchanan (CS)          CA     127.80   128     126 129 123 127
 Molly Sundgren         9    Buchanan (CS)          CA     127.80   128     130 125 124 121 122
 Stefania Sesock        12   Buchanan (CS)          CA     126.61   127     128 127 108 118 114
 Avery Hutchison        11   Buchanan (CS)          CA     124.59   125     127 122 117 122 114
 Sierra Cornett         11   Buchanan (CS)          CA     121.83   122     122 114 120 126

 Lily Eddington         10   Downers Grove North    IL     128.96   129     131 129 125 119 125 117
 Sarah Paul             12   Downers Grove North    IL     124.51   125     126 126 113 114 120 116 94
 Alayna Todnem          11   Downers Grove North    IL     125.52   126     127 126 111 109 117 111 92
 Ava Gilley             11   Downers Grove North    IL     121.83   122     123 121 110 108 118 113 91
 Sydney Hnatiuk         12   Downers Grove North    IL     115.64   116     118 112 106 97 101 99 72
 Hannah Renner          11   Downers Grove North    IL     106.24   106     111 100 100 77 101 83
 Pallavi Fisher         12   Downers Grove North    IL     96.99    97      104 87 83 69

 Samantha Humphries     12   Flower Mound           TX     147.60   148     151 140 144 140 147 140 143
 Alexandra Fox          11   Flower Mound           TX     139.99   140     136 136 140 141 140 134
 Nicole Humphries       12   Flower Mound           TX     135.73   136     138 131 125
 Natalie Spangher       12   Flower Mound           TX     125.00   125     122 127 118 119 124
 Ava Cole               11   Flower Mound           TX     118.66   119     116 121 113 104
 Adeline Bennett        9    Flower Mound           TX     116.57   117     117 120 111 111 87 67
 Catherine Henderson    12   Flower Mound           TX     103.17   103     106 97 95

 Emma Bennett           11   Jesuit Portland        OR     138.12   138     140 138 122 120
 Maeve O'Scannlain      9    Jesuit Portland        OR     127.52   128     128 128 118 117 99
 Liliana Hudnut         12   Jesuit Portland        OR     125.22   125     128 115 123 116
 Amalie Beil            12   Jesuit Portland        OR     122.18   122     121 125 110 120 102
 Elizabeth Welsh        9    Jesuit Portland        OR     112.69   113     116 109 101 109 95
 Maura O'Scannlain      11   Jesuit Portland        OR     110.89   111     105 115 80 111 106
 Audrey O'Neill         12   Jesuit Portland        OR     109.14   109     106 111 99 109 106

 Sophie Polay           11   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     137.80   138     139 136 135 133
 Summer Wilson          10   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     136.10   136     139 131 129 124
 Kaylah Tasser          10   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     133.79   134     133 135 125 132 128 117
 Brynn Garcia           11   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     129.73   130     129 124 131 124 132
 Reese Holley           9    JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     121.36   121     116 113 124 128 123 113
 Chloe Elbaz            10   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     115.41   115     113 113 111 123
 Anne Elise Packard     11   JSerra Catholic (SS)   CA     106.27   106     93 101 86 127 110

 Ellery Lincoln         9    Lincoln HS             OR     134.58   135     130 132 135 139 131
 Sophia Malinoski       11   Lincoln HS             OR     125.43   125     125 124 127 122 107
 Keira Saavedra         12   Lincoln HS             OR     123.10   123     122 121 119 129
 Amelia James           12   Lincoln HS             OR     118.70   119     120 118 115 109 104
 Elyse Henriksen        10   Lincoln HS             OR     116.17   116     112 116 116 120 113
 Sam Reid               11   Lincoln HS             OR     103.68   104     104 105 103 87 92 79
 Mia Gramstad           12   Lincoln HS             OR     94.75    95      91 96 95 96 90

 Andie Aagard           12   Lone Peak              UT     137.87   138     140 129 133
 Addie Meldrum          12   Lone Peak              UT     133.53   134     135 134 119 124 123 121
 Boston Bybee           11   Lone Peak              UT     131.12   131     133 131 123 117 128 122
 Maya Bybee             9    Lone Peak              UT     129.15   129     129 133 120 122 121 124 119
 Zoey Nilsson           10   Lone Peak              UT     119.28   119     122 115 117 118 96 98
 Anna Bybee             10   Lone Peak              UT     117.52   118     103 125 112 118 98 104 111
 Brielle Nilsson        10   Lone Peak              UT     114.58   115     118 98 115 104 108

 Peyton Adams           11   Mountain Vista         CO     133.42   133     137 97 129 133 129 115 119
 Claire Guiberson       10   Mountain Vista         CO     133.41   133     139 129 120 123 127 120 114 101 72
 Juliet Frum            11   Mountain Vista         CO     131.75   132     132 98 131 130 126 119 124
 Zoe Brandt             11   Mountain Vista         CO     125.90   126     121 129 128 123 117 119 108
 Marin Smith            12   Mountain Vista         CO     118.61   119     108 121 118 113 122 107
 Gabriela Boeckman      11   Mountain Vista         CO     113.47   113     106 109 119 111 113 111 96
 Carly Christians       10   Mountain Vista         CO     111.11   111     110 98 106 117 105 116 110 101 95

 Addison Ritzenhein     10   Niwot                  CO     152.94   153     150 152 155 152 142
 Olivia Alessandrini    12   Niwot                  CO     136.50   136     136 135 138 130 132
 Sarah Perkins          12   Niwot                  CO     132.48   132     131 133 134 125 119 117 96
 Mia Prok               12   Niwot                  CO     132.47   132     133 129 117 120 136 127
 Avalon Beltran         10   Niwot                  CO     131.03   131     127 129 134 125
 Anna Prok              10   Niwot                  CO     128.50   128     130 120
 Cayden Justice         12   Niwot                  CO     126.09   126     130 115 98 129 109

 Wren Kucler            11   North Allegheny        PA     139.55   140     140 139 136 130
 Eva Kynaston           12   North Allegheny        PA     136.51   137     138 137 135 127 123 103
 Robin Kucler           11   North Allegheny        PA     131.91   132     130 125 136 129 130 130 127
 Erin McGoey            12   North Allegheny        PA     121.82   122     123 120 122 115 112 100
 Camille Swirsding      11   North Allegheny        PA     103.62   104     101 98 108 105 100 99 92
 Elizabeth Pizon        11   North Allegheny        PA     95.88    96      101 89 89 87 88 86 77
 Kendall Lucas          11   North Allegheny        PA     87.44    87      77 86 69 99 89 91 89

 Bree Newport           12   Olathe West            KS     122.58   123     124 120 118 108 122
 Kalyn Willingham       12   Olathe West            KS     122.51   123     123 123 113 116 115
 Kate Miller            12   Olathe West            KS     118.99   119     122 115 115 102 110
 Liz Browning           11   Olathe West            KS     114.52   115     115 115 107 104 106
 Jasmine Stiede         11   Olathe West            KS     107.85   108     113 103 94 88 93
 Lily Brewer            11   Olathe West            KS     106.55   107     110 102 102 100 98
 Kolby Brown            12   Olathe West            KS     88.72     89      80 91 90 77

 Meg Peterson           10   Prospect               IL     132.95   133     136 130 129 116 124 126 118
 Veronica Znajda        11   Prospect               IL     132.73   133     134 131 129 132 128 117
 Lily Ginsberg          12   Prospect               IL     129.49   129     130 129 130 118 124 112
 Ireland Wildhart       11   Prospect               IL     119.40   119     119 122 111 110 110 107 103
 Sophie Fransen         11   Prospect               IL     114.51   115     117 110 111 93 114 106 96
 Kaitlin Skelton        12   Prospect               IL     102.67   103     101 107 97 94 99 98 87
 Bridget Derengowski    12   Prospect               IL     93.54    94      84 83 94 90 101 103

 Rylee Blade            11   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     155.80   156     154 157 155 154 142
 Braelyn Combe          10   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     137.85   138     138 137 137 133
 Taylor Davis           10   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     130.64   131     133 125 119 133 113
 Madilyn Siana          12   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     124.06   124     125 123 116 103
 Audrey Buckley         11   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     117.14   117     120 114 110 111 114 102
 Kinsley Whitecavage    10   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     109.00   109     109 107 110 105 102 93
 Jaela Jaffe            10   Santiago Corona (SS)   CA     100.37   100     102 97 91 100 89

 Emily Bush             12   Saratoga Springs       NY     150.12   150     149 145 157 146 146 142 145
 Alycia Hart            12   Saratoga Springs       NY     139.49   139     138 138 136 146 128 138
 Anya Belisle           12   Saratoga Springs       NY     134.51   135     136 133 132 132 133 126 130
 Katie Turner           11   Saratoga Springs       NY     119.54   120     119 121 119 121 109 96 105
 Cora Conley            8    Saratoga Springs       NY     116.43   116     115 117 112 123 111 98 93
 Tong Ang               9    Saratoga Springs       NY     115.01   115     93 114 113 124 112 105 103
 Reagan Owen            8    Saratoga Springs       NY     113.56   114     114 107 106 120 115 106 109

 Alexandra Walsh        12   Southlake Carroll      TX     132.02   132     129 131 132 126 134 135 129
 Elizabeth Smits        11   Southlake Carroll      TX     129.20   129     125 132 125 127 129 127 122
 Sarayu Veluri          11   Southlake Carroll      TX     118.39   118     120 118 109 117 116 114 108
 Vanessa Vezga          10   Southlake Carroll      TX     117.73   118     119 111 115 121 107 118 113
 Sylvia Schwedler       12   Southlake Carroll      TX     115.20   115     113 119 108 112 115 106 100
 Charlotte Martin       12   Southlake Carroll      TX     112.51   113     109 114 113 110 106 102 98
 Julia Gassett          12   Southlake Carroll      TX     103.65   104     105 99 100 106 104 103 93

 Abby Downin            10   Tatnall                DE     136.81   137     135 133 140 134 121
 Katie Payne            11   Tatnall                DE     135.79   136     133 132 140 133 125
 Ruby Schwelm           11   Tatnall                DE     133.97   134     134 127 136 132 131
 Carlita Kaliher        12   Tatnall                DE     131.39   131     132 131 129 127 121
 Katrina Endres         12   Tatnall                DE     123.79   124     118 121 126 125 124
 Krissa Woods           8    Tatnall                DE     77.98    78      61 80 76 81
 Addison Schwelm        9    Tatnall                DE     69.73    70      56 71 73 65

 Paige Sheppard         9    Union Catholic         NJ     145.43   145     148 145 141 136 135 141 130
 Courtney Kaiser        12   Union Catholic         NJ     135.70   136     135 137 136 131 132 130 119
 Peyton Hollis          12   Union Catholic         NJ     129.64   130     129 105 137 122 132 122
 Cayleigh Kaiser        9    Union Catholic         NJ     125.74   126     129 121 119 118 121 116
 Kayla Devine           9    Union Catholic         NJ     119.20   119     119 120 110 117 116
 Ella Solorzano         10   Union Catholic         NJ     116.85   117     118 112 119 115 103 107 108
 Emmy O'Hearn           10   Union Catholic         NJ     107.38   107     110 105 104 104 87 99 95

 Jazleen Malherek-Osorio 10  Wayzata                MN     132.51   133     133 133 130 126 125 124 124
 Miley Clark            10   Wayzata                MN     120.65   121     124 119 114 113 109 107 114
 Alyson Kleyman         11   Wayzata                MN     120.55   121     125 112 116 117 116 107 110
 Aubrey Smith           9    Wayzata                MN     113.92   114     115 112 111 114 110 108 107
 Chloe Kissell          10   Wayzata                MN     112.33   112     113 111 108 113 107 100 103
 Julia Link             11   Wayzata                MN     108.55   109     111 106 105 110 100 93 83
 Lulu Knight            12   Wayzata                MN     93.77    94      94 91 95 95 81 78 84

 Katherine Klimek       12   York                   IL     125.69   126     125 127 119 124 125 123
 Margaret Owens         12   York                   IL     125.52   126     127 126 119 120 118 115
 Michaela Quinn         12   York                   IL     124.63   125     126 125 113 121 120 107
 Anna McGrail           12   York                   IL     120.57   121     121 123 112 112 114 106
 Maggie Quinn           10   York                   IL     118.51   119     119 119 106 117 111 103
 Sophia Galiano-Sanchez 10   York                   IL     116.97   117     117 118 111 117 109 106
 GiGi Hill              10   York                   IL     109.86   110     108 113 101 107 107 100